Who do you think's going to win the US presidential election?

[Habbaku]

You guys are getting wobbly. Harris will win.

[FunkMonk]

The closing week has been interesting.

Smart people saying most of the polling has been herding and that it doesn't make sense in light of the  early voter compositions we've been seeing. An R pollster for Michigan admitted yesterday that their weighting was wrong in that they've underweighted women and voters in Detroit for this cycle and their last poll still showed Harris +2. The Selzer poll showing big movement in Iowa of all states, especially among women.

The vibes from the campaigns are instructive. The Harris campaign insists they are still the underdog but they also seem confident, and their ground operation is massive. Trump's campaign almost looks like it is on life support. Apparently they have almost zero ground game in some of the battleground states? And his rallies are a pale imitation of 8 years ago, both in attendance and in performance. He looks physically finished. There appears to be an enthusiasm gap.

I think Harris wins. I want to believe most of the polling is massively wrong and she wins a landslide, but I'll take a squeaky bum win.

[Josquius]

From my observations in reality, albeit in a different country, I do think we've crossed a certain pivot point this past decade.
Go back to the early noughties and there was a big "Shy tory" factor. People wouldn't admit they were racist pieces of shit even if they were. I certainly remember reading Trump had this factor going for him a lot in 2016 which the pollsters just didn't see coming.
Though where we are now this shit has been so normalised that I do believe in many circles (e.g. working class white guys) its quite the opposite. You are far more expected to outwardly pretend to be a horrid misogynistic racist piece of shit... whilst in private and the polling booth things are quite different.
Basically a complete flip.

Lots of mentioning that for women this will be even more so. Women staying quiet and looking like they're just following their Trump loving husbands fully intending to tick the other box. Going out to do their daily chores and popping in to vote for Harris on the way home whilst their boyfriend doesn't vote. That sort of thing.

[crazy canuck]

The closing week has been interesting.

Smart people saying most of the polling has been herding and that it doesn't make sense in light of the  early voter compositions we've been seeing. An R pollster for Michigan admitted yesterday that their weighting was wrong in that they've underweighted women and voters in Detroit for this cycle and their last poll still showed Harris +2. The Selzer poll showing big movement in Iowa of all states, especially among women.

The vibes from the campaigns are instructive. The Harris campaign insists they are still the underdog but they also seem confident, and their ground operation is massive. Trump's campaign almost looks like it is on life support. Apparently they have almost zero ground game in some of the battleground states? And his rallies are a pale imitation of 8 years ago, both in attendance and in performance. He looks physically finished. There appears to be an enthusiasm gap.

I think Harris wins. I want to believe most of the polling is massively wrong and she wins a landslide, but I'll take a squeaky bum win.

The fact that the GOP ground game was contracted out to Musk, combined with the fact he has no idea how to run a ground game but thinks he can, also gives me a lot of hope.

[PJL]

The closing week has been interesting.

Smart people saying most of the polling has been herding and that it doesn't make sense in light of the  early voter compositions we've been seeing. An R pollster for Michigan admitted yesterday that their weighting was wrong in that they've underweighted women and voters in Detroit for this cycle and their last poll still showed Harris +2. The Selzer poll showing big movement in Iowa of all states, especially among women.

The vibes from the campaigns are instructive. The Harris campaign insists they are still the underdog but they also seem confident, and their ground operation is massive. Trump's campaign almost looks like it is on life support. Apparently they have almost zero ground game in some of the battleground states? And his rallies are a pale imitation of 8 years ago, both in attendance and in performance. He looks physically finished. There appears to be an enthusiasm gap.

I think Harris wins. I want to believe most of the polling is massively wrong and she wins a landslide, but I'll take a squeaky bum win.

Pretty much what I've been seeing and thinking for the last few days as well. Reminds me of Corbyn in 2017, which the pollsters underestimated support for as well.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Unlike may of you I won't catastrophize a result I don't like, but I lean towards believing Harris will win. The poll herding concerns me and actually makes me suspect we are collectively overestimating Trump. I think this will be a huge win for Islamism in the world. Trump losing will be the biggest win Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran will have had in the last 30 years. There will be positives of a Harris Presidency, particularly in regards to domestic policy (just as there would have been negatives of a Trump one, albeit many exaggerated by the left.)

The non-response bias of Trump voters, while still a thing, appears to be less than 2020, but pollsters appear to be making far more forceful adjustments to over-represented Trump voters than they did in 2020, which just gives me some technical indicator the situation isn't what it superficially seems to be.

I also do give (limited) credence to the "vibes" argument, rumormongering suggests the reason the Trump campaign is giving so many signs of desperation is they have a lot of internal indicators showing he may not be doing as well as they were boasting just 2 weeks ago.

I will note though--there were similar campaign vibes in Trumpworld in November of 2016. It will still be a fundamentally close election, and some effect could be at play that could give either candidate a win, but if we're prognosticating, my guess is Harris wins.

[Barrister]

Unlike may of you I won't catastrophize a result I don't like, but I lean towards believing Harris will win. The poll herding concerns me and actually makes me suspect we are collectively overestimating Trump. I think this will be a huge win for Islamism in the world. Trump losing will be the biggest win Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran will have had in the last 30 years. There will be positives of a Harris Presidency, particularly in regards to domestic policy (just as there would have been negatives of a Trump one, albeit many exaggerated by the left.)

In terms of catastrophizing the election results, which is normally something I really push back against (in particular here in Canada) - it sure seems to me that Trump has by far the largest risk of "catastrophe".

I'm just going to accept at face value your belief that Trump will be better for Israel than Harris, though I don't personally believe it.  But I see zero chance Harris is just going to abandon Israel (hell - she's married to a Jew!).  But okay, sure, maybe Trump takes a harder line on Islamic terrorism.  But no catastrophe from Harris.

But what am I worried about Trump doing?  Withdrawing from NATO.  Cutting off Ukraine aid.  Implementing tariffs at a rate unseen since Smoot-Hawley.  Pursuing nakedly political prosecutions of his enemies.

[jimmy olsen]

Post your maps!

I think this one is reasonable

https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1853495625834541068?

[Grey Fox]

Don't need more.

[Admiral Yi]

 

[Habbaku]

#Blexas

[Tonitrus]

#Beto's Revenge

[Sophie Scholl]

I mean, if we're going to dream, then to heck with it...
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[crazy canuck]

Ohio. You are optimistic.

[Solmyr]

You guys are getting wobbly. Harris will win.

I'm holding you personally responsible for this.