2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD

[alfred russel]

So it turns out that Trump support seems to have become something of a poison pill.

Good thing the Senate held him to account for his attempted insurrection instead of letting Mitch demand they give him a pass "until later".

The Senate acquitted him. Weird definition of "held him to account".

[Admiral Yi]

The Senate acquitted him. Weird definition of "held him to account".

As much as Throbby's stalking and holding grudges tire me out, I'm going to score this round for him.  The impeachment trial, and I would argue to a greater extent the Jan 6 hearings, have been part of the process of turning the public against Trump.

[Berkut]

I'll say this before Tuesday and we get the results of the election. This is completely wrong. There are only two things worth doing: doing things that achieve results, and doing things that achieve electoral advantage. The trial only achieved a Trump acquittal and it looks like now that no republican is paying much of a price for supporting Trump. Certainly not in a competitive senate race.

[alfred russel]

I'll say this before Tuesday and we get the results of the election. This is completely wrong. There are only two things worth doing: doing things that achieve results, and doing things that achieve electoral advantage. The trial only achieved a Trump acquittal and it looks like now that no republican is paying much of a price for supporting Trump. Certainly not in a competitive senate race.

I thought things would go worse for democrats than they did. However, in the brightest possible spot of the election, the US Senate, the democrats lost every race in a state that Trump won in 2020. If all the uncalled races break the democrats way, they won the states that the Biden won however. Since Trump carried 25 states in 2020, that is certainly not a path to a majority.

Not a single republican incumbent lost, although Murkowski who was one of the few to vote to convict trump, is currently behind to a more conservative republican in Alaska (I think she probably wins). So it is kind of hard to say that there were benefits reaped from putting republican senators to a tough vote.

Why didn't Republicans do better? In midterm elections the out party tends pick up seats. There was Dobbs, but also look at the people the republicans nominated. To take Georgia as an example, a state Biden won, Herschel Walker is arguably the worst candidate to run for any office in this country or any other. We will find out in December if he wins, but in terms of hte overall environment every statewide office was won by Republicans in Georgia. This was a state that Biden won in 2020. You have another candidate talking in New Hampshire talking about democrats putting litter boxes in schools to accommodate furries, Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania, Masters in Arizona who got funding pulled by Mitch McConnell because of his asshattery.

If the premise is that the Democrats had effective leadership because they have so far won all the senate seats in states Biden won while losing all the races in states he didn't, I don't accept that. The Republicans clearly get an F. That doesn't mean Democrats should get better than a D.

[Admiral Yi]

The Democrats beat the spread.

[alfred russel]

The Democrats beat the spread.

The spread on the morning of November 8, 2022? Yes they did.

The spread on Jan 21, 2021 when Biden was taking office and direction was being set? I think they lost to that spread. I don't know of a place where senate / house odds were available to bet that early to show for sure, but the 2024 presidential market back then had republicans in the low 40s. Now they are at 55% to win.

[Josquius]

Biden saying be will stand for re-election.
This seems sort of unwise given his age and now damaged position as a uncontroversial centrist.
But I guess the dems have failed in what should have been a major goal of grooming a successor. Harris has vanished off the face of the earth

[Valmy]

The Democrats beat the spread.

The spread on the morning of November 8, 2022? Yes they did.

The spread on Jan 21, 2021 when Biden was taking office and direction was being set? I think they lost to that spread. I don't know of a place where senate / house odds were available to bet that early to show for sure, but the 2024 presidential market back then had republicans in the low 40s. Now they are at 55% to win.

So everybody was assuming that Biden was going to have gains in the midterms despite that very rarely ever happening in US political history? Huh. Gamblers are sure stupid.

I mean most of the stuff he promised to do he did, and the stuff he failed to do he at least attempted with his tiny majorities. And what? He was supposed to go off in a vastly different direction than the platform he campaigned and won on? I think the Democratic base would have been upset. And it's not like there is this vast pool of voters that can be won over. A huge number of voters are not going to vote Democrat no matter what they do, so chasing them at the expense of the base sounds like a strategy to repeat 2010...and 1994.

Besides a huge component is overcoming the shitty world economy which is largely outside the US President's ability to control. Which is also why I think odds of 2024 in 2021 or 2022 are worthless. A lot will be determined by just how things happen to be going regardless of what anybody does.

[Valmy]

Biden saying be will stand for re-election.
This seems sort of unwise given his age and now damaged position as a uncontroversial centrist.
But I guess the dems have failed in what should have been a major goal of grooming a successor. Harris has vanished off the face of the earth

Having a successor lined up hasn't worked well yet. I vastly prefer we get out candidate more organically.

Besides there weren't really any rising stars to get. Harris was never going to be the successor, her performance in the 2020 Primary made that clear.

[Eddie Teach]

I'm not quite sure who taught you about the birds and the bees, but it might be time for a bit of a refresher...

It's 2022 man, a girl can have two dads.

Alas, she's just married.

[Eddie Teach]

Harris was chosen to tick boxes, always a poor qualification.

[celedhring]

Biden was always going to say that - even if in the end he doesn't run for whatever cooked up reason. The moment he says he's just a one-termer he becomes a lame duck.

[Admiral Yi]

The spread on the morning of November 8, 2022? Yes they did.

The spread on Jan 21, 2021 when Biden was taking office and direction was being set? I think they lost to that spread. I don't know of a place where senate / house odds were available to bet that early to show for sure, but the 2024 presidential market back then had republicans in the low 40s. Now they are at 55% to win.

Inflation didn't start until into 21.

[Admiral Yi]

And turning against Trump and turning against the GOP are two different things.

[The Larch]

damaged position as a uncontroversial centrist

What?