2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Fair point.  The urgency may be greater than if Biden was considered a strong candidate.

I do hope the Dems have a plan B prepared because I think the age stuff is a real risk.

Totally get Garbon's point which is right objectively, but I think politically it is cutting through and like all the best attacks is fundamentally factual: Biden is old.

[Habbaku]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/special-counsel-says-evidence-biden-willfully-retained-disclosed-class-rcna96666

Bidens' memory, Hur's report said, "was significantly limited" during his 2023 interviews with the special counsel.

"We have also considered that, at trial, Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory," it said. "Based on our direct interactions with and observations of him, he is someone for whom many jurors will want to identify reasonable doubt. It would be difficult to convince a jury that they should convict him — by then a former president well into his eighties — of a serious felony that requires a mental state of willfulness."

Later in the report, the special counsel said that the president's memory was "worse" during their interview with him, compared to his memory in recorded conversations from 2017.

[Valmy]

Fair point.  The urgency may be greater than if Biden was considered a strong candidate.

I do hope the Dems have a plan B prepared because I think the age stuff is a real risk.

Totally get Garbon's point which is right objectively, but I think politically it is cutting through and like all the best attacks is fundamentally factual: Biden is old.

The whole situation is unbelievable. I think we all assumed, and was reinforced by Biden himself, that he would be a one term President and he would be a bridge to some younger politician in 2024. Instead we are taking an enormous risk for no particular reason with enormous stakes. Biden isn't some irreplaceable unique figure.

[garbon]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/special-counsel-says-evidence-biden-willfully-retained-disclosed-class-rcna96666

Bidens' memory, Hur's report said, "was significantly limited" during his 2023 interviews with the special counsel.

"We have also considered that, at trial, Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory," it said. "Based on our direct interactions with and observations of him, he is someone for whom many jurors will want to identify reasonable doubt. It would be difficult to convince a jury that they should convict him — by then a former president well into his eighties — of a serious felony that requires a mental state of willfulness."

Later in the report, the special counsel said that the president's memory was "worse" during their interview with him, compared to his memory in recorded conversations from 2017.

Ouch.

[Barrister]

Fair point.  The urgency may be greater than if Biden was considered a strong candidate.

I do hope the Dems have a plan B prepared because I think the age stuff is a real risk.

Totally get Garbon's point which is right objectively, but I think politically it is cutting through and like all the best attacks is fundamentally factual: Biden is old.

The whole situation is unbelievable. I think we all assumed, and was reinforced by Biden himself, that he would be a one term President and he would be a bridge to some younger politician in 2024. Instead we are taking an enormous risk for no particular reason with enormous stakes. Biden isn't some irreplaceable unique figure.

Problem is Kamala Harris hasn't exactly captured the nation's attention.

[Sheilbh]

The whole situation is unbelievable. I think we all assumed, and was reinforced by Biden himself, that he would be a one term President and he would be a bridge to some younger politician in 2024. Instead we are taking an enormous risk for no particular reason with enormous stakes. Biden isn't some irreplaceable unique figure.

Yeah - although I think politicians force the issue to some extent. It's not like Harris has overwhelmed or some other alternative has managed to push themselves forward.

[Josquius]

Maybe not president next year quality but are there any politicians the level below that?-Looking like president in a decade or two candidates?
About the only non old dem with a profile that comes to mind for me is AOC, and obviously a hell of a lot would have to change before she gets a shot.

[DGuller]

I have to say that for the first time, I truly am concerned about Biden's condition.  I hope he's not another RBG whose stubbornness at the end of their life undid all their life's work.  It seems likre whatever is done to run the US is working, but if Biden shits the bed during the debate (figuratively or literally), that won't matter.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I have to say that for the first time, I truly am concerned about Biden's condition.  I hope he's not another RBG whose stubbornness at the end of their life undid all their life's work.  It seems likre whatever is done to run the US is working, but if Biden shits the bed during the debate (figuratively or literally), that won't matter.

Sorry for what reason? Because he misstated foreign country leader names? That is concerning, but has been going on his entire Presidency, not saying it isn't a concern, but I'm confused as to why it is "now" a big concern.

