Iran War?

[OttoVonBismarck]

Iran is a big country man, 90 million people, lot of natural resources. Drones are very cheap and easy. I'm not going to say they can make them infinitely, but it only takes a small amount to shut down the Strait.

The ISW report is showing Iran is launching on average around 30 drones a day in the region, and that just isn't very much.

But it's more than enough to scare shippers and insurers from using the waterway.

They also have stuff even simpler than drones like mines--they appear to have avoided using mines much because mines are less intelligent--if they mine lay enough they won't be able to get their own oil to market either. The tight confines of the waterway also mean very simple, like literally shoulder fired munitions, could threaten ships at key choke points. I don't know if that's happened or is even something Iran plans, but the geography of the Strait heavily favors a weaker power that controls the land trying to shut it down.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I would also add that Western nations are terrified of military casualties. We would like wars to be about precision munitions hitting the opponent where it hurts then opponent gives in. That doesn't work too well in a real country (eg Iran or Vietnam) which has a strong ideology and therefore doesn't cave in. We end with an expensive stalemate.

[Norgy]

I am Norwegian, I know how a small confine of a waterway works. 

So, it basically boils down to economic chicken, then. Who will provide the Iranians with chips and stuff they need for drones? A memory stick is like gold these days.

[The Minsky Moment]

Short of moving tectonic plates around, I don't see how one permanently ends Iran's ability to disrupt the strait.

And with Rubio and Co. mulling over a fanciful anabasis to secure and remove massive amounts of nuclear material from multiple sites in the interior of the country, I think we can count out the elimination of the Iran nuclear program as a viable war objective.

If genuine regime change were a US aim - and I doubt it is or ever was - the US has not pursued the means to achieve that and seem very unlikely to do so.

The facts are as they appear - the US is spending billions of dollars and squandering valuable munitions so that the SecDef can self-climax over watching his cool toys hit their targets and so that the WH media team can impress late maturing 12 year olds with their super-cool memes.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I am Norwegian, I know how a small confine of a waterway works. 

So, it basically boils down to economic chicken, then. Who will provide the Iranians with chips and stuff they need for drones? A memory stick is like gold these days.

Russia will just import the drones. Else China will provide them with the materials needed

[Valmy]

My question is at this point how Iran can keep a war up, not with manpower, but with all the materiel you need. Supposedly under a sanction regime, Iran should run out of stuff to send into the air, right?

China and Russia will keep them going.

This war is a godsend to Russia. If I was Putin I would want it to last as long as possible.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yeah, can't they just play call of duty like the other kids?

[OttoVonBismarck]

Short of moving tectonic plates around, I don't see how one permanently ends Iran's ability to disrupt the strait.

And with Rubio and Co. mulling over a fanciful anabasis to secure and remove massive amounts of nuclear material from multiple sites in the interior of the country, I think we can count out the elimination of the Iran nuclear program as a viable war objective.

If genuine regime change were a US aim - and I doubt it is or ever was - the US has not pursued the means to achieve that and seem very unlikely to do so.

The facts are as they appear - the US is spending billions of dollars and squandering valuable munitions so that the SecDef can self-climax over watching his cool toys hit their targets and so that the WH media team can impress late maturing 12 year olds with their super-cool memes.

I'm not in the regime change business, but if I were--I would have started with a long process of funneling arms and trainers to the region to actually stand up some form of armed Iranian resistance. There are Iranian resistance groups and always have been. They are mostly near-disarmed and small. Some of them we have actually added to our own terror list because well, those groups also tend to be pretty unsavory. Unlike in the movies the resistance usually aren't plucky freedom fighters but are typically batshit crazy fucks themselves.

Not that there's really a smart / good path to regime change, but any real path would have at least involved some level of arming internal resistance groups and building out networks to facilitate that. But that also would take more than a few weeks after Trump stroked off and felt like he needed to do this.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Something I never hear seriously considered is just encasing Iran in a giant geodesic dome made of vibranium so it can't send anything out.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Actually Hegseth just said this no longer is a concern:

During his Pentagon press conference on Friday, Pete Hegseth downplayed disruption to the strait of Hormuz, which Iran has closed off. "We have been dealing with it, and don't need to worry about it," the defense secretary said without offering much detail.

[viper37]

So Trump is apparently about to make a speech where he'll say that Iran is just about to surrender?

2200 Marines are being deployed to Iran, they're on ships sailing to Iran right now. Maybe this is related?

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603131206

[viper37]

You may want to worry more about your declining country up north

There is no mass migration movement from North to South.  There is however a massive interest in Americans gaining another citizenship.  Go figure which country is in decline.   

[Legbiter]

So Trump is apparently about to make a speech where he'll say that Iran is just about to surrender?

2200 Marines are being deployed to Iran, they're on ships sailing to Iran right now. Maybe this is related?

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603131206

Sicilian Expedition levels of hubris.

[Sophie Scholl]

There is no mass migration movement from North to South.  There is however a massive interest in Americans gaining another citizenship.  Go figure which country is in decline. 

Speaking of: Any Canadians want to adopt me?   

[Jacob]

Sicilian Expedition levels of hubris.

Depends on what they're going to do, I suppose.

Beef up security on US bases in the region? Seems reasonable.

Some sort of landing in Iran to achieve a crucial objective before withdrawing? Potentially audacious, and potentially not crazy.

Taking and holding the Iranian coast to prevent attacks on Hormuz shipping? They might need a little more than 2 200 marines to pull that off for any length of time.

Thin point of the wedge for taking and holding the Iranian coast to prevent attacks on Hormuz shipping? I guess we should look out for more substantial assets being put into position.