2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Josquius]

The Left needs to find a cause that lets people point fingers at and blame others to feel good about themselves. And no, climate change, and minority rights do not count because these are things that mean giving things up for a lot of people. Be it civilisational comforts or the ability to jump various queues if you are the correct skin colour or sexual orientation. These are not things to establish mass appeal on. The are things to work on when you have gained power on the mass appeal thing.

Therein lies the problem with a system consisting only of two extremely polarised right wing parties. I really wonder how they could handle this one.

I also find it amazing beyond belief that people think that Trump was an economic genius.  Only 2 presidents since 1870 have finished their term with fewer American employed than at the start of their term: Hoover and Trump.  Some genius.  Some plan.

I think my disdain for Donald J Trump is well established.  Fuck that goof.

(And if anyone has really good memories, I told you what a goof was in Canadian prison slang)/

The irony of the Trump presidency though is the only good thing he did was his "Operation Warp Speed" to develop Covid vaccines - and he's too afraid of his own supporters to take credit for it.  As for the job numbers - again he was president during a world-wide pandemic, which maybe had something to do with the drop in the job numbers.

To be fair though he's not entirely beyond blame on this.
The US was late in getting covid, and conspiracy nonsense dominated from the start. A lot could have been done early to avoid it hitting so hard... but it wasn't.

[Tamas]

Therein lies the problem with a system consisting only of two extremely polarised right wing parties. I really wonder how they could handle this one.

My point, I feel, is universal, though.

In the UK it took astonishing levels of Tory blunders and mismanagement AND a very noticable Labour distancing from the current Leftist cultural and political focus points to finally overcome the "bloody EU, bloody immigrants, bloody woke people" trinity that kept the Tories in power for longer than anyone that incompetent should have been.


My theory is that the Left won the post-WW2 decades of the 20th century. Broadly speaking, their economic goals have been achieved (obviously not completely and plenty left to do but look at say conditions in 1900 and 2000) and have become accepted defaults that not even the Right challenges anymore.

And there's the problem. Because seeing no more obvious economic benefit from supporting the Left, the working class has stopped tolerating the Left's political ideas which I suspect was always a baggage for a lot of them they put up  with on account of tribal affiliations motivated by economic interests.


In other words, currently the Left has nothing to offer to "the masses". What the Left offers (a fairer society and economic status quo) "the masses" have no interest in. A fairer society is a disadvantage to you if the only thing of real value you can sell on the market is your skin colour. And they think the economic status quo is a given that cannot get worse.
 

[garbon]

So the left should become the right?

[Tamas]

So the left should become the right?

Not at all. What's the point in that. But there must be ways to restore the economic incentives for votes which they had.

[garbon]

So the left should become the right?

Not at all. What's the point in that. But there must be ways to restore the economic incentives for votes which they had.

You posited that the left needs to find an outgroup target to blame. Presumably because you think voters only coalesce when they have someone to hate...which feels very rightwing.

And they are economically benefiting from more extraction of rich from the wealthy but find it hard to see the benefits given we are now longer in free credit land where everyone can party in their own house.

[Josquius]

Therein lies the problem with a system consisting only of two extremely polarised right wing parties. I really wonder how they could handle this one.

My point, I feel, is universal, though.

In the UK it took astonishing levels of Tory blunders and mismanagement AND a very noticable Labour distancing from the current Leftist cultural and political focus points to finally overcome the "bloody EU, bloody immigrants, bloody woke people" trinity that kept the Tories in power for longer than anyone that incompetent should have been.


My theory is that the Left won the post-WW2 decades of the 20th century. Broadly speaking, their economic goals have been achieved (obviously not completely and plenty left to do but look at say conditions in 1900 and 2000) and have become accepted defaults that not even the Right challenges anymore.

And there's the problem. Because seeing no more obvious economic benefit from supporting the Left, the working class has stopped tolerating the Left's political ideas which I suspect was always a baggage for a lot of them they put up  with on account of tribal affiliations motivated by economic interests.


In other words, currently the Left has nothing to offer to "the masses". What the Left offers (a fairer society and economic status quo) "the masses" have no interest in. A fairer society is a disadvantage to you if the only thing of real value you can sell on the market is your skin colour. And they think the economic status quo is a given that cannot get worse.
 

