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#11
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by Zoupa - November 18, 2025, 10:56:26 PMQuote from: Razgovory on November 18, 2025, 10:12:08 PMOh see, I was heavily criticized for thinking he had strong ties to France.
You were?
I have both passports.
#12
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by Razgovory - November 18, 2025, 10:12:08 PMOh see, I was heavily criticized for thinking he had strong ties to France.
#13
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by Grey Fox - November 18, 2025, 09:54:25 PMHe is now, wasn't always.
#14
Off the Record / Re: The China Thread
Last post by Sheilbh - November 18, 2025, 09:48:39 PMInteresting via WSJ reporter - Goldman Sachs have upgraded long-term GDP of China because of increased exports. But their analysis suggests this will reduce, not increase, the rest of the world's GDP because the displacement of manufacturing will outweigh positives from cheaper goods:
There may be global growth in a purely arithmetic sense of Chinese and Indian growth being larger than the hit to the rest of the world's but it's certainly not going to create positive feedback loops improving other countries' growths (at least in the short-term).
And this is the strategy from China. Xi's pursued a policy of "dual circulation" to increase global dependeency on Chinese industry, while increasing Chinese self-sufficiency.
As I was saying in the Brexit I think part of the reason we are moving to increasingly zero-sum politics is that we are living in an increasingly zero-sum world and this seems like a very strong example of this and also fundamentally different from the assumptions of 1990s style globalising free trade - I think similarly to Tamas' thread on the politics of the late 90s etc just being dead, this is a big part of why. The alternatives are probably accept de-industialisation, dependency and disinflationary pressures - or try to fight it, which is likely to be inflationary and require fiscal support (in a very constrained post-covid fiscal environment).
(Again the choice, especially in Europe, to piss away a decade of low inflation and low rates on harsh austerity measures and internal devaluation as opposed to building domestic demand and spending on capital projects was an absolute catastrophe.)
There may be global growth in a purely arithmetic sense of Chinese and Indian growth being larger than the hit to the rest of the world's but it's certainly not going to create positive feedback loops improving other countries' growths (at least in the short-term).
And this is the strategy from China. Xi's pursued a policy of "dual circulation" to increase global dependeency on Chinese industry, while increasing Chinese self-sufficiency.
As I was saying in the Brexit I think part of the reason we are moving to increasingly zero-sum politics is that we are living in an increasingly zero-sum world and this seems like a very strong example of this and also fundamentally different from the assumptions of 1990s style globalising free trade - I think similarly to Tamas' thread on the politics of the late 90s etc just being dead, this is a big part of why. The alternatives are probably accept de-industialisation, dependency and disinflationary pressures - or try to fight it, which is likely to be inflationary and require fiscal support (in a very constrained post-covid fiscal environment).
(Again the choice, especially in Europe, to piss away a decade of low inflation and low rates on harsh austerity measures and internal devaluation as opposed to building domestic demand and spending on capital projects was an absolute catastrophe.)
#15
Off the Record / Re: The EU thread
Last post by Sheilbh - November 18, 2025, 09:38:11 PMI think European strategic autonomy is important and worth building. I also don't think it's meaningfully here now, especially in relation to security.
And I suspect it'll take things like France and Germany being able to build a plane together to convince me that it is moving from several million think tank papers and conferences to the realms of the real. Sadly it sounds like we're not quite there yet - and this is why just aggregating Europe's defence spending or economy v Russia isn't really a meaningful comparison:
And I suspect it'll take things like France and Germany being able to build a plane together to convince me that it is moving from several million think tank papers and conferences to the realms of the real. Sadly it sounds like we're not quite there yet - and this is why just aggregating Europe's defence spending or economy v Russia isn't really a meaningful comparison:
QuoteIs Europe's mega defence project FCAS in danger of failing over Germany-France disagreements?
By Johanna Urbancik
Published on 17/11/2025 - 17:29 GMT+1 •Updated 17:49
The project launched in 2017 and with a price tag of at least €100 billion, aims to strengthen European defence and will include new fighter aircraft supported by interconnected drones.
The Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a joint defence project between Germany, France and Spain, is expected to be on the agenda as Germany's Defence Minister Boris Pistorius visits Paris for talks with his French counterpart, Catherine Vautrin.
FCAS aims to redefine "air combat of the future" and at the same time maintain independence from non-European partners.
The idea, launched in 2017 and costing at least €100 billion, aims to strengthen European defence and will include a sixth-generation fighter aircraft supported by interconnected drones within a combat cloud.
