The China Thread

[Admiral Yi]

Isn't that the PLA version of a salute?  I thought I read that somewhere.  And I do know the Russkies tried to eliminate the salute in the name of egalitarianism before bringing it back.

[Threviel]

So, the new Fujian aircraft carrier has finally gotten underway, though still incomplete.  It is shaping up to be one of those bureaucratically-driven failures like the US Zumwalt class destroyers, as political pressures forced the PLAN to take huge technical risks without any real means to constrain their losses in the event of failure.

For instance, the directive came down from the supreme military command, headed by Xi himself, that the PLAN was to bypass the normal technical evolution of catapults and instead jump directly to electromagnetic launch systems like the new US Ford class.  The ship's power plant though, lacks the energy output to operate EMALS at anything like a normal operating tempo while also providing propulsion.  Even worse, there was no time to build prototype land-based version of the EMALS they wanted to use, which was a completely hypothetical one proposed by an engineering student at Beijing University.  There have been no tests of the EMALS and it isn't entirely clear that it is even fully installed or, perhaps not even fully developed.  The officer in charge of PLAN R&D, who oversaw the project, was arrested for "corruption" (but likely actually for making promises that could not be kept).

That creates another severe problem, because the proposed aircraft for the Fujian is the venerable J-15,  which is an extremely heavy aircraft for a carrier-based fighter, and its successor is still on the drawing board.  The only positive for the PLAN in this is that they don't have the pilots to man the new air wing, so not being able to launch or land aircraft is not such a drawback.

It is possible that the PLAN will figure out how to make the EMALS work, and draw enough planes and pilots from their two existing carriers to start crew training, but since Fujian uses a completely new launch and landing system and flight deck "dance," training is going to take a few years even given the ability to call on experienced crew members from the first two carriers.

All signs are that this ship, like Zumwalt, \was a step too far in advance of what the technology would actually allow.  It looks like heads have already started to roll.

Interesting. How's Emals shaping up on the US carriers?

[grumbler]

Interesting. How's Emals shaping up on the US carriers?

EMALS is working better than the steam catapults it replaces, but hasn't yet met the reliability figures it is expected to eventually meet.  Fine tuning will be ongoing for years.

It is encouraging that Donald Trump, world's greatest genius, hates EMALS.

[Jacob]

Yeah, the fist is just how the PLA salutes.

[Sheilbh]

Is that just the old communist/leftie raised fist or is there a specific meaning in the PLA/China?

[Jacob]

Is that just the old communist/leftie raised fist or is there a specific meaning in the PLA/China?

Turns out I was confidently wrong. The PLA has a normal looking flat hand salute similar to the Royal Navy and US military.

The raised fist thing is, I suppose, some sort of old communist/leftie salute that they use at different times for historical reasons.

[Zoupa]

This goes pretty hard.

[Zanza]

The Chinese stock market is at a five year low and has lost 6.3 trillion dollar over the last two years. The government now blocked some institutional investors from selling stocks, stopped short selling and will inject 280 billion (from state owned enterprises) into the stock market. I am sure that will strengthen investors confidence. 

[Jacob]

I'm in two minds about this...

On one hand, I am absolutely prone to schadenfreude when it comes to Xi's China.

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that a massive shock to the Chinese economy would suck for a lot of people across the world.

[Josquius]

In for a penny in for a pound?
Better it crashes so completely the chinese debt collectors around the world get a "lol no"?

[Jacob]

In for a penny in for a pound?
Better it crashes so completely the chinese debt collectors around the world get a "lol no"?

How much of an impact do you think a shock like that would have on global and our local economies and standards of living?

[Syt]

Is China still a major money lender? Any chance of them calling in loans?

[HVC]

America owes almost a trillion, but I don't know if it can be called early. Many African countries are also in debt, but I doubt they could pay out if needed.

[Josquius]

America owes almost a trillion, but I don't know if it can be called early. Many African countries are also in debt, but I doubt they could pay out if needed.

China can seize the assets they paid for. Some say this was the intent all along. They did it with Sri Lanka.

[crazy canuck]

America owes almost a trillion, but I don't know if it can be called early. Many African countries are also in debt, but I doubt they could pay out if needed.

China can seize the assets they paid for. Some say this was the intent all along. They did it with Sri Lanka.

Yeah, I have read analysis that was the goal of Belt and Road initiative all along.