Recent posts

#11

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 10:32:43 AM

• Google launched their new Gemini iteration and appears to have overtaken or at least caught up to GPT-5.  Open AI insiders leaked a memo from Altman declaring a "code red".  Of course, there is nothing unexpected about this development; Google was the pioneer of these industrial scale LLMs (from their 2017 paper) and was only beat to market because they wouldn't release a half-baked product. 

I think the explanation for Google being beat to market is off the mark.  In history plenty of companies failed to capitalize on their own inventions, or even appreciate their potential, for reasons other than their focus on quality.  I think the far more likely explanation is that Google, being a mature large public company, is just naturally far less nimble than a motivated privately-held startup.  Companies like that have way too many stakeholder alignment meetings, risk committee working groups, and quarterly earning targets, to move fast, at least until external factors make them move fast.

It has nothing to do with nimbleness. When GPT was first released, the developers were very clear that it was still in development. But despite that warning people treated it las if it was a reliable tool with all of the catastrophic consequences that have been widely reported.

GPT is still in development and yet people still take it seriously as if it is a reliable tool.

Google's product may be reliable, or it may have the same defects of all LLMs.  We shall see.

#12

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Crazy_Ivan80 - Today at 10:30:49 AM

Russia will stay solvent as long as China desires

#13

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by HisMajestyBOB - Today at 10:25:49 AM

I would like to get a new computer next year, please don't drive up the cost of components.

#14

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 10:23:50 AM

Plus ça change

Wake me up around 1.12 . . .

#15

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 10:18:52 AM

DG I think we are saying the same thing in different ways, with you putting greater emphasis on the downsides of big enterprises (bureaucracy) and me putting greater emphasis on the downsides of startups (willingness to shove out and hype a half-baked beta and fix later on the fly)

But I would add - Google probably thought they were dealing with something else.  OpenAI was supposed to be a non-profit, defined by a precautionary ethos, NOT a commercially "motivated" start-up.  That turned out to be a mirage, one that even much of OpenAI's own board was unaware of.

#16

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by DGuller - Today at 10:09:11 AM

• Google launched their new Gemini iteration and appears to have overtaken or at least caught up to GPT-5.  Open AI insiders leaked a memo from Altman declaring a "code red".  Of course, there is nothing unexpected about this development; Google was the pioneer of these industrial scale LLMs (from their 2017 paper) and was only beat to market because they wouldn't release a half-baked product. 

I think the explanation for Google being beat to market is off the mark.  In history plenty of companies failed to capitalize on their own inventions, or even appreciate their potential, for reasons other than their focus on quality.  I think the far more likely explanation is that Google, being a mature large public company, is just naturally far less nimble than a motivated privately-held startup.  Companies like that have way too many stakeholder alignment meetings, risk committee working groups, and quarterly earning targets, to move fast, at least until external factors make them move fast.

#17

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by Josephus - Today at 10:07:02 AM

Jos, with Castile, at the start of the game, delete a bunch of the unneeded fortifications.

That frees up a lot of budget room.

Thanks

I also keep forgetting about the wonderful "Ask for money" diplomatic function.

#18

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by Syt - Today at 09:59:39 AM

I'm so glad I bought a new PC with RAM a few months ago. 

#19

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 09:49:50 AM

On the topic:

• Open AI signed huge procurement deals with both Samsung and SK Hynix, the duopoly that effectively dominates DRAM supply.  It was reported that the deals account for 40% of global supply.
• DRAM prices have exploded as everyone else scrambles to grab supply.  There are immediate knock on effects for retail consumers as anything that uses RAM is going to go way up in price once stockpiles are exhausted.  I don't think we can expect a significant supply response, because "Samnix" has to be concerned what would happen if Open AI implodes (see below) and dumps their massive stockpile back onto the market.
• Within the industry, there are increasing questions being raised about LLM scalability and whether the existing strategy of dumping more and more computing power and data is hitting diminishing returns.  That is: the incremental cost of improving the models is rising fast due to supply constraints, but the returns to model effectiveness may be diminishing.
• Google launched their new Gemini iteration and appears to have overtaken or at least caught up to GPT-5.  Open AI insiders leaked a memo from Altman declaring a "code red".  Of course, there is nothing unexpected about this development; Google was the pioneer of these industrial scale LLMs (from their 2017 paper) and was only beat to market because they wouldn't release a half-baked product. 
• Google generates massive profits off of its core business; it can afford take a bath on LLMs. OpenAI has no business other than raising VC capital from supercharged hype and grabbing a few shekels here and there by vending the more advanced iteration of GPT-5. The true state of OpenAI finances is unknown because they are private but it is clear that operating losses are large and capital costs are staggering, on a country level scale.

Two immediate conclusions:

1) The AI investment boom has reached the phase where it is causing significant distortions in the real economy, with likely adverse impact on consumers and the broader tech industry well into 2026.

2) The probability of a nasty crash over the next 6-12 month window is rising.

#20

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Baron von Schtinkenbutt - Today at 09:37:13 AM

The Russian economy's cracking continues apace as they start selling off their gold reserves en masse.
People dismiss this stuff as it has been talked about for years now. But seems pretty clear Russia absolutely is hurting and the name of the game is Ukraine trading land for time to make Russia implode.

I think the spirit of "[t]he market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" applies to war economies like Russia's as well.  It is fundamentally unhealthy, but trying to time its collapse is a fool's errand.  I think this point is missed in the "Russia'a economy will collapse any day now" versus "Russia can keep this up forever" debate.