2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD

[Jacob]

Whatever foibles the US may have, they're a cornerstone of global democracy. If the US goes to autocracy, the rest of us will definitely feel it - especially up here in Canada.

[The Brain]

Whatever foibles the US may have, they're a cornerstone of global democracy. If the US goes to autocracy, the rest of us will definitely feel it - especially up here in Canada.

I don't think the US will go autocratic any time soon. A kinda pedestrian authoritarian system seems much more likely to me. There is no obvious candidate for US autocrat (someone with the cunning and strength to grab absolute power) that I know of.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Video of a Bill Maher standup this weekend on the state of the country and how democracy is likely ending--I largely agree with it:

*snipped for brevity*

Saw that one too yesterday. Nothing cheery there. A few days earlier an op-ed piece in a local news-source was about the democracy-fatigue in Flanders/Belgium/EU. One of the points the writer of that piece was making is that voters lose democratic fervour as more and more come to the conclusion that their votes matter less and less.
Something that is especially a problem in growing parts of Europe where the EU just does as it pleases, the national goverments can often not do anything much at all due to coalitions/vested interests/EU/NGOs/lobbyists/etc (rightly or wrongly, because we all know the union is used as a scapegoat often enough).
Anyway, you get the drift.

The result being that people will vote for more outlying or even extreme parties. Of course these end up not being able to do much either in most cases. This then strengthens the feeling that democracy doesn't work at all anymore, leading to more people giving up on the concept.

Anyway, it'll get worse before it gets better again.

[Josquius]

I would like to hope America is just needing to ride out a storm at the minute with boomers dying and more people who can handle the Internet turning 18.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I would like to hope America is just needing to ride out a storm at the minute with boomers dying and more people who can handle the Internet turning 18.

https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/youthanddemocracy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/12/08/yes-millennials-really-are-surprisingly-approving-of-dictators/

Seems it's those older people who are more invested in democracy than the younger generations though. No wonder as the old people are those capable of living in a society with multitudes of viewpoints, being unable to 'swipe' them away.

[Gups]

I would like to hope America is just needing to ride out a storm at the minute with boomers dying and more people who can handle the Internet turning 18.

Apart from the internert (not sure why that is relevant), people have bene saying something along these lines since the boomers were kids. They're always wrong.

[crazy canuck]

I would like to hope America is just needing to ride out a storm at the minute with boomers dying and more people who can handle the Internet turning 18.

Apart from the internert (not sure why that is relevant), people have bene saying something along these lines since the boomers were kids. They're always wrong.

I don't recall anyone suggesting that democracy in the US was in peril until now.

[Barrister]

Saw that one too yesterday. Nothing cheery there. A few days earlier an op-ed piece in a local news-source was about the democracy-fatigue in Flanders/Belgium/EU. One of the points the writer of that piece was making is that voters lose democratic fervour as more and more come to the conclusion that their votes matter less and less.

Same thing in US, and lesser extent Canada.

People will pull out surveys stating that large majorities of Americans are concerned about democracy.  But a lot of those respondents are voting Republican, and the concern they have about democracy is more about corporate donations / "cancel culture" and the like.

And I know there's an undercurrent out in the prairies that despite the fact the Conservatives have gotten a bigger share of the vote the last two elections, we keep getting governments that seem outwardly hostile to the prairies and use Alberta in particular as a foil in their messaging.  Thus leading to support for independence (though still low) and stupid freedom convoys.

[garbon]

I would like to hope America is just needing to ride out a storm at the minute with boomers dying and more people who can handle the Internet turning 18.

Apart from the internert (not sure why that is relevant), people have bene saying something along these lines since the boomers were kids. They're always wrong.

I don't recall anyone suggesting that democracy in the US was in peril until now.

Yeah that seemed a bit much.

[Josquius]

I would like to hope America is just needing to ride out a storm at the minute with boomers dying and more people who can handle the Internet turning 18.

Apart from the internert (not sure why that is relevant), people have bene saying something along these lines since the boomers were kids. They're always wrong.

You don't get how the Internet is relevant to the current post truth reality?
It's literally the major factor. If it isn't relevant I don't know what is.

And quite the opposite that people are always wrong. It goes back further than boomers too.

It's a pretty well observed that

1: the introduction of new communications technology is usually followed by a period of instability and a rise in extremism. Arguably this goes way back to the printing press. With less of a stretch it certainly goes back to the OG fascists and how they exploited then cutting edge new technologies to spread their message.
2: Research is pretty strong that those who grew up with the internet are on average far more conscious users who are less liable to be taken in by misinformation.

[Gups]

I hadn't understood J to be referring to the preilous state of American democracy in particular, just the general state of American politics and the likelihood of Republican victories. In any event, I'm pretty sure people have worried about democracy in America at regular intervals since 1776 - FDR standing for a 3rd term; Watergate, the military-industrial complex, the political murders in the 1960s.

It does feel worse now though I concede. At least since the ACW, losing parties have accepted the results. 

[Jacob]

I personally feel like American democracy is in peril. Hopefully it turns out that my fears don't come to pass, but I'm definitely worried.

[Gups]

I would like to hope America is just needing to ride out a storm at the minute with boomers dying and more people who can handle the Internet turning 18.

Apart from the internert (not sure why that is relevant), people have bene saying something along these lines since the boomers were kids. They're always wrong.

You don't get how the Internet is relevant to the current post truth reality?
It's literally the major factor. If it isn't relevant I don't know what is.

And quite the opposite that people are always wrong. It goes back further than boomers too.

It's a pretty well observed that

1: the introduction of new communications technology is usually followed by a period of instability and a rise in extremism. Arguably this goes way back to the printing press. With less of a stretch it certainly goes back to the OG fascists and how they exploited then cutting edge new technologies to spread their message.
2: Research is pretty strong that those who grew up with the internet are on average far more conscious users who are less liable to be taken in by misinformation.

Is there evidence that the under 40s are less partisan than older people? Looking at the Yougov poll on Qanon support, there is little difference between the age groups. 32% of 65 years+ believed senior Dems were involved in child sex trafficking rings. 31% of 29-44s and 29% of both 45-64 years olds and 18-29s.

Meanwhile older people were slighly less likely to believe in a deep state conspiracy than younger people.

Older people were substantially less likely to beleieve that vaccines caused autism than younger people

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/30/which-groups-americans-believe-conspiracies

[garbon]

Apparently Millenials and Gen Z are unlikely to identify with either party and an increasing amount of Millenials note they are independents.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/397241/millennials-gen-clinging-independent-party.aspx

[Barrister]

Ok, so I haven't been paying attention to U.S. politics. But I'm pretty sure just a few months ago, the consensus was the Democrats were going to do quite well, that the abortion decision swung things there way. Now that's not the case. What happened? Inflation shit?

So this wasn't my analysis, I'm paraphrasing someone I heard on a podcast, but can't remember who or which one:

In the spring and summer the GOP was running strong based on issues of inflation and crime, with a side of 'the out party always does well in midterms', whereas the Dems were upset with Biden for nto getting a bunch of his biggest priorities done.

Some September though Democrats "came home", and started supporting Biden again.  This caused an increase in Dems poll numbers.

But this was always going to happen.  If you looked at Dems increasing poll numbers, and projected that increase through to November, then you could see the Dems doing quite well.  But there had been no fundamental change in the race and the "coming home" Democrat vpters were a limited group.