Are we in the opening scenes of a post-apocalyptic movie?

[Admiral Yi]

Since the Greeks  defeated Persia at Salamis. That's a 2,600 year run. Or so.

[HVC]

Until the age of sail everyone* was at most a local power. Some with greater power than others, but local just the same. Weird to see it as a swing back to china being the centre when China wasn't ever the centre, no more then Rome was.But we all know sheilbh's proclivities


*except the mongols, I guess. But they're the exception to every rule

[Zoupa]

Since the Greeks  defeated Persia at Salamis. That's a 2,600 year run. Or so.

He said Atlantic, not European.

[Josquius]

Not something where there's one correct answer. As how do you define it. But in my boom world leader was
???  till mid first millennium BC -  Middle East.
Mid first millennium BC till mid first millennium AD - Europe.
600ish  to 1700ish - China
1700ish till WW2- Europe
WW2 till???? - America

I would say though that even from an Indian or Chinese perspective things are looking very dodgy indeed.
India is really being destroyed by homegrown fascists and China has been backsliding for some time.
Oh sure, when you remember actual food shortages and other such mega poverty then you can forgive a bit of fascism if it gives you an ok quality of life.
But that's not a good thing. Not a sustainable thing.

When we were born there were almost two billion people in extreme poverty. It's now below a billion. That was driven overwhelmingly by China and India. China alone has gone from 90% of people on less than $3 a day when we were born to eliminating extreme poverty, India's less extreme but gone from about 50% to 5%.

I think that is the sort of world historical event of my lifetime - the rest is noise. It's a profound transformation of the lives of hundreds of millions of people and driven by development that is more explosive than the industrial revolution - and, in China, driving the energy transition globally (the number one question on energy is whether India is able to skip the carbon intensive energy stage China had or not - if they can't, then we're all fucked).

And in terms of how that matters in Europe, I've mentioned it before because I find it so interesting. Italy's the most extreme example but it's true across Europe (and I suspect the wider "West"). I can't find the exact stat but when we were born the poorest quintile of Italians were around the 75th percentile globally. At the point covid hit they were about 50th percentile. They're now probably in the bottom half. That's not because they've got poorer in real terms as they haven't. It's the emergence of a new global middle class driven by the rise of Asia - and in part a lot of the disruption we face is the shift in the global middle class and who is in/out of it and subsequntly what people can afford. I think a lot of what we're seeing and interpretingas a local phenomenon is ultimately just a consequence flowing from the end of the Atlantic-centred world, which I think was a temporary aberration in any event.

I don't doubt qualify of life has improved a lot in those countries and that is a good thing.
What concerns me about them is their slide into fascism.
This happening in one country is bad enough.
But happening everywhere.... Real 1984 level potential.

[Admiral Yi]

He said Atlantic, not European.

And Europe is part of the Atlantic ascendancy.

[Zoupa]

He said Atlantic, not European.

And Europe is part of the Atlantic ascendancy.

You can't say it's been 2600 years of Atlantic ascendancy because some Greeks beat some Persians all those years ago. Europe was a backwater until the Renaissance.

[Zoupa]

I mean the whole reason for this forum's existence is because of Europa Universalis. The game starts in the 15th century.

[Admiral Yi]

You can't say it's been 2600 years of Atlantic ascendancy because some Greeks beat some Persians all those years ago. Europe was a backwater until the Renaissance.

Sure I can. Macedonia dominated Asia all the way to India. Rome dominated about the same exent. Then it ebbed with the Arabs and Ottomans, then nothing but from there.

[Josquius]

That was a thousand+ years where Europe ebbed whilst China was really on the rise.
And it was less than a thousand years from Alexander through to the fall of Rome.

[Tonitrus]

The real question is: are we in a comedy, or a tragedy?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The real question is: are we in a comedy, or a tragedy?

A farce

[Zoupa]

You can't say it's been 2600 years of Atlantic ascendancy because some Greeks beat some Persians all those years ago. Europe was a backwater until the Renaissance.

Sure I can. Macedonia dominated Asia all the way to India. Rome dominated about the same exent. Then it ebbed with the Arabs and Ottomans, then nothing but from there.

While I disagree with your characterization, my main quibble is about geography. The age of discovery is what started the Atlantic era, which implies both sides of the ocean being involved.