Dutch elections

[Maladict]

Forgot to make a pre-election poll.

Massive win for Wilders based on exit polls. I feel sick.

[Sheilbh]

Seat projection - not sure what the workable coalitions are here?

[Josquius]

Just read about this earlier and was sad and angry we didn't get a traditional picture poll.

So. The Netherlands aren't cool anymore?
How does culture warry fascism work in a land already beneath sea level?

[Maladict]

Wilders would probably prefer NSC and VVD. NSC has repeatedly stated they don't want that. Plus, that coalition will have a very small minority in the senate.

If Wilders can't make it work, PvdA/GL + VVD + NSC + D66 might work but will ask big compromises of all parties.

Then there's BBB, holding a massive numbers of seats in the senate but seemingly doomed to lose them at the next elections. Still, it's a big bargaining chip for now.

[Maladict]

Just read about this earlier and was sad and angry we didn't get a traditional picture poll.

Sorry 😔

So. The Netherlands aren't cool anymore?
How does culture warry fascism work in a land already beneath sea level?

The worst thing is we don't get to gloat about other countries' horrendous elections anymore 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

could have been worse

[Sheilbh]

The worst thing is we don't get to gloat about other countries' horrendous elections anymore 

Sad to say no-one's special in a good or bad way. We're all being buffetted by the same forces - and I don't see much reason to think it'll stop any time soon

Again I can't help but think of all the talk about PASOKification and the collapse of the European centre-left, which was true. But they're now (with exceptions) changing, stabilising and even recovering (even PASOK is back ahead of SYRIZA, which is in turn now led by a former investment banker because plus ca change...). But the Netherlands is on a growing list of European countries where the radical right have overtaken the mainstream traditional centre-right. I don't think anywhere near as much attention has been paid to this as was to the collapse of social democratic parties. Don't think we've had the PASOK moment yet where it really lands and people spot it.

Thanks on coalitions. Makes sense - any possibility of getting BBB in a coalition because of how well they did in the Senate and provincial elections?

I wonder if the NSC might have done better if they'd been upfront about who they wanted as PM. Or maybe not but from a UK perspective that whole approach seemed very odd.

[Admiral Yi]

Sorry 😔

Did we miss any hotties?

[Maladict]

I wonder if the NSC might have done better if they'd been upfront about who they wanted as PM. Or maybe not but from a UK perspective that whole approach seemed very odd.

Well he is a bit of an odd figure. But yeah, maybe.

It's mostly VVD catastrophically overplaying their hand. Calling early elections to get right wing coalition partners. Instead they're going to be one.

And you're probably right about the left. Here's to Labour turning the tide

[Maladict]

Sorry 😔

Did we miss any hotties?

[Admiral Yi]

 

[Sheilbh]

It's mostly VVD catastrophically overplaying their hand. Calling early elections to get right wing coalition partners. Instead they're going to be one.

And you're probably right about the left. Here's to Labour turning the tide

I think the Timmermans PvdA-GL project is quite interesting. I could be totally wrong but I read that as doubling down on graduate, public sector worker style left, pro-European, not particularly radical, focused on climate - or to frame it more negatively not focusing on the old, traditional PvdA vote. As I say that could be nonsense - but if it's not, I'm not sure it's the right choice but I'm also not 100% sure it's wrong

I think the VVD result is interesting because I think they've said they're open to a coalition with the PVV (but not a Wilders premiership, I think). Because I think if the PASOKification story of Europe's left has been about the centre-left heartlands crumbling and often going to the radical right, I think the story on the right - in Sweden, in Italy, in France, in Switzerland) - has been opening the door to the radical right and then getting overtaken. And apropos of nothing, I'd just add that on the European level there are factions in the EPP who want to work a lot more closely with Meloni, often with the argument that she's not populist (she is, I would object, neo-fascist ) - and I don't think they could be more wrong. I think that's a big part of what's happening on the right.

[Maladict]

I think the Timmermans PvdA-GL project is quite interesting. I could be totally wrong but I read that as doubling down on graduate, public sector worker style left, pro-European, not particularly radical, focused on climate - or to frame it more negatively not focusing on the old, traditional PvdA vote. As I say that could be nonsense - but if it's not, I'm not sure it's the right choice but I'm also not 100% sure it's wrong

I like Timmermans a lot but I thought he would be too divisive, too elitist. Too unable to draw votes from the right, or even the centre.

I think the VVD result is interesting because I think they've said they're open to a coalition with the PVV (but not a Wilders premiership, I think). Because I think if the PASOKification story of Europe's left has been about the centre-left heartlands crumbling and often going to the radical right, I think the story on the right - in Sweden, in Italy, in France, in Switzerland) - has been opening the door to the radical right and then getting overtaken.

Yeah, that seems to be what happened. The new VVD leader has just stated she doesn't expect Wilders to be able to build a coalition. But it's his job now to try.

[Jacob]

Sheilbh - so the centre left is losing to the radical right, and the centre right is being eaten by the radical right as well.

I guess the radical right is inevitably going to triumph, then?

[Maladict]

Sheilbh - so the centre left is losing to the radical right, and the centre right is being eaten by the radical right as well.

I guess the radical right is inevitably going to triumph, then?

I don't know if traditional left-right is really applicable. It's more a massive populist win, not all of it is radical right.