Game of Thrones begins....

[grumbler]

IMO no point in trying the reason logically about the Dorne plot.  The showrunners were faced with Martin's mess, got sucked into Dorne because they liked some of the characters, figured out they were in a time-sucking morass, and so arranged a hand-wavey bloodbath to bring it all to an immediate conclusion.  Dorne will play whatever role is convenient at the writers at this point, without regard to logical consistency which fled that vicinity long ago.

Agreed.  I doubt that we will see another Dornishman for the rest of the season (the actress who played Ellaria has already said she has no more scenes).  Dorne was a mess, but it was worth it to see Pedro Pascal as Oberyn Martell.

[grumbler]

Is quiburn a poison enthusiast? A friend has the theory that the spear was poisoned. Seems intriguing.

Bron did not seem to be particularly careful handling the bolts for the ballista, as he would be if they were poisoned.

[Fate]

The spear wasn't poisoned. One of her three dragons will die by the end of the season though. Varys isn't a traitor, this season at least. And...

#Boatsexiscoming

[viper37]

jamie never said that the Unsullied were in hostile territory with no supplies.  In fact, I don't recall him ever mentioning the Unsullied.

Yes, when he spoke to lady Tyrell.

And if you think that the Reach is like the Middle-Eastern desert, you haven't been paying attention.  It is (a) allied with Danis (less some traitor houses with Randell Tarley) and (b) the most fertile land in Westeros, as has been said many  times.  And the far larger army of Dothraki didn't exactly march like the Crusaders to Hattin, in exactly that area.  So, your "doomed to failure" should read "bound to succeed."  You need to pay more attention to the show.

The Dothraki are like the Mongols.  The Unsullied are heavily armed infantry walking slowly.  They are a forced to be reckoned, but they would be vulnerable to hit&run tacticts by a small cavalry bands or a few archers and a few infantry in key spots along the way.

The dragons crossed the sea from Slaver's Bay to Dragonstone.  I think they can fly a few hundred miles to the Westlands.

They rested on the ships from time to time.  Drogo was injured, but he did stop after a while to rest, stranding Dani.

They destroy ships in moments.  Euron wouldn't even win a night battle. His ships have no defenses whatsoever against dragons, and Dani would once again control the seas.

He doesn't need to win, he needs to destroy the ships where Dani is and the war is over.  Do you think the Dothraki will follow Tyrion?

None of this says that such a plan is impossible.  It surely was an option.  Not the best option, but not clearly impossible.  You claimed that your three otions were the only ones possible, and that it was easy to see that Dani could only attack Jamie's army.  I am pointing out that you lack imagination if you think that is true.

It's impossible if you think like a general: you don't want to leave a well supplied army in the open, you want to destroy it.  It's either attack them on the road, or attack them once they're in King's Landing.  The second plans implies heavier casualties on both sides but would probably win the war, yet Dani is reluctant, as per the advice of Jon, to be perceived as "like the others".  You raise people telling them all their life they're special, they tend to think so

He said exactly what Tyriion said, advice which she had already rejected.  It was a missed opportunity to advance the plot, and wouldn't have "wrecked the show" (as you claimed) at all.

It was rejected because it came from Tyrion.  You said it yourself: there is likely a traitor in her ranks.  She is starting to realize this: either someone is spying for Cersei in her ranks (or her allies ranks) or she has a very keen sense of strategy and is able to guess precisely their movement and when they make their move.  I guess it could be possible the Ironborne being very gifted sailor have some kind of fast spy ship observing the movements of the Targaryan fleet and reporting it to Euron, too.

But still, the logical explanation at this point is, she is being betrayed.  Tyrion is a Lannister, she doesn't really know him, and so far, as ruler of Mereen in her absence, he didn't fare so well.  She suspects he still serves his family.  She may not have thought it through as it seems it was more in anger than after a careful analysis, but that explains why she rejects his idea but acknowledge Jon Snow's suggestion, that happens to be the same.  yet, she does not want to sit idle in her Castle, that's not in her nature.  Therefore, the only logical conclusion is that she's going to attack the convoy.  Add that Tyrion said they had enough ships to move the Dothraki, and it becomes a foregone conclusion that a detachment of Dothrakis and at least one dragon are going to ambush the convoy.

That's pretty much the definition of post hoc! 

