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#31

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 01:18:48 AM

I don't have any insight into whether a quick invasion of a Latin American country is part of the current US administration's roadmap. It would be on brand, I suppose.

I mean, I do think Trump is a moral coward who is unwilling to make the kind decisions and take responsibility for the consequences that starting a war requires from a leader. He's a bully, not a fighter. But he might be talked into it, especially as senility sets in.

For sake of argument, let's say the current US administration decides it does want one of its traditional Latin American regime change wars - how will it play in the US? Will Trump be able to rally patriotic fervour?

#32

Off the Record / Re: Australia begins enforcing...

Last post by HVC - Today at 01:08:53 AM

On the social media side of things would it be easier to lock out phones. Something like provider side parental control that parents option when the activate the phone number? There's a lot less social media option then there are porn options so easier to control. Has the benefit of not having to track users trying to figure out what age they are or having to provide personal information.

#33

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 01:04:49 AM

I don't disagree that hard power and the ability to project influence matters, and increasingly so. And that being a superpower in the areas of nice intentions, flowery words, and sitting around talking about things is receding in importance these days. That's absolutely the case, IMO.

Where you and I do have a long standing disagreement is on the impact of propaganda and active undermining of competitors' civil societies. Maybe it's a cause and effect thing. I see it as one of several significant causes, whereas you seem to think of it as primarily a symptom.

Sorry I hadn't actually been thinking about that when I was saying I disagreed I was thinking more that I don't think Russia's role in the world right now is down to propaganda or influence operations. I think it is that it's a state with agency which we're seeing it use in all of those areas. Is it up there with the US and China - absolutely not, but, bluntly, neither's India.

I'll think about what your point on the propaganda side of things because I'm not sure. I think that disagreement is probably right on the causal element but I'm not sure how I'd frame it. My initial instinct is that I think propaganda and civil society is also downstream of the more "hard power" factors, such as capacity for economic autonomy, the failure of a generation of European politicians faced with, say, the financial crash, the Eurozone crisis, the migration crisis etc. But I also think part of it is downstream of cultural shifts and the point that Macron's made, which I think is really interesting, on Europe's post-modernism and de-mythologising instinct/disbelief in grand narratives.

I'd also add that I think relevant here is Valmy's comments on age-gating and regulating the internet. Where I think a lot about Clinton's comments dismissing the Chinese approach to the internet as trying to nail jello to the wall. I think there's a learned helplessness (and incuriosity) in Western politics about the internet. I'm increasingly of the view it's less about regulation and more about control - and we live on America's internet.

In conclusion, I am once again calling for the return of Minitel and BBC Computers produced in state-owned European factories, with a unionised workforce

#34

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Syt - Today at 12:54:15 AM

I think that's a chicken/egg discussion, but the two do reinforce each other.

#35

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Syt - Today at 12:47:16 AM

Stop right now please, unless Maduro coughs up the protection money soon, the war will start. I want to discuss that not have the 145th Israel debate

You think the Trump admin is going to wag the dog with a war in Venezuela to distract from the shitty economy?

Think of all the beautiful wartime powers he could invoke!

[On 3 January 1941, the Nazi Party ended this controversy by switching to international scripts such as Antiqua. Martin Bormann issued a circular (the "normal type decree") to all public offices which declared Fraktur (and its corollary, the Sütterlin-based handwriting) to be Judenlettern (Jewish letters) and prohibited their further use]

#36

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Syt - Today at 12:44:23 AM

Yet another casualty in the War on Woke:

Rubio orders return to Times New Roman font over 'wasteful' Calibri

Good night, sweet Calibri,
And flights of angels sing thee to thy rest.

Comic Sans MS might be more appropriate for this administration.

Seems familiar.

The Fraktur typefaces remained in use in Nazi Germany, when they were initially represented as true German script; official Nazi documents and letterheads employed the font, and the cover of Hitler's Mein Kampf used a hand-drawn version of it.[6] However, more modernized fonts of the Gebrochene Grotesk [de] type such as Tannenberg were in fact the most popular typefaces in Nazi Germany, especially for running text as opposed to decorative uses such as in titles. These fonts were designed in the early 20th century, mainly the 1930s, as grotesque versions of blackletter typefaces. The Nazis heavily used these fonts themselves, although the shift remained controversial; in fact, the press was at times scolded for its frequent use of "Roman characters" under "Jewish influence" and German émigrés were urged to use only "German script".[7][8]

On 3 January 1941, the Nazi Party ended this controversy by switching to international scripts such as Antiqua. Martin Bormann issued a circular (the "normal type decree") to all public offices which declared Fraktur (and its corollary, the Sütterlin-based handwriting) to be Judenlettern (Jewish letters) and prohibited their further use.[9] German historian Albert Kapr has speculated that the regime viewed Fraktur as inhibiting communication in the occupied territories during World War II.[10]

#37

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Jacob - Today at 12:44:03 AM

I kind of disagree on this. I think we're moving into a hard-edged, hard power multipolar world.

