What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Zanza]

https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/

We estimate the 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10 percent tariffs on China proposed to go into effect as early as February 1, 2025, would shrink economic output by 0.4 percent and increase taxes by $1.2 trillion between 2025 and 2034 on a conventional basis, amounting to an average tax increase of more than $830 per US household in 2025. The tariffs on Canada and Mexico alone would increase taxes by $958 billion between 2025 and 2034 on a conventional basis, amounting to an average tax increase of more than $670 per US household in 2025.

What a silly policy. Too bad it hurts non-Americans too.

[Valmy]

Well they did promise short term pain. I guess that is before the tariffs create all the high paying jobs.

The weird part is that I always thought in a scenario where the US went full protectionist, where we would make fortress America and stop relying on Asia and Europe for goods that would at least involve turning the US-Canada-Mexico into a protected trade block.

Attempting to establish big trade barriers with our biggest trade partners, and most friendly nations, is just wild. Even from a hardline protectionist perspective.

I don't know

[Crazy_Ivan80]

if the oligarchs want to make the world more receptive to autocracies of any kind they do need to destroy the democratic blocks standing in their way. That does mean fucking up relations with friends and allies. So I fully expect the US to fuck up out of NATO in the next few years.
Europe will, of course, not act on this

[Jacob]

So on the alarmist pessimist side of things, I came across this (in a response to the CEO of Shopify - the second largest Canadian company apparently - slamming Trudeau and siding with Trump):

The shopify guys are majorly rightwing and side with the tech oligarchs who want to install a tech dystopia.

https://pressprogress.ca/shopify-executives-right-wing-media-website-rails-against-immigrants-while-defending-a-legally-designated-terrorist-group/

How Tech Billionaires Plan to Destroy America

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RpPTRcz1no

https://washingtonspectator.org/project-russia-reveals-putins-playbook/

The capture of the presidency by Putin through his proxies Donald Trump and Elon Musk presents a unique opportunity to accelerate destabilization. On January 20, 2025, we will face a barrage of chaotic assaults including potential US debt default, damaging new tariffs, mass firings of federal employees, and catastrophic budget cuts. Their primary target, the dollar, will be assaulted from every angle.

Once dollar destabilization is underway, there is no way to guess where it might take us. But we know that the Kremlin sees this as an opportunity to establish a kind of "supranational autocracy." Another way to describe it might be as a "monarchy" at a global scale, where Putin is effectively "King of the World."

This vision of Putin as the "Prince-Monk" is, of course, aspirational. Russia is weak in many ways, and needs to square its global ambitions with geopolitical facts. Xi Jinping is backing Russia's efforts to the hilt, at least as long as he believes China can benefit from this global reordering. Elon Musk appears to be Putin's point person in the United States, and is doing everything he can to accelerate destabilization. We can envision the resulting autocracy as one led by Putin, Xi, Musk, and a handful of their trusted henchmen.

"We believe that a new phase is coming in the development of human society. All will collapse—both Europe and America, and the U.S. dollar. It's a matter of time. By the way, if the dollar collapses, after that crashes the old world order."

— Yuri Shalyganov (an author of Project Russia)

The Master Plan

https://www.levernews.com/masterplan/

Curtis Yarvin Says Democracy Is Done. Powerful Conservatives Are Listening.

https://www.nytimes.com/video/podcasts/100000009910862/curtis-yarvin-says-democracy-is-done-powerful-conservatives-are-listening.html

The philosopher behind the new administration :

https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1iffkq9/comment/majup13/?context=3

The Wide Angle: Peter Thiel and the American Apocalypse

https://washingtonspectator.org/peter-thiel-and-the-american-apocalypse/

I'm not necessarily convinced - though neither am I ready to dismiss it. I'm putting it here for folks to see so we can compare developments in the next few years to this.

[garbon]

My experience when I've seen Shopify seems like they just host a lot of scam websites with products way below any possible real discount.

[crazy canuck]

Is there any concrete demands towards Mexico and Canada from Trump regarding the supposed reasons, e.g. fentanyl or migration?

Yes, like the last time he imposed tariffs on Canada, he has to bring himself within a national security risk. The security risk he has identified this time is the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants sent into the country.

There is of course no connection between the tariffs and the flow of fentanyl, but I don't hold my breath that the US justice system is going to curtail his acts.

What about that is concrete?  That's the fig-leaf justification ('security') that he's using to take executive action to bypass the free trade agreement, but nothing concrete has been asked.  There's nothing Canada could do and then point to as having met his terms, because it's not designed to be achievable. 

Of course it's a fig leaf.  This is America first in action. 

[HVC]

Ireland? That caught me off guard.

[Neil]

Of course it's a fig leaf.  This is America first in action. 

Yeah, that's my point.

[Valmy]

These are imports. Not sure what Idaho is importing from Malaysia.

[HVC]

I figured chips or computer parts. Does Idaho have a tech hub?

I can't figure out what Ireland would provide.

[Grey Fox]

At 50%, I'm guessing it's some sort of fertilizer chemical.

[grumbler]

I figured chips or computer parts. Does Idaho have a tech hub?

I can't figure out what Ireland would provide.

NC imports a lot of blarney.

[Tonitrus]

I figured chips or computer parts. Does Idaho have a tech hub?

I can't figure out what Ireland would provide.

I had to google it...

The top us import (by a lot) from Malaysia is electronics...Micron Technologies HQ is in Boise, and they have some factories in Malaysia.

[crazy canuck]

Tariff against Mexico is delayed for a month

[Maladict]

Tariff against Mexico is delayed for a month

Interesting, we'll get to see which strategy works best.