So, how will Iran react if their economy collapses?
:hmm:
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4204264,00.html
QuoteSteinitz: SWIFT sanctions may lead to Iran's economic collapse
Finance minister says disconnecting Tehran from world's biggest electronic payment system will 'weaken its resilience'
Yair Altman
Published: 03.18.12, 12:42
The decision by the world's biggest electronic payment system to cut off Iranian banks blacklisted by the European Union constitutes a "major blow to the Iranian economy," Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz said Sunday.
The move is aimed at discouraging Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
The minister said disconnecting Iran from SWIFT, which facilitates the bulk of global cross-border payments, will make it much more difficult for the Islamic Republic to export oil and import other products.
Being disconnected from SWIFT's messaging system would force Iran to accept only cash or gold, "and when we are dealing with billions this is impossible," said Steinitz.
Speaking before the weekly cabinet meeting, the finance minister said the move could lead to the collapse of Iran's economy. "Is it enough? I don't know. Will it significantly weaken their resilience? This is, undoubtedly, a dramatic step," he stated.
Minister Yuli Edelstein said the government was pleased with SWIFT's decision and was certain it would hurt Iran's economy. "I hope it will result in a decision by the Iranian regime to halt its nuclear program," he said.
The US also welcomed the move, saying it was part of the growing sanctions on Iran and its global isolation.
White House Spokesman Jay Carney said Thursday that SWIFT's decision "is part of the process of isolating Iran and making clear to the Iranian leadership that there is a price to pay for their intransigence, their refusal to abide by their international obligations, their refusal to adequately reassure the international community that its nuclear intentions are peaceful and non-weapon-related," he said.
Well, they have terrorists all over the world, apparently just waiting for the word to strike. So I'd think they could retaliate with attacks. But I figure they won't resort to that as it won't help their economy as they come under even tougher sanctions or military strikes in response. But my guess is that they will retaliate if Israel and/or others attack their nuke sites and I assume they have a sizeable capacity to do so.
It's a shame Jonathan Swift has been dead for over two centuries. We may have had a chance. :(
Quote from: KRonn on March 22, 2012, 08:49:59 PM
Well, they have terrorists all over the world, apparently just waiting for the word to strike.
:lol:
:tinfoil:
Time to avoid the local convenient stores.
Seriously though Iran is a bunch of incompetent morons. That is why they are in this position in the first place. Coordinating tons of freelancers ready to sacrifice themselves? Yeah right. They may give money and weapons to some groups but they do not have a network of fanatical super terrorists ready to die for their national interests.
Its not all good news.
I mean yey, the bad guys suffer and have their evil building efforts scuppered.
But....it will cause the Iranian middle class- quite westernised and modern folks who don't agree with the regime at all- to suffer, and could set back their progress a long way. So really messing with Iran's evolution towards being a decent non-crazy place.
Quote from: Tyr on March 22, 2012, 10:05:15 PM
But....it will hurt the Iranian middle class- quite westernised and modern folks who don't agree with the regime at all- to suffer, and could set back their progress a long way.
The Iranians are great folks and it sucks what has happened to them, even if it was largely self-inflicted. Even so I cannot help but feel that my Grandparents generation was somehow distantly responsible.
Quote from: Tyr on March 22, 2012, 10:05:15 PM
Its not all good news.
I mean yey, the bad guys suffer and have their evil building efforts scuppered.
But....it will cause the Iranian middle class- quite westernised and modern folks who don't agree with the regime at all- to suffer, and could set back their progress a long way. So really messing with Iran's evolution towards being a decent non-crazy place.
I wouldn't put any faith in the Silent Minority.
Good idea. Economic sanctions have toppled many a dictators, with no need of military intervention. Milosevics, Qadaffi, the North Koreans, Assad...
Louis XVI was done in by a bad economy. So was Mubarak.
Quote from: Tamas on March 23, 2012, 03:40:40 AM
Good idea. Economic sanctions have toppled many a dictators, with no need of military intervention. Milosevics, Qadaffi, the North Koreans, Assad...
I see what you did there.
What if they were SLOW sanctions, hmm? :hmm:
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on March 23, 2012, 03:47:55 AM
So was Mubarak.
That was clearly just a change of the figurehead. One general was replaced by another.
Well, if the replacement Ayatollah shitcanned the nuclear program that would be perfectly fine.
Yeah, I don't think the object of the sanctions would be to replace the regime but to cut off its funding for the nuclear programme. And that's not really comparable to the likes of North Korea, which is not as reliant on commodity exports as Iran is.
Quote from: Tyr on March 22, 2012, 10:05:15 PM
So really messing with Iran's evolution towards being a decent non-crazy place.
:lol:
Quote from: Tamas on March 23, 2012, 03:40:40 AM
Good idea. Economic sanctions have toppled many a dictators, with no need of military intervention. Milosevics, Qadaffi, the North Koreans, Assad...
Assad isn't gone yet, and in fact is winning.
Woosh.
Quote from: Tyr on March 22, 2012, 10:05:15 PM
Its not all good news.
