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#11
Off the Record / Re: The China Thread
Last post by Jacob - Today at 05:30:27 PMI think the reality is that the overcapacity and misallocation of capital is being done for very real and "very good" reasons, only those reasons are political in the broad sense and not economical.
A human (or group of humans) could probably make the decision to address the overcapacity and misallocation of capital just as well as an AI at this stage. The problem is not identifying the issue, nor (I expect) identifying measures to address it - it's that effective measures effect a whole bunch of consequences that the CCP does not want to deal with. That doesn't change whether it's AI or humans who make the decisions, or because AI information collection on the populace gives greater details on the consequences.
A human (or group of humans) could probably make the decision to address the overcapacity and misallocation of capital just as well as an AI at this stage. The problem is not identifying the issue, nor (I expect) identifying measures to address it - it's that effective measures effect a whole bunch of consequences that the CCP does not want to deal with. That doesn't change whether it's AI or humans who make the decisions, or because AI information collection on the populace gives greater details on the consequences.
#12
Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...
Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 05:18:28 PMQuote from: Josephus on Today at 05:11:28 PMMaybe if I complain to Johan, he'll make my game better in the next patch?
#13
Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...
Last post by Josephus - Today at 05:11:28 PMSo in my first game, Kingdom of Naples (Now Two Sicilies), I've reached 1640 and the Age of Absolutism, and, well, things are not going well. A series of bad shit, has led to rebellions, low stability and ongoing debt. No end in sight. Maybe if I complain to Johan, he'll make my game better in the next patch?
But I guess my first run is over, and I'll wait for the new patch to start a new game.
My main takeaway after 3 weeks is it is fun. I've always liked the EU series, even if I won't ever really learn to play it well.
And a later start date would be so nice.
As an aside, I don't think Spain (really Castille and Aragon) have colonized anything. England is setting up its
colonies, but the rest seem to be a hodgepodge of European colonizers including Milan and...Bohemia.
And, oh yeah, no Spain, no Russia, no Great Britain; and Tunis seems to be the bad boy of the Med.
But I guess my first run is over, and I'll wait for the new patch to start a new game.
My main takeaway after 3 weeks is it is fun. I've always liked the EU series, even if I won't ever really learn to play it well.
And a later start date would be so nice.
As an aside, I don't think Spain (really Castille and Aragon) have colonized anything. England is setting up its
colonies, but the rest seem to be a hodgepodge of European colonizers including Milan and...Bohemia.
And, oh yeah, no Spain, no Russia, no Great Britain; and Tunis seems to be the bad boy of the Med.
#14
Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic
Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 04:52:09 PMI don't know if this has been the case elsewhere but some change in Twitter basically means you can see the very broad general location of that account's tweets.
And all day I've seen lots of far-right content creators ("Yookay aesthetics" etc) verified accounts earning money for the engagement on their content that appear to be based in India or South America
I suspected something like this with some accounts I've seen that just had very Indian English grammar but still quite funny to see as a lot of those accounts now seem to be shutting down or pivoting to other content.
Reminded me a bit of the very interesting sounding book about the scam economy in South-East Asia:
https://www.versobooks.com/en-gb/products/3234-scam?srsltid=AfmBOoqTW63r0hQou6CiwSwyQIre14yUDY35XpvPheA-xhrozs_6Er82
Can't help but feel we're only at the start of seeing developing countries where the quality of internet connection has massively improved in recent years working out how to monetise that (and countries in the Global North).
And all day I've seen lots of far-right content creators ("Yookay aesthetics" etc) verified accounts earning money for the engagement on their content that appear to be based in India or South America
I suspected something like this with some accounts I've seen that just had very Indian English grammar but still quite funny to see as a lot of those accounts now seem to be shutting down or pivoting to other content.Reminded me a bit of the very interesting sounding book about the scam economy in South-East Asia:
https://www.versobooks.com/en-gb/products/3234-scam?srsltid=AfmBOoqTW63r0hQou6CiwSwyQIre14yUDY35XpvPheA-xhrozs_6Er82
Can't help but feel we're only at the start of seeing developing countries where the quality of internet connection has massively improved in recent years working out how to monetise that (and countries in the Global North).