You don't get a seat at the table because of who you are, or who you were or the values you believe yourself to embody, or because of "international law" but because of agency. You can decide to do something and can then do it - I'd point that even on the tech front. Russia, like China (and to an extent Iran) have built their own digital infrastructure (payment systems, social media, search, AI etc) precisely because they've had to or want to avoid reliance on the US.

It's not a positve actor in my view, but whether it's Ukraine, the Middle East or Africa, Russia is a state with agency in the world in a way that Europe simply isn't (possible exception for the French). I'd add the Caucasus, Middle East and Africa are particularly striking because I think they're regions where there has been Euro-Russian competition.

I don't disagree that hard power and the ability to project influence matters, and increasingly so. And that being a superpower in the areas of nice intentions, flowery words, and sitting around talking about things is receding in importance these days. That's absolutely the case, IMO.

Where you and I do have a long standing disagreement is on the impact of propaganda and active undermining of competitors' civil societies. Maybe it's a cause and effect thing. I see it as one of several significant causes, whereas you seem to think of it as primarily a symptom.

#38

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Jacob - Today at 12:39:30 AM

That's definitely Putin and Thiel's read on Europe.

#39

Off the Record / Re: Australia begins enforcing...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 12:38:09 AM

There are an infinite number of potential social media options Teens who want to use social media can use. And most of it will barely be recognizable as social media to the Boomers trying to enact this policy. And attempts to enforce it will require tons of virtual ID checks and personal information being stored to monitor who is using what. And all this information will be easily stolen and used by nefarious actors all over the world.

I mean we have a minor porn ban and virtual ID requirement in Texas. All it has done is shut down Pornhub in Texas. But the internet is full of porn of every variety, not just from a few famous websites. My 15 year old son is constantly exposed to thirst traps that I doubt anybody would even consider porn but it is obviously inappropriate content for minors. It is a fools errand. But wow is our personal privacy and data going to suffer tremendously.

I think there's a massive difference between restricting social media and restricting porn.

When it comes to porn, typically consuming it is a solitary activity and porn from one place is as good as porn from any other place (subject to taste and quality concerns). Porn is often shared around for free, and typically the producers are located overseas. I agree that trying to stop it is essentially like building a chain link fence to stop a flood.

Social media, I think, is different. The key part of social media is the network effect. You want to be on the same social network as your peer group and where all the "cool influencers" are. This means that a dodgy social network in China isn't going to replace Instagram for you unless everyone you care about go there as well.

Secondly, while social media companies tend to be slippery and unethical they're still easier to come to grips with than porn producers. If Twitter or Tik-Tok fail to put in adequate controls to adhere to the law the government can levy significant fines or even turn them off altogether.

Maybe it'll be as easy to sidestep as everyone gets a VPN and uses their old accounts, or maybe it'll be trivial to make a new account pretending to be older and everyone will just reconnect. I guess we'll see. But I do think that the characteristics of social media makes it more susceptible to control than porn.

#40

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 12:21:58 AM

Much depends to what extent our politicians are capable of taking the big decisions rather than cucking themselves for the  orange utang in the white house.

Playtime is over, but much of Europe (and that includes its citizens) doesn't seem to have gotten the memo.

I'm fairly pessimistic. I think there's a lot to Jacques Delors' line that Europe advances through crisis (also the framing of Luuk van Middelaar's very good Passage to Europe). I'm not sure we've seen the type of sudden advance or "coup" in van Middelaar's framing. Instead I think so far I'm not seeing those leaps forward or urgency.

I'd add this is one area where I think the "poly-crisis" framing is useful because I actually think it causes inertia. Faced with all of these intersecting crises (war and energy, US and security, China and de-industrialisation, migration and a chaotic near neighbourhood - and, across it all, climate) I'm slightly sorried Europe's like prey hypnotised by a snake. Just one more colloquia to victory.