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#11

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Valmy - Today at 01:33:04 PM

Probably through trial and error.

But what to try and how do you recognize error?
Hayek was wrong about almost everything but not about the knowledge problem. We don't even know what it is we need to know.

Yeah I don't know. It is really just a theoretical thought experiment. If we had some kind of super AI gathering all the important data and managing the economy to achieve certain objectives could it work?

#12

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 01:33:04 PM

I have thought that a centrally planned economy might work with sophisticated enough data and computer resources.

We'll see if China successfully models it for us 

It's an interesting thought experiment, that might work if (and it's a big if) self interest of the decision makers is removed. What we are seeing in China are decisions being made for a reason other than optimal well being of the population.  It's a bit like the when say communism failed in the Soviet Union and the reply being that Communism was never tried in the Soviet Union.  But the question remains, could it ever really be implemented, or would self interest of those in charge always become the imperative.


I tend to think it is the latter, and for all its warts, Liberal Democracy may be the best model.

Well central planning has almost certainly been tried. Seems to me a regulated market economy works with the least disastrous results.

Liberal Democracy is not an economic model But if it is I would say straight up liberalism has a long history of disastrous economic meltdowns.

Central planning to achieve political objectives yes.  But I read into your thought experiment an attempt to achieve optimal economic outcomes.  I don't think that has ever been attempted.

#13

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 01:31:55 PM

This might be entirely wrong, but there seems to be a similarity with Canadian polling. About a third of our population are always going to be Conservative supporters, independent of the policies of the party. So I am not sure it is correct to assume everyone carefully considers the positions of each of the options and then basis their vote on that analysis.  Quite the opposite, if the polling numbers are accurate.

#14

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Valmy - Today at 01:30:18 PM

I have thought that a centrally planned economy might work with sophisticated enough data and computer resources.

We'll see if China successfully models it for us 

It's an interesting thought experiment, that might work if (and it's a big if) self interest of the decision makers is removed. What we are seeing in China are decisions being made for a reason other than optimal well being of the population.  It's a bit like the when say communism failed in the Soviet Union and the reply being that Communism was never tried in the Soviet Union.  But the question remains, could it ever really be implemented, or would self interest of those in charge always become the imperative.


I tend to think it is the latter, and for all its warts, Liberal Democracy may be the best model.

Well central planning has almost certainly been tried. Seems to me a regulated market economy works with the least disastrous results.

Liberal Democracy is not an economic model But if it is I would say straight up liberalism has a long history of disastrous economic meltdowns.

#15

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 01:29:04 PM

Probably through trial and error.

But what to try and how do you recognize error?
Hayek was wrong about almost everything but not about the knowledge problem. We don't even know what it is we need to know.

#16

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 01:27:29 PM

I have thought that a centrally planned economy might work with sophisticated enough data and computer resources.

We'll see if China successfully models it for us 

It's an interesting thought experiment, that might work if (and it's a big if) self interest of the decision makers is removed. What we are seeing in China are decisions being made for a reason other than optimal well being of the population.  It's a bit like the when people say communism failed in the Soviet Union and the reply being that Communism was never tried in the Soviet Union.  But the question remains, could it ever really be implemented, or would self interest of those in charge always become the imperative.


I tend to think it is the latter, and for all its warts, Liberal Democracy may be the best model.

#17

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Valmy - Today at 01:27:15 PM

I have thought that a centrally planned economy might work with sophisticated enough data and computer resources.

That's a very old debate.  Oskar Lange was arguing its possibility in the 1930s.

The problem is that even if you had the computing power needed and a workable model, how do you know and how can you get all the necessary information to input into the model?

Probably through trial and error.

Hopefully tens of millions don't die of starvation during the growing pains.

#18

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 01:26:11 PM

I have thought that a centrally planned economy might work with sophisticated enough data and computer resources.

That's a very old debate.  Oskar Lange was arguing its possibility in the 1930s.

The problem is that even if you had the computing power needed and a workable model, how do you know and how can you get all the necessary information to input into the model?

#19

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 01:21:27 PM

My prediction is that all of this is moot, as the moron in the kremlin thinks he's winning.

Yeah I think that's pretty plausible too.

For sure.  I think the Kremlin is mostly hoping that Ukraine bungles their surrender enough to get US aid/intel pulled, ahead of an actual signed deal, so they can push their offensive with more success.

#20

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by Valmy - Today at 01:17:17 PM

It mainly matters if you plan on annexing them.