The Big Picture - Where's the world going?

[The Brain]

I saw a claim that Teump is giving the EU three weeks to agree to his Ukraine deal or he withdraws troops from Europe.

Of course, others have said there are no intention to withdraw.

Exciting times, that's for sure.

US troops being withdrawn voluntarily seems great. We don't need fifth columnists in the coming war.

It's better to have no friend than a friend who is a traitor. It's better to have no lifeboat than a broken lifeboat.

[Barrister]

I saw a claim that Teump is giving the EU three weeks to agree to his Ukraine deal or he withdraws troops from Europe.

Of course, others have said there are no intention to withdraw.

Exciting times, that's for sure.

This is as if your partner threatens you that they're going to leave you if you don't do X.

Now look - if X is something you know you should be doing anyways, that might be something.

But if it's "We're going for vacation in Mexico or I'm leaving" the relationship is over.  They will continue to pull that threat over and over until it's a demand you can no longer tolerate.

[Valmy]

US troops being withdrawn voluntarily seems great. We don't need fifth columnists in the coming war.

It's better to have no friend than a friend who is a traitor. It's better to have no lifeboat than a broken lifeboat.

And having the Slovaks and Hungarians around is bad enough.

[Zanza]

I saw a claim that Teump is giving the EU three weeks to agree to his Ukraine deal or he withdraws troops from Europe.

Of course, others have said there are no intention to withdraw.

Exciting times, that's for sure.

Bye.

[Jacob]

Bye.

Yeah I don't see Europe conceding on this.

It'll be interesting to see if this is a real ultimatum and whether there'll be follow through, whether it was a trial balloon, or whether it's full on misinformation.

[Zanza]

Is there even any deal under discussion?

I only read news about Americans surrendering to Russia. Very bad, but what can the EU contribute to this American sell out?

[Josephus]

Is there even any deal under discussion?

I only read news about Americans surrendering to Russia. Very bad, but what can the EU contribute to this American sell out?

Euro leaders are visiting HRH Trump in the near future; I imagine there will be a lot of curtsies and kowtowing.

[grumbler]

I saw a claim that Teump is giving the EU three weeks to agree to his Ukraine deal or he withdraws troops from Europe.

Of course, others have said there are no intention to withdraw.

Exciting times, that's for sure.

What deal is this that they are supposed to accept?  I smell an overly-dramatic MEP.

[Sheilbh]

Euro leaders are visiting HRH Trump in the near future; I imagine there will be a lot of curtsies and kowtowing.

Duda is first going tonight I believe, Starmer next week, Macron the week after. I imagine very coordinated (with lots of consultation) at the European level. It certainly doesn't seem like an accident that the three leaders going are all from countries that meet the current NATO target and can be said to take defence reasonably seriously.

Then obviously St Patrick's Day so the Taoiseach and Tanaiste will be at the White House.

[Norgy]

"Hail the king, please don't be a massive dick, your majesty!". 

[Threviel]

I've been thinking for a while about what's happened and why and this is my stream of consciousness attempt at finding some kind of explanation.

History goes in cycles as we all know, after some time there's often a reaction taking society in a different direction. The strength of the reaction is often based on how far back it needs to react. French absolutism leads to French revolution leads to absolutism leads to constitutional monarchy, extreme example, but can be seen as something a sinus curve mellowing out. Trudeau for a long time in Canada leads to unpopularity leads to not-Trudeau and so on. There are lots of examples and probably lots of counter-examples.

Back in the day Keynes noticed this behaviour in economics and the answer is that we mellow out the tops of the economic sinus wave, we have "filters" making the extremes of economics mellow out and as a thanks for that we haven't had a new depression like 30's one. These sinus waves could probably best be seen as overtones on a general upwards curve.

Society is obviously very complex and cannot be easily described as a sinus curve, but rather as untold amounts of curves acting as overtones on each-other. But one can perhaps se societal development as an aggregate of a lot of curves coalescing into some kind of curve.