#15
Off the Record / Re: The China Thread
Last post by Zanza - Today at 04:46:44 PMAt the moment, central planning in China must be assumed to neither have perfect information nor ideal planning premises.
Information being imperfect is almost certain as a lot of reported figures are suspect and there are strong incentives for local governments of all levels to deliberately report wrong figures.
The planning premises are also not ideal as despite strong regulation, the overcapacity and misallocation of capital is obvious. It's clearly not realizing the maximum potential value creation as it follows other policy goals.
As long as there are still humans in the loop, both issues will persist. I doubt that an authoritarian state (or any human society) will give up on the human in the loop.
Information being imperfect is almost certain as a lot of reported figures are suspect and there are strong incentives for local governments of all levels to deliberately report wrong figures.
The planning premises are also not ideal as despite strong regulation, the overcapacity and misallocation of capital is obvious. It's clearly not realizing the maximum potential value creation as it follows other policy goals.
As long as there are still humans in the loop, both issues will persist. I doubt that an authoritarian state (or any human society) will give up on the human in the loop.
#16
Off the Record / Re: The China Thread
Last post by Josquius - Today at 04:37:36 PMTruly effective AI that actually create for a perfect centrally planned world that is good for everyone are some way off....
... But then we are talking about China. Would they really care if they get a few things critically wrong, starve a few villages, poison some kids.... They'll see this as a price worth paying with pretty in reach data crunching tech.
... But then we are talking about China. Would they really care if they get a few things critically wrong, starve a few villages, poison some kids.... They'll see this as a price worth paying with pretty in reach data crunching tech.
#17
Off the Record / Re: The China Thread
Last post by Jacob - Today at 04:16:45 PMQuote from: DGuller on Today at 02:22:24 PMI'm not sure that good planned economy can beat out shitty liberal economy, even with excellent leadership. Part of the reason is that the scale of what needs managing is just too much, and would require many more levels of delegation than humans have learned to manage. Another reason is that keeping the system competent and free of corruption for long is very hard.
I think it gets more uncertain when you add a hybrid category, something that has both a Five Year Plan and NEP. That may have more of a chance at beating the shittiest of liberal economies.
Yeah that's a fair point.
My thinking is that competent central planning leadership allows for a certain amount of decentralized decision making, while still retaining the central authority and direction setting. Conversely, poor liberal economic leadership leads to industrial and economic policy (and personality driven decision making) that undermines the benefits of liberal economic order in practice.
... but what that boils down to, I suppose, is the degree to which competent/incompetent leadership models one system while ostensibly being another type of system. So it really just becomes a true Scotsman type thing - "is it really centrally planned when..." or "there's not much liberal economic order left when the policies are actually...".
#18
Off the Record / Re: The EU thread
Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 04:11:27 PMIs minitel still in operation?
#19
Off the Record / Re: The China Thread
Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 04:05:54 PMQuote from: DGuller on Today at 01:58:56 PMI think in the age of AI China would eventually have better information about your wants than you do.
Judging by today's spam it thinks I want:
- A 3 bottle lot of DRC Richebourg 1991 for 80,000 Hong Kong dollars - I do actually want this, but no chance of affording it, even if I had any Hong Kong dollars
- A Pyrex container set - no interest
- Christmas lollypops - I'm Jewish and I don't eat lollypops
- A GLP-1 prescription - granted I'm not in peak shape, but again not in the market
- Canvas Photo prints - no interest
#20
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 03:55:30 PMQuote from: grumbler on Today at 03:06:04 PMA Federal judge has dismissed the charges against Comey and James on the grounds that Hallian was illegally appointed.
That's the kindest way to dispose of those cases.