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#21

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 07:51:37 PM

Canada sending another 383 Roshel Senator armoured vehicles and 66 LAV 6 armoured combat vehicles to Ukraine.

I tend to agree with those who think that Putin's main way to win the war is to find a way to remove European (and Canadian) support for Ukraine now that the US has almost entirely withdrawn support. So I'm always happy to see more support.

Conversely, I think the highest likelihood for a favourable end to the war for Ukraine comes with a Russian economic collapse. Hopefully the Iran shenanigans doesn't result in a long term surge in oil prices such that it shores up Putin's economy.

#22

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by viper37 - Today at 07:50:09 PM

Not sure why he was still of interest,

To make sure the regime is destabilized as much as possible, no one they can easily turn to for a leadership role in the immediate aftermath of the strikes.

Was he even in the running?

He wasn't.  But let's say there's a power vacuum because the top leadership dies unexpectedly.  Who do you turn to, either as a leader or advisor?  No matter the differences with the Ayatollahs, I assume he's still a patriot and would have worked toward stabilizing the country as much as he could.

Anyway destabilizing a place just means the most psychotic thug takes charge. I don't know why that would be better.

And that's why you're not MAGA. You think way too far ahead.

#23

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Jacob - Today at 07:38:36 PM

I think Canada would make sense as an addition but I would resist expanding this - instead I'd suggest taking it as a model.

Yeah, for sure. When I say it's a potential vehicle for others to attach to, what I meant is "after something happens". I.e. Russia tries to seize Gotland or Bornholm or something, the JEF responds quickly using its existing structure. Perhaps France, Germany, and Poland all say "fuck this, you know what we're going to fight the Russians too". Instead of having to figure out how to stand up a multi-national force inside or outside the EU (or NATO) if those groups aren't aligned and ready to go yet, they can potentially integrate their forces into something built on top of the JEF structure at shorter notice.

So very much aligned with the idea of regional JEF-like structures elsewhere - though it doesn't preclude the JEF from doing what Mongers alludes to, namely deploying outside of the Baltic and North Atlantic (even if having a robust defense there is the precipitating reason for the JEF).

Maybe it turns into a two-speed Europe (or more speeds), but for the military.

#24

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Jacob - Today at 07:17:52 PM

If the Iranian regime is brought down and the Iranian people get better more free government that would be incredible, and to Trump and his backers' credit, much as I loathe them.

#25

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Legbiter - Today at 06:59:30 PM

A dash of wholesome to this Third Gulf War. Kuwaiti civilians approach a downed F-15 pilot.

The value of just this one clip is vastly greater than the cost of one F-15.

#26

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 06:38:04 PM

I see, thanks. I recall Canada recently started shipping LNG out of BC. Wonder why it took so long, and why we don't ship out to Europe. Probably valid reasons, but I'll bring out the classic and blame Quebec with or without reason . I actually worked for a company that produced portable chilling units to facilitate  the trapping of  gasses from oil extraction instead of burning it off.

I joke with sheilbh, but given the shit going down south of the border we (Canada) really should have invested in our export infrastructure.

It's just taken that long to get the infrastructure in place to do it. As you alluded to in your post building, the ports to facilitate the export of LNG was quite an undertaking.

This is a good example of an area where first nation governments stepped up and took the lead. But for their role, we probably wouldn't have any active ports ready yet.

#27

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by mongers - Today at 06:37:32 PM

....

FWIW the British (and I assume Canadian) focus on the High North and North Atlantic, (West) German focus on land forces in Central Europe and Italy in the Med would also basically replicate the more specific roles those nations played in Cold War NATO. So you'd hope it kind of echoes existing capabilities and strategic thinking.

Shelf, the most recent JEF exercise had UK land forces deployed by road and by strategic sea-lift vessels (not American by UK, I forget the ship class name) to the Roumanian border near Moldova.

I don't think they intentionally make these exercises unrealistic or do them for shit and giggles, one would have to assume there's a fair degree of flexibility in the it's operational abilities.

#28

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 06:35:04 PM

Saskatchewan has been doing it since, I think, it became a province.


There is some absurd number in favour of this move, something like 93%. So it's a bit of a surprise it took BC politicians this long, but thankfully this will be the last time we have to adjust our clocks.  I just wish we could've made the move permanent after gaining an hour rather than losing an hour.

 

#29

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by mongers - Today at 06:28:39 PM

Really good overview video Jacob. I learned quite a bit. I didn't know the Dutch had such a good marines contingent.

The son of a good friend of mine is in the Royal Netherlands Marines, hard to tell which one of them is most proud.

Training on a par with UK R.M.

#30

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Legbiter - Today at 06:24:15 PM

I'm not buying that, it reads too much like a wis-list of what should happen to prove the IDF/trump 'strategy' was justified.

It sent a cold shiver down my spine. Libya in 2011 was a flawless masterpiece of NATObros coming together in perfect transatlantic harmony to oust a loathsome POS dictator hellbent on slaughtering his own people. Zero (0) NATO casualties, perfect execution, mission accomplished. And then the...hangover.

Trump basically is my darker 14 year old self with the world's most expensive HOI IV habit (in strict dollar terms). Putin comes in a very close second.