Recent posts

#31

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Tamas - November 24, 2025, 03:16:53 PM

This might be entirely wrong, but there seems to be a similarity with Canadian polling. About a third of our population is always going to be Conservative supporters, independent of the policies of the party. So I am not sure it is correct to assume everyone carefully considers the positions of each of the options and then bases their vote on that analysis. Quite the opposite, if the polling numbers are accurate.

I've long ago come to the conclusion that a third of humanity are conservative/authoritarian, another third don't really care (as evident by their non-voting) and only a third are really liberal/left-leaning.

Yes, that sounds correct.

#32

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by grumbler - November 24, 2025, 03:06:04 PM

A Federal judge has dismissed the charges against Comey and James on the grounds that Hallian was illegally appointed.

I hope the administration appeals so Halligan can continue to be spanked by the trial judge.

#33

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Sheilbh - November 24, 2025, 02:59:01 PM

For digital services there are European alternatives in most cases already, but convenience and  network effects lock people into these American services. EU sovereign cloud is a big topic in IT operations these days as resilience means you cannot rely on American hyperscalers. I do not see a cost efficient alternative yet though and the European capital markets are too weak to fund a massive homegrown competition.

This is where I run against the AI boom risks because I think there's actually a relatively good case for building publicly owned cloud infrstructure and data centres both for that and sovereign LLMs (I think Switzerland has done this - I suspect not least because of the needs of Swiss banks to, as best they can, steer clear of American intelligence agencies ). If the capital markets aren't there and it's necessary 21st century infrastructure, then the state should build it (and own it).

On payments I'd not really thought it was that American dominated - China, Russia and other BRICS states have built alternatives. But also I actually thought this was a challenge for Trump trying to do a deal with Russia on sanctions is that, say, Swift is Belgian. But also I thought fintech was an area where Europe was pretty competitive the US (with other payment providers like Adyen being very successful) because the US was a bit more old school on payments - still lots of signing and cheques and consumer fees etc.

Certainly my experience in Europe is that we're closer to Asia on payments with lots of methods and relatively smooth tools etc - although to be honest Germany is an exception in my experience (and I know there's a lot of specific payments complications in Germany because I once worked for a payments firm and it was a global project with a team of global lawyers basically being able to do the same thing - plus Germany which was different ).

Edit: Although I would point out that the data sovereignty is not necessarilly better from a privacy perspective. The restrictions and standards that European states apply around personal data to third countries (around rule of law, "essentially equivalent" protections etc) do not apply to European law enforcement or national security agencies - this is a big sticking point in the EU's recently abandoned attempt at updating the E-Privacy Directive. That directive is best known for cookie banners but is actually important in lots of other ways, it's from 2002 and I think the institutions were in trilogue over an E-Privacy Regulation since 2014 and have now just admitted there's no way to a draft.

I don't know that it's true - and it's too good to check - but I knew a Dutch lawyer who mentioned this and then noted that the law enforcement agencies in the Netherlands alone have more active authorised wiretaps than the FBI. So there is a perverse argument that from a privacy perspective a European citizen's data is never more secure than when it's in a third country

#34

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by PJL - November 24, 2025, 02:36:53 PM

This might be entirely wrong, but there seems to be a similarity with Canadian polling. About a third of our population is always going to be Conservative supporters, independent of the policies of the party. So I am not sure it is correct to assume everyone carefully considers the positions of each of the options and then bases their vote on that analysis. Quite the opposite, if the polling numbers are accurate.

I've long ago come to the conclusion that a third of humanity are conservative/authoritarian, another third don't really care (as evident by their non-voting) and only a third are really liberal/left-leaning.

#35

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by crazy canuck - November 24, 2025, 02:28:55 PM

Ironman modes in games with popups drives me nuts. So easy to accidentally click something disastrous 

Yeah, I can live without getting "achievements".

#36

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by Valmy - November 24, 2025, 02:27:45 PM

Ironman modes in games with popups drives me nuts. So easy to accidentally click something disastrous 

#37

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by DGuller - November 24, 2025, 02:22:24 PM

I tend to think it goes in this order (from best to worst):

• A liberal economic order with competent leadership and appropriate regulations and safeguards
• Centrally planned economy with competent leaderships and appropriate safeguards
• A liberal economic order with incompetent or corrupt leadership with misaligned regulations and safeguards
• Centrally planned economy with incompetent or corrupt leadership with misaligned regulations and safeguards

My read is that China's is tending towards 2, with dashes of 4; while the US is going all in at 3.

I'm not sure that good planned economy can beat out shitty liberal economy, even with excellent leadership.  Part of the reason is that the scale of what needs managing is just too much, and would require many more levels of delegation than humans have learned to manage.  Another reason is that keeping the system competent and free of corruption for long is very hard.

I think it gets more uncertain when you add a hybrid category, something that has both a Five Year Plan and NEP.  That may have more of a chance at beating the shittiest of liberal economies.

#38

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Tonitrus - November 24, 2025, 02:02:05 PM

I have thought that a centrally planned economy might work with sophisticated enough data and computer resources.

That's a very old debate.  Oskar Lange was arguing its possibility in the 1930s.

The problem is that even if you had the computing power needed and a workable model, how do you know and how can you get all the necessary information to input into the model?

I think in the age of AI China would eventually have better information about your wants than you do. 

It's not just your final duty...you want to go into the tanks and become one with all the people.

#39

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Jacob - November 24, 2025, 02:00:20 PM

I tend to think it goes in this order (from best to worst):

• A liberal economic order with competent leadership and appropriate regulations and safeguards
• Centrally planned economy with competent leaderships and appropriate safeguards
• A liberal economic order with incompetent or corrupt leadership with misaligned regulations and safeguards
• Centrally planned economy with incompetent or corrupt leadership with misaligned regulations and safeguards

My read is that China's is tending towards 2, with dashes of 4; while the US is going all in at 3.

#40

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by DGuller - November 24, 2025, 01:58:56 PM

I have thought that a centrally planned economy might work with sophisticated enough data and computer resources.

That's a very old debate.  Oskar Lange was arguing its possibility in the 1930s.

The problem is that even if you had the computing power needed and a workable model, how do you know and how can you get all the necessary information to input into the model?

I think in the age of AI China would eventually have better information about your wants than you do.