The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan

[Sheilbh]

Only one poll etc etc - but

[The Larch]

More than a handful of salt is needed for that poll, given that it comes from possibly the most despicable media source in the country.

[Sheilbh]

More than a handful of salt is needed for that poll, given that it comes from possibly the most despicable media source in the country.

I hope so although presumably that's a reputable polling company, looking at the Wiki their previous polls don't look that out of whack. It seems like Vox have been floating around 17-20% this year so maybe it shouldn't be a shock to see them so high, though it still is - especially given they didn't really matter at all politically just 5 years ago.

That poll feels very much like someone who doesn't like the PP (understandable) got hold of a monkey's paw

Edit: Apparently another poll showing Vox in second place tomorrow (in El Espanol I think). It's hard to think how any of these shenanigans and cunning plans could have gone worse for the PP.

[The Larch]

In a few months it might not mean anything at all, as right now there are no elections in sight (closest ones are the Andalusian regional elections in October) and PP will bounce from this low point. It remains to be seen what kind of PP will be the one to bounce, though, as I think this whole affair has made Casado a dead man walking. There's no way he'll continue leading the party and will be given the boot as soon as PP hold their national conference (originally expected for the summer, but which might get pushed ahead given the crisis), which apparently many regional leaders are asking for in order to do a complete renovation of the party's leadership.

What remains to be seen is if this affair will also cost Ayuso her spot. Apparently she's the one who has "won" it, given that Casado's attempt to knife her in the back didn't fully succeed, but she has admitted to blatant corruption, something that inside PP is overlooked, as it's almost a given, but it will be a huge issue in any new election, either regional or national, unless a massive media operation to swoop it under the table is undertaken.

[The Larch]

And this morning around 3 thousand people gathered in fron of PP's HQ (the infamous Génova street building that they announced one year ago they'd get rid of, but sitll haven't done so) in order to support Ayuso and demand Casado's resignation.

[celedhring]

What remains to be seen is if this affair will also cost Ayuso her spot. Apparently she's the one who has "won" it, given that Casado's attempt to knife her in the back didn't fully succeed, but she has admitted to blatant corruption, something that inside PP is overlooked, as it's almost a given, but it will be a huge issue in any new election, either regional or national, unless a massive media operation to swoop it under the table is undertaken.

She's not addmited to it, to be honest, just essentially given a non-answer that will be enough for her partisans to sweep the whole thing under the carpet. She's got the same Teflon armor as Trump.

And she won't be prosecuted unless there's a smoking gun somewhere, and I guess there isn't.

[The Larch]

What remains to be seen is if this affair will also cost Ayuso her spot. Apparently she's the one who has "won" it, given that Casado's attempt to knife her in the back didn't fully succeed, but she has admitted to blatant corruption, something that inside PP is overlooked, as it's almost a given, but it will be a huge issue in any new election, either regional or national, unless a massive media operation to swoop it under the table is undertaken.

She's not addmited to it, to be honest, just essentially given a non-answer that will be enough for her partisans to sweep the whole thing under the carpet. She's got the same Teflon armor as Trump.

And she won't be prosecuted unless there's a smoking gun somewhere, and I guess there isn't.

I wouldn't be so sure, I don't think she has escaped unescathed. At the very least her closet's door has opened a bit and a glimpse has been taken at her accumulated skeletons. She has a vulnerability now, and the Madrid opposition (that has been after those contracts for a while) should take things to court, as well as keep investigating other possible cases (the Zendal could be  another possible front, and there's always the case of the elderly patients left to die in care homes during the pandemic's 1st wave).

On top of that, it remains to be seen how effective is that Teflon Armour and her *charm* outside Madrid. They could be surprised.

[celedhring]

What remains to be seen is if this affair will also cost Ayuso her spot. Apparently she's the one who has "won" it, given that Casado's attempt to knife her in the back didn't fully succeed, but she has admitted to blatant corruption, something that inside PP is overlooked, as it's almost a given, but it will be a huge issue in any new election, either regional or national, unless a massive media operation to swoop it under the table is undertaken.

She's not addmited to it, to be honest, just essentially given a non-answer that will be enough for her partisans to sweep the whole thing under the carpet. She's got the same Teflon armor as Trump.

And she won't be prosecuted unless there's a smoking gun somewhere, and I guess there isn't.

I wouldn't be so sure, I don't think she has escaped unescathed. At the very least her closet's door has opened a bit and a glimpse has been taken at her accumulated skeletons. She has a vulnerability now, and the Madrid opposition (that has been after those contracts for a while) should take things to court, as well as keep investigating other possible cases (the Zendal could be  another possible front, and there's always the case of the elderly patients left to die in care homes during the pandemics 1st wave.

