What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[DGuller]

The vast majority of black voters went against Trump.

The other question is whether we need an explanation other than that poor white voters, despite relying on the very government programs that the GOP are gutting, are so gullible that they will vote for the party that screws them and potentially ruins their family's economic future, just to show off their contempt for urban liberals and the horrifying prospect that somewhere in the nation, a trans woman is competing in a high school women's track meet.

I think the answer to your question is in your question.  You use the word "gullible".  Maybe they vote against you because you don't respect them, that you hold them in contempt.

Wow Raz you completely missed the point.  My question was entirely rhetorical - I was rejecting that entire line of reasoning.  My point is that *your* argument - which presumes that white heartland voters are voting for programs harmful to their interest simply as a means for expressing rejection of imagined coastal elites - entails precisely the assumption of gullibility you understandably find offensive.  I find it offensive as well, but I DONT AGREE with that entire narrative.

It's only gullible if you assume that economic interests are all that should matter to voters.  Even in personal life, I don't think too many people would be happy if their material needs are taken care of, but they feel disdained and excluded.

[Valmy]

Even in personal life, I don't think too many people would be happy if their material needs are taken care of, but they feel disdained and excluded.

 

There is just no pleasing some people.

I mean obviously there is more than material needs that matter to me, but we are talking about politics. Public government shit. Generally yeah I want the government to help establish a prosperous and safe community and then get out of the way. But most people want something different?

[The Minsky Moment]

It's only gullible if you assume that economic interests are all that should matter to voters.  Even in personal life, I don't think too many people would be happy if their material needs are taken care of, but they feel disdained and excluded.

I assume economic interests are important for most voters, and that they matter in particular for people under economic stress, i.e. a majority of Americans today.  I assume that while many Americans have opinions on questions like trans rights (to take one example highlighted by Trump and his circle), that for the majority of Americans that are not trans themselves, it is not the primary issue of concern in their own lives. And I presume that even for those Americans who want to restrict trans rights and who have negative views about "coastal elites" that champion such causes, their zeal to express that view is not the most critical criteria in deciding their overall political stance. If I am wrong in those assumptions, I'm wrong.

More generally, I question the usual mode of analysis in US politics, which in the face of the regular pendulum swing of the medium-term political cycle, overinterprets the significance of the last election. When the Obama coalition crushed all before it, we were told America had entered a new post-racial future, and that the Democrats were cementing a new, permanent majority.  When Trump won, the focus swung to the "Hillbilly elegy" class of the forgotten heartland, ravaged by opioids.  Then Biden won decisively (7 million vote majority) and Trump seemingly imploded, the narrative shifted again to treating Trump as a deviant episode.  Then Trump eked by Harris (2 million vote majority) and the narrative is again of massive and tectonic shifts in public opinion. 

AFAIK the polling mostly indicates incremental shifts from cycle to cycle in partisan turnout rates and a small floating group of mostly low info swing voters penduluming back and forth.  It's a weak factual base on which to build political grand narratives.

Raz is correct to attach some significance to the fact that Black voting for Democratic Presidential candidates has gone from 90+% to 80%.  But there are dozens of possible explanations for that, not taking into account the likelihood that more than one factor is contributing at the same time.  Raz is certain that it has to do with Democratic activists being too liberal, or something something Gaza. Personally, I suspect it has a lot more to do with the internal dynamics of an evolving population, grouped under a complex and changing sense of identity.  I am more certain that neither of us really has a clue and we are just guessing.

[HVC]

The GOP didn't even necessarily run on things like anti trans movement, as far as a I can tell. They ran on dems want to put men in girls teams and bathrooms, but we care about giving you cheaper eggs. So they still won on an economics push. they are just much better at lying about it than the dems. And that's their true skill, they haven't forgotten how to be politicians. Promise the people what they want. Delivering it is optional. In this case, and in most cases, people want more affordable lives. The average person doesn't care about who wears a dress or who doesn't, they care about feeding their family. That's why blacks and Hispanic votes increased. Because they're also in the poorest demographics. For various reasons dems have stoped carrying about economic matters of the lower caste, but I don't know why they forgot how to lie about it.

[Valmy]

For various reasons dems have stoped carrying about economic matters of the lower caste, but I don't know why they forgot how to lie about it.

Because when they do it, they sound like socialists. But I guess we will see if this dude who just won in New York was lying about it. He obviously doesn't give a damn about sounding like a socialist.

Of course he has to actually win the election for Mayor first for us to find out.

[HVC]

This the guy beating Cuomo? I know nothing about him, and only found out about him yesterday good luck to him.

[DGuller]

Good luck to NYC.

[The Minsky Moment]

Right how there is furious lobbying going on the Senate.

The biggest private equity firms in the world are massive investors on private credit - nonbank lending to businesses on a large scale.  They have a simple ask: they don't want to pay any taxes on these lucrative investments. Why - because they don't want to.  Taxes are for little people.

Trump's budget bill gives them the tax exemption. It's in the House bill. It's not in the current Senate draft, but the lobbyists are working overtime to get it back in.

