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#21

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Sheilbh - December 03, 2024, 06:12:44 PM

From Javier Blas of Bloomberg - this feels like China's opening move:

Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
China bans exports of gallium, germanium and antimony to the US. Beijing says the commodities have "dual-use" military use. The Chinese guidance is a bit unclear, saying the "in principle" ban only applies for sales to "military users."

I think there had already been restrictions in response to Biden's EV tariff. But a significant increase and also increased restrictions on exports of graphite to the US because of "dual-use" risks.

#22

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Josquius - December 03, 2024, 05:53:23 PM

I would imagine if reform is to happen it would have to be with somebody who understands the current system.
Though whether its this guy....his CV certainly suggests not.

You hear this a lot, but I can't off the top of my head think of many cases where it's actually true. I feel like the reformers tend to be people who have a very clear idea of what they want to do/where they want to go rather than consummate insiders who know how things currently work (not least because, and I think this goes for every private company too, most people hate change ).

If its an outsider who knows nothing then they fail to do anything or they don't reform, they completely destroy and replace.

#23

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - December 03, 2024, 05:48:37 PM

I would imagine if reform is to happen it would have to be with somebody who understands the current system.
Though whether its this guy....his CV certainly suggests not.

You hear this a lot, but I can't off the top of my head think of many cases where it's actually true. I feel like the reformers tend to be people who have a very clear idea of what they want to do/where they want to go rather than consummate insiders who know how things currently work (not least because, and I think this goes for every private company too, most people hate change ).

Edit: And worth adding one particular concern with this guy is that I've seen some people praising him as very much in the model of Sir Jeremy Heywood. Heywood is hugely admired but I think the consensus now is that he was basically a very, very good civil servant with ministers - the model of the type of person at the British civil service pyramid. Creative, clever etc - perfect advisor for the PM. But he was, reportedly, basically not great (at best, outright neglectful at worst) at the other bit of his job which is running the civil service and make sure it's functioning well. I think there is something to Maude's idea of separating out those roles so you have a CEO who actually runs the civil service and then Cabinet Secretary who is supporting the PM/Cabinet. But that would basically be a demotion and involve giving up power accrued over many years so seems very, very unlikely.

#24

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - December 03, 2024, 05:47:26 PM

I think this Wormald fellow sounds like a perfect fit with the current government. He can help Starmer relabel the levers of government and polish their brass work whilst failing to notice that half of them are no longer connected to anything.

Yeah - I think a lot is Starmer's lack of politics. I'm not really sure he knows what he wants to be in power to do. Just manage it better and make sure proper process is followed.

I think this was always the weakness of reading the previous government as Trump and focusing on the need to protect our institutions when for a long time now the warning lights have been flashing on the health and capacity of Britain's institutions.

It does feel of a part though. Appointing a very Sir Humphrey figure for a "complete rewiring of the British state", while on Labour's key pledges there appears to be a big gap. Centre for Cities today saying Labour's proposed plans will still lead it several hundred thousand homes short of their 1.5 million target. Everyone in the sector says Ed Miliband's targets on decarbonisation of the grid are unattainable (or, for the people directly reporting to Miliband, "stretching") - and the Guardian and others have pointed out that his pledge that it will save the average person money only works if you assume best case scenario on his renewables plans and worst case scenario for everything else.
-
Meanwhile I think so far ten new "independent" bodies have been set up to advise government. Similarly this cabinet is now the first all state educated, I think it's also the first where no-one has a background of running their own business or working on the commercial side of a business (not totally sure but I think that's right) - and I feel that is showing a bit. Then just today a piece on our Northern European (Netherlands, Nordics and Baltics) allies despairing because apparently on defence we've just become very dithery - the government says pending a new strategic defence review. And I saw one of the authors of that saying that we need to focus more on new threats like cyber and not trying to "plug gaps" in the forces we had during the Cold War - which feels very mid-2010s given there's a hot war in Europe and the Americans are getting cold feet.

I think the positive case is that Starmer is very good at course correcting pretty ruthlessly. The challenge with that is I think it's a lot easier to do when you're leader of the opposition and nothing really matters - when you're PM you'll have sunk political costs, policy mistakes/dithers will only come clear later (at the point they're failing to public annoyance) and I can't think of a PM using the "re-launch" narrative successfully as opposed to it just locking in the perception that it's all going wrong. And I think we're already on the second re-launch

They need to get a grip and start governing soon - and their proposals need to start matching the radicalism of their promises. Not least because I think Badenoch is underrated by Labour (and was the best choice for the Tories) - plus elections in Wales next year and one poll this week showing Reform level-pegging with Labour

#25

Off the Record / Re: Youtube Recommendations

Last post by HVC - December 03, 2024, 05:08:44 PM

The Amazon used to flow backwards

#26

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by Barrister - December 03, 2024, 04:38:23 PM

https://www.cbc.ca/news/indigenous/arranged-marriages-residential-schools-1.7396200

Some missing residential school students disappeared into arranged marriages, report says
Researchers say more investigation needed to find out total numbers affected

Samantha Schwientek · CBC News · Posted: Dec 03, 2024 2:00 AM MST | Last Updated: December 3
Leah Redcrow believes her grandparents, Ruby and Stanley Redcrow, could have been put in an arranged marriage back when both were students at Sacred Heart Indian Residential School in Alberta, in 1928. (Submitted by Leah Redcrow)

Some children who disappeared from residential schools ended up in arranged marriages organized by school principals and the government, according to the final report from the special interlocutor for missing children and unmarked graves and burial sites associated with Indian Residential Schools.

Leah Redcrow believes her grandparents, who were married at Sacred Heart Indian Residential School (later called Blue Quills) in Alberta in 1928, may have been one of an unknown number of couples whose marriages were arranged by authorities.

So I find the topic of residential schools really fascinating, and this article tends to show why.

(I have to go - will edit to add more later)

#27

Off the Record / Re: South Korea declares marti...

Last post by Sheilbh - December 03, 2024, 04:36:50 PM

Amid all this, the response of the military seems less than idea even if they're standing down now:

Yonhap: Joint Chiefs of Staff announce troops deployed to Seoul will return to their original units and the disbandment of Martial Law Command

#28

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by viper37 - December 03, 2024, 04:27:10 PM

Bad counterexample.  The characters that murder civilians in the call of duty games are the bad guys.

From what I read, in this game, you are killing Israeli soldiers, not civilians.

I remember shooting a lot of soldiers in Call of Duty, armed or otherwise.  In Sniper Elite, my favorite tactic is to sneak from behind to kill Nazis with a knife in the head while they're busy around a fire drinking coffee or something.  

Second favorite tactic: shooting them from 1000 km while they're sitting calmly, reading papers in their office.

Anything to avoid dying in a blaze of glory charging at tanks with a rifle and a pack of grenades.

#29

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Razgovory - December 03, 2024, 03:56:30 PM

Bad counterexample.  The characters that murder civilians in the call of duty games are the bad guys.

#30

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Grey Fox - December 03, 2024, 03:27:52 PM

There isn't much left left for the left of the Quebec left to go.

Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo English is a stupid language Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo.