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#11

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Richard Hakluyt - Today at 02:17:32 PM

Apart from any moral qualms there are utilitarian reasons why bombing a girls' primary school and sinking the ship may have additional bad consequences. The USA is claiming to be fighting the current Iranian regime, it is a very obnoxious regime so many are loth to criticise, but the more civilian/non-regime assets that are destroyed the more it becomes a war against Iran the country rather than the regime. Right now a large proportion of Iran's population support the attacks by the USA....but how long will that last?

#12

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Legbiter - Today at 02:15:40 PM

After a week of this we'll be in a global crisis that will make the 1973 Arab oil embargo look like a picnic.

#13

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Jacob - Today at 02:11:47 PM

Destabilizing the regime to the point it isn't a threat externally, but gets left with internal strife indefinitely

I see. That's a relatively clear definition, thank you.

I don't think it's going to be easy to achieve, whether through bombing alone or through a wider military campaign.

#14

Off the Record / Re: Grand unified books thread

Last post by Jacob - Today at 02:09:45 PM

So I'm slowly working my way through this, and it's pretty heavy going as it's at about my limit for academic writing - but it is super fascinating.

Skre clearly has a bunch to say in a number of scholarly controversies in his and related fields and I've enjoyed his contributions. All the "some people make this argument, which is deep and profound and contributes a bunch of stuff, but doesn't seem to address A, B, and C which this author finds surprising" and so on. Nothing like a good snarky academic shit-fight

The topic of the book is essentially the social changes amongst Scandinavians in the period 180 - 550 CE. The sources are not massively abundant. So Skre takes a very thorough interdisciplinary approach - the opening chapters about methodology cover a wide range of disciplines relating to human society, motivations, how hierarchies and heterarchies function, how power is accrued and exercised, the nature of heroism in specific cultures and whether there's a more universal quality, and so on. It's all applied to the topic at hand - the societies of pre-viking-age Scandinavia, but I found the approach and analysis illuminating and an interesting lens to apply to current events. Very stimulating.

I'm about 100 pages in and it's getting a little more focused - Skre is discussing Beowulf as a potential source of insight into Scandinavian society in the period. Therefore, the question of the origin of the poem is very relevant. Was Beowulf authored by a talented Anglo-Saxon creative, using Scandinavia as a setting (a view initially articulated by our homie J.R.R. Tolkien and still a mainstream position among Beowulf scholars) or did it actually originate in Scandinavia in the period (and therefore provides more useful insight into the social structures of the time)?

As I said, the Englishness of Beowulf is a mainstream position, especially among Beowulf scholars (relying primarily on literary analysis). However, applying a multidisciplinary approach, Skre makes a strong case (IMO, but I'm typically persuaded by the book at hand in these types of situations ) that it's Scandinavian in origin. He touches on linguistics and other evidence, but particularly persuasive IMO is the degree to which the scenes in Beowulf match the contemporary Scandinavian material culture as attested by archaeology, in ways that did not exist in England in the relevant period (though in cases it appeared in later periods).

#15

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Syt - Today at 02:07:54 PM

The girls' school being destroyed is an absolute tragedy: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/iran-school-bombing-investigation-9.7114994

I'm going to withhold judgement, but my expectations are that no one will be held responsible and not much will change as a result of it.

"America is winning decisively, devastatingly and without mercy." - Pete Hegseth

#16

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Bauer - Today at 01:47:02 PM

If they are successful in bombing Iran to oblivion, then the quagmire may be outsourced to Turkey and Europe with a new destabilized country and refugee crisis.

Iran has a little over 90 million people.

What does "bombing into oblivion" mean in this context?

Destabilizing the regime to the point it isn't a threat externally, but gets left with internal strife indefinitely.

#17

Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 01:43:39 PM

You're realising that just now? 

No, but I'm hoping DGuller decides it's relevant to his analysis at some point.

#18

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by OttoVonBismarck - Today at 01:35:23 PM

Well, in terms of holding people responsible--the girl's school is clearly inside an area where it shares walls with an IRGC compound. The reporting I have heard is that it used to actually be part of the compound, but was turned into the school some years ago, and then a wall was added separating the school from the rest of the compound.

That means it was either struck due to bad targeting (intel failure / mistake) or bad execution. Neither of which rise to anything we'd call a "crime", in the nebulous world of war crimes and the Geneva Convention.

Such things are basically intrinsic to war, and unlike in civilian law where "negligence" can sometimes be criminal, in war crimes a targeted munition simply missing and hitting the wrong target isn't really that level of mistake. My understanding is the only scenario where an unintended civilian death is criminal in the various war crime treaties is if certain prohibited weapons are being used in an indiscriminate way--but unsurprisingly I think the U.S. and Israel never signed some of those conventions so I'm not even sure it applies to them (plus I don't think it would apply to a targeted munition either missing its target or firing based on mistaken intel.)

The fact that such things happen is why prudent leaders don't start wars without a very good reason.

Something that I think may rise to being criminal are reports that after we sunk Iran's ship that was leaving India, we made no effort to save the surviving sailors. My understanding is we are signatory to the 1949 convention that requires us to at least attempt to render aid in such circumstances (and while I think there are some exceptions, I don't believe any apply to that situation.)

It's also IMO just a disreputable action and brings shame to the U.S. Navy. While the convention in question is, I believe, from 1949, we actually usually made "reasonable efforts" to recover sailors of both German and Japanese ships during WWII--and that was a much more brutal, existential war where particularly the Japanese were regularly imposing significant losses on our Navy. I think it says a lot that even in those circumstances we generally made some effort (I'm sure not 100% of the time), to rescue Japanese sailors, and makes it seem even worse we didn't do so here--in the Indian Ocean where we knew we weren't in any danger if we stopped to try to participate in search and rescue.

#19

Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...

Last post by Norgy - Today at 01:34:33 PM

You're realising that just now? 

#20

Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 01:32:39 PM

GOP is smart enough to have contempt for people that either can't vote, don't exist in large numbers, or are not reachable.

Similarly, they are very good at making their voting base feel the target of contempt, whether it exists or not. And they are also very very good at using contempt of others as a unifying force for their voters.

The enemies of the modern GOP are both "full of contempt and utterly contemptible to them at the same time." Conveniently.