On top of that, it remains to be seen how effective is that Teflon Armour and her *charm* outside Madrid. They could be surprised.

Oh absolutely, ultimately her pandering politics aren't too different from the ones practised by my dear Catalan nationalists - keep your hands off our money and here's some victim complex and identity politics to make it look less crass - and the Madrid press keep confusing the whole country with the capital. The few PP voters I know around here totally despise her.

[The Larch]

She's ultimately Esperanza Aguirre 2.0, only less funny. She might be hyper successful within the boundaries of Madrid, but it's not an act with a huge potential audience outside of them.

[Zanza]

Spain was the lucky exception until a few years ago in not having an ultra-right party. Too bad it deteriorated so that Vox is now the second largest party...

[The Larch]

Spain was the lucky exception until a few years ago in not having an ultra-right party. Too bad it deteriorated so that Vox is now the second largest party...

I wouldn't really count on VOX overcoming PP in the long run. Another poll published today but with polling performed right before the scandal has them holding to 2nd spot at 21.3%, with VOX 3rd at 19.8%, and PSOE holding to 1st at 26.7%. And besides. there are no elections in sight on the short term to capitalize on any temporary boost. PP will boot Casado away, lick their wounds and go back to its role as head of the right in Spain, although featuring a festering boil.

[celedhring]

So it looks like it's going to be frijolito. I know little of him besides his penchant for keeping the company of narcos, but he appears to be a bit too "classic conservative" to appeal to the Vox crowd. Then again, I much prefer a classic conservative at the head of PP that some populist bullshitter.

Of all the major candidates in the 2019 general election, only Sánchez (who won) and Abascal remain - and that crop of candidates already was a "new generation".

[The Larch]

So it looks like it's going to be frijolito. I know little of him besides his penchant for keeping the company of narcos, but he appears to be a bit too "classic conservative" to appeal to the Vox crowd. Then again, I much prefer a classic conservative at the head of PP that some populist bullshitter.

I'm not yet 100% sure of that. Feijóo seems to want to become leader "by acclamation", without internal opposition and as a consensus candidate, and it remains to be seen if it will be that way. Some extreme "Ayusistas" seem to claim that she's the only one who can guarantee a chance of victory in a general election, even if she herself has ruled herself out from the leadership challenge at the national level (although who knows). I think she's "damaged goods" at this point, but can still keep her position in Madrid without much trouble.

On top of that, something that is being used against Feijóo, as ridiculous as it sounds, is that he's a crypto-nationalist (hillarious, I know). VOX already sniped heavily at him in the past with that argument, and now even Cs has used that line. It's truly ridiculous that for a not irrelevant sector of the Spanish right anything that is not unabashed rah rah centralism is labeled as "nationalist". Thing is, with Feijóo at the helm a PP-VOX agreement for government would be even more complicated than now, and that really reduces their chances of regaining power at the national level, which is the ultimate goal.

Regarding his style of govenrment, I'd have a few choice words about it.  It's not quite as classic conservative as you think, it's rather more low key neo-lib, without much penchant for grand proclamations, and doing stuff on the down low, without calling much attention, but moving things little by little. A bit like a political version of the frog in the increasingly hot water, so to speak. And of course, everything bad that happens is the opposition's fault, even if they don't hold any political power at all.

Of all the major candidates in the 2019 general election, only Sánchez (who won) and Abascal remain - and that crop of candidates already was a "new generation".

And it's more than likely that Cs will either dissappear or become irrelevant, while Podemos seems destined to yet another transformation into a different electoral vehicle with Yolanda Díaz fronting it in order to remain a force. It's quite disheartening that at the end of the day the only new party that could get established breaking the old PP-PSOE order is VOX. 

[Iormlund]

And it's more than likely that Cs will either dissappear or become irrelevant, while Podemos seems destined to yet another transformation into a different electoral vehicle with Yolanda Díaz fronting it in order to remain a force. It's quite disheartening that at the end of the day the only new party that could get established breaking the old PP-PSOE order is VOX. 

Because both Iglesias and Rivera tried to shift their parties away from the values their initial voters held. Abascal hasn't made the same mistake. He's an old school reactionary with a tinge of Trumpism and he sticks to it.

[celedhring]

The prosecutor has dropped charges against former king Juan Carlos. He considers there was malfeasance, but it falls on the period he was still king, and he's thus non-prosecutable. He was being investigated for corruption, fraud, and money laundering. Reading the document, it seems that the fiscal fraud part is proven - and while it can't establish strong evidence about the other crimes, it's strongly hinted at (he would have hid the money from the taxman to hide an unlawful provenance). As a public official he was also forbidden from receiving gifts.

Given that everybody is distracted with what's going on in Ukraine, this feels like an attempt to bury the news.