Well, unfortunately, I can not guess what happens before I see events leading to it.  But as I said, it was a foregone conclusion that she would attack the convoy.

when Tyrion described how the Unsullied were going to take Casterly Rock?  Because that was exactly the kind of thing I am recommending the showrunners do.

That's totally not the same.  You can not guess there is a secret entrance to Casterly Rock, since we've never seen the place.  And this particular plot revolves around knowing the secret passage.  I did not expect the castle to be valmost empty though, I really thought this was to be a real, big victory for Daenerys.

her prejudice against him as a simple Northern barbarian.

She does not see him as a simple Northern Barbarian.  But all her life, she has been told her family was great, her brother was the greatest, daddy was a wonderful king and some bastards uprooted him from his legitimate throne.  To her, Jon Snow is a simple rebel that needs to be brought back into the fold.  She does not consider him stupid or barbarian, but she considers him her subject and she expects fealty, just like that, because that's how she's been raised. 

As of now, he has done precisely nothing to help her other than to back up Tyrion's advice not to attack cities with dragons (and she is fed up with Tyrion).

Wich shows that he is even tempered, the ice to her fire...

She never had more than one (small) Lannister to feed!    She mentioned the need for food for her own army.

As I said, I had forgotten that everyone knew of the Winter and that it was coming for all of Westeros, not just the North, I was trying to make a graceful exit, thank you

The leadership of the Iron Islands is settled by vote, not inheritance.  I am sure Dani would like to see Yara Greyjoy freed, but see no chance she would trade Jamie for her.

ah, well, they're pretty much fucked then, unless Theon can find a way to convince her.  We'll see.

Stricken as non-responsive.  The Dornish situation as an independent nation at the time of Conquest is totally unrelated to their situation in the present war against the Lannisters.

It is: they still tell themselves these stories how they never surrended to the Great Aegon the Conquerer and his dragons.

The "they" that spent 20 years patiently plotting for revenge for the death of Ilya martell are dead, killed by the Sand Snakes.  The Sand Snakes supposedly had the support of the people, because they were not going to wait to take revenge, but rather get their revenge now. Haven't you been paying attention at all?

We have see no indication they truly have support of the people.  That is what they said, and they may believe it, but it does not mean it is true.  Didn't Viscerion tought the people of Westeros would welcome him with open arms once he landed there with an army to reconquer his throne from the usurper?  That wasn't exactly the mindset of the people there...

More evidence that you just haven't been paying attention.  There's always an heir.  Even if they have to go back a few generations to find the heir, they will.  Check out how Henri IV of France was related to his predecessor, Henri III:  they were only connected via Louis IX, fourteen generations earlier!  it is, of course, easier in Dorne where woman can inherit.

And look at the history of England, with multiple heirs to the Throne... for all we know, it could be civil war over there.

The heirs of those people have exactly the same basic motives to ally with her as Ellaria Sand and Olenna Tyrell, though, perhaps, without their passion (but with the new motive of wanting to avenge Ellaria and Olenna).  Dani could spend time recruiting those heirs.  She didn't, but it is unimaginative in the extreme to not even think of that as an option.

She does not have time, the Lannister army is on the move.  If they reach King's Landing, they have a full army with all their supplies and they are unlikely to surrender.

[grumbler]

Yes, when he spoke to lady Tyrell.

You could be more obscure, but I doubt it.

The Dothraki are like the Mongols.  The Unsullied are heavily armed infantry walking slowly.  They are a forced to be reckoned, but they would be vulnerable to hit&run tacticts by a small cavalry bands or a few archers and a few infantry in key spots along the way.

So?  The Lannisters have almost no cvalry (we have seen their army all spread out before us) and infantry would be meat to the Unsullied grinder.  You still haven't addressed your argument that moving through the reach would be like the Crusaders moving through the desert to Hattin.

They rested on the ships from time to time.  Drogo was injured, but he did stop after a while to rest, stranding Dani.

When did you see them resting on ships?  How often did they do this in the 3,000 mile or so voyage?  Drogo was, I believe, Bilbo's father.

He doesn't need to win, he needs to destroy the ships where Dani is and the war is over.  Do you think the Dothraki will follow Tyrion?

he is not going to die and have his fleet annihilated to attack a ship that may or may not have Dani in it, and is full of Dothraki bodyguards anyway.  There is NO WAY Euron is attacking a fleet supported by dragons.  No.  Way.

