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#11
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Sheilbh - October 24, 2025, 07:21:35 PMBut they're tied - there's loads of pull factors that are relevant (English language, exiting diasporas etc).
But in the UK broadly you can move from illegal to having a right to becoming legally resident (and eligible for citizenship) in a whole variety of circumstances. It's not always the case but broadly things like if it would be difficult for you to be returned to your country of origin (no work, education, family, friends or wouldn't be accepted etc), if you've lived in the UK for a long time (especially if you're young) or if you have a partner or child who has British residency or citizenship (especially a child with citizenship).
That's a world away from deporting someone who's lived in the country since they were a toddler or deporting a family because they claim too many beneifts, or citizenship at the third generation. That is also a pull factor and a deterrent for Switzerland (and actually a fair few other European countries - Switzerland's extremely restrictive, but the UK is currently at the liberal end of Europe on acquiring permanent residency and then citizenship).
But in the UK broadly you can move from illegal to having a right to becoming legally resident (and eligible for citizenship) in a whole variety of circumstances. It's not always the case but broadly things like if it would be difficult for you to be returned to your country of origin (no work, education, family, friends or wouldn't be accepted etc), if you've lived in the UK for a long time (especially if you're young) or if you have a partner or child who has British residency or citizenship (especially a child with citizenship).
That's a world away from deporting someone who's lived in the country since they were a toddler or deporting a family because they claim too many beneifts, or citizenship at the third generation. That is also a pull factor and a deterrent for Switzerland (and actually a fair few other European countries - Switzerland's extremely restrictive, but the UK is currently at the liberal end of Europe on acquiring permanent residency and then citizenship).
#12
Off the Record / Re: Your Orientation?
Last post by Valmy - October 24, 2025, 07:04:53 PMNorth-South. Because the door is on the south wall.
This actually became kind of a problem during Winter Storm Uri as the entire north side of my house froze.
This actually became kind of a problem during Winter Storm Uri as the entire north side of my house froze.
#13
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Valmy - October 24, 2025, 07:03:51 PMIs it some kind of shocking new idea that Ronald Reagan was against tariffs?
#14
Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic
Last post by Josquius - October 24, 2025, 06:55:42 PMMy boy has recently gotten into an old children's atlas I have, published in 1994.
One page speaks about the CIS.
Gorillas live in Zaire.
But weirdly, on the page India and it's neighbours.... Sikkhim is an independent state. This...was already long out of date in the 90s.
One page speaks about the CIS.
Gorillas live in Zaire.
But weirdly, on the page India and it's neighbours.... Sikkhim is an independent state. This...was already long out of date in the 90s.
#15
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Tamas - October 24, 2025, 06:54:07 PMQuote from: grumbler on October 24, 2025, 05:15:41 PMQuote from: Tamas on October 24, 2025, 04:57:06 PMWhat should they have to do with each other?
You are the one that quoted Yi and responded, so it's likelier that you know what (if anything) you meant by doing so.
You would think so, wouldn't you.
#16
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Josquius - October 24, 2025, 06:44:15 PMThe by election - I'm thinking similar. So much of the reporting seems to be about how bad it is for labour. They're doomed. Reform is going to destroy them. Even the tories, who did even worse, were gloating about this.
I'd take a more optimistic message though.... Its a sign that though 3x% are willing to vote reform, a significant chunk of the majority left over are willing to vote tactically to stop them.
Swiss citizenship is of course broken.
I personally knew 2nd or 3rd generation in Switzerland non-Swiss people - my partners family fits this.
The integration into Swiss life thing... It's not much of an investigation but it's very variable and can be quite arbitrary. It's heavily up your local commune as really you're not getting Swiss citizenship, you're getting commune citizenship which means canton which means Switzerland.
So in a small village it comes down to a personal level of do they like you - there was a famous case some years ago of a woman denied citizenship because she was deemed too annoying.
In Lausanne on the other hand it tends to be just a basic chat with some officials to make sure you know French and some basic stuff about the country.