Its less "the masses" have no interest in these things and more many don't realise they have an interest in these things.
There's this idea been built up that we live in a zero sum world and somebody else having something means you lose. The idea of solidarity and community has been devastated.

Labour under Corbyn absolutely did promise things that would have greatly helped regular working class people- imagining everything went as promised of course- the main problem in 2019 was promising too much and lacking credibility.
There's just no belief that the country actually can become a better place overall. It can only ever be about sharing out what is already there in different ways.
When there's no opportunity open to you, you come to disbelieve in the very idea.

As Grumbler says its less that they believe Trump actually will be good for the country. More that he'll make others suffer. And others suffering means more comes your way. This was absolutely core to brekshit in the UK- a desire to hurt those who were doing OK.

As I've said before there's also an issue that the left tends to rely on system 2 thinking. Building is hard. Especially when plans aren't direct 1+1=2 but rely on lots of nudges and interlinking systems.
 The populist right meanwhile can tap straight into scapegoating with system 1. No need to consider anything. Just hate those guys over there.

[Tamas]

So the left should become the right?

Not at all. What's the point in that. But there must be ways to restore the economic incentives for votes which they had.

You posited that the left needs to find an outgroup target to blame. Presumably because you think voters only coalesce when they have someone to hate...which feels very rightwing.

And they are economically benefiting from more extraction of rich from the wealthy but find it hard to see the benefits given we are now longer in free credit land where everyone can party in their own house.

Yeah but the outgroup can be rich people as well.

And yes apart from economical benefit and general tribal reflexes the only thing that makes people coalesce is someone to hate, or at least fight.

[garbon]

Odd, I vote on who I think has the best chance to help the widest swathe of my fellow citizens.

[Tamas]

Odd, I vote on who I think has the best chance to help the widest swathe of my fellow citizens.

50% of Americans are going to vote for Trump in a month and you want to pretend you represent the average mass of voters?

[garbon]

Odd, I vote on who I think has the best chance to help the widest swathe of my fellow citizens.

50% of Americans are going to vote for Trump in a month and you want to pretend you represent the average mass of voters? I have seen clips of Trump supporters saying they want to vote for him as he is only one with a plan that will help America.

Are 50% going to vote for him? Are the other 50% non representative? Is there evidence they are voting because of hate?

I've heard clips of Trump supporters who say they want to vote for him as he is the only one with a plan to help America.

[crazy canuck]

Odd, I vote on who I think has the best chance to help the widest swathe of my fellow citizens.

50% of Americans are going to vote for Trump in a month and you want to pretend you represent the average mass of voters?

I think Garbon is representative of most voters. The appeal of Trump is that many of his supporters, the Evangelicals for example, think he is the best candidate for the country as a whole.

The difficulty is there is a dramatic divergence of opinion about what is in the best interests of the nation largely caused by misinformation and social media bubbles.

[crazy canuck]

So the left should become the right?

Not at all. What's the point in that. But there must be ways to restore the economic incentives for votes which they had.

I think you have diagnosed the wrong problem. The ideological underpinning of Trumpism has been active in American politics for a long time.  It is easy to forget that the appeal of right wing extremism and America First movements have resulted in the election a some distasteful characters in the past, including during the post WW II period.

[grumbler]

I think Garbon is representative of most voters. The appeal of Trump is that many of his supporters, the Evangelicals for example, think he is the best candidate for the country as a whole.

The difficulty is there is a dramatic divergence of opinion about what is in the best interests of the nation largely caused by misinformation and social media bubbles.

The Evangelicals support him because the majority of them think that the world will end in their lifetimes and the election of Trump will accelerate that.

There's no explaining the love of so many working-class dudes like, say, the members of the Teamsters, for a man who has stated quite openly that he hates unions, hates to pay for overtime, and would, were it in his power, immediately fire every worker who went on strike.  The only conclusion one can draw is that they know a Trump administration will suck for them, but will suck even more for those damn woke bastards.

[The Brain]

Many people vote for ideology, and not for narrow self-interest.

[DGuller]

From my personal interactions with Trump supporters, who unfortunately make up the majority of my extended family, I think what happens is that they believe him selectively.  In their minds, Trump lies about the things they disagree with, and is honest about the things they agree with.  When it's not about words but about actions, they settle.  Trump may be a jerk and may write mean tweets, but the alternative is unpalatable.  Frankly I've lost all hope when my extended family came back to the fold even while being strong supporters of Ukraine.