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#31
Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread
Last post by celedhring - November 20, 2025, 01:51:38 PMEzra Klein had a former AI developer turned whistleblower a couple weeks ago that essentially said that we should juryrig AI datacenters with explosives for when they go full skynet, because they will. He seemed a bit unhinged, but not completely.
#32
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Admiral Yi - November 20, 2025, 01:12:40 PMQuote from: garbon on November 20, 2025, 12:33:33 PMThey have to watch out though as I am not too sure MAGA crowd will be happy with obvious attempts to obscure stuff. That will just feed the conspiracy theorists at a time Trump wants to move on.
I heard the same talk the first go around.
#33
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by garbon - November 20, 2025, 12:33:33 PMQuote from: Tonitrus on November 20, 2025, 12:21:24 PMQuote from: Tamas on November 20, 2025, 05:26:28 AMI find it a bit funny how people are saying the Epstein files are going to be released. Nothing with Trump's name in it will be released. Those will be held due to the newly started investigation into Bill Clinton and other Democrats.
This was mostly known...either "part of ongoing investigation" or "redacted to protect the victims" were always going to be obvious ploys. But short of a Trump-is-guilty-of-bad-things smoking gun, I think most of the political damage has been done, and it has been a very effective weapon against the GOP/MAGA crowd.
The only pain for the Democrats is that it will likely now fade into the background and Trump can now fill the headlines with his flying circus again.
They have to watch out though as I am not too sure MAGA crowd will be happy with obvious attempts to obscure stuff. That will just feed the conspiracy theorists at a time Trump wants to move on.
#34
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Tonitrus - November 20, 2025, 12:21:24 PMQuote from: Tamas on November 20, 2025, 05:26:28 AMI find it a bit funny how people are saying the Epstein files are going to be released. Nothing with Trump's name in it will be released. Those will be held due to the newly started investigation into Bill Clinton and other Democrats.
This was mostly known...either "part of ongoing investigation" or "redacted to protect the victims" were always going to be obvious ploys. But short of a Trump-is-guilty-of-bad-things smoking gun, I think most of the political damage has been done, and it has been a very effective weapon against the GOP/MAGA crowd.
The only pain for the Democrats is that it will likely now fade into the background and Trump can now fill the headlines with his flying circus again.
#35
Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...
Last post by Richard Hakluyt - November 20, 2025, 12:06:31 PMYeah, in the game I'm playing France won the 100 years war in 20 years and seemed to have iron control of their vassals. They became the hegemonic power in Europe by about 1360, which is disappointing.
In the real world a united France was a huge threat to just about every other European state (I'm thinking of Louis XIV here), but getting there so incredibly early (hundreds of years early) is very bad for the game.
In the real world a united France was a huge threat to just about every other European state (I'm thinking of Louis XIV here), but getting there so incredibly early (hundreds of years early) is very bad for the game.
#36
Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...
Last post by The Minsky Moment - November 20, 2025, 11:52:44 AMAlso seems to me making subjects harder to control nerfs France game start which will probably boost England's chances of performing as historically in the 100 YW. At the same time, it will make it harder for England to hold on to large areas of France, especially away from the coasts. And that seems right too.
#37
Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...
Last post by The Minsky Moment - November 20, 2025, 11:48:16 AMThe midpoint of the EU campaign in 1587. From that standpoint I don't think it was obvious that centralizing was a superior state building strategy. The two western European countries with a centralizing drive - England and France - seemed trapped in endless cycles where they would thrive under strong monarchs, only to collapse back into confusion and civil strife during the reigns of weak monarchs or long regencies. And of course that pattern would continue into the mid-1600s. On the flip side, city states like Venice or city leagues like the Hanse seemed a viable alternative model. The HRE and the Habsburg agglomeration had all sorts of problems but managed to project resilience and exert power pretty consistently. The Ottomans were at their height despite granting significant degrees of regional autonomy horizontally and within regions through the millet system.
The proposed changes to centralization do not appear to me to take centralization less preferable. As I understand, the centralization bonuses for crown power and proximity cost remain, and those remain two of the best bonuses in the game. Decentralization is going to be boosted by basically making it harder to maintain subject loyalty without it. That doesn't really change the balance in the sense that going centralized will help you project control so that you don't need to rely on subjects as much for expansion and can just control directly. What it does do is: (1) open the possibility of drifting decentralized early game until other sources of control and prox reduction make a centralized strategy more effective, (2) making decentralization more useful for AI countries that get stuck with it.
The proposed changes to centralization do not appear to me to take centralization less preferable. As I understand, the centralization bonuses for crown power and proximity cost remain, and those remain two of the best bonuses in the game. Decentralization is going to be boosted by basically making it harder to maintain subject loyalty without it. That doesn't really change the balance in the sense that going centralized will help you project control so that you don't need to rely on subjects as much for expansion and can just control directly. What it does do is: (1) open the possibility of drifting decentralized early game until other sources of control and prox reduction make a centralized strategy more effective, (2) making decentralization more useful for AI countries that get stuck with it.
#39
Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...
Last post by Tamas - November 20, 2025, 10:52:24 AM1.0.7 is out which aimed to undo 1.0.5's breaking of the regular-levy troops balance of 1.0.4 not by reverting the change but by further convoluting the process by which these troops behave and improve over time. I linked Johan's post about it that was immediately torn apart by people.
So apparently now you can get results like this:
https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/threads/1-0-7-bodies-in-unit-calculations-make-regular-troops-useless-before-age-iv.1877431/
Where a handful of regulars still massacre 15k levies but because of the new... jumble of calculations they still lose the battle because their morale runs out.
So apparently now you can get results like this:
https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/threads/1-0-7-bodies-in-unit-calculations-make-regular-troops-useless-before-age-iv.1877431/
Where a handful of regulars still massacre 15k levies but because of the new... jumble of calculations they still lose the battle because their morale runs out.
#40
Off the Record / Re: The China Thread
Last post by The Minsky Moment - November 20, 2025, 10:01:03 AMThe classic middle income trap are mid-to-largish countries that are more balanced and pursing import substitution strategies: Brazil, Argentina, South Africa.
Export promotion strategies have been pretty reliable in getting over that hump when pursued vigorously. The trick is such strategies involve scavenging off of consumer demand overseas. Smaller countries (Singapore, Taiwan, even Korea) can get away with that because net global impact is low. Japan was large enough to encounter push back but just managed to break through advanced status before the backlash hit. China OTOH is so big that it caused significant global impact while still in middle income territory.
Export promotion strategies have been pretty reliable in getting over that hump when pursued vigorously. The trick is such strategies involve scavenging off of consumer demand overseas. Smaller countries (Singapore, Taiwan, even Korea) can get away with that because net global impact is low. Japan was large enough to encounter push back but just managed to break through advanced status before the backlash hit. China OTOH is so big that it caused significant global impact while still in middle income territory.