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#21
Off the Record / Re: The Population Decline Thr...
Last post by Sheilbh - September 14, 2025, 03:30:38 PMQuote from: Tamas on September 14, 2025, 03:15:13 PMI still don't understand why I am supposed to be worried about this when for most of my life I was supposed to be worried about overpopulation. Either the decline forecast is inaccurate because the overpopulation one is still valid, or if the latter is indeed now invalid, then confidence in the population decline one can't be high at all considering how the overpopulation one ended up being bogus.On a purely parochial level in the UK I think there is an issue but it's primarily that old people vote (which intersects with other factors like home-ownership). So turnout is about 35% higher among the over 65s than 18-24 year olds, and also between outright homeowners than private and social renters (and those groups overlap more or less 100%).
I think this has an impact on policy. So between the crash and now (2007-2025) expenditure on welfare and benefits for children and working age adults (excluding the NHS and housing benefit) declined from 2.8% to 1.9% of GDP. Spending on the state pension increased from 3.7% to 5% of GDP. In ash terms the average working age household are £1,500 worse off and the average pension is £800 better off. It's a good policy achievement in my lifetime that pensioner poverty has halved, but child poverty remains high. On an intergenerational level, over the last 25 years there have been net benefits for the old and net cuts for the young. I think that's a problem
But I also think there's a risk around a large and powerful voting bloc being post-economic. The elderly are largely unaffected by the economic cycle as they have state and private pensions, plus asset ownership (again through pensions but also their homes). There's been some European wide research on this (because I think this is an issue across Europe). Broadly speaking older voters prioritise short-terms spending on pensions and healthcare over childcare and education. They are far less concerned with economic growth or employment rates (and don't reward governments for delivering them or punish or failure), they are far more sensitive to inflation and punish governments for that (there's an interesting set of research basically showing that the older a country is the more fiscally conservative/anti-inflationary that country's left-wing party is). In the UK the elderly also do not like policies that might improve growth, such as planning reform, that could impact the value of their assets. So I think you basically have a risk of an electoral system that rewards low inflation over jobs and growth, health and pensions over social and infrastructure spending - which is not great.
It's one of the reasons that if I had dictatorial powers for a day the electoral reform I'd introduce would be mandatory voting to try and equalise the power of the old a bit.
#22
Off the Record / Re: The Population Decline Thr...
Last post by Norgy - September 14, 2025, 03:23:38 PMThe "population decline" has been a theme for well over 100 years. Add some eugenics to it, too.
The fear of not having enough manpower for war was quite clear in France before WWI.
We have these "Great replacement" people, of course, but declining birth rates are not a bad thing, when we spend most resources on Earth before April each year.
The fear of not having enough manpower for war was quite clear in France before WWI.
We have these "Great replacement" people, of course, but declining birth rates are not a bad thing, when we spend most resources on Earth before April each year.
#23
Off the Record / Re: The Population Decline Thr...
Last post by Tamas - September 14, 2025, 03:15:13 PMI still don't understand why I am supposed to be worried about this when for most of my life I was supposed to be worried about overpopulation. Either the decline forecast is inaccurate because the overpopulation one is still valid, or if the latter is indeed now invalid, then confidence in the population decline one can't be high at all considering how the overpopulation one ended up being bogus.
#24
Off the Record / Re: Grand unified books thread
Last post by Sheilbh - September 14, 2025, 02:18:24 PMSo weirdly enough on vicarious radicals etc.
I'm reading the Women's Prize list at the minute and honestly it's a bit less enjoyable for my tastes. I think it's a broader, more inclusive list which includes some fairly straight forward more popular/less (hate the phrase) "literary" fiction - and it has included my least favourite book of the year.
But I've enjoyed it because it introduced me to Fundamentally by Nussaibah Younis which I would not otherwise have read (although fantastic cover page - so, maybe...). It's not the book on this sort of subject I expected. So Dr Nussaibah Younis is from the UK she studied at Oxford, Durham and Harvard and for several years advised the Iraqi government on deradicaliising women affiliated with ISIS.
And that is a big part of this book which is a novel a British Asian woman who's an academic and basically disowned by her more religious mum who ends up leading a UN group to deradicalise ISIS women so they can be moved from camps and re-patriated to their home countries. At the camps she meets Sara, a young funny, sweary East Londoner who joined ISIS at fifteen. They've got a lot in common until it all starts to spiral.
