So lets game out Trump's imperial ambitions (Panama, Greenland, Canada)

[Barrister]

So lets game out what happens, or what we think will happen.

US military could easily seize Panama.  They already did so in 1989.  It would be slightly harder as I don't think the US has any remaining bases in Panama (they were closed with the turn-over of the canal).  Panama also has no standing army (following the example of Costa Rica).

Seizing Greenland would be even easier - they do have a military base, and the population is negligible.

Panama would certainly have Latin America outraged.  It was one thing to seize Noriega and install the winner of the election that Noriega had over-ruled, but another to be a naked war of conquest.  Would Panamanians enter into an insurgency?  I suppose it might make a difference if US tries to control the entire country, or is content simply to seize the canal.

Greenland would have Europe outraged.  NATO would be over, full stop.  Presumably US would be told to leave all military bases there - Trump might see this as a benefit.

Canada - depends on what he does.  Does he impose tariffs of 25%?  100%?  It would drive Canadian economy into a deep recession, but would certainly hurt the US as well (in particular oil and car parts).  It would not be popular.  Trouble seeing any Canadian leader simply agreeing to some form of annexation though - probably preferring to wait it out.

What about straight up military conquest?

Canadian military is not Panama, or Greenland.  We have 60ish thousand active personnel, roughly 80 CF-18s (hard to see the navy as being involved).  None of these are stationed to defend Canada from the US - but I can't imagine the US could pull off an invasion without any notice or warning either.

So this is where I'm getting lost in the details.  Does Trump try a surprise decapitation strike - sending in special forces to seize politicians in Ottawa together with key government buildings?  They could probably do that by surprise.  Or do they mobilize the military more broadly to cross the border and seize all major cities.  If they do does Ottawa order our soldiers to defend?

And after that - do Canadians start an insurgency?  We're a country of 40 million, and while we have less guns per capita than the US, we have a lot more than most other places.  But do we have it in us?

Incidentally - I used to think the GOP would never want Canada because it would mean too many Democratic voters.  But they don't have to give us statehood - just make Canada a US Territory (like PR or Guam).  No voting rights unless you move to the US.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

In all cases China wins

[HVC]

Let's burn the White House again!

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Let's burn the White House again!

Burn all Trump properties might work better

[Barrister]

In all cases China wins

Well China would have just been given the biggest green light to seize Taiwan, for sure.

It would still be difficult for them though - the PLA has no meaningful combat experience in decades, a naval invasion is very difficult.

But the US very clearly wouldn't be coming to their aid, so while Taiwan could resist for quite awhile it's hard to see them winning.

[HVC]

Serious answer: In a world where Tim controls probability and the US does invade Canada is screwed.  A fight would be put up, but it's futile. We don't have jungle for a proper gorilla war like Vietnam, and while we have vast swaths of land, some of it inhospitable, we don't have population bases there like say Afghanistan. We're too urban. Take out three cities and our fight is gone.

As for insurgencies a large proportion of our conservatives base would happily quisling. Hell, they want to be America north of the border as it stands right now, an invasion would probably be their wet dream.

[Barrister]

Serious answer: In a world where Tim controls probability and the US does invade Canada is screwed.  A fight would be put up, but it's futile. We don't have jungle for a proper gorilla war like Vietnam, and while we have vast swaths of land, some of it inhospitable, we don't have population bases there like say Afghanistan. We're too urban. Take out three cities and our fight is gone.

As for insurgencies a large proportion of our conservatives base would happily quisling. Hell, they want to be America north of the border as it stands right now, an invasion would probably be their wet dream.

So always impossible to say how much of what happens online is real, but there are definitely online voices from Canada cheering on the possibility of annexation, for predictable reasons - lower taxes, second amendment, less wokeness.

As I understand it it was the urban areas that gave US forces in Iraq the most trouble.  Now, Fallujah is pretty different from, say, Vancouver.


Oh, backing up to "economic pressure" - one threat Canada would have is to shut down energy exports - both electricity and oil.  I think Doug Ford has floated this one.

[The Minsky Moment]

Now, Fallujah is pretty different from, say, Vancouver.

I saw Rumble in Bronx.  Vancouver is a scary place, and anyone trying to conquer it will face the daunting challenge of getting through Jackie Chan and his motley multi-cultural band of fake New York kung fu fighting biker gangs.

[HVC]

Vancouver, Montreal, and Toronto are a lot closure the americas army and toys then Fallujah though. Probably a lot easier to project force. I do say that as a complete military strategy novice, admittedly.


I'd also imagine there'll be a sizeable contingent of redneck joy riders joining in of their own volition. Don't know how effective they'd be, but they still mess some stuff up.

[HVC]

Also, blame global warming. Canada is a lot easier to invade now then it was 30 or 40 years ago

[Barrister]

Vancouver, Montreal, and Toronto are a lot closure the americas army and toys then Fallujah though. Probably a lot easier to project force. I do say that as a complete military strategy novice though, admittedly.


I'd also imagine there'll be a sizeable contingent of redneck joy riders joining in of their own volition. Don't know how effective they'd be, but they still mess some stuff up.

So US isn't going to really want to co-operate with irregular forces.  For all that some people might love the idea of having the second amendment in Canada, at first US forces are more likely to seize weapons from groups like that.

The question would be whether Canadian institutions like municipal and provincial police forces co-operate with the new occupation authority.  Ideally they'd want a decapitation strike and otherwise things proceeding as normal.

It's only if they don't get co-operation from ordinary Canadian institutions that they might look into a "Sunni awakening" redneck paramilitary.


The US military didn't seem to have that much difficulty projecting force in Iraq to be fair.

[HVC]

The redneck I was envisioning were the likes of Texan (sorry Valmy ) or Alabamans taking their pickup for a road trip not in concert with the army, but of their own twisted sense of patriotism and the joy of playing soldier with their pew pews.


And yes, getting institutions inline would be the easiest and most efficient route. Don't know if they'd get that. Probably enough sense of "Canadian-ness" that I think it's unlikely (Maybe in Alberta ). In my version of Timmyworld it'd be an all out invasion and occupation.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

On the other hand: Ukraine has shown that invading might look easy but isn't necessarily so.
Unexpected things might happen. And it's not like the US isn't divided either at the moment.

In either Canada or Greenland cases Europe would have no other choice but to rearm even faster because we're still stuck with all the other crap on our borders (Europe being surrounded by hostile countries or hostile ideologies).

[Syt]

The redneck I was envisioning were the likes of Texan (sorry Valmy ) or Alabamans taking their pickup for a road trip not in concert with the army, but of their own twisted sense of patriotism and the joy of playing soldier with their pew pews.

US Redneck Recon reaching Toronto.

[HVC]

Haha forgot about that movie. Maybe I was subconsciously informed by that movie