Recent posts

#21

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by DGuller - Today at 02:22:24 PM

I tend to think it goes in this order (from best to worst):

• A liberal economic order with competent leadership and appropriate regulations and safeguards
• Centrally planned economy with competent leaderships and appropriate safeguards
• A liberal economic order with incompetent or corrupt leadership with misaligned regulations and safeguards
• Centrally planned economy with incompetent or corrupt leadership with misaligned regulations and safeguards

My read is that China's is tending towards 2, with dashes of 4; while the US is going all in at 3.

I'm not sure that good planned economy can beat out shitty liberal economy, even with excellent leadership.  Part of the reason is that the scale of what needs managing is just too much, and would require many more levels of delegation than humans have learned to manage.  Another reason is that keeping the system competent and free of corruption for long is very hard.

I think it gets more uncertain when you add a hybrid category, something that has both a Five Year Plan and NEP.  That may have more of a chance at beating the shittiest of liberal economies.

#22

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 02:02:05 PM

I have thought that a centrally planned economy might work with sophisticated enough data and computer resources.

That's a very old debate.  Oskar Lange was arguing its possibility in the 1930s.

The problem is that even if you had the computing power needed and a workable model, how do you know and how can you get all the necessary information to input into the model?

I think in the age of AI China would eventually have better information about your wants than you do. 

It's not just your final duty...you want to go into the tanks and become one with all the people.

#23

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Jacob - Today at 02:00:20 PM

I tend to think it goes in this order (from best to worst):

• A liberal economic order with competent leadership and appropriate regulations and safeguards
• Centrally planned economy with competent leaderships and appropriate safeguards
• A liberal economic order with incompetent or corrupt leadership with misaligned regulations and safeguards
• Centrally planned economy with incompetent or corrupt leadership with misaligned regulations and safeguards

My read is that China's is tending towards 2, with dashes of 4; while the US is going all in at 3.

#24

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by DGuller - Today at 01:58:56 PM

I have thought that a centrally planned economy might work with sophisticated enough data and computer resources.

That's a very old debate.  Oskar Lange was arguing its possibility in the 1930s.

The problem is that even if you had the computing power needed and a workable model, how do you know and how can you get all the necessary information to input into the model?

I think in the age of AI China would eventually have better information about your wants than you do. 

#25

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by DGuller - Today at 01:56:23 PM

Going through the 1.08 beta patch notes and saw this:

Exiting using Alt+F4 in Ironman will now save the game.

I accidentally discovered a much more convenient way to cheese the Ironman:  by default your saves get saved to a OneDrive-linked folder, which versions the save file automatically.  If there is no syncing to the cloud, you can just roll back your save to one of quite a few prior versions and overwrite the current save.  I only did it once when I was trying to roll back the save for a HOI4 game far back enough to escape out of CtD loop.

#26

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Zanza - Today at 01:48:49 PM

The ECB is working on introducing a digital Euro to break the American dominance in payment processing. Let's see if they can make it work. There have been other such attempts from private actors before that failed.

For digital services there are European alternatives in most cases already, but convenience and  network effects lock people into these American services. EU sovereign cloud is a big topic in IT operations these days as resilience means you cannot rely on American hyperscalers. I do not see a cost efficient alternative yet though and the European capital markets are too weak to fund a massive homegrown competition.

#27

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 01:37:26 PM

Oof, it is good to remember how much power we have given to the Americans. It seemed ok when that power was not used aggressively, but now...

#28

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Valmy - Today at 01:33:04 PM

Probably through trial and error.

But what to try and how do you recognize error?
Hayek was wrong about almost everything but not about the knowledge problem. We don't even know what it is we need to know.

Yeah I don't know. It is really just a theoretical thought experiment. If we had some kind of super AI gathering all the important data and managing the economy to achieve certain objectives could it work?

#29

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 01:33:04 PM

I have thought that a centrally planned economy might work with sophisticated enough data and computer resources.

We'll see if China successfully models it for us 

It's an interesting thought experiment, that might work if (and it's a big if) self interest of the decision makers is removed. What we are seeing in China are decisions being made for a reason other than optimal well being of the population.  It's a bit like the when say communism failed in the Soviet Union and the reply being that Communism was never tried in the Soviet Union.  But the question remains, could it ever really be implemented, or would self interest of those in charge always become the imperative.


I tend to think it is the latter, and for all its warts, Liberal Democracy may be the best model.

Well central planning has almost certainly been tried. Seems to me a regulated market economy works with the least disastrous results.

Liberal Democracy is not an economic model But if it is I would say straight up liberalism has a long history of disastrous economic meltdowns.

Central planning to achieve political objectives yes.  But I read into your thought experiment an attempt to achieve optimal economic outcomes.  I don't think that has ever been attempted.

#30

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 01:31:55 PM

This might be entirely wrong, but there seems to be a similarity with Canadian polling. About a third of our population are always going to be Conservative supporters, independent of the policies of the party. So I am not sure it is correct to assume everyone carefully considers the positions of each of the options and then basis their vote on that analysis.  Quite the opposite, if the polling numbers are accurate.