Poll
Question:
What will be the winning margin in the 2012 US Presidential election.
Option 1: 531+ 1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt
votes: 3
Option 2: 486+ 1964 Lyndon B. Johnson
votes: 0
Option 3: 472+ 1932 Franklin D. Roosevelt
votes: 0
Option 4: 449+ 1940 Franklin D. Roosevelt
votes: 0
Option 5: 432+ 1944 Franklin D. Roosevelt
votes: 0
Option 6: 379+ 1996 Bill Clinton
votes: 1
Option 7: 370+ 1992 Bill Clinton
votes: 1
Option 8: 365+ 2008 Barack Obama
votes: 3
Option 9: 303+ 1948 Harry S. Truman
votes: 6
Option 10: 303+ 1960 John F. Kennedy
votes: 6
Option 11: 297+ 1976 Jimmy Carter
votes: 2
Option 12: 269 - 269 a Draw - not seen since early days of republic.
votes: 0
Option 13: 271+ 2000 George W. Bush
votes: 0
Option 14: 286+ 2004 George W. Bush
votes: 2
Option 15: 301+ 1968 Richard Nixon
votes: 2
Option 16: 382+ 1924 Calvin Coolidge
votes: 1
Option 17: 404+ 1920 Warren G. Harding
votes: 0
Option 18: 426+ 1988 George H. W. Bush
votes: 0
Option 19: 442+ 1952 Dwight D. Eisenhower
votes: 0
Option 20: 444+ 1928 Herbert Hoover
votes: 0
Option 21: 457+ 1956 Dwight D. Eisenhower
votes: 0
Option 22: 489+ 1980 Ronald Reagan
votes: 0
Option 23: 520+ 1972 Richard Nixon
votes: 0
Option 24: 525+ 1984 Ronald Reagan
votes: 1
Option 25: Other A court decides.
votes: 0
Option 26: Other Mayan doomsday comes early.
votes: 2
5 weeks today till American finally get to vote, so about time people here staked their bet on the outcome.
I'm using the electoral college numbers as those are the only ones that count* so what is your prediction.
Maybe it would be more interesting to look at the numbers in terms of historical elections, so one can compare and contrast.
But by all means make a specific prediction like Obama to win by 20-30 electoral college majority. Which is my guess as, I think things will tighten in the run up to the vote.
For some reason I took my starting point as post WW1, and yes I know some of those elections didn't have exactly 538 electors, but the numbers are broadly similar.
And no I could be arsed work out the numbers and write say 479-485, you have to make do with a + to the number.
*certain rare exceptions, like 2008. :D
My prediction is that Obama will win with about 320.1 electoral votes. I didn't vote in the poll yet, I'm waiting for my buddy in NSA to decrypt it.
There's an error in the first option it should say 523+, whereas I typed the number of EC votes at the time 531. :blush:
At this point I think Obama with about 330-40.
Quote from: mongers on October 02, 2012, 03:54:58 PM
There's an error in the first option it should say 523+, whereas I typed the number of EC votes at the time 531. :blush:
Yeah, that fixed it right up.
Quote from: DGuller on October 02, 2012, 03:56:21 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 02, 2012, 03:54:58 PM
There's an error in the first option it should say 523+, whereas I typed the number of EC votes at the time 531. :blush:
Yeah, that fixed it right up.
:cool:
Quote from: DGuller on October 02, 2012, 03:52:39 PM
My prediction is that Obama will win with about 320.1 electoral votes.
I predict Obama's electoral vote total will be an integer.
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 02, 2012, 04:07:24 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 02, 2012, 03:52:39 PM
My prediction is that Obama will win with about 320.1 electoral votes.
I predict Obama's electoral vote total will be an integer.
Hmm, that's a pretty clever thought. If you assume an integer vote total, the number of possible results is reduced by a factor of infinity. :hmm:
Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada to Obama.
New Hampshire, North Carolina to Romney.
What else is in play? There's 8, right?
Obama with 303. Dems will narrowly hold the Senate 51-49 after the election and GOP will gain a couple seats to maintain solid control of the House.
In 2014 the GOP will win control of the Senate and maintain control of House.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 02, 2012, 04:19:45 PM
What else is in play? There's 8, right?
Romney's campaigning in PA. But the polls suggest it's not really in play.
I don't think Romney's got a chance in NH and I think Obama has a (slim) chance in NC.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 02, 2012, 04:19:45 PM
Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada to Obama.
New Hampshire, North Carolina to Romney.
What else is in play? There's 8, right?
Colorado, Virginia
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 02, 2012, 04:19:45 PM
Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada to Obama.
New Hampshire, North Carolina to Romney.
What else is in play? There's 8, right?
World peace ?
Quote from: Phillip V on October 02, 2012, 04:33:23 PM
Colorado, Virginia
Groovy.
Virginia to Obama, Colorado to...I don't know.
The BBC website has a useful interactive map for calling individual states and totally up the EC totals for your prediction.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19794259 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19794259)
I predict I won't make up my mind by November.
Quote from: mongers on October 02, 2012, 06:39:01 PM
The BBC website has a useful interactive map for calling individual states and totally up the EC totals for your prediction.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19794259 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19794259)
You Limeys mind yer own bidness :angry:
I predict someone who had parent not born in America will win.