But uncertainty is hanging over the project over ownsership disputes.
In September, Reuters reported that the German Defence Ministry had accused French fighter jet manufacturer Dassault of blocking the project after its CEO, Eric Trappier, called for greater decision making powers in the project's next phase.
Jacob Ross, a researcher at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), told Euronews that despite Dassault's wishes, other parts of the project are inextricably linked to Germany's Airbus and Spain's Indra, the two other companies involved in the process.
France-Germany friendship at risk?
The Next Generation Weapon System (NGWS) is likely to be front and centre of talks between to the two defence ministers.
It's a fighter jet, which can be manned or unmanned, and is supported by drones, called remote carriers.
All elements will be networked via a digital Air Combat Cloud, which enables the rapid exchange of sensor data and the creation of joint situation reports.
FCAS should make future military operations more effective and resilient thanks to its high stealth properties. This means that the combat aircraft will be difficult to detect by radar, infrared, acoustic or visual sensors. In addition, the system should be capable of electronic warfare and be able to deploy precise, long-range weapons.
Overall, it is a networked "system of systems" that goes beyond the capabilities of today's fighter jets such as the Eurofighter and the Rafale and is intended to secure long-term European air sovereignty.
The development costs of the project have been estimated at between €80-100 billion.
However, the project is currently at a standstill due to disputes between the defence companies involved, Dassault (France) and Airbus (Germany/Spain), over suppliers, design and division of labour.
Dassault is insisting on the leading role in the fighter jet, while Germany is considering alternative partners or a national approach.
France has proposed redesigning the division of labour model to give Dassault a stronger "industrial leadership role." However, the second phase of FCAS, in which a test aircraft was to be created, has not yet started due to delays, although the official plans envisage a test as early as 2027.
But a decision may not be made by Pistorius and Vautrin in Paris. According to reports, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron will discuss the FCAS project in Berlin on Tuesday.
A final solution is expected to be found by the end of the year. Nevertheless, both countries are apparently considering ending or reorganising the joint multi-billion euro fighter jet project and want to focus on the "Combat Cloud" instead.
The "Combat Cloud" is already part of FCAS and is intended to network future aircraft, drones and command centres.
Spain, on the other hand, continues to be committed to FCAS and is investing in the technology.
A national solution?
Berlin already has a successor to FCAS, namely the Combat Fighter System Nucleus (CFSN).
Here, too, the focus is on building a "Combat Cloud" and developing a series of unmanned European combat aircraft. The "Combat Cloud" connects all aircraft and drones and ensures that they can work together and with NATO systems.
In the second phase, two drones are to be produced. A four to five-tonne drone for reconnaissance and electronic warfare and a 10-tonne version for air-to-ground and air-to-air missions. The first prototypes will be used for training in 2029 with operational deployment expected later.
It is then planned to integrate existing combat aircraft such as the Eurofighter Typhoon and the F-35A stealth aircraft into the Combat Cloud. The final phase envisages the development of a new combat aircraft, ideally in co-operation with Spain or Sweden.
Paris, on the other hand, is planning to develop a next-generation modern fighter jet based on the Rafale F5.
Dassault Aviation is developing the F5 into a new aircraft, but with improved radar, a new engine and the ability to work with drones.
In France, this is seen as a cost-efficient evolution that also preserves the country's industrial sovereignty and foreign partners are largely excluded from the project.
#16
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by Razgovory - November 18, 2025, 08:41:01 PMI thought Zoupa was Canadian.
#17
Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread
Last post by Razgovory - November 18, 2025, 08:38:25 PMI was worried about this AI thing, but I am comforted by the knowlege that the companies that designed it are run by men with sober-minded ideas such as "create God and ask him for immortality.".
#18
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by Sheilbh - November 18, 2025, 08:36:40 PMQuote from: Jacob on November 18, 2025, 06:38:51 PMYeah... I believe conscription is probably a positive social force (barring massively abusive systems like what the Russians apparently have), though I feel a bit hypocritical saying so since I wasn't conscripted myself.Same - also in the UK the forces are really struggling to recruit and I actually think national service could help with that too.
#19
Gaming HQ / Re: Total War: Warhammer is co...
Last post by Jacob - November 18, 2025, 06:40:40 PMI have to say that I always wanted to really like the TW games, but I always found the controls in battle frustrating.
#20
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by Jacob - November 18, 2025, 06:38:51 PMYeah... I believe conscription is probably a positive social force (barring massively abusive systems like what the Russians apparently have), though I feel a bit hypocritical saying so since I wasn't conscripted myself.