Recent posts

#61

Off the Record / Re: Quo Vadis GOP?

Last post by Valmy - September 14, 2025, 06:08:11 PM

I've been saying for many years that cancel culture can work both ways, and has historically sometimes been applied against the left.  That's why it helps to view things with some principles, rather than a quick glance of who gets shafted today.

Indeed, which is why I was always against cancel culture. It is slightly different when they are afraid of being cancelled by the state vs. just social pressure though.

#62

Off the Record / Re: The Population Decline Thr...

Last post by Valmy - September 14, 2025, 05:10:01 PM

We have these "Great replacement" people

Yeah. But there is not going to be a replacement. Birth rates are tanking everywhere.

I do think there is a level it is bad to go below. 1.5 for example. You want at least some youth and vigor in your country.

#63

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Sheilbh - September 14, 2025, 04:13:19 PM

Thank you!

Edit: And yes.

#64

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by HVC - September 14, 2025, 04:09:42 PM

anemoia, apparently. Made up word, but aren't they all?

#65

Off the Record / Re: The Population Decline Thr...

Last post by Josquius - September 14, 2025, 03:37:19 PM

The "population decline" has been a theme for well over 100 years. Add some eugenics to it, too.

The fear of not having enough manpower for war was quite clear in France before WWI.

We have these "Great replacement" people, of course, but declining birth rates are not a bad thing, when we spend most resources on Earth before April each year.

It's like a steam roller coming down the street towards us.

It's not a problem.

We have more than enough time to notice it and step out of the way.

If we step out of the way.

We aren't stepping out of the way.

We seem determined to keep standing in the middle of this street and not move an inch come what may.

Our system needs to change for so many reasons, including this.
But the only group that seems to be breaking through with demanding change are those who say we should lie down in the middle of the street instead.

#66

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Sheilbh - September 14, 2025, 03:33:35 PM

Is there a word for nostalgia for a time you weren't alive in/don't remember or experience? I feel like there must be (possibly German). Just saw Stranger Things is coming back and it made me wonder.

#67

Off the Record / Re: The Population Decline Thr...

Last post by Sheilbh - September 14, 2025, 03:30:38 PM

I still don't understand why I am supposed to be worried about this when for most of my life I was supposed to be worried about overpopulation. Either the decline forecast is inaccurate because the overpopulation one is still valid, or if the latter is indeed now invalid, then confidence in the population decline one can't be high at all considering how the overpopulation one ended up being bogus.

On a purely parochial level in the UK I think there is an issue but it's primarily that old people vote (which intersects with other factors like home-ownership). So turnout is about 35% higher among the over 65s than 18-24 year olds, and also between outright homeowners than private and social renters (and those groups overlap more or less 100%).

I think this has an impact on policy. So between the crash and now (2007-2025) expenditure on welfare and benefits for children and working age adults (excluding the NHS and housing benefit) declined from 2.8% to 1.9% of GDP. Spending on the state pension increased from 3.7% to 5% of GDP. In ash terms the average working age household are £1,500 worse off and the average pension is £800 better off. It's a good policy achievement in my lifetime that pensioner poverty has halved, but child poverty remains high. On an intergenerational level, over the last 25 years there have been net benefits for the old and net cuts for the young. I think that's a problem

But I also think there's a risk around a large and powerful voting bloc being post-economic. The elderly are largely unaffected by the economic cycle as they have state and private pensions, plus asset ownership (again through pensions but also their homes). There's been some European wide research on this (because I think this is an issue across Europe). Broadly speaking older voters prioritise short-terms spending on pensions and healthcare over childcare and education. They are far less concerned with economic growth or employment rates (and don't reward governments for delivering them or punish or failure), they are far more sensitive to inflation and punish governments for that (there's an interesting set of research basically showing that the older a country is the more fiscally conservative/anti-inflationary that country's left-wing party is). In the UK the elderly also do not like policies that might improve growth, such as planning reform, that could impact the value of their assets. So I think you basically have a risk of an electoral system that rewards low inflation over jobs and growth, health and pensions over social and infrastructure spending - which is not great.

It's one of the reasons that if I had dictatorial powers for a day the electoral reform I'd introduce would be mandatory voting to try and equalise the power of the old a bit.

#68

Off the Record / Re: The Population Decline Thr...

Last post by Norgy - September 14, 2025, 03:23:38 PM

The "population decline" has been a theme for well over 100 years. Add some eugenics to it, too.

The fear of not having enough manpower for war was quite clear in France before WWI.

We have these "Great replacement" people, of course, but declining birth rates are not a bad thing, when we spend most resources on Earth before April each year.

#69

Off the Record / Re: The Population Decline Thr...

Last post by Tamas - September 14, 2025, 03:15:13 PM

I still don't understand why I am supposed to be worried about this when for most of my life I was supposed to be worried about overpopulation. Either the decline forecast is inaccurate because the overpopulation one is still valid, or if the latter is indeed now invalid, then confidence in the population decline one can't be high at all considering how the overpopulation one ended up being bogus.

#70

Off the Record / Re: Grand unified books thread

Last post by Sheilbh - September 14, 2025, 02:18:24 PM

So weirdly enough on vicarious radicals etc.

I'm reading the Women's Prize list at the minute and honestly it's a bit less enjoyable for my tastes. I think it's a broader, more inclusive list which includes some fairly straight forward more popular/less (hate the phrase) "literary" fiction - and it has included my least favourite book of the year.

But I've enjoyed it because it introduced me to Fundamentally by Nussaibah Younis which I would not otherwise have read (although fantastic cover page - so, maybe...). It's not the book on this sort of subject I expected. So Dr Nussaibah Younis is from the UK she studied at Oxford, Durham and Harvard and for several years advised the Iraqi government on deradicaliising women affiliated with ISIS.

And that is a big part of this book which is a novel a British Asian woman who's an academic and basically disowned by her more religious mum who ends up leading a UN group to deradicalise ISIS women so they can be moved from camps and re-patriated to their home countries. At the camps she meets Sara, a young funny, sweary East Londoner who joined ISIS at fifteen. They've got a lot in common until it all starts to spiral.

It sounds like it could be heavy but it is written as a really popular, very funny airport read (honestly a bit "chick-lit") and I really enjoyed it for it. Way lighter and more fun than I expected but still at points pretty thought-provoking and it doesn't just take the easiest route on some of the characters and settings.