I remember a girl I was going out with was doing hers in Geneva and she had to do some quiz which was asking things like on what street is such and such a church or theatre.
Swiss citizenship is not something I'd want to imitate.
But i was talking about the other end of the scale. Illegal immigration.
Switzerland doesn't have this as bad as many others as it has quite a tight system around employment and a small black economy - helped by something we should copy them on more broadly, fines based on the wealth of the person breaking the rule.
Another thing I think they do nicely on immigration is doing it on a cantonal level. I'd be curious to see that tried in the UK. Let's Scotland and London keep being liberal whilst letting more reform inclined places pull up the drawbridge and screw themselves
I'd take a more optimistic message though.... Its a sign that though 3x% are willing to vote reform, a significant chunk of the majority left over are willing to vote tactically to stop them.
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 24, 2025, 03:40:25 PMQuote from: Josquius on October 23, 2025, 09:15:45 AMI think Switzerland presents a decent example here. Very little border controls. Just stroll right in. But illegal immigration numbers are actually rather small as there's not much of a niche for illegal workers.There's a few points in the thread I'll come back to but I just wanted to comment on this.
Switzerland has among the most restrictive citizenship laws in Europe. It is very difficult to become a Swiss citizen particularly if you are "low-skilled". There's been a recent liberalisation which is intended to make it easier for the grandchildren of immigrants to obtain citizenship. Implicit within that is that you can be born and live your entire life in Switzerland without being Swiss - so subject to immigration rules and conditions. The process includes very intrusive (and, from my understanding, deliberately Islamophobic) investigation by the state on whether you've "successfully assimilated" into Swiss society.
There was a Spectator piece in praise of Switzerland which kind of highlighted what that means in practice. The two cases they had were both of people who had lived in Switzerland for over twenty years being deported. One was a Kosovan who had moved to Switzerland as a toddler who, as a young adult, committed a violent crime and was deported. The other was of a family, I think from Albania or Kosovo, who were also deported after over 20 years of residence because of economic inactivity (they'd cost too much in benefits).
There are national and cantonal quotas on the number of migrants. And in the context of successful asylum seekers dispersal across the country as well as policies to avoid the creation of "ghettos" (a bit like in Denmark). In addition Switzerland explicitly links their aid policy to a willingness by a country to take back deportees.
It's not a niche - it's just a country that is very hostile to immigration (in terms of people moving and settling permanently) v temporary/guest-working/expat style migration.
I broadly take the polar opposite view. Have a well-enforced border and remove people who've crossed it illegally - but have transparent, simple rules (for asylum and any other visas); straightforward routes to citizenship (with some stuff around integration - I think language tests and courses on life in Britain etc are useful); and generally the state not intervening too much in the types of lives migrants live as they settle in Britain and become British over time.
Swiss citizenship is of course broken.
I personally knew 2nd or 3rd generation in Switzerland non-Swiss people - my partners family fits this.
The integration into Swiss life thing... It's not much of an investigation but it's very variable and can be quite arbitrary. It's heavily up your local commune as really you're not getting Swiss citizenship, you're getting commune citizenship which means canton which means Switzerland.
So in a small village it comes down to a personal level of do they like you - there was a famous case some years ago of a woman denied citizenship because she was deemed too annoying.
In Lausanne on the other hand it tends to be just a basic chat with some officials to make sure you know French and some basic stuff about the country.
I remember a girl I was going out with was doing hers in Geneva and she had to do some quiz which was asking things like on what street is such and such a church or theatre.
Swiss citizenship is not something I'd want to imitate.
But i was talking about the other end of the scale. Illegal immigration.
Switzerland doesn't have this as bad as many others as it has quite a tight system around employment and a small black economy - helped by something we should copy them on more broadly, fines based on the wealth of the person breaking the rule.
Another thing I think they do nicely on immigration is doing it on a cantonal level. I'd be curious to see that tried in the UK. Let's Scotland and London keep being liberal whilst letting more reform inclined places pull up the drawbridge and screw themselves
#17
Off the Record / Re: Your Orientation?
