Did the last 40 years see more change than any other period of history?

Started by Razgovory, August 22, 2024, 12:31:40 PM

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crazy canuck

Quote from: PDH on August 24, 2024, 10:11:05 PMThe last 40 years have seen me go from a fairly optimistic lad to a bitter old man - I would say that is a lot of change.

I was going to say same as it ever was, but the change is that now young lads are also not optimistic.

Razgovory

What I'm curious about is what are the big scientific and technological advances of the last 40 years.  In the last 25 years in particular, it seems we haven't had much.  I find it very disappointing. I can't help but feel that could be making strides in genetic engineering, but have been stymied by laws and public hysteria.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

crazy canuck

Quote from: Razgovory on August 25, 2024, 11:57:17 AMWhat I'm curious about is what are the big scientific and technological advances of the last 40 years.  In the last 25 years in particular, it seems we haven't had much.  I find it very disappointing. I can't help but feel that could be making strides in genetic engineering, but have been stymied by laws and public hysteria.

Scientific advances are occurring so rapidly now that it really isn't registering the way scientific discoveries used to be noteworthy.

It was just 20 years ago that the human genetic code was sequenced and now medical treatments based on an individual's specific genetics are almost common place.

So I'm not sure what you mean by genetic engineering.


Josquius

Yeah. Technology is advancing really fast.
This past decade Moores Law has slowed down but before hand things were insanely fast.
Then you've got the Internet which has gone from nothing to transformative.
And in recent years green tech has come on tonnes. Not to mention genetics and medicine.

It is a pretty standard trope, the whole "we were promised jet packs, robot butlers, and mars colonies!" thing. Technological advancement has been a lot more subtle than this. But it has been huge.
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Sheilbh

Also just thinking about Norgy's comment on the shift on smoking - which I totally agree with - I feel like the weight loss drugs are going to be pretty transformative.

I'd add translation software is genuinely extraordinary now. I think they may end up being something that accelerates (possible) deglobalisation. Also GPS and 3D printing spring to mind.

I think the big one may not necessarily be new technology and is tied with China (which, I think, is the big change of the last 25 years) - but the reduction in costs and mass manufacturing of EVs and renewable energy being driven by China. They're testing 1,000kmh trains and building $30k EVs - I think that's probably as significant at this stage as America's industrial breakthroughs at the start of the 20th century (even if they might not find a market in North America or Europe - which is in its own way a significant shift from 2000).

But again it gets to the orientation of the question - do we mean the advance of the cutting edge/vanguard or the democratisation/broad spread of those changes.
Let's bomb Russia!

viper37

Quote from: Razgovory on August 25, 2024, 11:57:17 AMWhat I'm curious about is what are the big scientific and technological advances of the last 40 years.  In the last 25 years in particular, it seems we haven't had much.  I find it very disappointing. I can't help but feel that could be making strides in genetic engineering, but have been stymied by laws and public hysteria.
Ray tracing, path tracing, frame generation and DLSS.  According to Reddit.

AI, according to tech companies.

Crypto money, according to modern financial investors scammers.



;)
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Razgovory

Quote from: crazy canuck on August 25, 2024, 01:38:31 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 25, 2024, 11:57:17 AMWhat I'm curious about is what are the big scientific and technological advances of the last 40 years.  In the last 25 years in particular, it seems we haven't had much.  I find it very disappointing. I can't help but feel that could be making strides in genetic engineering, but have been stymied by laws and public hysteria.

Scientific advances are occurring so rapidly now that it really isn't registering the way scientific discoveries used to be noteworthy.

It was just 20 years ago that the human genetic code was sequenced and now medical treatments based on an individual's specific genetics are almost common place.

So I'm not sure what you mean by genetic engineering.


Are scientific advances occurring so rapidly that we aren't registering them?  What proof of this do you have?
The sentence

" It was just 20 years ago that the human genetic code was sequenced and now medical treatments based on an individual's specific genetics are almost common place."  

Could be rewritten slightly as 

" It was 20 years ago that the human genetic code was sequenced and medical treatments based on an individual's specific genetics are still not common place."

And has an identical meaning.

When I talk about genetic engineering, I'm talking about modifying people, animals, and plants.  This has faced immense resistance.  There are some modified plants, but companies often refuse to use them, and whole countries ban them.