It sounds like it could be heavy but it is written as a really popular, very funny airport read (honestly a bit "chick-lit") and I really enjoyed it for it. Way lighter and more fun than I expected but still at points pretty thought-provoking and it doesn't just take the easiest route on some of the characters and settings.
I'm reading the Women's Prize list at the minute and honestly it's a bit less enjoyable for my tastes. I think it's a broader, more inclusive list which includes some fairly straight forward more popular/less (hate the phrase) "literary" fiction - and it has included my least favourite book of the year.
But I've enjoyed it because it introduced me to Fundamentally by Nussaibah Younis which I would not otherwise have read (although fantastic cover page - so, maybe...). It's not the book on this sort of subject I expected. So Dr Nussaibah Younis is from the UK she studied at Oxford, Durham and Harvard and for several years advised the Iraqi government on deradicaliising women affiliated with ISIS.
And that is a big part of this book which is a novel a British Asian woman who's an academic and basically disowned by her more religious mum who ends up leading a UN group to deradicalise ISIS women so they can be moved from camps and re-patriated to their home countries. At the camps she meets Sara, a young funny, sweary East Londoner who joined ISIS at fifteen. They've got a lot in common until it all starts to spiral.
It sounds like it could be heavy but it is written as a really popular, very funny airport read (honestly a bit "chick-lit") and I really enjoyed it for it. Way lighter and more fun than I expected but still at points pretty thought-provoking and it doesn't just take the easiest route on some of the characters and settings.
#25
Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic
Last post by HVC - September 14, 2025, 01:34:06 PM
#26
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by Tonitrus - September 14, 2025, 12:20:48 PMIt seems like our latest sanction delay tactic is a "hey Euros, you first" kind of ploy. And a very clever one, because it lets Putin's man Orban tie things up.
#27
Off the Record / Re: The Population Decline Thr...
Last post by Josquius - September 14, 2025, 11:07:00 AMQuote from: celedhring on September 14, 2025, 10:46:22 AM.
I don't think it's the only reason, though - birth rate is also cratering in countries with little woman emancipation - look up Iran or Saudi Arabia for example.
I'm not sure they're great counter examples.
For all women lack rights in many areas they have pretty good rights in others - more women getting university education than men in Saudi, Islamic divorce law, etc...
#28
Off the Record / Re: The Population Decline Thr...
Last post by celedhring - September 14, 2025, 10:46:22 AMYeah, both my brother and his wife have to work in order to sustain the household (mortgage, car, school, etc...). So they have to juggle that with raising their kid. Simply put, nowadays being alive is expensive. And a kid is a big burden.
I don't think it's the only reason, though - birth rate is also cratering in countries with little woman emancipation - look up Iran or Saudi Arabia for example.
I don't think it's the only reason, though - birth rate is also cratering in countries with little woman emancipation - look up Iran or Saudi Arabia for example.
#29
Off the Record / Re: The Population Decline Thr...
Last post by Iormlund - September 14, 2025, 10:36:29 AMQuote from: crazy canuck on September 13, 2025, 06:45:34 PMParents have never had so much leisure time ...
Leisure choice, sure. Time, no way.
Back when I was a kid only a minority of women worked. What one member of the family once did, now has to be split between both parents, on top of their jobs plus commute.
Letting the kids roam the streets is no longer acceptable, either. Which is how my dad was raised even as part of the upper-middle class in the 60s.
#30
Off the Record / Re: The Population Decline Thr...
Last post by Josquius - September 14, 2025, 02:21:53 AMI can't see an author name on it.
Cynically I would say "Maybe it was written by a man".
For a man it's "never" been harder to have children (never meaning a very limited "in recent times")
Both on the having to look after the kids side of things but more importantly the economics of one salary not doing the job.
And that's the other key part of declining birth rates really. Women getting a choice. They don't just have kids no matter what. They do the sums and say no. Assuming it was even a yes to begin with.
Cynically I would say "Maybe it was written by a man".
For a man it's "never" been harder to have children (never meaning a very limited "in recent times")
Both on the having to look after the kids side of things but more importantly the economics of one salary not doing the job.
And that's the other key part of declining birth rates really. Women getting a choice. They don't just have kids no matter what. They do the sums and say no. Assuming it was even a yes to begin with.