How long will Trump reign?

[Josquius]

aka- when will Trump die?

[Grey Fox]

We're in the bad timeline where Mugabe live to 95. Xi, Putin & Trump are eternal.

More than 4 years.

[DGuller]

I think there is a lot of wishful groupthink about Trump's physical and mental condition.  At his age anything can develop that would take his life, but at the same time odds are that nothing will.

[crazy canuck]

I think there is a lot of wishful groupthink about Trump's physical and mental condition.  At his age anything can develop that would take his life, but at the same time odds are that nothing will.

A lot being two people? And they said he would last three years, everybody else said he would last the full four or more years.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

A lot being two people? And they said he would last three years, everybody else said he would last the full four or more years.

I was one of them.  It wasn't based on wishful thinking, but rather a fear (as someone mentioned in another thread) that Vance and Co will engineer a removal sometime after the point where the term wouldn't count for Vance.

[Barrister]

I think there is a lot of wishful groupthink about Trump's physical and mental condition.  At his age anything can develop that would take his life, but at the same time odds are that nothing will.

Actuarily, what are the chances of a 78 year old male (non-smoker, non-drinker, but overweight and not active) will die in the next 4 year years?

[Grey Fox]

A lot being two people? And they said he would last three years, everybody else said he would last the full four or more years.

I was one of them.  It wasn't based on wishful thinking, but rather a fear (as someone mentioned in another thread) that Vance and Co will engineer a removal sometime after the point where the term wouldn't count for Vance.

Why? That sounds like a vast overestimation of Vance's capabilities. Dude's a spazz.

[DGuller]

Actuarily, what are the chances of a 78 year old male (non-smoker, non-drinker, but overweight and not active) will die in the next 4 year years?

If you go by actuarial tables, it's around 20%-25%.  However, there are multiple reasons to not go by actuarial tables.  For one, Trump has hands down the best medical care anyone can have.  Lots of people making up the actuarial tables don't.  Another reason is the selection bias:  a lot of 78 years old males whose experience makes up the actuarial tables are already declining, with dementia for example.  If you're at that age and you're not, you're probably going to have a considerably better than expected mortality.

Say what you will about Trump, but I don't see any reason to think he has significant physical or mental deterioration.  Sure, there are plenty of soundbites of him saying something weird, but the dude has been talking a lot.  The more you talk, the more you're going to say something that will go to soundbites.

[Barrister]

Actuarily, what are the chances of a 78 year old male (non-smoker, non-drinker, but overweight and not active) will die in the next 4 year years?

If you go by actuarial tables, it's around 20%-25%.  However, there are multiple reasons to not go by actuarial tables.  For one, Trump has hands down the best medical care anyone can have.  Lots of people making up the actuarial tables don't.  Another reason is the selection bias:  a lot of 78 years old males whose experience makes up the actuarial tables are already declining, with dementia for example.  If you're at that age and you're not, you're probably going to have a considerably better than expected mortality.

Say what you will about Trump, but I don't see any reason to think he has significant physical or mental deterioration.  Sure, there are plenty of soundbites of him saying something weird, but the dude has been talking a lot.  The more you talk, the more you're going to say something that will go to soundbites.

Why must you be so cruel...

Looking on the "bright side" of course we have no idea what Trump's actual health is since he's never revealed his health records.  His fondness for fast food, and the very little sleep he gets, are not good signs.

Remember Antonin Scalia just died one night at the age of 79.  Now I liked Scalia a lot more than I like Trump, but these things can just happen.

[DGuller]

Of course they can happen.  That said, it seems like God really has it in for Democrats.  Over the last few decades, so many very close-run pivotal events happened that changed the course of US history.  George W Bush winning in 2000 by a whisker, Trump winning in 2016 by a whisker, Trump turning his head at just the right moment.  The first two really steered the country in a profound direction, my guess is that in time we'll find the third one did as well, maybe even more so.

I know this is purely an emotional argument, but sometimes in game of poker you just know that you're going to be fucked on every coin flip, because there is just nothing going your way, laws of probability be damned.  It feels like this in politics to me.

[mongers]

Of course they can happen.  That said, it seems like God really has it in for Democrats.  Over the last few decades, so many very close-run pivotal events happened that changed the course of US history.  George W Bush winning in 2000 by a whisker, Trump winning in 2016 by a whisker, Trump turning his head at just the right moment.  The first two really steered the country in a profound direction, my guess is that in time we'll find the third one did as well, maybe even more so.

I know this is purely an emotional argument, but sometimes in game of poker you just know that you're going to be fucked on every coin flip, because there is just nothing going your way, laws of probability be damned.  It feels like this in politics to me.

DG, when in life are those odd occasions that are not like a game of poker?   

[Barrister]

Of course they can happen.  That said, it seems like God really has it in for Democrats.  Over the last few decades, so many very close-run pivotal events happened that changed the course of US history.  George W Bush winning in 2000 by a whisker, Trump winning in 2016 by a whisker, Trump turning his head at just the right moment.  The first two really steered the country in a profound direction, my guess is that in time we'll find the third one did as well, maybe even more so.

I know this is purely an emotional argument, but sometimes in game of poker you just know that you're going to be fucked on every coin flip, because there is just nothing going your way, laws of probability be damned.  It feels like this in politics to me.

Weren't you the very one who talked about the coin flip fallacy?

Plus 2000 was a long time ago, and it's really hard to game out what a President Gore would have done post 9/11.  I don't think it's a guarantee the outcome would have been any better.

[DGuller]

Weren't you the very one who talked about the coin flip fallacy?

Plus 2000 was a long time ago, and it's really hard to game out what a President Gore would have done post 9/11.  I don't think it's a guarantee the outcome would have been any better.

I did, hence my entire last paragraph.  I may understand statistics very well, but I'm still human, and presently a rather despondent human at that.

[The Brain]

Jimmy Carter is still around. He just didn't coup his way to eternal office because he's such a Democrat.

[Barrister]

Jimmy Carter is still around. He just didn't coup his way to eternal office because he's such a Democrat.

If you can call it being "around".

He's not exactly swinging his hammer for Habitat for Humanity these days.  He recently turned 100 and this pictures from the time had him looking like he's 3/4 of the way into the grave.