Recent posts

#21

Off the Record / Re: Baseball

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 02:55:34 PM

I was nervous that the Jays were going to be relying on the bullpen, up against the young gun Yankee starter. I was impressed by how much of a team win this was.

#22

Off the Record / Re: Grand unified books thread

Last post by The Brain - Today at 02:27:12 PM

His publisher has this to say:

#23

Off the Record / Re: Refractory Gauls, or the F...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 01:46:14 PM

I presume you mean the Third Republic and not the Third Empire, unless Melenchon is a closet Bonapartist. Though that wouldn't even be close to the weirdest thing going on in politics these days.

No I think he's said the Fifth Republic is so President-focused (perhaps especially under Macron) it functions like a Third Empire.

#24

Off the Record / Re: Refractory Gauls, or the F...

Last post by Valmy - Today at 01:40:53 PM

I presume you mean the Third Republic and not the Third Empire, unless Melenchon is a closet Bonapartist. Though that wouldn't even be close to the weirdest thing going on in politics these days.

#25

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Tamas - Today at 01:32:57 PM

Concentrating power just concentrates power - you concentrate power in a few hands with no checks in balances to fight the rich and suddenly you have created your own enemy.

Checks and balances are annoying when your guy is being checked and balanced but the best system invented so far to maintain a democracy.

#26

Off the Record / Re: What are you listening to?

Last post by HVC - Today at 01:32:27 PM

Josephus makes more sense than you

#27

Off the Record / Re: What are you listening to?

Last post by Josquius - Today at 01:23:21 PM

Me?


Tonight I'm going to see the Wedding Present.
I first saw them 18 years ago for the 20th anniversary of their first album being released.
I look forward to being the youngest one there.

#28

Off the Record / Re: Refractory Gauls, or the F...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 12:50:09 PM

How likely are RN and LFI respectively to undermine democracy?

I think this slightly depends on what you mean.

France has quite an authoritarian constitution. It was made to fit the proportions and views of de Gaulle and remedy the flaws (as he perceived them) of the Fourth Republic. So, for example, there are some powers that allow the executive to pass legislation without parliamentary support (subject to a vote of no confidence) - which was used by Macron to raise the pension age (which is a big driver of a lot of the opposition currently in the "block everything" movement). Similarly there are powers for the executive to largely roll over budgets without parliamentary support.

So I think there are resources in the French constitution for a more authoritarian type of politics. These have already been tested by Macron. I think the RN would absolutely push them further.

Melenchon has long called for, and the NPF backs him, the establishment of a Sixth Republic. This is directly against that constitution which I think Melenchon has said is basically the Third Empire in terms of the powers of the President. He wants to become President in order to be the last President (with those powers). From my understanding they want to move to a more proportional, more parliamentary model. The first step would be electing a sovereign constituent assembly - the model they cite is Rafael Correa's changes to the Ecuadorian constitution.

Where do they stand on Europe?

I don't think either backs Frexit or anything like that (Brexit has had the desired dissuasive effect) but both want ver serious reform.

But I think it's very difficult to see either governing without a European crisis - particularly over economic policy and the Euro. I think the RN is most likely to be able to reconcile itself and do a Meloni, while I think a confrontation with Europe would probably be inevitable for an LFI presidency.

I also think - and I don't know how it would play out - that either would cause an absolute crisis for Germany. I think either would be challenging for all European countries and French allies. But I think for Germany it would be particularly severe. Germany policy (including West Germany) since the end of the war has been based on Atlanticism and the Franco-German engine. If there was Trump in the White House plus the RN or Melenchon in the Elysee I think both of those pillars are gone and I'm not sure what the thinking in Germany would be in how to respond to that.

And how likely are they withdraw support of Ukraine?

I think both are very likely to withdraw at least military support. At best I think they'd move to the Irish position - strong moral support but nothing else.

#29

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 12:36:21 PM

Is your support for leaving the ECHR a part of your shift to the far left, Sheilbh? :p

On this I have very much been radicalised by being aware of the sort of stories that get spiked because it's likely to be judged a breach of someone's "right to private and family life". That's the big problem in press freedom in the UK now, not defamation - and unlike defamation the defences are far more limited. If it's a breach of the human rights (of the rich and famous and powerful) then it doesn't matter whether it's true or honest opinion.

But having said that I am also very opposed to the right to property as it is in the convention and the case law (which is why Labour opposed the ECHR and the Tories supported it). And I've moved to the left, not become more of a liberal I've a huge amount of time for the liberal tradition but I don't really agree with the whole dispersing and diffusing power and counter-majoritarian institutions. I think that's part of the problem we face - we need the opposite in democratic societies, to "dare more democracy". We need to be building up and consolidating power (in democratic not technocratic institutions) because the power of the rich has become far, far more concentrated.

The Tories want to leave because they are blaming it for having to take "refugees" in. Of course just like brexit it wouldnt solve a thing.

From everything I've read it would have a big impact on some parts of immigration - particularly family reunion and deportations where the "right to private and family life" has been interpreted very broadly. It is something Mahmood and Cooper before her flagged that what were supposed to be "exceptions" to the rules now apply in over a third of cases.

Also deportations of criminals and suspected criminals. See the alleged murderer and rapist in Brazil who cannot be extradited (despite an extradition treaty with Brazil) because Brazilian jails do not meet the human rights standards of British jails.

On the other hand I actually have a fair bit of sympathy for the obstacles (not exclusively from the ECHR) in the 15 year effort to extradite Abu Qatada (formerly of al-Qaeda) for a terrorism trial in Jordan which ended up with a specific UK-Jordan treaty to prevent torture. I think that case frustrated a lot of people, including every Home Secretary from David Blunkett to Theresa May - but I think that was a good outcome.

#30

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 11:28:11 AM

It's the same damn argument I made in the very first post.

For what it's worth, that's exactly how I understood your argument when you made it the first time.