Quote from: derspiess on October 02, 2012, 06:57:26 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 02, 2012, 06:39:01 PM
The BBC website has a useful interactive map for calling individual states and totally up the EC totals for your prediction.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19794259 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19794259)
You Limeys mind yer own bidness :angry:
I'm awaiting with baited breath the first article from a foreigner paper demanding they should get a vote in us elections and a seefor style pleading thread asking Americans to vote the way they want.
Quote from: katmai on October 02, 2012, 06:59:59 PM
I predict someone who had parent not born in America will win.
Funnily, only one of them had a polygamous father. :D
332 Obama - 206 Romney. The map will be the same as 2008 except that NC and IN will go GOP.
Obama wins by a Presidential Mandate!!
It's a done deal.
Two big markers this week before making a prediction:
Wednesday: first presidential debate
Friday: monthly jobs/unemployment numbers
Obama seems to be trying to set expectations really low for his debate performance. Not sure why, unless it's an attempt to lower the stakes.
Quote from: derspiess on October 02, 2012, 08:34:23 PM
Obama seems to be trying to set expectations really low for his debate performance. Not sure why, unless it's an attempt to lower the stakes.
Expectation management. All campaigns try to lower the bar by which they'll be judged - Romney's a striking and unusual exception - so that any performance can be called a victory, or at least not a defeat.
Expectations matter a lot. It's why Clinton was the comeback kid after coming second in New Hampshire, or why, say, Ed Miliband did quite well today.
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 02, 2012, 08:45:30 PM
Quote from: derspiess on October 02, 2012, 08:34:23 PM
Obama seems to be trying to set expectations really low for his debate performance. Not sure why, unless it's an attempt to lower the stakes.
Expectation management. All campaigns try to lower the bar by which they'll be judged - Romney's a striking and unusual exception - so that any performance can be called a victory, or at least not a defeat.
Expectations matter a lot. It's why Clinton was the comeback kid after coming second in New Hampshire, or why, say, Ed Miliband did quite well today.
Back in 2004 the Bush camp claimed that Kerry was the greatest debater since Cicero. :lol:
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 02, 2012, 08:45:30 PM
Expectation management. All campaigns try to lower the bar by which they'll be judged - Romney's a striking and unusual exception - so that any performance can be called a victory, or at least not a defeat.
Not all campaigns do it-- certainly not to the extent that Obama has in the past few days. And it's like much like him to be humble.
My prediction? President, CEO and Fruity Religion Bishop-in-Chief Mittens Romney by roughly 300.
I don't understand the poll. :(
Quote from: Razgovory on October 02, 2012, 09:40:40 PM
I don't understand the poll. :(
He confused "winning margin" with "total electoral votes".
Half the voters are picking Kennedy over Truman? WTF guys?
Quote from: derspiess on October 02, 2012, 10:07:01 PM
Yeah, I know Bush did it, both in 2000 and 2004. But I don't recall Gore or Kerry or Obama 2008 doing it.
Well Kerry did it in 2004. I don't know if Gore did in 2000, if so he did it badly. Obama did it in 2008 against Clinton and McCain, and, hilariously, ahead of the Biden-Palin debate too.
Here's Obama's campaign in 2008 (the first debate was on foreign policy):
Quote"John McCain has boasted throughout the campaign about his decades of Washington foreign policy experience and what an advantage that will be for him," Obama spokesman Nick Shapiro told ABCNews.com. "This debate offers him major home court advantage and anything short of a game-changing event will be a key missed opportunity for him."
Dammit, Shiv. You're fucking up the board. :mad:
Quote from: DGuller on October 02, 2012, 03:52:39 PM
My prediction is that Obama will win with about 320.1 electoral votes. I didn't vote in the poll yet, I'm waiting for my buddy in NSA to decrypt it.
that .10 vote is Nixon's head isn't it?
A baffling poll, have you been at the cider mongers?
I'm predicting a straightforward Obama win but not a landslide.
My elderly mother gave me the benefit of her views on the election a few days back........"that Mitt Romney seems to be a nasty piece of work", I reckon his campaign is doomed.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on October 03, 2012, 02:17:50 AM
My elderly mother gave me the benefit of her views on the election a few days back........"that Mitt Romney seems to be a nasty piece of work", I reckon his campaign is doomed.
Did your mum like Bush?
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 03, 2012, 02:20:03 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on October 03, 2012, 02:17:50 AM
My elderly mother gave me the benefit of her views on the election a few days back........"that Mitt Romney seems to be a nasty piece of work", I reckon his campaign is doomed.
Did your mum like Bush?
Yes, she thought he was funny and amusing. She didn't like his wars though.
I don't think mongers understands what a "margin" means.
What's the fucking difference between these two choices:
303+ 1948 Harry S. Truman
303+ 1960 John F. Kennedy
Whether you prefer Kennedy to defeat Truman, I guess.
Prediction: Obama by, like, a lot. NC is going blue again. Hell, maybe this is the year SC does too. YES WE CAN.
Obama wins safely. We laugh at those states who vote Republican anyway.
Quote from: Ideologue on October 03, 2012, 03:15:20 AMHell, maybe this is the year SC does too. YES WE CAN.
No you can't.
http://www.slate.com/articles/video/political_kombat/2012/10/political_kombat_president_obama_and_donald_trump_in_a_video_game_showdown_fight_.html