The political parties in their views acted as some kind of overtone on the general developmental curve. If you asked a conservative French politician in 1949 whether he wanted women to vote he might say no, but unlike conservative 1820's politician he would not want a return of serfdom. If you asked him in 1989 he would not be against women voting. The general curve had moved, but the different parties still acted as some kind of wave around it.

Look at the 18th and 19th century, middle classes were growing and the populations were more and more demanding political representation. In France it led to the revolution, in the UK progressive reforms mellowed out the excesses in the developmental curve and we all know what happened.

But why was there a revolution in France? It seems that the democratic consensus moved in a different direction from the ruling elite. The consensus wanted political representation and the ruling elite did not want that to happen. In the end the sides were too far apart and a compromise could not be reached and bam, revolution.

But why not in the UK? The consensus moved in the exact same direction as in France, but the ruling elite moved with the curve, compromising just enough to not break the trust too much and fizzle, no revolution.

This development continued into the 21st century. The curve seems to have followed some kind of democratic consensus. Most everyone agreed that, yes, women should vote, we should be democratic, we should have a market economy, we should have state sponsored education and something of a welfare state and so on.

But then something happened. Immigration is a good example. Consensus, as far as I have been able to gather data, seems to always have been that we don't want immigration. Take your poor, tired masses yearning to breathe free and please stay away and so on. For decades the political elite has had a radically different view from the democratic consensus. In itself the issue has not been important enough to warrant the main curve to move very much. Until it became too much.

It really remains to be seen how much the consensus has moved from the political establishment. I don't really think it has moved much enough to warrant fear of violent revolution, the size of the extreme parties on the right seem to flatten out at around 20, perhaps up to 30 per cent. It's really up to the political systems to see if they can adjust to the new reality. In the US the system has obviously failed, but that's the only place where that's happened. Meloni is not making a fool of herself for example.

There's probably lots of other development aside from immigration with the same pattern, woeness, gay rights or whatever, but I don't know the issues enough to say anything about them.

But the political elite needs to get back on the consensus wave, the problems of immigration need to be handled of we don't want the adjustment to be too hard, because where the will of the people want to go it will go.

I don't know if this incoherent babbler makes any sense what so ever, just an attempt to crystallise my thoughts.

[Zoupa]

The russians are currently attacking with men on crutches and literal donkeys for resupply. They're sending chinese golf carts into minefields. The idea that Europe can't do anything about the russians without the US is utterly fanciful.

The frontlines have not moved significantly in 2 years. They have 5 times the population of Ukraine and still can't advance. The world has consistently underrated Ukrainians' brilliance and willingness to sacrifice.

If the EU can get some artillery and mortar ammunition factories going, the russians will never advance again. If sanctions are kept on by the US, russian lines WILL collapse within 2 years. Then we're back to 2013 borders (and probable civil war in russia but not our problem).

[mongers]

The russians are currently attacking with men on crutches and literal donkeys for resupply. They're sending chinese golf carts into minefields. The idea that Europe can't do anything about the russians without the US is utterly fanciful.

The frontlines have not moved significantly in 2 years. They have 5 times the population of Ukraine and still can't advance. The world has consistently underrated Ukrainians' brilliance and willingness to sacrifice.

If the EU can get some artillery and mortar ammunition factories going, the russians will never advance again. If sanctions are kept on by the US, russian lines WILL collapse within 2 years. Then we're back to 2013 borders (and probable civil war in russia but not our problem).

Just because Trump is a Class 1A wanker, doesn't mean European need to despair.

[Neil]

If the EU can get some artillery and mortar ammunition factories going, the russians will never advance again.

Unfortunately, it's too late.  Those things take time to set up, even if you had the money. 

If sanctions are kept on by the US,

And that's the other problem.  They won't. 

[Valmy]

Unfortunately, it's too late.  Those things take time to set up, even if you had the money. 

Won't be too late for next time if you set it up today.