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#51
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Sheilbh - November 21, 2025, 03:41:33 PMIn the run-up to the budget I saw these charts and thought they're really interesting in part because they're slightly counter-intuitive. But also because I think they illustrate the challenge for Reeves.
So first of all - and this echoes a point I made earlier - for low and middle income earners, we tax at American rates. For high earners we tax like a North European country:
I think huge driver of this is that the Tories more or less doubled the personal allowance from about £6,500 in 2009 to abbout £12,500 in 2024. This was a Lib Dem policy the Tories nicked to "lift the poorest out of taxation" which I think I supported at the time but think is wrong now - I'm far more of the view we need a broader not narrower tax base (I also slightly worry if tax is something someone else pays and benefits is something someone else gets - I think it undermines a social policy). Additionally it is clawed back for people earning over £100k (basically for every £1 more you earn over that, you lose 50p of your personal allowance until it's all gone). So you see the distributional impact of tax changes over the 14 years of Tory rule which a lot of people simply don't believe
(If you add in benefits it's slightly different - basically the bottom 3-4 deciles lose as does the top and middle ones increase. Which makes sense, a Tory government focusing on rewarding middle class voters in the round-ish.)
One other point that I think is striking is the increase of the minimum wage. At the point the Tories left office - as a share of the median wage, the only OECD country with a higher minimum wage is France
Part of the challenge here is that there's a lot of wage compression going on. But also there's been a huge increase in the youth minimum wage (when implemented this was deliberately designed to be lower to encourage employers to hire young people without experience). From what I've read, that, combined with the rise on employer's NI (basically payroll tax) by Labour last year are contributing to the quite worrying decline in youth employment and entry level vacancies.
I think part of the challenge is basically that the perception of many particularly on the left has been that it's "same old Tories" but also reading the Tories as Republican - so lots of deregulation, tax cuts for the rich, nothing for anyone else etc. Which would be the sort of thing Labour would like to unwind and that would be politically easier to do. When the reality is highest tax and spending rate as a share of GDP this side of the war, lots of (bad) regulations and really significant increases in both tax free earnings (for people earning less than £100k), pensions and minimum wages. Which is in its way a more challenging legacy for Labour.
FWIW I don't think that was ever the plan for the Tories I think in a way it's just a symptom of our budgetary cycle and wanting to have something to announce every year (which is a mad system we should scrap). I'd add it's why I'm not particularly encouraged to hear that Reeves has decided that instead of raising income tax she'll raise a smorgasbord of smaller taxes instead - it'll add to further complications to what's already one of the world's most complicated tax codes and I think likely to produce slightly unintended consequences a few years down the road.
Edit: And. by that point of it being the budgetary cycle, I basically think Cameron/Osborne had a long term strategic view of what they wanted to do on tax and the economy. Being generous I think you might say Sunak/Hunt did too. But I think basically for the whole 2016-22 it was all about survival and short-term choices.
So first of all - and this echoes a point I made earlier - for low and middle income earners, we tax at American rates. For high earners we tax like a North European country:
I think huge driver of this is that the Tories more or less doubled the personal allowance from about £6,500 in 2009 to abbout £12,500 in 2024. This was a Lib Dem policy the Tories nicked to "lift the poorest out of taxation" which I think I supported at the time but think is wrong now - I'm far more of the view we need a broader not narrower tax base (I also slightly worry if tax is something someone else pays and benefits is something someone else gets - I think it undermines a social policy). Additionally it is clawed back for people earning over £100k (basically for every £1 more you earn over that, you lose 50p of your personal allowance until it's all gone). So you see the distributional impact of tax changes over the 14 years of Tory rule which a lot of people simply don't believe
(If you add in benefits it's slightly different - basically the bottom 3-4 deciles lose as does the top and middle ones increase. Which makes sense, a Tory government focusing on rewarding middle class voters in the round-ish.)
One other point that I think is striking is the increase of the minimum wage. At the point the Tories left office - as a share of the median wage, the only OECD country with a higher minimum wage is France
Part of the challenge here is that there's a lot of wage compression going on. But also there's been a huge increase in the youth minimum wage (when implemented this was deliberately designed to be lower to encourage employers to hire young people without experience). From what I've read, that, combined with the rise on employer's NI (basically payroll tax) by Labour last year are contributing to the quite worrying decline in youth employment and entry level vacancies.
I think part of the challenge is basically that the perception of many particularly on the left has been that it's "same old Tories" but also reading the Tories as Republican - so lots of deregulation, tax cuts for the rich, nothing for anyone else etc. Which would be the sort of thing Labour would like to unwind and that would be politically easier to do. When the reality is highest tax and spending rate as a share of GDP this side of the war, lots of (bad) regulations and really significant increases in both tax free earnings (for people earning less than £100k), pensions and minimum wages. Which is in its way a more challenging legacy for Labour.
FWIW I don't think that was ever the plan for the Tories
I think in a way it's just a symptom of our budgetary cycle and wanting to have something to announce every year (which is a mad system we should scrap). I'd add it's why I'm not particularly encouraged to hear that Reeves has decided that instead of raising income tax she'll raise a smorgasbord of smaller taxes instead - it'll add to further complications to what's already one of the world's most complicated tax codes and I think likely to produce slightly unintended consequences a few years down the road.Edit: And. by that point of it being the budgetary cycle, I basically think Cameron/Osborne had a long term strategic view of what they wanted to do on tax and the economy. Being generous I think you might say Sunak/Hunt did too. But I think basically for the whole 2016-22 it was all about survival and short-term choices.
#52
Off the Record / Re: Quo Vadis GOP?
Last post by Razgovory - November 21, 2025, 03:19:12 PMQuote from: Admiral Yi on November 21, 2025, 02:57:34 PMMargery Taylor Greene and Tucker Carlson are a Christian nationalists. Candace Owens is a popular podcaster that worked for the Daily Wire I think, but got fired over the Gaza war. Very popular.Quote from: Razgovory on November 21, 2025, 02:46:00 PMA bunch already have. Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson, Margery Taylor Greene. Half of them think Israel killed Charlie Kirk. The tide is turning.
https://www.npr.org/2025/11/07/nx-s1-5558286/israel-republicans-antisemitism-carlson
46% of Republicans sympathize more with Israelis than Palestinians. So less than half. And Republicans, for the most part, don't like Arab Muslims at all...
I don't know who Candace Owens is. Tucker Carlson and MTG I would not slot in the Christian right.
It's not 2004 anymore, the right is turning on Israel.
#53
Off the Record / Re: Quo Vadis GOP?
Last post by Admiral Yi - November 21, 2025, 02:57:34 PMQuote from: Razgovory on November 21, 2025, 02:46:00 PMA bunch already have. Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson, Margery Taylor Greene. Half of them think Israel killed Charlie Kirk. The tide is turning.
https://www.npr.org/2025/11/07/nx-s1-5558286/israel-republicans-antisemitism-carlson
46% of Republicans sympathize more with Israelis than Palestinians. So less than half. And Republicans, for the most part, don't like Arab Muslims at all...
I don't know who Candace Owens is. Tucker Carlson and MTG I would not slot in the Christian right.
#54
Off the Record / Re: Quo Vadis GOP?
Last post by Razgovory - November 21, 2025, 02:46:00 PMQuote from: Admiral Yi on November 21, 2025, 02:32:15 PMThe Christian right will never give up Israel. Trumpies have already given up the free market. Fuentes is a clown.
A bunch already have. Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson, Margery Taylor Greene. Half of them think Israel killed Charlie Kirk. The tide is turning.
https://www.npr.org/2025/11/07/nx-s1-5558286/israel-republicans-antisemitism-carlson
46% of Republicans sympathize more with Israelis than Palestinians. So less than half. And Republicans, for the most part, don't like Arab Muslims at all...
#55
Off the Record / Re: Quo Vadis GOP?
Last post by Razgovory - November 21, 2025, 02:36:36 PMYou don't think the all those protests across the world hold any water? What are they doing if not trying to stop a genocide? I don't understand.
#56
Off the Record / Re: Quo Vadis GOP?
Last post by Admiral Yi - November 21, 2025, 02:32:15 PMThe Christian right will never give up Israel. Trumpies have already given up the free market. Fuentes is a clown.
#57
Off the Record / Re: Quo Vadis GOP?
Last post by Valmy - November 21, 2025, 02:23:21 PMQuote from: Razgovory on November 21, 2025, 02:14:34 PMIf you believe there is a genocide then the most important thing is to stop it. It wouldn't matter who you have to align with to do it. And really, is Fuentes any worse than the Palestinian resistance? They say and want pretty much the same thing.
Well good for fucking them.
And just stopping support for Israel wouldn't stop shit, so the whole idea of "OH NOS WE MUST STOP GENOCIDE" doesn't hold water. The Palestinians and their allies are toothless non-entities, Israel doesn't need us to do whatever shit they want to do. But whatever good would be gained from not sending billions to a criminal regime run by a psycho like Netanyahu would be bitter if it resulted in any compromise with Fuentes and his gang.
#58
Off the Record / Re: Quo Vadis GOP?
Last post by Razgovory - November 21, 2025, 02:14:34 PMIf you believe there is a genocide then the most important thing is to stop it. It wouldn't matter who you have to align with to do it. And really, is Fuentes any worse than the Palestinian resistance? They say and want pretty much the same thing.
#59
Off the Record / Re: Quo Vadis GOP?
Last post by Valmy - November 21, 2025, 01:56:09 PMYeah let's not ally with Nick fucking Fuentes.
#60
Off the Record / Re: Quo Vadis GOP?
Last post by Razgovory - November 21, 2025, 01:52:36 PM
Welcome to the future...