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#51

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Josquius - November 24, 2025, 12:56:31 PM

Historically the American way of providing the conditions and letting business get on with it worked because America had such a glut of people and resources.
It didn't have to be efficient. It could just throw everything at the wall and see what stuck.

I was just thinking earlier today about command economies. The old cliche about no plugs in the USSR because the consumer need wasn't identified and communism bad.
It makes sense in a 20th century mindset that a true command economy is hard. It requires an insane amount of information and information handling capacity to even begin to properly handle such a thing.

Stafford Beer was on the right lines but that was very limited and in a very small economy.
China is far more complex and immense.

I worry though. With modern tech. The capacity to handle and make sense of huge amounts of info is there. A centrally planned economy on the Chinese scale is practical.... And of course applying rational thought behind everything will always lead to more effective results if done properly.
China doesn't seem to be doing it entirely properly.... But the capacity is there for sure.

#52

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Jacob - November 24, 2025, 12:49:17 PM

A Fox News Poll of registered voters conducted earlier this month found that only 35% approve of how Trump is handling tariffs, while a whopping 63% disapprove.

While 38% approve of his handling of the economy, 61% disapprove, according to the poll.

On a question about whether the Trump administration's economic policies have helped, hurt or not made much difference to them either way personally, the poll found that 46% indicated the administration's economic policies have hurt by them, while just 15% indicated that the policies have helped, and 39% indicated the policies have not made a difference.

https://newzsquare.com/trump-claims-tariff-windfall-coming-fox-news-poll-delivers-a-brutal-reality-check-for-voters/

#53

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by The Minsky Moment - November 24, 2025, 12:49:17 PM

The question is of course how much it matters if China manages to keep it up long enough to knock its competition out of the game

The question is which game?

For Trump the "game" is steel because that is something he understands and because it goes into big buildings. He's been tariffing steel since 2018 and Biden even kept the tariffs up during his administration.  To no effect, steel output hasn't improved.

For Commerce Secretary Lutnik, the "game" is cheap T-shirts and "screwing little, little screws into iphones," which is pretty stupid. For the US or Europe to become competitive producing that kind of commodity, they would have to be much poorer.

What differentiates China from the US and the EU is that China has a sense of the game it is trying to play. It has designated key sectors and oriented national strategy around that.  Whether that kind of state directed industrial strategy will work is another question.  The historical record is mixed.  I don't doubt China's ability to put up impressive production figures or gin up decent prototypes. But these kinds of supply push policies will only exacerbate demand imbalances.  The Japan precedent isn't reassuring.

The US won "the game" in the second half of the 20th century despite not having a formal national industrial plan.  What the state did do is encourage and support the building blocks of innovation at the most fundamental levels. It encouraged the development of the best university system in the world, made it easy for companies and universities to suck in the best talent, and funded basic research across the sciences.  That was the underpinning of American success. It meant that whatever emerged as a key new industry of the future, the US was in a position to capitalize on it, figuratively and literally.  But every single one of those pillars has been systemically vandalized over the past 10 months.  That's why America is going to lose the game.  Not because China can run faster. Because in the early 21st century, we made a choice to seek dominance in the key industries of the late 19th century.

#54

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Jacob - November 24, 2025, 12:39:06 PM

I concur. I mean, there are a non-trivial number of Chinese Nationalists who'll take some measure of satisfaction in treating the West the way the West historically treated China.

I expect there'll be people in the Chinese leadership who'll enjoy that sentiment, but nonetheless I reckon their priorities are going to be:

• Keep the CCP and themselves, individually, in power
• Keep Chinese society operating smoothly, primarily to support 1. above
• Keep the Chinese economy running smoothly, primarily to support 1. and 2. above

Sure, destroying European industrial production may be desirable from a global powers competition point of view but it's mostly just a byproduct of pursuing points 3. and 2.

#55

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by Jacob - November 24, 2025, 12:33:48 PM

LOL yeah, I understood Viper to be saying that Joly was offering Quebec to Trump which would be alarming, unusual, and essentially traitorous.

That a Liberal politician said something cack-handed that empowers separatists and gets Viper up in arms is still interesting, but orders of magnitude less concerning

#56

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by crazy canuck - November 24, 2025, 12:28:21 PM

The question is of course how much it matters if China manages to keep it up long enough to knock its competition out of the game

I doubt China is thinking much about knocking their competition out. I think their attention is focused on keeping power and doing whatever it takes through economic policies, amongst other things, to achieve that goal.

#57

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by crazy canuck - November 24, 2025, 11:09:19 AM

Quite different.

The federal Liberal apparatus is fearmongering because the PQ is leading the polls. I don't think it's a good strategy, the election is still far away (next October) and the provincial Liberals aren't ready for any campaigning. They even had their own self-made controversy this week where it was made clear that Pablo Rodriguez is a weak leader at best.

Yes, it's Quebec politics.  Not a minister wanting to give Quebec to the Americans. Just the same old song and dance.

#58

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Jacob - November 24, 2025, 11:04:25 AM

The question is of course how much it matters if China manages to keep it up long enough to knock its competition out of the game

It will also matter if China knocks the competition out of the game as you say, we all become (even more) dependent on the Chinese economy and manufacturing, and then the Chinese economy goes kablooey.

#59

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by Grey Fox - November 24, 2025, 10:53:02 AM

  Quite different.

The federal Liberal apparatus is fearmongering because the PQ is leading the polls. I don't think it's a good strategy, the election is still far away (next October) and the provincial Liberals aren't ready for any campaigning. They even had their own self-made controversy this week where it was made clear that Pablo Rodriguez is a weak leader at best.

#60

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Razgovory - November 24, 2025, 10:50:12 AM

Rat guy?