I don't want to go all Timmay here, but I do have a few things to say about this article. When did CNN start working with Orcs? And why hasn't Santorum gotten any traction?
QuoteWashington (CNN) – A new national survey of Republicans indicates that it's basically all tied up between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, with Gingrich on the rise and businessman Herman Cain falling due to the sexual harassment allegations he's been facing the past two weeks.
According to a CNN/ORC International Poll released Monday, 24% of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP say Romney is their most likely choice for their party's presidential nominee with Gingrich at 22%. Romney's two-point advantage is well within the survey's sampling error.
While the level of support has pretty much stayed the same for Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who's making his second bid for the White House, Gingrich has seen his support jump 14 points since October.
The poll also indicates that 14 percent back Cain, down 11 points from last month. Four women have alleged that Cain sexually harassed them during the late 1990s when he headed the National Restaurant Association. Cain denies the allegations.
"Cain is struggling with the charges of sexual harassment, and while most Republicans tend to dismiss those charges, roughly four in 10 Republicans think this is a serious matter and tend to believe the women who made those charges," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said.
The survey indicates that only a bare majority of Republicans tend to believe Cain, and more than a third say he should end his presidential campaign. Among the general public, Cain has a bigger credibility problem - 50% of all Americans say they tend to believe the women and only a third say they believe Cain.
"Not surprisingly, there is a big gender gap on this matter - women say this is a serious matter and believe the women, but men say the story has been overblown and are split on which side they believe," Holland added.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry is at 12% in the survey, basically all even with Cain for third place in the hunt for the nomination. Perry was at 13% in CNN's October poll. The new survey was conducted Friday through Sunday, entirely after last Wednesday's presidential debate where Perry suffered an embarrassing "oops" moment when the one-time front-runner struggled for nearly a minute to name the third of three federal agencies he would cut if elected president.
While Perry's overall horse race number has not suffered, dig deeper into the poll and it appears the "oops" moment is hurting his standing with Republican voters. In September, 72% of Republicans said Perry had the right personal qualities to be president. A majority of Republicans still feel that way, but that number has dropped 14 points since September.
According to the poll, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who's making his third run for the presidency, is at 8%, with Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota at 6%, former Utah Gov. and former ambassador to China Jon Huntsman and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania each at 3%, and 8% are unsure.
The poll's Monday release comes seven weeks and one day before the Iowa caucuses, the first contest on the primary and caucus calendar. The survey indicates that just over six in 10 Republicans say they may change their minds, with 31% say they will definitely support the candidate they are currently backing.
With Cain dropping and Perry flat-lining, it looks like it's Gingrich's turn to become the "anybody but Romney" candidate. If the GOP race becomes a two-man battle between Romney and Gingrich, the poll indicates they are well-matched. Romney and Gingrich are the two most popular Republican candidates among the GOP rank and file, and the only two with favorable ratings above 50% among the Republicans surveyed.
More than three-quarters of Republicans think both men have the right personal qualities to be president and more than seven in 10 Republicans say they agree with Gingrich and Romney on important issues.
The key difference between Romney and Gingrich is electability. For the first time in CNN's polling, Romney now tops Barack Obama in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters. But Gingrich faces an 8-point deficit when paired with Obama in a general election matchup.
"Among all Americans, 58% say that Romney has the personal qualities a president should have, compared to just 45% for Gingrich. Most Americans don't agree with either man on important issues," Holland said.
The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International, with 1,036 adults Americans, including 480 Republicans and Independents who lean Republican, as well as 552 men and 514 women, questioned by telephone. The overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points, with a sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for questions only of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP.
Well, I was wondering about the Santorum question: so I looked at Wiki and found this:
QuoteSantorum and his wife, Karen Garver Santorum, have seven children: Elizabeth Anne (born 1991); Richard John ("Johnny"), Jr. (born 1993); Daniel James (born 1995); Sarah Maria (born 1998); Peter Kenneth (born 1999); Patrick Francis (born 2001); and Isabella "Bella" Maria (born 2008). Bella was subsequently diagnosed with Trisomy 18, a serious genetic disorder which is fatal before birth in 90 per cent of cases.[104] In 1996, their son Gabriel Michael was born prematurely and lived for only two hours (a sonogram taken before Gabriel was born revealed that his posterior urethral valve was closed and that the prognosis for his survival was therefore poor). While pregnant, Karen Santorum developed a life-threatening intrauterine infection and a fever that reached nearly 105 degrees. She went into labor when she was 20 weeks pregnant and allowed doctors to give her Oxytocin to speed the birth.[105]
Karen Santorum wrote a book about the experience: Letters to Gabriel: The True Story of Gabriel Michael Santorum.[106] In it, she writes that the couple brought the deceased infant home from the hospital and introduced the dead child to their living children as "your brother Gabriel" and slept with the body overnight before returning it to the hospital. The anecdote was also written about by Michael Sokolove in a 2005 New York Times Magazine story on Santorum.[1] Karen is also the author of a book on etiquette for children.[107]
Oh, so maybe that's why.
:licklips:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmoneysavingmom.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2010%2F04%2Ffig_newtons.jpg&hash=33baa522ff4767dc0ed0bce2ea760c6f3370b49c)
So, how long does this game last? Is Newt the last one to be the answer to Romney, or do we have time for another one? Santorum is still waiting for his turn.
I'm looking forward to the McCotter surge.
Is it too late for someone else to enter the race
This poll surveyed Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. That's going to give you a different result than the typical primary survey.
Quote from: DGuller on November 14, 2011, 04:30:19 PM
So, how long does this game last? Is Newt the last one to be the answer to Romney, or do we have time for another one? Santorum is still waiting for his turn.
I can't look at Santorum with out thinking of Norman Bates now. Sleeping with a dead baby is really creepy.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 14, 2011, 04:51:17 PM
This poll surveyed Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. That's going to give you a different result than the typical primary survey.
In what way?
Incidentally I think Nate Silver said that the nascent Newt-surge seems to be happening in early state polls too not just nationally.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 14, 2011, 04:54:13 PMMore...independent. :huh:
Possibly. I think I've read (and mentioned) that Republican (and Democrat) leaning 'independents' actually tend to vote for that party as much and overwhelmingly share the views of that party. They've far more in common with the party they 'lean' towards than they do independents or swing voters.
Having said that shouldn't that help Romney?
Quote from: Razgovory on November 14, 2011, 04:51:50 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 14, 2011, 04:30:19 PM
So, how long does this game last? Is Newt the last one to be the answer to Romney, or do we have time for another one? Santorum is still waiting for his turn.
I can't look at Santorum with out thinking of Norman Bates now. Sleeping with a dead baby is really creepy.
Noy only a dead baby. a dead premature baby. they look weird at the best of times.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 14, 2011, 04:57:11 PM
Having said that shouldn't that help Romney?
One would expect that, yes. My point is it's not surprising that Newt replaces the conservative flavor of the month in this particular poll.
So Cain craters, but Romney doesn't rise and Gingrich surges.
Before that, Perry cratered, but Romney didn't rise and Cain surged.
This gives some credence to the theory that Romney has a ceiling of support that is going to keep him from being the nominee.
Or, after going through the entire roster (except for Paul and Huntsman, obviously), Republicans will go "Oh, fuck it, I give up. Romney it is."
Quote from: alfred russel on November 14, 2011, 05:07:23 PM
So Cain craters, but Romney doesn't rise and Gingrich surges.
Has Cain truly cratered? I thought he was going to ride it out because of the squishiness of sexual harrassment charges.
Quote from: DGuller on November 14, 2011, 05:11:03 PM
Or, after going through the entire roster (except for Paul and Huntsman, obviously), Republicans will go "Oh, fuck it, I give up. Romney it is."
I think we have discussed this before, but we probably end up in a situation where if Romney can't get over 50% of the vote, he won't win. If 50+% of the electorate is shifting between similar candidates that are not Romney, maybe 50+% just want someone other than him. Whoever ends up as the last man (or woman) standing of those candidates, may be the one to go over 50%.
Depends on how early the anti-Romney votes consolidate. Republican primary races tend to be decided very quickly.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 14, 2011, 05:15:25 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 14, 2011, 05:07:23 PM
So Cain craters, but Romney doesn't rise and Gingrich surges.
Has Cain truly cratered? I thought he was going to ride it out because of the squishiness of sexual harrassment charges.
I haven't been following so closely. I heard on the radio that there was a tracking poll that had shown him up at 40%, but late last week the same poll showed he fell to 18%. 18% would still be a good showing, but to lose so much support is a train wreck. I'm guessing the radio station picked a poll that showed the most change. Someone following this more closely may have better numbers.