Last post by Zoupa - October 24, 2025, 06:16:26 PMI sleep standing up, facing east. *Clémenceau*
#18
Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread
Last post by Admiral Yi - October 24, 2025, 05:46:46 PM
#19
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Admiral Yi - October 24, 2025, 05:43:33 PMQuote from: The Minsky Moment on October 24, 2025, 08:51:40 AMSo every unsolved, unprosecuted murder was lawful?
There are cases in which we know people have been murdered (say a drive by) but we can't positively ID the shooters. That does not describe Trump's immigration actions. We know who ordered it, we know who is executing it, what we don't have is a court saying this is lawless and must stop.
#20
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Sheilbh - October 24, 2025, 05:26:57 PMBy the by - there was a Senedd by-election in Caerphilly. It's a seat in the Senedd that's always been held by Labour. It doesn't directly map onto the UK constituency but Caerphilly has always been Labour since the seat was first created over 100 years ago.
The result today:
And the swing:
Obviously always dangerous to read too much from one by-election but this is core Labour, Welsh valley heartlands so not great. The polling in the national Senedd elections in May are bad too.
I feel like there's two ways of looking at it. They're both true but I'm not sure which matters most. One is that the two main parties are on 13% between them and that's the core fact of our politics right now. Support for and trust in both the main parties is collapsing (and I think voters are in a bit of a punishing mood).
On the other this also shows that while there is a swing to Reform, there is also a willingness for other voters of the centre and centre left to coalesce around a "stop Reform/Farage" candidate whoever that will be in their local seat. Reform appear to have plateaued in the polling and even be falling back a little bit. It's a long way out etc etc but I think we under-price the possibility of a Lib-Lab coalition at the next election, or even a government further to the left. But I think that tactical voting is a little dubious - thinking back to 2015 and 2019. I slightly wonder if that tactical voting is itself conditional on those possibilities being underpriced - i.e. if the threat is Farage then voters from centre-left to (some) centre-right might coalesce to block Farage, but if the threat is a government with, say, Zack Polanski or Plaid and the SNP having a decisive vote, I wonder if those centre-right to (some) centre-left voters decide against tactical voting
Edit: Oh also the Welsh Labour campaign is one of the weirdest I've ever seen on social media. I have no idea who is doing their socials but it was....odd. A little less a campaign than a cry for help. Like this TikTok:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DP9mazciH5t/
Or this Insta post:
The result today:
And the swing:
Obviously always dangerous to read too much from one by-election but this is core Labour, Welsh valley heartlands so not great. The polling in the national Senedd elections in May are bad too.
I feel like there's two ways of looking at it. They're both true but I'm not sure which matters most. One is that the two main parties are on 13% between them and that's the core fact of our politics right now. Support for and trust in both the main parties is collapsing (and I think voters are in a bit of a punishing mood).
On the other this also shows that while there is a swing to Reform, there is also a willingness for other voters of the centre and centre left to coalesce around a "stop Reform/Farage" candidate whoever that will be in their local seat. Reform appear to have plateaued in the polling and even be falling back a little bit. It's a long way out etc etc but I think we under-price the possibility of a Lib-Lab coalition at the next election, or even a government further to the left. But I think that tactical voting is a little dubious - thinking back to 2015 and 2019. I slightly wonder if that tactical voting is itself conditional on those possibilities being underpriced - i.e. if the threat is Farage then voters from centre-left to (some) centre-right might coalesce to block Farage, but if the threat is a government with, say, Zack Polanski or Plaid and the SNP having a decisive vote, I wonder if those centre-right to (some) centre-left voters decide against tactical voting
Edit: Oh also the Welsh Labour campaign is one of the weirdest I've ever seen on social media. I have no idea who is doing their socials but it was....odd. A little less a campaign than a cry for help. Like this TikTok:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DP9mazciH5t/
Or this Insta post: