What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

I think narco groups have been listed as terrorists by the US for a while. It also doesn't strike me as a million miles from the Obama-era expansion of drone warfare - to an extent this seems like those policies flowing through.

Definitely seems like the rhetoric from the administration, throughout the term, has been backsliding towards the "everybody we don't like is a terrorist and doesn't deserve legal protections" approach that was popular in the immediate aftermath of September 11th.

[Syt]

Isn't he also try to tie Maduro into the Tren de Aragua business?

[crazy canuck]

I feel like the next step will be - and I wonder at what point this happens - basically viewing Latin American sovereignty as as disposable to Trump as, say, Yemen's or Pakistan's.

That would be a return to US policy of days gone by

[Sheilbh]

US 30 year bonds touched 5%.

UK 30 year bonds been hitting the highest levels since the late 90s in recent weeks. I think France and Italy also appear to be spiking. In all cases there are specific reasons.

I meant to post about this in the UK thread because there's also a structural change which is causing a problem for government finance - and I assume this is probably starting to happen everywhere (or at least everywhere that did pension reform of one type or other).

But I've seen some finance people comment on an emerging problem for government financing debt of falling and insufficient demand for long term debt. Basically because the defined benefit pension funds don't need them as much any more and as a class of buyer are starting to decline quite rapidly. And defined contribution pension funds rely less on government bonds.of defined benefit pension funds in the gilts market (and I assume Treasuries) is starting to decline quite rapidly. There's no direct replacement in the market so from what I've read the expectation is that you're likely to see more shorter term debt and it's more likely to be potentially flighty buyers (certainly in the case of the UK - long term debt was often bought by UK pension funds, the shorter term stuff is far more international and, yeah, far more flighty/trigger happy).

Edit: In particular I'm not a big fan of the critique that Western/democratic governments thinking in short term electoral cycle (as much as anything, I think it massively underestimates the short-term pressures in every other system too). But I do slightly wonder what the impact of a decline in long-term government debt will be on policy/politics as I think it's one of those wiring/subterranean issues that doesn't seem relevant but I think could matter quite a lot in structuring the way governments can act.

[The Minsky Moment]

Any other presidential administration before this one, even Bush or the first Trump term, and I would have reasonable faith that some reliable process was used to assess a reasonably high level of confidence that the ship was really what was claimed.  I have no faith in this one; outrageous deceit is just standard practice in Trumpland.  I believe that there still are some competent and honest people left in the Pentagon and the intel agencies, but their assessments are being filtered through decisionmakers that are an all-star rouges gallery of mendacity.  I have zero faith in a decisional process led by Pete Hegseth's hair gel, Tambov Tulsi, John the Rat, and Stephen "Not the Band" Miller.  I mean it COULD be the boat was filled with Tren de Aragua drug smugglers, but it just as well could be anything else.

Assuming the strike was legit, it still seems like a fault worse than a crime.  I don't like the continuing expansion of the "terrorism" label to generically refer to any bad guy, which waters down the terms and renders it meaningless but with the side effect of eroding civil liberties, as virtually any law enforcement activity can seize the extraordinary powers that go with fighting terrorism.  I also think that a nation whose core interests are so heavily linked with free passage of the seas should be VERY careful setting precedents that lower the threshold for use of lethal force on the high seas without a state of war.

[Razgovory]

US 30 year bonds touched 5%.

I'm guessing that isn't good.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

I think this is the guiding principle of the regime right now, both in foreign and domestic affairs:



Of course, that meme comes from the era I'm worried we're falling back to...

[Razgovory]

Any other presidential administration before this one, even Bush or the first Trump term, and I would have reasonable faith that some reliable process was used to assess a reasonably high level of confidence that the ship was really what was claimed.  I have no faith in this one; outrageous deceit is just standard practice in Trumpland.  I believe that there still are some competent and honest people left in the Pentagon and the intel agencies, but their assessments are being filtered through decisionmakers that are an all-star rouges gallery of mendacity.  I have zero faith in a decisional process led by Pete Hegseth's hair gel, Tambov Tulsi, John the Rat, and Stephen "Not the Band" Miller.  I mean it COULD be the boat was filled with Tren de Aragua drug smugglers, but it just as well could be anything else.

Assuming the strike was legit, it still seems like a fault worse than a crime.  I don't like the continuing expansion of the "terrorism" label to generically refer to any bad guy, which waters down the terms and renders it meaningless but with the side effect of eroding civil liberties, as virtually any law enforcement activity can seize the extraordinary powers that go with fighting terrorism.  I also think that a nation whose core interests are so heavily linked with free passage of the seas should be VERY careful setting precedents that lower the threshold for use of lethal force on the high seas without a state of war.

I agree with all of this.  I miss Bush.  Bush did terrible things sometimes, but at least he a plan and a reason for what he was doing.  It might be poorly justified reason and a stupid plan, but he had a goal.  There was supposed to be some positive outcome to whatever terrible thing he was doing.  Trump just does stuff for the lols and trolling the libs.  Now we are just killing people at sea.  I have no idea what this is suppose to accomplish.

[Jacob]

Trump does things for reasons too. The reasons are:

• It makes him feel important and powerful, the best.
• There's a way he gets kickbacks.
• Someone convinced him it'll make him look cool.

[The Minsky Moment]

4.  Anything to distract from the Kanna-Massie Epstein victims press conference.

[Sheilbh]

And don't forget spite.

[crazy canuck]

US 30 year bonds touched 5%.

I'm guessing that isn't good.

No, really quite bad for a number of reasons.  Sheilbh is correct that long term bonds are rising in other countries as well, but the American treasury bonds have historically been immune to what vexes other markets.  The reason is US bonds have been the gold standard of reliability and security.

That is no longer the situation.

[PJL]

US 30 year bonds touched 5%.

I'm guessing that isn't good.

No, really quite bad for a number of reasons.  Sheilbh is correct that long term bonds are rising in other countries as well, but the American treasury bonds have historically been immune to what vexes other markets.  The reason is US bonds have been the gold standard of reliability and security.

US 30 year bonds touched 5%.

I'm guessing that isn't good.

No, really quite bad for a number of reasons.  Sheilbh is correct that long term bonds are rising in other countries as well, but the American treasury bonds have historically been immune to what vexes other markets.  The reason is US bonds have been the gold standard of reliability and security.

That is no longer the situation.

That is no longer the situation.

Yep, gold is the new (old) gold standard now.

[Razgovory]

And don't forget spite.

I think this pretty much has it covered.

[Razgovory]

4.  Anything to distract from the Kanna-Massie Epstein victims press conference.

A lot of Democrats think these Epstein files are going to reveal that Trump is child rapist, but I seriously doubt it.  What it will reveal, and what we already know, is that Trump and everyone else knew that Epstein was a creep and just didn't care.  People have a hard time turning on their friends, and when that friend is rich and powerful they certainly aren't going to unless they have a very good reason.