It's impossible if you think like a general: you don't want to leave a well supplied army in the open, you want to destroy it.  It's either attack them on the road, or attack them once they're in King's Landing.  The second plans implies heavier casualties on both sides but would probably win the war, yet Dani is reluctant, as per the advice of Jon, to be perceived as "like the others".  You raise people telling them all their life they're special, they tend to think so

There is no evidence, before she attacked it, that Dani even know there was an army to be attacked.  She went from "well, advisers, what should I do?" to attacking Jamie's army with no transition whatsoever.  She never mentioned attacking jamie's army in her discussions on Dragonstone.  That's exactly the poit I am making - it was a missed opportunity, and a plot hole.

It was rejected because it came from Tyrion.  You said it yourself: there is likely a traitor in her ranks.  She is starting to realize this: either someone is spying for Cersei in her ranks (or her allies ranks) or she has a very keen sense of strategy and is able to guess precisely their movement and when they make their move.  I guess it could be possible the Ironborne being very gifted sailor have some kind of fast spy ship observing the movements of the Targaryan fleet and reporting it to Euron, too.

There is no evidence that she is rejecting Tyrion's advice because she thinks he is a traitor.  She says why she rejects it:  because the status quo has her losing the war, and Tyrion is arguing for the status quo.  Making up reasons to suit your own arguments does not fly.  And it doesn't matter anyway, because my point has zero to do with what Tyrion said and everything to do with what Jon did not say, but should have (to advance the plot and fill the plot hole).

Well, unfortunately, I can not guess what happens before I see events leading to it.  But as I said, it was a foregone conclusion that she would attack the convoy.

That's pretty much the definition of post hoc! 

That's totally not the same.  You can not guess there is a secret entrance to Casterly Rock, since we've never seen the place.  And this particular plot revolves around knowing the secret passage.  I did not expect the castle to be valmost empty though, I really thought this was to be a real, big victory for Daenerys.

You can't have it both ways:  if there is a reason to show why the Unsullied succeeded at Casterly Rock, there is a reason to show why Danaerys attacked Jamie's army.  Whining that one is necesary but the other would "ruin the show" isn't logically consistent.

She does not see him as a simple Northern Barbarian.  But all her life, she has been told her family was great, her brother was the greatest, daddy was a wonderful king and some bastards uprooted him from his legitimate throne.  To her, Jon Snow is a simple rebel that needs to be brought back into the fold.  She does not consider him stupid or barbarian, but she considers him her subject and she expects fealty, just like that, because that's how she's been raised. 

Of course she sees him as a simple Northern barbarian at first.  That is evident in all of her speech with him in their first meeting.  She expects him to bend the knee because she expects all northerners to bend the knee as the simple barbarians they are.

Wich shows that he is even tempered, the ice to her fire...

Which would make a dispassionate argument to use her dragons against field armies rather than cities even more even-tempered and wise.  Lost opportunity.

ah, well, they're pretty much fucked then, unless Theon can find a way to convince her.  We'll see.

Theon is going to grow some balls and try to rescue her.  50-50 he dies in the attempt.

It is: they still tell themselves these stories how they never surrended to the Great Aegon the Conquerer and his dragons.

Stricken as non-responsive.  The Dornish situation as an independent nation at the time of Conquest is totally unrelated to their situation in the present war against the Lannisters.

We have see no indication they truly have support of the people.  That is what they said, and they may believe it, but it does not mean it is true.  Didn't Viscerion tought the people of Westeros would welcome him with open arms once he landed there with an army to reconquer his throne from the usurper?  That wasn't exactly the mindset of the people there...

Sure we have evidence that the Dornish supported them:  they were still alive to get killed or captured, after killing their king and crown prince, and they could promise a Dornish army to besiege King's Landing.  It's bullshit that this would happen like this, but there we are.

The king's bodyguard stood by while the king and his captain of guards were assassinated.  How much more plain can it get? Or weren't you paying attention?

And look at the history of England, with multiple heirs to the Throne... for all we know, it could be civil war over there.

Less likely when women can inherit, but, indeed, there could be civil war there.  There could be civil war anywhere in Westeros, and we just don't know it.  So what?