Ugh, God, I did not need to read the part about Santorum. :x :x :x I could literally feel the contents of my stomach inch up. That makes the santorum stuff he's known for look palatable by comparison.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 14, 2011, 05:07:23 PM
So Cain craters, but Romney doesn't rise and Gingrich surges.
Before that, Perry cratered, but Romney didn't rise and Cain surged.
This gives some credence to the theory that Romney has a ceiling of support that is going to keep him from being the nominee.
I think Romney has fared well in one on one polls with other candidates. This will probably bear out in the primaries when other candidates inevitably drop out after the first couple primaries/caucuses.
Also, there are two other national polls that have just been released. Out of the three national polls, Romney, Gingrich, and Cain each lead in one of the polls. And Cain is still leading in many of the recent Iowa polls. http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
But generally I agree. The people who are saying that Romney has this election locked up yet are being a little premature IMO. Iowa is still up for grabs. Romney is going to win New Hampshire. South Carolina is completely up for grabs. Florida is up for grabs. Romney is obviously the best candidate as far as the media and establishment is concerned, but the voters don't always go along with that, particularly in light of how far right the current Republican electorate is.
Just look at all the Tea Party candidates that won Republican primaries in 2010. For example, in 2010, in Florida, Rick Scott, a businessmen with a shady past and absolutely no political experience beat Bill McCollum, a widely respected career politician in Florida for the Republican governor nomination and ended up winning the general election. If Romney doesn't lock it up early, I could see a long drawn out battle.
I'd say that Cain doesn't come across as particularly strong on foreign policy in this question on Libya: http://www.jsonline.com/multimedia/video/?bcpid=13960334001&bctid=1275195602001
Apparently he would've done a better job than Obama on Libya, primarily through hearing all the different views and assessing the available information and making a decision as the commander in chief.
Quote from: DGuller on November 14, 2011, 05:17:49 PM
Depends on how early the anti-Romney votes consolidate. Republican primary races tend to be decided very quickly.
Candidates also tend to drop out very quickly. If Romney takes a plurality in early states, I doubt everyone is going to drop out and give him the win. The people finishing in 4th and 5th or worse will lose their media coverage, their money, and their appeal to undecided voters. By SC we will probably no more than 3 candidates with meaningful support. Only a negligible number of delegates will have been awarded by then.
I bet Pawlentey wished he hadn't dropped out now. This could have been his moment :(
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 14, 2011, 05:47:19 PM
I bet Pawlentey wished he hadn't dropped out now. This could have been his moment :(
He would just be fighting with Huntsman for his seven votes.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 14, 2011, 05:51:25 PMHe would just be fighting with Huntsman for his seven votes.
But they're going for very different markets. Pawlentey was meant to be the reliably conservative (and Evangelical) alternative to Romney who wouldn't frighten the horses.
Huntsman's doing his own thing. It is to Republican politics what Shatner is to singing.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 14, 2011, 05:54:06 PM
But they're going for very different markets. Pawlentey was meant to be the reliably conservative (and Evangelical) alternative to Romney who wouldn't frighten the horses.
??? I thought Pawlenty was supposed to be the grown-up managerial candidate. I.e the non-Mormon, non-Obamacare Romney.
Pawlenty was the candidate for people who thought that straw polls in the middle of the summer provided any kind of definitive answer. Even in a field full of very bad ideas, that one was unique.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 14, 2011, 05:55:59 PM??? I thought Pawlenty was supposed to be the grown-up managerial candidate. I.e the non-Mormon, non-Obamacare Romney.
He was a grown up, dull governor with a Christian conservative flavour. He described himself as reliably socially conservative and I believe his campaign drew quiet attention to his Christianity, position on abortion, support for reinstating DADT and all the rest in contrast with Romney. He was trying to be the guy who could get conservative, Tea Party and moderate votes. Then Michelle Bachmann entered the race and everything went mad.
It also didn't help that he bent over when under fire, which he could do with great agility due to absence of spine.
Quote from: DGuller on November 14, 2011, 05:21:12 PM
Ugh, God, I did not need to read the part about Santorum. :x :x :x I could literally feel the contents of my stomach inch up. That makes the santorum stuff he's known for look palatable by comparison.
For some reason, Languish attracts people who get the queasies. Zoups, Spellus the hipster and now you.
I am... disappointed.