I mean yey, the bad guys suffer and have their evil building efforts scuppered.
But....it will cause the Iranian middle class- quite westernised and modern folks who don't agree with the regime at all- to suffer, and could set back their progress a long way. So really messing with Iran's evolution towards being a decent non-crazy place.
Your belief in what the wishful thinkers tell you is adorably Tim-like.
Is it possible for Iran to trade through an intermediary to get around this? Also, I totally see an oil tanker with gold going to Iran and coming back with oil.
Quote from: Drakken on March 23, 2012, 07:10:36 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 23, 2012, 03:40:40 AM
Good idea. Economic sanctions have toppled many a dictators, with no need of military intervention. Milosevics, Qadaffi, the North Koreans, Assad...
Assad isn't gone yet, and in fact is winning.
YOU DON'T SAY
Drakken is trying to show how Swedish he can act.
Quote from: Valmy on March 22, 2012, 10:01:06 PM
Quote from: KRonn on March 22, 2012, 08:49:59 PM
Well, they have terrorists all over the world, apparently just waiting for the word to strike.
:lol:
:tinfoil:
Time to avoid the local convenient stores.
Seriously though Iran is a bunch of incompetent morons. That is why they are in this position in the first place. Coordinating tons of freelancers ready to sacrifice themselves? Yeah right. They may give money and weapons to some groups but they do not have a network of fanatical super terrorists ready to die for their national interests.
Are you seriously disputing this? Hezbollah, supported by Iran's Quds group, has been working with Mexican drug cartels, making money in the drug trades. And there are reports of Hezbollah operatives in the US. Some reports came out this week by US law enforcement and/or intel agencies.
Quote from: KRonn on March 23, 2012, 12:11:26 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 22, 2012, 10:01:06 PM
Quote from: KRonn on March 22, 2012, 08:49:59 PM
Well, they have terrorists all over the world, apparently just waiting for the word to strike.
:lol:
:tinfoil:
Time to avoid the local convenient stores.
Seriously though Iran is a bunch of incompetent morons. That is why they are in this position in the first place. Coordinating tons of freelancers ready to sacrifice themselves? Yeah right. They may give money and weapons to some groups but they do not have a network of fanatical super terrorists ready to die for their national interests.
Are you seriously disputing this? Hezbollah, supported by Iran's Quds group, has been working with Mexican drug cartels, making money in the drug trades. And there are reports of Hezbollah operatives in the US. Some reports came out this week by US law enforcement and/or intel agencies. Not too long ago Iranians were blamed for trying to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington DC. Plus various attacks and killings of Israelis in other nations. Iran is getting bolder.
Wait Iran is making money on Mexican drug trade?
Quote from: Razgovory on March 23, 2012, 12:20:18 PM
Wait Iran is making money on Mexican drug trade?
Iran's proxies Hezbollah. Who knows, maybe some of that cash may flow to Iranian groups like Quds which supports Hezbollah.
Quote from: KRonn on March 23, 2012, 12:11:26 PM
Are you seriously disputing this?
Yep. I hear this song and dance all the time. People are always pumping these little shit poor rogue states like they are major threats. They are minor annoyances that get portrayed as some sort of evil empire just because...boredom? This even happened to the Soviet Union and they actually were an evil empire but you would have thought they were basically omnipotent they way they were talked about back in the Cold War days.
QuoteHezbollah, supported by Iran's Quds group, has been working with Mexican drug cartels, making money in the drug trades. And there are reports of Hezbollah operatives in the US. Some reports came out this week by US law enforcement and/or intel agencies.
Hezbollah = not agents of the Iranian government, they serve a group of angry Lebanese and Iran likes them so they give them stuff. But proxies? Please. Hezbollah does whatever it wants. And even so Hezbollah cannot project power anywhere. They cannot even control Lebanon much less have a network of sinister operatives. What does that even mean Hezbollah 'operatives'? They are a freaking militia. They are not the KGB. As for making money off of the Mexican Drug Trade...well that is no big deal so do half the High School dropouts in Texas.
Hey Valm, I heard Hezbollah helped topple the Mali government :secret:
Quote from: KRonn on March 23, 2012, 12:57:34 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on March 23, 2012, 12:20:18 PM
Wait Iran is making money on Mexican drug trade?
Iran's proxies Hezbollah. Who knows, maybe some of that cash may flow to Iranian groups like Quds which supports Hezbollah.
Or Santa Claus perhaps.
Quote from: derspiess on March 23, 2012, 01:49:15 PM
Hey Valm, I heard Hezbollah helped topple the Mali government :secret:
Their agents in the State of Florida helped get that Stand Your Ground law passed.
Quote from: Valmy on March 23, 2012, 01:51:32 PM
Quote from: derspiess on March 23, 2012, 01:49:15 PM
Hey Valm, I heard Hezbollah helped topple the Mali government :secret:
Their agents in the State of Florida helped get that Stand Your Ground law passed.
And they've also offed a bunch of Arabic linguists!