German Federal Election 23rd February 2025

[Syt]

To keep it simple: Everyone who wins a seat via direct vote (1st vote) gets in (FPTP), regardless of party result. The second vote is for the per-state party lists and determine how many seats total a party gets.

E.g. say Hamburg gets 100 seats (made up number), and 45% go to SPD based on 2nd vote. Let's further say SPD has won 30 direct votes. that means that 15 of those seats are filled from the party's remaining list of candidates, starting at the top (which is why ranking your candidates is important).

If you gain more direct mandates (1st vote) than you would based on 2nd vote (say you win 10 direct races, but would only get 8 seats per 2nd vote, or fail the 5% margin), then your won races still count and get into parliament. To deal with the mismatch (putting it very simple - had to learn it in communal law and it's "fun" ) you expand parliament until the seats you gained by winning FPTP races matches the seats you would gain on percentage. There's usually a few such seats each period which means the parliament size fluctuates, but it seems to be a good enough solution.

[Sheilbh]

But you misunderstand it: Voting with the AfD is not the problem. It only becomes a problem when you cannot find sufficient support for your policy among the democratic parties and have to rely on the fascists to pass a law. If the AfD votes for something that has already sufficient support from other parties, it is gone if they join.

Thank you for removing the slander

But I still don't get how that works - aren't you in effect ceding almost a reverse veto power to the AfD?

So there's an issue with say 50%+ public support for x policy. For good, principled, left-wing reasons the SPD, Greens and Die Linke oppose it. So the CDU - and mainstream politics - in effect can't do x. Isn't you basically giving the AfD the ability to monopolise that issue (with 50%+ support)? I mean to me that just seems to give them vastly too much power for a minority party to dictate politics but also it plays into their narrative.

Obviously practically you couldn't do that with a coalition deal with the other parties (and I fully get not having them in a coalition). So you can't address that issue under a coalition agreement - but I think you have to acknowledge that is creating space and opportunity for the AfD so need to have a solution to address it.

[Zanza]

To keep it simple: Everyone who wins a seat via direct vote (1st vote) gets in (FPTP), regardless of party result. The second vote is for the per-state party lists and determine how many seats total a party gets.

E.g. say Hamburg gets 100 seats (made up number), and 45% go to SPD based on 2nd vote. Let's further say SPD has won 30 direct votes. that means that 15 of those seats are filled from the party's remaining list of candidates, starting at the top (which is why ranking your candidates is important).

If you gain more direct mandates (1st vote) than you would based on 2nd vote (say you win 10 direct races, but would only get 8 seats per 2nd vote, or fail the 5% margin), then your won races still count and get into parliament. To deal with the mismatch (putting it very simple - had to learn it in communal law and it's "fun" ) you expand parliament until the seats you gained by winning FPTP races matches the seats you would gain on percentage. There's usually a few such seats each period which means the parliament size fluctuates, but it seems to be a good enough solution.

That was the rule until 2021. They changed it. Not all constituency winners get a mandate anymore. You have to win and be highly placed on your party list. My constituency now has no representation, neither via direct mandate, nor via list. This time, only CDU and AfD were affected. That's whysmong all pressing issues, CDU considers electoral reform the top priority. 

[Zanza]

But you misunderstand it: Voting with the AfD is not the problem. It only becomes a problem when you cannot find sufficient support for your policy among the democratic parties and have to rely on the fascists to pass a law. If the AfD votes for something that has already sufficient support from other parties, it is gone if they join.

Thank you for removing the slander

But I still don't get how that works - aren't you in effect ceding almost a reverse veto power to the AfD?

So there's an issue with say 50%+ public support for x policy. For good, principled, left-wing reasons the SPD, Greens and Die Linke oppose it. So the CDU - and mainstream politics - in effect can't do x. Isn't you basically giving the AfD the ability to monopolise that issue (with 50%+ support)? I mean to me that just seems to give them vastly too much power for a minority party to dictate politics but also it plays into their narrative.

Obviously practically you couldn't do that with a coalition deal with the other parties (and I fully get not having them in a coalition). So you can't address that issue under a coalition agreement - but I think you have to acknowledge that is creating space and opportunity for the AfD so need to have a solution to address it.

The idea is to find a compromise in your coalition. If you can't, end the coalition or shelve the issue. The limit on political options is the point of system. It drives consensus.

There is no concept of minority government and looking for votes on each particular issue. It theoretically works, but there is almost no chance to pass a budget then.