Quote from: Jacob on November 14, 2011, 05:28:28 PM
I'd say that Cain doesn't come across as particularly strong on foreign policy in this question on Libya: http://www.jsonline.com/multimedia/video/?bcpid=13960334001&bctid=1275195602001
Just saw this on CNN. :pinch:
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 14, 2011, 05:15:25 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 14, 2011, 05:07:23 PM
So Cain craters, but Romney doesn't rise and Gingrich surges.
Has Cain truly cratered? I thought he was going to ride it out because of the squishiness of sexual harrassment charges.
Not yet, but he's dead in the water. He'll keep going down. I wonder if it would have been different if the chicks had been black. You have a black man hitting on white chicks. That just won't play in the South.
Quote from: DGuller on November 14, 2011, 05:11:03 PM
Or, after going through the entire roster (except for Paul and Huntsman, obviously), Republicans will go "Oh, fuck it, I give up. Romney it is."
Newt's skeletons are on public record, why would people supporting him now throw him over for Romney? :hmm:
QuoteKaren Santorum wrote a book about the experience: Letters to Gabriel: The True Story of Gabriel Michael Santorum.[106] In it, she writes that the couple brought the deceased infant home from the hospital and introduced the dead child to their living children as "your brother Gabriel" and slept with the body overnight before returning it to the hospital. The anecdote was also written about by Michael Sokolove in a 2005 New York Times Magazine story on Santorum.[1] Karen is also the author of a book on etiquette for children.[107]
Diff'rent strokes for diff'rent folks I guess. Gross, but I suppose it's not hurting anyone? May be a bit traumatic for the tykes, but whatever. I wonder if they gave them a stick to poke Gabriel.
Ah, the latest incarnation of "ABR" - Anybody But Romney
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on November 14, 2011, 08:00:53 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 14, 2011, 05:11:03 PM
Or, after going through the entire roster (except for Paul and Huntsman, obviously), Republicans will go "Oh, fuck it, I give up. Romney it is."
Newt's skeletons are on public record, why would people supporting him now throw him over for Romney? :hmm:
Well, his skeletons up to the 1990's. Remember, the guy's been doing stuff since then. For instance, he's been writing alternative history. That's got to hurt him.
I don't particularly like Newt for President, but I think he's about the smartest one there. He has so many ideas, often sweeping plans for real change that he can elaborate on so well. He is extremely articulate, and has a great grasp of ideas, facts and information.
And here I expected this to be a light article on someone producing newt flavoured crisps or the like.
Quote from: stjaba on November 14, 2011, 05:25:24 PM
I think Romney has fared well in one on one polls with other candidates.
I didn't know that. Interesting, and definitely goes against the theory I was tossing out there.
I think they will end up choosing Romney at the end of the day. Kinda like how the GOP didn't really like John McCain but chose him in the end because there was nobody better.
Quote from: KRonn on November 14, 2011, 08:26:45 PM
I don't particularly like Newt for President, but I think he's about the smartest one there. He has so many ideas, often sweeping plans for real change that he can elaborate on so well. He is extremely articulate, and has a great grasp of ideas, facts and information.
He is likely the most qualified candidate in the Republican field, and the most likely to actually get something done (especially if the American people decide to keep the House and Senate under split control as now. But I think he is too intelligent and liable to compromise for the majority of the Tea Party and Moral Majority wings of the party to accept.
Eh, Gingrich is plenty conservative. His baggage is mainly personal history and likeability.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 14, 2011, 05:15:25 PM
Has Cain truly cratered?
I don't think so -- cratering implies that you can't go down further and I have faith in Cain's abilities for creative self-destruction. If Rick Perry has proven anything this campaign, it is no matter how bad things seem, they still can get worse.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 15, 2011, 10:40:48 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 14, 2011, 05:15:25 PM
Has Cain truly cratered?
I don't think so -- cratering implies that you can't go down further and I have faith in Cain's abilities for creative self-destruction. If Rick Perry has proven anything this campaign, it is no matter how bad things seem, they still can get worse.
:lol:
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on November 15, 2011, 02:57:50 AM
Eh, Gingrich is plenty conservative. His baggage is mainly personal history and likeability.
Yeah, plus the fact that when he was Speaker of the House, he was pretty badly outmanouvered politically by President Clinton. Some people see that as evidence that he wouldn't be very effective in getting his ideas put into policy. Personally, I don't quite agree with that--Clinton was one of the slickest politicians we've ever had, and the current Democratic leadership is nowhere near as adroit.