W. Bush did similar, and wasn't even 80.

I think objectively speaking Biden shows his age, but he has always been poorly spoken, and frankly probably not like a "top tier" intelligence. I don't see any signs he has serious dementia or anything versus somewhat dumb and poorly spoken Joe Biden from 10 or 20 years ago.

[DGuller]

Misspeaking is one thing, but this kind of misfiring when you link to facts you learned during your younger years triggers dementia alarm for me.  This is what my grandmother used to do on her bad days.  It's like the layer of memory formed during the later years, which modifies or augments your memory formed earlier in your life, gets taken offline.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Misspeaking is one thing, but this kind of misfiring when you link to facts you learned during your younger years triggers dementia alarm for me.  This is what my grandmother used to do on her bad days.  It's like the layer of memory formed during the later years, which modifies or augments your memory formed earlier in your life, gets taken offline.

I think it would be more concerning if he hadn't always talked like this, like I know tons of people who have poor memory misfires, and have, for decades of adulthood. I dunno, just seems like a big nothing to me. I don't think everyone has equivalent memory recall abilities and I don't know that such variance is a sign of dementia. I don't think it is something that is commonly tested for in dementia tests, either.

[Josquius]

Sounds like a really lame way to defend him.... But this kind of misspeaking can also be an indicator of intelligence.
Somebody whose brain is constantly making connections and thinking of context and making links. Thinking out of pace with speaking.

Key words there can be of course. Depends on what other evidence is out there for whether this is valid or they're just dumb.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I don't think Biden is that smart, with the caveat that (using the clumsy tool of IQ), 100 is intended to be the mean IQ. A person with an IQ of 100 isn't "dumb" but they aren't "smart", smart usually implies someone is more intelligent than the average, with definitions getting squishy.

Biden graduated law school and was admitted to the Delaware bar, while lawyers are fun to pick on, I don't really think you can be actually "stupid" and do those things. That requires the ability to study and retain knowledge of what you studied, and to pass an exam that is somewhat well known for being hard to pass.

On the flipside, he graduated near the bottom of his class and got in trouble for plagiarism while in school. He spent most of his life in elected office, and regularly said things that came off as pretty dumb. This is distinct from his speech impediment--which he has, and which frequently causes people to assume someone is dumber than they actually are.

He isn't "Joe Rogan" dumb, but he is probably less intelligent than the average lawyer. But a lot of that is squishy, key point being whatever Joe's intelligence, he has never presented himself well. He is not well spoken and never has been, he has never been good at speaking clearly and coherently, he has done worse than his peers in his academic pursuits--but he has completed academic pursuits that genuine imbeciles typically can't do. Where that puts him I don't know, but he seems significantly less intelligent than national political figures like Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, John McCain, George H.W. Bush and people of that nature. He seems equal or maybe more intelligent than George W. Bush and Donald Trump (Trump's intelligence is also not easy to judge because his manner of speech trends towards the incoherent and disorganized, but he has some obvious indicators he isn't actually an imbecile.)

[Tamas]

There is being absent minded and then there is regularly mistaking one person with a completely different one. If he has always been unable to remember the difference between Kohl and Merkel, that makes him less fit for office compared to a demented 81 years old, not more.

[Valmy]

Fair point.  The urgency may be greater than if Biden was considered a strong candidate.

I do hope the Dems have a plan B prepared because I think the age stuff is a real risk.

Totally get Garbon's point which is right objectively, but I think politically it is cutting through and like all the best attacks is fundamentally factual: Biden is old.

The whole situation is unbelievable. I think we all assumed, and was reinforced by Biden himself, that he would be a one term President and he would be a bridge to some younger politician in 2024. Instead we are taking an enormous risk for no particular reason with enormous stakes. Biden isn't some irreplaceable unique figure.

Problem is Kamala Harris hasn't exactly captured the nation's attention.

Well that was obvious when he picked her. I thought he had promised his black supporters a black female VP so he delivered. But I didn't think at the time that he was also locking in his successor.