[Syt]

To keep it simple: Everyone who wins a seat via direct vote (1st vote) gets in (FPTP), regardless of party result. The second vote is for the per-state party lists and determine how many seats total a party gets.

E.g. say Hamburg gets 100 seats (made up number), and 45% go to SPD based on 2nd vote. Let's further say SPD has won 30 direct votes. that means that 15 of those seats are filled from the party's remaining list of candidates, starting at the top (which is why ranking your candidates is important).

If you gain more direct mandates (1st vote) than you would based on 2nd vote (say you win 10 direct races, but would only get 8 seats per 2nd vote, or fail the 5% margin), then your won races still count and get into parliament. To deal with the mismatch (putting it very simple - had to learn it in communal law and it's "fun" ) you expand parliament until the seats you gained by winning FPTP races matches the seats you would gain on percentage. There's usually a few such seats each period which means the parliament size fluctuates, but it seems to be a good enough solution.

That was the rule until 2021. They changed it. Not all constituency winners get a mandate anymore. You have to win and be highly placed on your party list. My constituency now has no representation, neither via direct mandate, nor via list. This time, only CDU and AfD were affected. That's whysmong all pressing issues, CDU considers electoral reform the top priority. 

Heh. I remember when my district was represented by SPD (Cornelie Wolgast-Sonntag) via direct vote, plus CDU (Dietrich Austermann) and FDP (Jürgen Koppelin) who all ran in my district in 2002, with the losers getting in through their party lists.

[Zanza]

With every passing day, it becomes clearer  that Merz, the opposition campaigner with a populist streak and societal views from the 80s is unable to switch into a consensus-building role to woo the progressive social democrats into a coalition. He lacks empathy, humility, respect. It is not obvious what he has to offer to the social democrats.

I fear there will be no coalition anytime soon, if ever.

[Jacob]

If he fails to bring the SDP on board, and he's rejected the AfD, what are the other possible outcomes?

[Zanza]

Nothing, that's the two options. Minority government theoretically, but he won't be able to pass any laws, especially a budget.

[Admiral Yi]

What happens if no budget passes?

[Valmy]

Nothing, that's the two options. Minority government theoretically, but he won't be able to pass any laws, especially a budget.

Well maybe that is why he wants to try to find some common ground with the AfD so he can count on their votes on some things.

Fuck.

[Zanza]

Not passing a budget is not as critical as the shutdowns you have in the US. All existing legal obligations must be honoured by the state, e.g. salaries, debt service, all social state expenditures etc.

But there cannot be new discretionary spending without a budget.

Article 111
[Interim budget management]

(1) If, by the end of a fiscal year, the budget for the following year has not been adopted by a law, the Federal Government, until such law comes into force, may make all expenditures that are necessary:

(a)  to maintain institutions established by a law and to carry out measures authorised by a law;

(b)  to meet the legal obligations of the Federation;

(c)  to continue construction projects, procurements and the provision of other benefits or services or to continue to make grants for these purposes, to the extent that amounts have already been appropriated in the budget of a previous year.

(2) To the extent that revenues based upon specific laws and derived from taxes or duties or other sources or the working capital reserves do not cover the expenditures referred to in paragraph (1) of this Article, the Federal Government may borrow the funds necessary to sustain current operations up to a maximum of one quarter of the total amount of the previous budget.

If there is no majority for any person to be chancellor in parliament, the constitution allows the president to dissolve parliament and trigger new general elections.

Which is not a solution now, because that would just repeat the current result probably with even more votes for extremists on left and right.

Article 63
[Election of the Federal Chancellor]

(1) The Federal Chancellor shall be elected by the Bundestag without debate on the proposal of the Federal President.

(2) The person who receives the votes of a majority of the Members of the Bundestag shall be elected. The person elected shall be appointed by the Federal President.

(3) If the person proposed by the Federal President is not elected, the Bundestag may elect a Federal Chancellor within fourteen days after the ballot by the votes of more than one half of its Members.

(4) If no Federal Chancellor is elected within this period, a new election shall take place without delay, in which the person who receives the largest number of votes shall be elected. If the person elected receives the votes of a majority of the Members of the Bundestag, the Federal President must appoint him within seven days after the election. If the person elected does not receive such a majority, then within seven days the Federal President shall either appoint him or dissolve the Bundestag.

[Admiral Yi]

An excellent way of doing things.

[The Minsky Moment]

That's what happens when the word for "debt" is the same as the word for "guilt"

[Admiral Yi]

he he