The Population Decline Thread

[HisMajestyBOB]

Yeah, it's hilarious that the workforces of developed countries will reduce by about half while old farts continue to demand ever greater services. It's going to be great fun.

That should help bring up worker's wages though!
Or we'll see a return of serfdom and indentured servitude.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, it's hilarious that the workforces of developed countries will reduce by about half while old farts continue to demand ever greater services. It's going to be great fun.

But that won't happen for another 150+ years (on current trends), so getting worked up about it seems silly to me. The potential labor force in Europe will decline from the current 58% of the population to 50% in the next 75 years. Declining to 30% will take a long time. You will never see it, nor your children or grandchildren (etc).

We have no idea what the world will be like in 100 years, or whether anyone will be working as we think of it.

You seem to be confusing total population figures with the thing that is worrisome - the collapse in the number of young people entering the workforce.  The only reason total population figures will decline slowl is because life expectancy is increasing dramatically.

Society doesn't work if the vast majority of the population are like old retired people arguing on Languish.

[The Minsky Moment]

We've never experienced such a broad sustained decline in working age population since the industrial revolution so it's hard to predict what will happen.  The countries on the leading edge of demographic decline, like Germany and Japan have not collapsed into insolvency.  But they have experienced stagnating growth, in per capita as well as absolutely.

[Valmy]

Society doesn't work if the vast majority of the population are like old retired people arguing on Languish.

That is my main short term concern. A cultural stagnation and decline as youthful vigor and creativity get rarer would suck.

[Jacob]

That is my main short term concern. A cultural stagnation and decline as youthful vigor and creativity get rarer would suck.

It'll be interesting to see how that is going to work out with the current youthful swing towards the hard right and nationalism

[Valmy]

That is my main short term concern. A cultural stagnation and decline as youthful vigor and creativity get rarer would suck.

It'll be interesting to see how that is going to work out with the current youthful swing towards the hard right and nationalism

It is a swing but still a minority.

[grumbler]

Yeah, it's hilarious that the workforces of developed countries will reduce by about half while old farts continue to demand ever greater services. It's going to be great fun.

But that won't happen for another 150+ years (on current trends), so getting worked up about it seems silly to me. The potential labor force in Europe will decline from the current 58% of the population to 50% in the next 75 years. Declining to 30% will take a long time. You will never see it, nor your children or grandchildren (etc).

We have no idea what the world will be like in 100 years, or whether anyone will be working as we think of it.

You seem to be confusing total population figures with the thing that is worrisome - the collapse in the number of young people entering the workforce.  The only reason total population figures will decline slowl is because life expectancy is increasing dramatically.

Society doesn't work if the vast majority of the population are like old retired people arguing on Languish.

You seem to not be comprehending what I wrote.  The figures I cited are for the potential labor force (i.e. those in the working-age population), not overall pop numbers. The potential labor force number include young people entering the workforce.

If you have numbers that support your contention that there is a pending "collapse" in the number of young people entering the workforce, I can be persuaded that your argument has merit.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, it's hilarious that the workforces of developed countries will reduce by about half while old farts continue to demand ever greater services. It's going to be great fun.

But that won't happen for another 150+ years (on current trends), so getting worked up about it seems silly to me. The potential labor force in Europe will decline from the current 58% of the population to 50% in the next 75 years. Declining to 30% will take a long time. You will never see it, nor your children or grandchildren (etc).

We have no idea what the world will be like in 100 years, or whether anyone will be working as we think of it.

You seem to be confusing total population figures with the thing that is worrisome - the collapse in the number of young people entering the workforce.  The only reason total population figures will decline slowl is because life expectancy is increasing dramatically.

Society doesn't work if the vast majority of the population are like old retired people arguing on Languish.

You seem to not be comprehending what I wrote.  The figures I cited are for the potential labor force (i.e. those in the working-age population), not overall pop numbers. The potential labor force number include young people entering the workforce.

If you have numbers that support your contention that there is a pending "collapse" in the number of young people entering the workforce, I can be persuaded that your argument has merit.

If you read my posts, I am not talking about total labour force. I am talking about the the number of people entering the labour force.

If you mix that number up with total labour force you end up with a number that ignores the fact that the only reason they total labour force numbers remain fairly stable is because people are living and working longer.

The collapse and population is the collapse in the number of young people. Not the number of people who are growing older and older due to the miracles of medical science.

[Tamas]

A thought: we do not get to worry about BOTH the decline of young people entering the workforce, and AI destroying most of the jobs. If these both happens at a mass scale it'll even out, surely. White collar jobs will be done by AI while there'll be such a lack of chefs and carpenters that they'll get white collar wages

[Jacob]

Possibly yeah. It's interesting times for sure.

[PJL]

A thought: we do not get to worry about BOTH the decline of young people entering the workforce, and AI destroying most of the jobs. If these both happens at a mass scale it'll even out, surely. White collar jobs will be done by AI while there'll be such a lack of chefs and carpenters that they'll get white collar wages

The latter could accelerate the former. Lack of high quality jobs and income caused by AI will make it harder to have kids on a decent income. To be honest automation and outsourcing has probably already been a factor in declining birth rates in the last 20 years.

[The Minsky Moment]

A thought: we do not get to worry about BOTH the decline of young people entering the workforce, and AI destroying most of the jobs. If these both happens at a mass scale it'll even out, surely. White collar jobs will be done by AI while there'll be such a lack of chefs and carpenters that they'll get white collar wages

'

I doubt the timing will work out that cleanly.
I see little evidence of declining labor demand in the aggregate because of AI.  Some sectoral shifts maybe.

What will happen is declining working pop will generate more incentive to substitute capital for labor and automate. How well that works depends on the effectiveness of the capital allocation.  More reason to watch how that trillion dollar + AI investment pans out.

[Razgovory]

A thought: we do not get to worry about BOTH the decline of young people entering the workforce, and AI destroying most of the jobs. If these both happens at a mass scale it'll even out, surely. White collar jobs will be done by AI while there'll be such a lack of chefs and carpenters that they'll get white collar wages

It has to do with the types of jobs being destroyed and the jobs being created.  The types of jobs being destroyed are jobs people go to college for.  The jobs being created are low-paying jobs taking care of the elderly.  Wiping asses and cleaning bathrooms is never going to pay well, and people who spent four years getting degrees in engineering and computer science are going to be resentful working those jobs.