Poll
Question:
Afghanistan Or Syria, Which 'Proxy' Falls First ?
Option 1: Karzai's Afghanistan Falls First
votes: 4
Option 2: al-Assad's Syria Falls First
votes: 13
Option 3: At About The Same Time
votes: 0
Option 4: Neither Falls, Both Carry On For A Good Few More Years
votes: 2
Option 5: Don't Know.
votes: 1
In some ways you could view these two regimes as proxies for the 'East' and the 'West', Russia and Iran still back Syria and the West backs Karzai in Kabul.
OK the conflicts are different, Afghanistan's conflict having simmered slowly for years now, whereas Syria's has continued to escalated over the last two years. But I think the Karzai kleptocracy doesn't have anywhere near the stomach for a fight that the al-Assad's do, so it's a more evened out comparison.
So my question is which fails or falls first ?
One metric might be to consider the fall of the capital, be it Kabul or Damascus, to be the convenient end of the regime.
Does Aghanistan "fall" if Karzai loses an election and steps down?
Afghanistan will die a long, slow and expensive death, reverting back to 1990's form in due time.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 29, 2013, 06:40:08 PM
Does Aghanistan "fall" if Karzai loses an election and steps down?
No that's the long run, remember we'll all be dead then. :P
Seriously, no, it's the system's fall that counts, though I'd argue it's his or at least was partial built for and around him.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 29, 2013, 06:41:49 PM
Afghanistan will die a long, slow and expensive death, reverting back to 1990's form in due time.
I expect it will be a rerun of the post-Soviet days: Taliban controls the Pashtun areas, Karzai hangs on in the capital.
I won't shed a tear when Karzai gets a bullet to the back of the head.
Dostum 2016.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 29, 2013, 07:29:28 PM
Dostum 2016.
:lol:
That guy really is the ultimate survivor, isn't he still around ?
Oh, hell yeah. He's the ultimate Afghani to do business with, too. No bullshit with him. He calls 'em like he sees 'em, and then kills 'em.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 29, 2013, 07:39:19 PM
Oh, hell yeah. He's the ultimate Afghani to do business with, too. No bullshit with him. He calls 'em like he sees 'em, and then kills 'em.
The John Wayne of Afghanistan. :D
Read the somewhat confusing wiki about him, seems he still has a few more miles/massacres/change of sides left in him.
For Afghanistan to fall, it has to get up first.
Trust me, you go always go down.
Why you dissing the yugo?
Quote from: katmai on April 29, 2013, 09:58:21 PM
Why you dissing the yugo?
Because the Yugo deserves it? :unsure:
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 29, 2013, 07:20:52 PM
I won't shed a tear when Karzai gets a bullet to the back of the head.
Yeah, but that will probably have to happen in a Swiss chalet or something. He's a piece of shit, but he has enough sense to get the hell out before the walls close in on him.
Quote from: derspiess on April 29, 2013, 10:49:57 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 29, 2013, 07:20:52 PM
I won't shed a tear when Karzai gets a bullet to the back of the head.
Yeah, but that will probably have to happen in a Swiss chalet or something. He's a piece of shit, but he has enough sense to get the hell out before the walls close in on him.
And he'll be blaming the US the entire time from the ski slopes.
I voted Assad/Syria because it has a strong rebellion which has been gaining ground fast. Plus Assad has a lot of the international community against him, some giving aid to the rebels. Karzai/Afghanistan is more likely to fall when the US/Allies pull out, which is in a year or two, especially if no troops are left in the country. It will take a while but would seem to be likely if the West pullout leaves Afghanistan with little support, since I doubt the Afghans will have the stomach to fight it out for very long.