2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[FunkMonk]

Yeah, Sanders was able to harness some of that same "angry voter" energy Trump did in 2016. It explained some Bernie Bros who said they would vote for Trump instead of Clinton.

That section of the radical left is very weird. For example, my brother, who was a big Bernie supporter, is now a supporter of RFK Jr.

I don't talk politics much with my brother   

[Sheilbh]

Understandable.

Purely from online, but I always think attitudes to Warren are a pretty good tell. Obviously she was quite popular with a lot of Bernie supporters once. The Bernie Bros who went full in on "she's a snake" in 2020 seem to me more often than not to be the ones who've developed in some quite peculiar ways in the last few years.

[Jacob]

Yeah, Sanders was able to harness some of that same "angry voter" energy Trump did in 2016. It explained some Bernie Bros who said they would vote for Trump instead of Clinton.

That section of the radical left is very weird. For example, my brother, who was a big Bernie supporter, is now a supporter of RFK Jr.

I don't talk politics much with my brother 

I guess for some folks, they're attracted to "the system is rotten, we've seen through it, and here's our hero to fix it" narratives more than any particulars of the rotten elements or the proposed fixes.

[Josquius]

I've heard of this kind of crazy being a big thing in France too.
When the far left is knocked out switch to supporting the far right.
Because who cares if they stand for everything the left is against and are ultimate beasts of the establishment.  They say the right populist lines.

[Jacob]

Anecdote time:

In my last year of highschool white power bullshit was surging a bit in Ontario. I got involved with our local Anti-Racist Action group.

One summer the white power movement organized a racist punk show in town, bussing in supporters. We organized a counter protest, which was very well attended. As the show wound down, it turned into street fighting culminating with a bit of a brawl just by parliament hill. It was a big deal and got a lot of attention in the local press, as you'd expect. That also meant massive attendance to our meetings and general interest from all kinds of people.

Anyhow... some friends and I were out at the bar and there was some kid along who was interested in joining. Not sure where he'd come from. Over the course of the afternoon he takes the time to pull out a big pocket knife and showing it off to everyone, one by one in a "isn't that fucking cool" way.

Our reaction was pretty much uniformly "WTF, no. Put that away. This is not about stabbing people."

He didn't show up again. However, a few weeks later it turned out he'd started hanging out with the local white power skinheads instead.

[Jacob]

I've heard of this kind of crazy being a big thing in France too.
When the far left is knocked out switch to supporting the far right.
Because who cares if they stand for everything the left is against and are ultimate beasts of the establishment.  They say the right populist lines.

Yeah, for some folks it's about anger at the establishment and the world-as-is, rather than the specifics of the solution.

[Sheilbh]

I've heard of this kind of crazy being a big thing in France too.
When the far left is knocked out switch to supporting the far right.
Because who cares if they stand for everything the left is against and are ultimate beasts of the establishment.  They say the right populist lines.

I think in France it's more staying at home not turning out for a republican front in the second round. Although if you are a voter who cares aboutsome cultural issues and migration etc on the left - then Macron's Interior Minister has accused Le Pen of being "soft on Islam" and has tried to outflank her. So if those are your big issues, it is more difficult to justify.

This is a danger - which I think is quite common in the Eurozone because of the fiscal rules - of not providing alternatives within the mainstream. Kicking out the bums is a really core democratic principle and if you basically wipe out the centre left and centre right and just have one super-party, it may help consolidate support against the extremes for a while.

But at some point there'll be a change election and the only alternatives will be the radical right or left. I think it's a danger of that sort of "grand coalition" politics is that the only place from which you can oppose is with the extremes. It can work for a while in a response to a specific set of circumstances but is dangerous if it becomes the norm. You always need meaningful choice and difference for voters.

[Jacob]

Yeah agreed. I have a couple of observations on that, but I'll take it to the EU thread.

[DGuller]

He didn't show up again. However, a few weeks later it turned out he'd started hanging out with the local white power skinheads instead.

That's a cool anecdote, and it supports something I've suspected for a while:  some people are radicals who then find a cause to be radical about, rather than the people who found a cause first and then became radicalized by it.  Like with that dude with a knife, I think people who legitimately care about their cause should be careful about accepting useful phychos into their ranks.

[HVC]

Some reason story makes me think of a police plant. Random dude shows up after conflict making news.

[Jacob]

That's a cool anecdote, and it supports something I've suspected for a while:  some people are radicals who then find a cause to be radical about, rather than the people who found a cause first and then became radicalized by it.  Like with that dude with a knife,

Yeah... that's a thing I basically "know to be true." I think there's been a bunch of studies about people's needs (especially young men's need) to "belong to something" and provide a sense of purpose - especially if the other things that might provide structure in their lives is absent. Whether that becomes football hooliganism, political activism of whatever stripe, crime, the military, or something else.

It certainly matches my own anecdotal observations. A sense of belonging is a powerful thing.

I think people who legitimately care about their cause should be careful about accepting useful phychos into their ranks.

If only it was that simple. But yeah.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah... that's a thing I basically "know to be true." I think there's been a bunch of studies about people's needs (especially young men's need) to "belong to something" and provide a sense of purpose - especially if the other things that might provide structure in their lives is absent. Whether that becomes football hooliganism, political activism of whatever stripe, crime, the military, or something else.

It certainly matches my own anecdotal observations. A sense of belonging is a powerful thing.

Yeah and also a big part of radicalisation by violent extremists/terrorsts (both Islamist and far right). We haven't seen them in a while but I imagine it's also true of violent left-wing radicals like the Red Brigades or even further back in the early 20th century, and ironically, anarchists.

[Jacob]

Yeah and also a big part of radicalisation by violent extremists/terrorsts (both Islamist and far right). We haven't seen them in a while but I imagine it's also true of violent left-wing radicals like the Red Brigades or even further back in the early 20th century, and ironically, anarchists.

Yeah I'm confident it's the same mechanism.

I wonder how long before we start seeing the reemergence of violent left-wing radicals.

[Admiral Yi]

The talking...er, mouths on NPR are talking up Nicki Hailey's rise in the polls.

[Barrister]

The talking...er, mouths on NPR are talking up Nicki Hailey's rise in the polls.

I mean - it's something at least.

But Trump is up 50 points on Haley!  Nationally (I know) it's Trump 58, Haley 7.