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#31
Off the Record / Re: Your Orientation?
Last post by Zoupa - October 24, 2025, 06:16:26 PMI sleep standing up, facing east. *Clémenceau*
#32
Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread
Last post by Admiral Yi - October 24, 2025, 05:46:46 PM
#33
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Admiral Yi - October 24, 2025, 05:43:33 PMQuote from: The Minsky Moment on October 24, 2025, 08:51:40 AMSo every unsolved, unprosecuted murder was lawful?
There are cases in which we know people have been murdered (say a drive by) but we can't positively ID the shooters. That does not describe Trump's immigration actions. We know who ordered it, we know who is executing it, what we don't have is a court saying this is lawless and must stop.
#34
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Sheilbh - October 24, 2025, 05:26:57 PMBy the by - there was a Senedd by-election in Caerphilly. It's a seat in the Senedd that's always been held by Labour. It doesn't directly map onto the UK constituency but Caerphilly has always been Labour since the seat was first created over 100 years ago.
The result today:
And the swing:
Obviously always dangerous to read too much from one by-election but this is core Labour, Welsh valley heartlands so not great. The polling in the national Senedd elections in May are bad too.
I feel like there's two ways of looking at it. They're both true but I'm not sure which matters most. One is that the two main parties are on 13% between them and that's the core fact of our politics right now. Support for and trust in both the main parties is collapsing (and I think voters are in a bit of a punishing mood).
On the other this also shows that while there is a swing to Reform, there is also a willingness for other voters of the centre and centre left to coalesce around a "stop Reform/Farage" candidate whoever that will be in their local seat. Reform appear to have plateaued in the polling and even be falling back a little bit. It's a long way out etc etc but I think we under-price the possibility of a Lib-Lab coalition at the next election, or even a government further to the left. But I think that tactical voting is a little dubious - thinking back to 2015 and 2019. I slightly wonder if that tactical voting is itself conditional on those possibilities being underpriced - i.e. if the threat is Farage then voters from centre-left to (some) centre-right might coalesce to block Farage, but if the threat is a government with, say, Zack Polanski or Plaid and the SNP having a decisive vote, I wonder if those centre-right to (some) centre-left voters decide against tactical voting
Edit: Oh also the Welsh Labour campaign is one of the weirdest I've ever seen on social media. I have no idea who is doing their socials but it was....odd. A little less a campaign than a cry for help. Like this TikTok:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DP9mazciH5t/
Or this Insta post:
The result today:
And the swing:
Obviously always dangerous to read too much from one by-election but this is core Labour, Welsh valley heartlands so not great. The polling in the national Senedd elections in May are bad too.
I feel like there's two ways of looking at it. They're both true but I'm not sure which matters most. One is that the two main parties are on 13% between them and that's the core fact of our politics right now. Support for and trust in both the main parties is collapsing (and I think voters are in a bit of a punishing mood).
On the other this also shows that while there is a swing to Reform, there is also a willingness for other voters of the centre and centre left to coalesce around a "stop Reform/Farage" candidate whoever that will be in their local seat. Reform appear to have plateaued in the polling and even be falling back a little bit. It's a long way out etc etc but I think we under-price the possibility of a Lib-Lab coalition at the next election, or even a government further to the left. But I think that tactical voting is a little dubious - thinking back to 2015 and 2019. I slightly wonder if that tactical voting is itself conditional on those possibilities being underpriced - i.e. if the threat is Farage then voters from centre-left to (some) centre-right might coalesce to block Farage, but if the threat is a government with, say, Zack Polanski or Plaid and the SNP having a decisive vote, I wonder if those centre-right to (some) centre-left voters decide against tactical voting
Edit: Oh also the Welsh Labour campaign is one of the weirdest I've ever seen on social media. I have no idea who is doing their socials but it was....odd. A little less a campaign than a cry for help. Like this TikTok:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DP9mazciH5t/
Or this Insta post:
#35
Off the Record / Re: Stocks and Trading Thread ...
Last post by grumbler - October 24, 2025, 05:21:19 PMQuote from: Tonitrus on October 24, 2025, 11:13:21 AMI'm getting close to dumping my AI-bubble-adjacent stocks. Not looking forward to the long-term CG taxes though on my AAPL, MSFT and AMAT holdings though. They've been over the years.
Just look forward to buying them back cheap once the bubble pops.
#36
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by grumbler - October 24, 2025, 05:15:41 PMQuote from: Tamas on October 24, 2025, 04:57:06 PMWhat should they have to do with each other?
You are the one that quoted Yi and responded, so it's likelier that you know what (if anything) you meant by doing so.
#37
Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...
Last post by Josephus - October 24, 2025, 05:05:16 PMQuote from: Zoupa on October 24, 2025, 03:05:13 PMFord is pulling the ad. How come all our politicians are grade A pussies. Jesus Fucking Christ. WHEN WILL WE LEARN.
He's not pulling it till after GAme 2 of that baseball thingie that's going on-so there is that
#38
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Admiral Yi - October 24, 2025, 05:04:47 PMAgreement or disagreement I suppose.
#39
Off the Record / Re: Your Orientation?
Last post by Admiral Yi - October 24, 2025, 05:02:20 PMHead to the east.
#40
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Tamas - October 24, 2025, 04:57:06 PMWhat should they have to do with each other?