She does not have time, the Lannister army is on the move.  If they reach King's Landing, they have a full army with all their supplies and they are unlikely to surrender.

She has time to any number of things, including attacking Jamie's army.  Attacking his army was the right thing to do, but it wasn't the only possible thing to do, as you are arguing.  My point is simply that having Jon recommend that course of action would advance the plot and fill in a plot hole.  Your argument is that having Jon recommend that course of action would "wreck the show."

I think my argument more persuasive than yours.

[Josquius]

Bitch on a dragon.
Awesome.

Though.... The way she went about burning food like that.... I couldn't help but say oh no. That is really going to cost people dear come winter.
And she did it deliberately. She was targeting the food.
Yet another sign of Dany the villain.

Alas to finish GOT properly is going to take more than a single series with this path. I guess it means there'll be some sort of deus ex machina winter cancellation.

[The Minsky Moment]

Isn't the whole point of using Dothraki that they can move quickly through hostile territory?  How are they supposed to get huge lumbering carts of grain back to Dragonstone?

[Josquius]

Isn't the whole point of using Dothraki that they can move quickly through hostile territory?  How are they supposed to get huge lumbering carts of grain back to Dragonstone?

They're only a few miles from the sea.

[Admiral Yi]

I think they torched the wagons because it looked cool, not to advance any plot point.

[viper37]

You could be more obscure, but I doubt it.

When he reaches Lady Tyrell's tower, right after the fight, they discuss how Casterly Rock was abandonned, and he says the Unsullied will hold the castle for a time, but then they'll have to leave and they will be forced to march all the way back since they have no fleet, and he implies they will be attacked while on the move.

So?  The Lannisters have almost no cvalry (we have seen their army all spread out before us) and infantry would be meat to the Unsullied grinder.  You still haven't addressed your argument that moving through the reach would be like the Crusaders moving through the desert to Hattin.

They may not have cavalry, but some of their allies may.  They had cavalry before, IIRC.

When did you see them resting on ships?  How often did they do this in the 3,000 mile or so voyage?  Drogo was, I believe, Bilbo's father.

Drogon, right.  Those names.
they have a body similar to bats, bats can't fly long distance like migrating birds.

he is not going to die and have his fleet annihilated to attack a ship that may or may not have Dani in it, and is full of Dothraki bodyguards anyway.  There is NO WAY Euron is attacking a fleet supported by dragons.  No.  Way.

He may not do it himself, he may send a few ships of his massive fleet.

There is no evidence, before she attacked it, that Dani even know there was an army to be attacked. 

Varys brings her the news House Tyrell has fallen.  If they know that, they know an army is on the march, back from Highgarden.

There is no evidence that she is rejecting Tyrion's advice because she thinks he is a traitor.

Now, who's not paying attention?
She says something along the lines of "Your family, you mean"
It's clear she is beginning to suspect him, at least when angry.

That's pretty much the definition of post hoc! 

No.  Post hoc, is, upon seeing the battle, I declare "ah, that is where all that was leading us".  Making an assumption based on facts presented, like the change in music and lightning in an horror movie, or seeing two teenagers having sex in a Friday the 13th movie, that's guessing what will happen next based on facts presented to you

You can't have it both ways:  if there is a reason to show why the Unsullied succeeded at Casterly Rock, there is a reason to show why Danaerys attacked Jamie's army.  Whining that one is necesary but the other would "ruin the show" isn't logically consistent.

We can guess about the reason to attack Jamie because we see it over the course of two episodes and people talk about it.  We have never seen Casterly Rock before, all we heard is, it's a strong fortress.  Had we seen an episode where Tyrion escapes the fortress by using a secret passage in the sewers, then I would agree with you that Tyrion telling us again about the secret passage would be juste like the scene you want, logically inconsistent and would have ruined the show too.

Of course she sees him as a simple Northern barbarian at first.

Ok, maybe in a way, but not any more barbarian than the Dornish or the Tyrells: once they have sworn loyalty, they are not "simple barbarians".  She just sees Snow as someone who should recognize his authority like everyone else.  It's not that thinks he's a simple barbarian so much as everyone who doesn't swear fealty is in rebellion against her. 

Which would make a dispassionate argument to use her dragons against field armies rather than cities even more even-tempered and wise.  Lost opportunity.