Compare this to the forty years prior to 1984.  You have atomic bombs, moon landings, space probes, satellites, nuclear power plants, digital computers, arguably the internet was invented in this time period, some real advances in material sciences such as plastics, development of the standard model, plate tectonics, the first really effective psychiatric medications, lasers, the Big Bang, organ transplants, cell phones, DNA discovered, etc  
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

DGuller

How many of the inventions you consider important now were immediately recognized as important at the time?  I bet quite a few modern inventions will be considered foundational, but their true value is not recognized right now, because they haven't been fully exploited yet.  It probably took a few decades before Internet became an obviously transformational invention.

The Brain

When talking about change in this context I think that political changes (of the type regime change) are relevant to the extent they have a clear impact on more fundamental aspects of life, but are not necessarily very relevant in themselves.

I've read that there has been a pretty great increase in material standard of living in the poorer parts of the world the past 40 years.

In parts of the world the past 40 years have meant much greater acceptance of LGBTQ+ stuff. That's quite a significant change for many lives, but of course not on a global scale.

Women want me. Men want to be with me.

Zanza

The most profound technological development in the last forty (in the West sixty) years is birth control. Most societies outside Africa are now below replacement level, some in East Asia and Central/Eastern Europe already start contracting. It is a global phenomenon and will shape economy, politics, and even climate change for the next century. After two hundred centuries of rapid population growth, Earth will see fewer, older humans eventually.

crazy canuck

Quote from: Razgovory on August 25, 2024, 08:01:26 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 25, 2024, 01:38:31 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 25, 2024, 11:57:17 AMWhat I'm curious about is what are the big scientific and technological advances of the last 40 years.  In the last 25 years in particular, it seems we haven't had much.  I find it very disappointing. I can't help but feel that could be making strides in genetic engineering, but have been stymied by laws and public hysteria.

Scientific advances are occurring so rapidly now that it really isn't registering the way scientific discoveries used to be noteworthy.

It was just 20 years ago that the human genetic code was sequenced and now medical treatments based on an individual's specific genetics are almost common place.

So I'm not sure what you mean by genetic engineering.


Are scientific advances occurring so rapidly that we aren't registering them?  What proof of this do you have?
The sentence

" It was just 20 years ago that the human genetic code was sequenced and now medical treatments based on an individual's specific genetics are almost common place." 

Could be rewritten slightly as

" It was 20 years ago that the human genetic code was sequenced and medical treatments based on an individual's specific genetics are still not common place."

And has an identical meaning.

When I talk about genetic engineering, I'm talking about modifying people, animals, and plants.  This has faced immense resistance.  There are some modified plants, but companies often refuse to use them, and whole countries ban them.

Compare this to the forty years prior to 1984.  You have atomic bombs, moon landings, space probes, satellites, nuclear power plants, digital computers, arguably the internet was invented in this time period, some real advances in material sciences such as plastics, development of the standard model, plate tectonics, the first really effective psychiatric medications, lasers, the Big Bang, organ transplants, cell phones, DNA discovered, etc 

Genetic treatments are not common in the same way that all specialized and expensive medical treatments are not common.

That they exist at all is prove of dramatic leaps in our knowledge of genetics over the last 20 years.

But the average person like you is not knowledgeable about what is happening.  That doesn't mean research breakthroughs are not happening. 

garbon

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I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

crazy canuck

No insult was intended.  It is simply a fact that unless a person has some specialized knowledge they won't know about the breakthroughs being made.  Also people with specialized knowledge will not likely know about breakthroughs outside their area of knowledge.

Grey Fox

I think CC might be on to something here. Most technological leaps & changes of the last 40 years have been extremely specialized and thus, hidden.

In the industry I work in the last 40 years have seen humans develop machines with the ability to lay material over other material in layers that are 6 to 10 atoms thick. Nanometers & smaller. We've jumped from having analog signal TVs to billions of pixels analyzed by magnitudes of computer power contained in watches size machine. An industry used by billions of humans, everyday, seemlessly.

In the previous 40 years before that my industry did not exist.
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DGuller

I think there is a paradox there somewhere.  The more widespread the process of invention is, the less likely there is to be a "Great Person" genius.  Because so many people are doing inventing these days, on small scale and large scale, it's much harder to stand out as a towering genius able to innovate across many disciplines.  However, in totality, the effect of all the inventions that do happen is greater.