Recent posts

#11

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Valmy - Today at 03:07:46 PM

They aren't our allies. They voted for Trump last time. Friendship over.

Lot of people disagree.  Especially in Europe.  I can't get help but think that J.K. Rowling would get a pass if she wore a hijab.

Well I would like to hear their case then.

#12

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 03:00:05 PM

I asked Google AI if Google is a monopoly.

It said "yes".

#13

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by Admiral Yi - Today at 02:59:19 PM

https://www.marketingcharts.com/charts/us-digital-ad-spend-share-google-vs-meta-vs-amazon

My source.

#14

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by HVC - Today at 02:54:33 PM

Don't know what any of this means but this is the reply I got when I searched

Google's control over the digital ad ecosystem
Ad exchange: Approximately 50% of the market share.
Publisher ad server: Approximately 90% of the market share.
Buy-side market: Approximately 40-80% of the market share.

*edit* unvetted AI reply, FYI.

#15

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by Admiral Yi - Today at 02:41:21 PM

Seven posts up, fourth line down, fifth word.

If you've been clear what the issue is, the answers to my questions should be simple.

Google is the owner of a small fraction of the billboards in the world, owns a small fraction of the printing machines, and employs a small fraction of the guys who put the posters up.

Googled it and turns out the own 29.7% of the *digital* ad market, which is not the total ad market.

#16

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by HVC - Today at 02:25:03 PM

Hello Sophia everything OK?


Edit - my boys first message.
I don't know a Sophia.

Ghost. If movies have taught me anything is that kids can see ghosts.

#17

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Josquius - Today at 02:20:10 PM

Hello Sophia everything OK?


Edit - my boys first message.
I don't know a Sophia.

#18

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by Josquius - Today at 02:14:18 PM

Come on. That's playing too dumb. You don't know what I mean by behind the scenes when I specifically mention it in a paragraph about advertising?

They absolutely do have a monopoly in parts of advertising on a par with their search dominance. Something like 90% of ads flow through their server.

I can infer that behind the scenes means all the activities Google engages in apart from the directly consumer facing aspects.  I don't understand focus.  Who is supposed to focus?  What will their focus result in?  I don't understand the relationship between focus and breaking up the company.  Will more attention be paid to their back room shenanigans once they are broken up?  Will breaking them up make it harder to hide their back room shenanigans?

I don't know what you mean. I never mentioned the word focus.
 I think I've been pretty clear what the issue is.

Google has a monopoly on advertising on their site to the exact same extent the owner of a single billboard does.

In this analogy Google is the owner of a huge chunk of the billboards in the world, owns the poster printing machine and all the guys who put the posters up work for them.... And it has detailed information about the people who will see all the billboards, even the ones they don't own.

#19

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Admiral Yi - Today at 02:06:13 PM

heh

#20

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 02:05:48 PM

Nov 21 from Caixin

By the end of September, Chinese mills had produced 746 million tons of crude steel, down 2.9% from a year earlier. But domestic consumption slumped 5.7% to just under 649 million tons, a much steeper decline. The imbalance sent a clear message: in the world's largest steel-producing nation, the core problem isn't output. It's overcapacity, with too few buyers at home to absorb what's being produced.

That demand shortfall is reverberating through the economy. Steel prices have slid to multi-year lows — with the China Steel Price Index briefly dipping below 90 in June, the lowest since 2017. Industry executives, analysts, and government officials now say a structural shift is underway: from decades of expansion to a difficult period of contraction and consolidation.

. . .

To fill the widening gap, Chinese steelmakers are aggressively pivoting to export markets. In 2024, outbound shipments surged to 110 million tons, up 22.7% from the year before. The momentum continued into 2025, with 87.96 million tons exported in the first nine months, a 9.2% year-on-year increase. Analysts expect the full-year figure could reach 130 million tons, nearing an all-time high.

But volume has come at the cost of value. The average price of Chinese steel exports dropped 19.3% in 2024 to $755.40 per ton. This year, prices fell another 9.5%. Many steelmakers are caught in a high-stakes race to preserve market share overseas — even if it means selling at razor-thin margins or below cost. "Domestic demand is weak, foreign markets are better," one coastal mill executive told Caixin. "So we're all focused on expanding abroad."

. . .

With trade tensions simmering and environmental targets looming, experts say China's steel exports are approaching a ceiling — already accounting for around 30% of global trade. Over the next five years, direct exports may fall by half, according to Jiangsu Steel Association President Chen Hongbing. That would push China's apparent steel consumption down from more than 1 billion tons today to around 750 million — a contraction that would reshape not just an industry, but a cornerstone of China's post-reform economy

Not sustainable.

And steel is one example among many.