He doesn't need to spell it out, it is heavily implied by everything we see.

Stricken as non-responsive.  The Dornish situation as an independent nation at the time of Conquest is totally unrelated to their situation in the present war against the Lannisters.

It's the mindset of a people who have seen other would be conquerors.

Sure we have evidence that the Dornish supported them:  they were still alive to get killed or captured, after killing their king and crown prince, and they could promise a Dornish army to besiege King's Landing.  It's bullshit that this would happen like this, but there we are.

There's a difference between what the people think and what the noble think.  The people are possibly impervious to such fights.  As we have seen a little more to the North, the people are getting fed up and start thinking all sides are the same.

The king's bodyguard stood by while the king and his captain of guards were assassinated.  How much more plain can it get? Or weren't you paying attention?

That's an handful of soldiers.

I think my argument more persuasive than yours.

my, my, what a surprise!

[viper37]

Alas to finish GOT properly is going to take more than a single series with this path. I guess it means there'll be some sort of deus ex machina winter cancellation.

come to think of it... Winter seems tied to White Walkers.  The Long Night and all that.  The more numerous the White Walkers are, the longer the Winter. Once defeated, the winter could be much less harscher.

[grumbler]

I think they torched the wagons because it looked cool, not to advance any plot point.

Precisely.  That had someone do something dumb, like spar with edged weapons or burn up supply trains, for the visuals.  It's the medium.

[Josquius]

Alas to finish GOT properly is going to take more than a single series with this path. I guess it means there'll be some sort of deus ex machina winter cancellation.

come to think of it... Winter seems tied to White Walkers.  The Long Night and all that.  The more numerous the White Walkers are, the longer the Winter. Once defeated, the winter could be much less harscher.

Definitely.
GRRM is on record saying it's magical rather than scientific. And that north of the wall suddenly gets so much colder...
Plus pretty sure it doesn't happen in Essos.

I hope they don't take the easy route of killing the others. Really hoping my idea about  the others being misunderstood in some way and a peace treaty being reached works out.

[The Minsky Moment]

Isn't the whole point of using Dothraki that they can move quickly through hostile territory?  How are they supposed to get huge lumbering carts of grain back to Dragonstone?

They're only a few miles from the sea.

???

I'm confused about geography then I thought they were somewhere in the middle of Highgarden and King's Landing.

[Josquius]

More evidence that you just haven't been paying attention.  There's always an heir.  Even if they have to go back a few generations to find the heir, they will.  Check out how Henri IV of France was related to his predecessor, Henri III:  they were only connected via Louis IX, fourteen generations earlier!  it is, of course, easier in Dorne where woman can inherit.

It is true that Dani has no immediate allies, as those individuals who have directly allied with her are dead.  The heirs of those people have exactly the same basic motives to ally with her as Ellaria Sand and Olenna Tyrell, though, perhaps, without their passion (but with the new motive of wanting to avenge Ellaria and Olenna).  Dani could spend time recruiting those heirs.  She didn't, but it is unimaginative in the extreme to not even think of that as an option.

We'll see.
Certainly in the books I can recall it often being said that Sansa is the last Stark and all.
It's a problem that I've long had with the series, I believe I mentioned it earlier in the thread, that except for the Lannisport Lannisters and the Karstarks you never hear anything of Cadet branches, the Lannisters are utter freaks from the fact that there is an uncle and cousins.
Even with the Freys you don't hear of anything beyond Walder's descendants.
About the only time I can remember complicated and realistic family stuff happening is in  the Vale with Harry the Heir (removed from the series).
Would be nice if they handle it in a realistic "Here is third cousin twice removed Geoff Tyrell" but more likely we'll see a completely unrelated named character getting The Reach, if anyone.

Isn't the whole point of using Dothraki that they can move quickly through hostile territory?  How are they supposed to get huge lumbering carts of grain back to Dragonstone?

They're only a few miles from the sea.

???

I'm confused about geography then I thought they were somewhere in the middle of Highgarden and King's Landing.

They spoke about having just shipped the gold and they were waiting for  the ships to come back to get the food across Blackwater Bay, so I got the impression they were just over the river from King's Landing. Certainly somewhere by the coast.
https://quartermaester.info/

No definite proof one way or the other of course but thats the impression I get.