Recent posts

#51

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by Josephus - December 03, 2025, 10:07:02 AM

Jos, with Castile, at the start of the game, delete a bunch of the unneeded fortifications.

That frees up a lot of budget room.

Thanks

I also keep forgetting about the wonderful "Ask for money" diplomatic function.

#52

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by Syt - December 03, 2025, 09:59:39 AM

I'm so glad I bought a new PC with RAM a few months ago. 

#53

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by The Minsky Moment - December 03, 2025, 09:49:50 AM

On the topic:

• Open AI signed huge procurement deals with both Samsung and SK Hynix, the duopoly that effectively dominates DRAM supply.  It was reported that the deals account for 40% of global supply.
• DRAM prices have exploded as everyone else scrambles to grab supply.  There are immediate knock on effects for retail consumers as anything that uses RAM is going to go way up in price once stockpiles are exhausted.  I don't think we can expect a significant supply response, because "Samnix" has to be concerned what would happen if Open AI implodes (see below) and dumps their massive stockpile back onto the market.
• Within the industry, there are increasing questions being raised about LLM scalability and whether the existing strategy of dumping more and more computing power and data is hitting diminishing returns.  That is: the incremental cost of improving the models is rising fast due to supply constraints, but the returns to model effectiveness may be diminishing.
• Google launched their new Gemini iteration and appears to have overtaken or at least caught up to GPT-5.  Open AI insiders leaked a memo from Altman declaring a "code red".  Of course, there is nothing unexpected about this development; Google was the pioneer of these industrial scale LLMs (from their 2017 paper) and was only beat to market because they wouldn't release a half-baked product. 
• Google generates massive profits off of its core business; it can afford take a bath on LLMs. OpenAI has no business other than raising VC capital from supercharged hype and grabbing a few shekels here and there by vending the more advanced iteration of GPT-5. The true state of OpenAI finances is unknown because they are private but it is clear that operating losses are large and capital costs are staggering, on a country level scale.

Two immediate conclusions:

1) The AI investment boom has reached the phase where it is causing significant distortions in the real economy, with likely adverse impact on consumers and the broader tech industry well into 2026.

2) The probability of a nasty crash over the next 6-12 month window is rising.

#54

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Baron von Schtinkenbutt - December 03, 2025, 09:37:13 AM

The Russian economy's cracking continues apace as they start selling off their gold reserves en masse.
People dismiss this stuff as it has been talked about for years now. But seems pretty clear Russia absolutely is hurting and the name of the game is Ukraine trading land for time to make Russia implode.

I think the spirit of "[t]he market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" applies to war economies like Russia's as well.  It is fundamentally unhealthy, but trying to time its collapse is a fool's errand.  I think this point is missed in the "Russia'a economy will collapse any day now" versus "Russia can keep this up forever" debate.

[Putin warns Europe: if you want war, then Russia will defeat you]

#55

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Baron von Schtinkenbutt - December 03, 2025, 09:29:44 AM

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-that-if-europe-wants-war-then-russia-is-ready-2025-12-02/

Putin warns Europe: if you want war, then Russia will defeat you

#56

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by crazy canuck - December 03, 2025, 08:29:11 AM

Jos, with Castile, at the start of the game, delete a bunch of the unneeded fortifications.

That frees up a lot of budget room.

#57

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by garbon - December 03, 2025, 06:46:19 AM

Why is that sad? I had a superstition as a child that every time I read the manual before loading up a game, that would be when it would be a game that would fail to work.

#58

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Syt - December 03, 2025, 06:01:47 AM

Saw a little boy yesterday morning wearing a Toronto Maple Leafs bobble hat/touque. :canuck:

#59

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by Josephus - December 03, 2025, 05:39:25 AM

Playing Castille with new patch. took out three loans in the first 20 years or so. Struggling to stay afloat. I think it's more of a Nobles not paying enough taxes than anything else; but my economy did crash after a couple wars and the plague.
That said though, I found it's really easy to cut both Portugal and Aragon down to size really quickly.

#60

Off the Record / Re: Football (Soccer) Thread

Last post by Josephus - December 03, 2025, 05:36:39 AM

here's the thing about MLS, and I don't think I'm alone in this: I follow my team, Toronto FC, religiously. Like all Toronto teams they suck, but I doubt I've missed more than 10 games since they formed in 2007. I'm hardcore.

But otherwise, unlike say, the EPL or Serie A; I don't give a shit about the rest of the league. I haven't been following the playoffs and if, and only if, I am doing nothing on Saturday, I might be arsed to watch the Final.

If I do, then go Whitecaps.