This is as glaring a clear economic tradeoff as one sees in politics.  Critical funding taken from the sick, the poor, and from public schools so that Wall Street's most powerful firms and their billionaire managers and shareholders can get a $10 billion tax exemption.  This is what the Trump GOP stands for, it's what the GOP has stood for since the Reagan years.  It's the reality of what Trumpian politics really means.

I don't know whether from the perspective of optimal positioning, the Democrats are too left or not left enough, too populist or not populist enough.  I know the leadership is kind of crappy, I know I'm low on ideas how to fix that.  But none of this should matter.  What Trump and the GOP really stand for and are creating here and now is so execrable it should reject itself.

[The Minsky Moment]

Good luck to NYC.

Well we dodged Cuomo and Adams will be out, so at least corruption will be down.

[Valmy]

This the guy beating Cuomo? I know nothing about him, and only found out about him yesterday good luck to him.

The Dems running the corrupt and disgraced former governor is such a Democratic thing to do. Imagine a guy actually addressing issues people care about and not being totally discredited winning votes? Maybe the mainstream party should try it at some point.

[HVC]

Right how there is furious lobbying going on the Senate.

The biggest private equity firms in the world are massive investors on private credit - nonbank lending to businesses on a large scale.  They have a simple ask: they don't want to pay any taxes on these lucrative investments. Why - because they don't want to.  Taxes are for little people.

Trump's budget bill gives them the tax exemption. It's in the House bill. It's not in the current Senate draft, but the lobbyists are working overtime to get it back in.

This is as glaring a clear economic tradeoff as one sees in politics.  Critical funding taken from the sick, the poor, and from public schools so that Wall Street's most powerful firms and their billionaire managers and shareholders can get a $10 billion tax exemption.  This is what the Trump GOP stands for, it's what the GOP has stood for since the Reagan years.  It's the reality of what Trumpian politics really means.

I don't know whether from the perspective of optimal positioning, the Democrats are too left or not left enough, too populist or not populist enough.  I know the leadership is kind of crappy, I know I'm low on ideas how to fix that.  But none of this should matter.  What Trump and the GOP really stand for and are creating here and now is so execrable it should reject itself.

The average person doesn't understand any of that though. They understand easy slogans and empty promises.

[HVC]

This the guy beating Cuomo? I know nothing about him, and only found out about him yesterday good luck to him.

The Dems running the corrupt and disgraced former governor is such a Democratic thing to do. Imagine a guy actually addressing issues people care about and not being totally discredited winning votes? Maybe the mainstream party should try it at some point.

He's Muslim too, I just read , so so people are probably doubly annoyed about him.


*edit* and was an amateur rapper

[Valmy]

This the guy beating Cuomo? I know nothing about him, and only found out about him yesterday good luck to him.

The Dems running the corrupt and disgraced former governor is such a Democratic thing to do. Imagine a guy actually addressing issues people care about and not being totally discredited winning votes? Maybe the mainstream party should try it at some point.

He's Muslim too, I just read , so so people are probably doubly annoyed about him.


*edit* and was an amateur rapper

I don't know how religious he is, but he and his wife sure present as very secular people.

But yeah that Muslim thing might be an albatross.

The fact he is actually young enough for being an amateur rapper to be an age appropriate thing for him to have done is refreshing.

[viper37]

This the guy beating Cuomo? I know nothing about him, and only found out about him yesterday good luck to him.

The Dems running the corrupt and disgraced former governor is such a Democratic thing to do. Imagine a guy actually addressing issues people care about and not being totally discredited winning votes? Maybe the mainstream party should try it at some point.

He's Muslim too, I just read , so so people are probably doubly annoyed about him.


*edit* and was an amateur rapper

NYC mayoral campaign first.

It's of course going to flip some switches on Truth social.

But the final meltdown is going to come when he eventually announces a governor or senatorial campaign.  Then, things will be ugly.  The king of shit slinging the Cuomo campaign directed at him would be nothing in comparison.

Republicans will be going insane with a Muslim campaigning for an important position.  House is difficult enough to accept to accept, but Senator or Governor of a big State in this climate, ouf.  And a socialist...

[Valmy]

But the final meltdown is going to come when he eventually announces a governor or senatorial campaign.  Then, things will be ugly.  The king of shit slinging the Cuomo campaign directed at him would be nothing in comparison.

Republicans will be going insane with a Muslim campaigning for an important position.  House is difficult enough to accept to accept, but Senator or Governor of a big State in this climate, ouf.  And a socialist...

Well first he has to win the general election and then do a good job as mayor. So let's see him do that before we worry about how insane Republicans will rip him. Coming out of being Mayor of New York with a great record of success is no easy task.

But look Republicans lost their damn minds over Joe Biden who was a devout Catholic and whose views were as mainstream as you can get. It really doesn't matter if we run a Christian preacher or a trans anarchist satanist, they will equally lose their minds. I am not worried about trying to find somebody they will be less able to smear, they are perfectly capable of making anybody sound like a Marxist Muslim. I would prefer we focus on finding people the voters like, not who Republicans might hate less.