Recent posts

#61

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by The Minsky Moment - November 24, 2025, 01:26:11 PM

I have thought that a centrally planned economy might work with sophisticated enough data and computer resources.

That's a very old debate.  Oskar Lange was arguing its possibility in the 1930s.

The problem is that even if you had the computing power needed and a workable model, how do you know and how can you get all the necessary information to input into the model?

#62

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Tonitrus - November 24, 2025, 01:21:27 PM

My prediction is that all of this is moot, as the moron in the kremlin thinks he's winning.

Yeah I think that's pretty plausible too.

For sure.  I think the Kremlin is mostly hoping that Ukraine bungles their surrender enough to get US aid/intel pulled, ahead of an actual signed deal, so they can push their offensive with more success.

#63

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by Valmy - November 24, 2025, 01:17:17 PM

It mainly matters if you plan on annexing them.

#64

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Valmy - November 24, 2025, 01:16:17 PM

I have thought that a centrally planned economy might work with sophisticated enough data and computer resources.

We'll see if China successfully models it for us 

#65

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by Tamas - November 24, 2025, 01:15:54 PM

Like, IDK if the changes re. Centralisation negatively impacting vassal loyalty are good or not. But I can sympathise with Johan and co. People are up in arms because a beta patch have made their pre-beta patch meta-optimised empires worse in keeping subjects loyal. Like one guy is spamming because his one vassal now only has 39% loyalty, a value, I might add, I had ZERO problem living with when I had my Hungary vassal swarm. It's not like it matters.

#66

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Valmy - November 24, 2025, 01:13:42 PM

Still too high.

1/3rd of this country are dangerous nutjobs is one of the main things I have learned from the past decade.

#67

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by Syt - November 24, 2025, 01:05:24 PM

Going through the 1.08 beta patch notes and saw this:

Exiting using Alt+F4 in Ironman will now save the game.

#68

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Josquius - November 24, 2025, 12:56:31 PM

Historically the American way of providing the conditions and letting business get on with it worked because America had such a glut of people and resources.
It didn't have to be efficient. It could just throw everything at the wall and see what stuck.

I was just thinking earlier today about command economies. The old cliche about no plugs in the USSR because the consumer need wasn't identified and communism bad.
It makes sense in a 20th century mindset that a true command economy is hard. It requires an insane amount of information and information handling capacity to even begin to properly handle such a thing.

Stafford Beer was on the right lines but that was very limited and in a very small economy.
China is far more complex and immense.

I worry though. With modern tech. The capacity to handle and make sense of huge amounts of info is there. A centrally planned economy on the Chinese scale is practical.... And of course applying rational thought behind everything will always lead to more effective results if done properly.
China doesn't seem to be doing it entirely properly.... But the capacity is there for sure.

#69

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Jacob - November 24, 2025, 12:49:17 PM

A Fox News Poll of registered voters conducted earlier this month found that only 35% approve of how Trump is handling tariffs, while a whopping 63% disapprove.

While 38% approve of his handling of the economy, 61% disapprove, according to the poll.

On a question about whether the Trump administration's economic policies have helped, hurt or not made much difference to them either way personally, the poll found that 46% indicated the administration's economic policies have hurt by them, while just 15% indicated that the policies have helped, and 39% indicated the policies have not made a difference.

https://newzsquare.com/trump-claims-tariff-windfall-coming-fox-news-poll-delivers-a-brutal-reality-check-for-voters/

#70

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by The Minsky Moment - November 24, 2025, 12:49:17 PM

The question is of course how much it matters if China manages to keep it up long enough to knock its competition out of the game

The question is which game?

For Trump the "game" is steel because that is something he understands and because it goes into big buildings. He's been tariffing steel since 2018 and Biden even kept the tariffs up during his administration.  To no effect, steel output hasn't improved.

For Commerce Secretary Lutnik, the "game" is cheap T-shirts and "screwing little, little screws into iphones," which is pretty stupid. For the US or Europe to become competitive producing that kind of commodity, they would have to be much poorer.

What differentiates China from the US and the EU is that China has a sense of the game it is trying to play. It has designated key sectors and oriented national strategy around that.  Whether that kind of state directed industrial strategy will work is another question.  The historical record is mixed.  I don't doubt China's ability to put up impressive production figures or gin up decent prototypes. But these kinds of supply push policies will only exacerbate demand imbalances.  The Japan precedent isn't reassuring.

The US won "the game" in the second half of the 20th century despite not having a formal national industrial plan.  What the state did do is encourage and support the building blocks of innovation at the most fundamental levels. It encouraged the development of the best university system in the world, made it easy for companies and universities to suck in the best talent, and funded basic research across the sciences.  That was the underpinning of American success. It meant that whatever emerged as a key new industry of the future, the US was in a position to capitalize on it, figuratively and literally.  But every single one of those pillars has been systemically vandalized over the past 10 months.  That's why America is going to lose the game.  Not because China can run faster. Because in the early 21st century, we made a choice to seek dominance in the key industries of the late 19th century.