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General Category => Off the Record => Topic started by: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 06:31:36 AM

Title: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 06:31:36 AM
So, back when I was 20-something, I thought I would start investing money (nb, I won't be "playing" at stocks - it's too much hassle considering our firm's corporate governance rule etc.) into investment fund units etc. around the time I'd turn 30, but the financial crisis postponed that. Now I am considering starting doing it, but with the Greek bankruptcy looming etc., it's unclear to me if I should do so or wait a bit more.

Since Languish has many people who seem to be doing fairly well in this department, I thought I'd ask.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Eddie Teach on July 06, 2011, 06:37:35 AM
Beats spending the money on interior decorators.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: The Brain on July 06, 2011, 06:39:50 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on July 06, 2011, 06:37:35 AM
Beats spending the money on interior decorators.

:bleeding:
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Razgovory on July 06, 2011, 06:44:20 AM
You still dating that guy with AIDS?  It's probably not worth bothering with.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Caliga on July 06, 2011, 06:45:59 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 06:31:36 AM
(nb, I won't be "playing" at stocks - it's too much hassle considering our firm's corporate governance rule etc.)
:hmm:

I work for a publicly-traded company and the only rules revolve around trading our company's stock during blackouts and using knowledge gained at work to influence trading (which presumably only affects trading the company's stock and the stock of its competitors and possibly vendors/clients).
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Grey Fox on July 06, 2011, 06:47:36 AM
I invest my RRSP. I'd like to have a little invest money but alas.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 06, 2011, 06:51:11 AM
Quote from: Caliga on July 06, 2011, 06:45:59 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 06:31:36 AM
(nb, I won't be "playing" at stocks - it's too much hassle considering our firm's corporate governance rule etc.)
:hmm:

I work for a publicly-traded company and the only rules revolve around trading our company's stock during blackouts and using knowledge gained at work to influence trading (which presumably only affects trading the company's stock and the stock of its competitors and possibly vendors/clients).

Our stock is going to be replaced by someone else's stock at .96 value next year! Yay corporate greed!
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 06, 2011, 06:53:26 AM
You missed the boat by about 3 years.

I had earlier predicted that this would be a good year for equities because at some point US consumers have to start spending all the money they've been saving ever since the crisis, but I've changed my mind, mostly because of the effect increased borrowing costs will have on corporate bottom lines once the full effects of no more QE are felt in bond markets.

My personal plan is to get into bonds once that happens.  Even better would be if the budget talks go right down to the wire and bond traders start to panic. 
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: alfred russel on July 06, 2011, 07:11:07 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 06:31:36 AM
So, back when I was 20-something, I thought I would start investing money (nb, I won't be "playing" at stocks - it's too much hassle considering our firm's corporate governance rule etc.) into investment fund units etc. around the time I'd turn 30, but the financial crisis postponed that. Now I am considering starting doing it, but with the Greek bankruptcy looming etc., it's unclear to me if I should do so or wait a bit more.

Since Languish has many people who seem to be doing fairly well in this department, I thought I'd ask.

What are you doing with all your money if you aren't investing it?

Fwiw, I thought the good time to invest was during the financial crisis. But I think the best thing to do is invest in indexed funds with low expense ratios on a regular basis so you aren't trying to time the market. A strategy would be to resolve to invest $1,000 each month on a certain date, for example. You should also diversify--for example 70% stocks and 30% bonds, with both in low expense and broad funds. You should then rebalance when certain conditions are met - if stocks do well and bonds do poorly so that you have 75% stocks and 25% bonds, you should sell stocks and buy bonds so that it is back to your target percent.

There is research showing that a strategy like the one above produces the best returns with the least volitility. There is also a good case that you should diversify out of stocks and bonds: some other asset classifications that you can put money into without active management are commodities and real estate, and you can subdivide stocks and bonds into international vs. domestic, or based on the size of the company.

I don't know what to say about your currency. It is easier in a country with a major currency to invest without taking on a lot of currency risk. There is a limited about of diversification you can get if you concentrate in zloty denominated assets, but if you mostly invest in euro/dollar/yen/etc. assets you stand to lose if the zloty strengthens.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 07:14:33 AM
Quote from: Caliga on July 06, 2011, 06:45:59 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 06:31:36 AM
(nb, I won't be "playing" at stocks - it's too much hassle considering our firm's corporate governance rule etc.)
:hmm:

I work for a publicly-traded company and the only rules revolve around trading our company's stock during blackouts and using knowledge gained at work to influence trading (which presumably only affects trading the company's stock and the stock of its competitors and possibly vendors/clients).

My firm works *for* countless publicly listed companies and we often have access to insider information. I need to get a specific permission from our London HQ to do any share deal in the public market.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 06, 2011, 07:15:43 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on July 06, 2011, 07:11:07 AM
if you concentrate in zloty denominated assets,

That just sounds shitty.  WHATS THE EXCHANGE FUTURES LOOKING LIKE FOR THE STONE COINS OF THE YAP HIGHLANDERS
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 07:17:54 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on July 06, 2011, 07:11:07 AM
What are you doing with all your money if you aren't investing it?
Deposits, including in various currencies, and I bought some real estate.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Tamas on July 06, 2011, 07:24:36 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 07:14:33 AM
My firm works *for* countless publicly listed companies and we often have access to insider information

PM SENT
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 06, 2011, 07:26:22 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 06, 2011, 07:24:36 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 07:14:33 AM
My firm works *for* countless publicly listed companies and we often have access to insider information

PM SENT

The demands Marty would make on you for that information is more than you'd be willing to pay out. It's more than your toes, you'd be selling your sole.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on July 06, 2011, 07:30:22 AM
Another CdM comment laced with criticisms of Marty, amazing how he manages to shoehorn them in.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: alfred russel on July 06, 2011, 07:45:03 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 07:17:54 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on July 06, 2011, 07:11:07 AM
What are you doing with all your money if you aren't investing it?
Deposits, including in various currencies, and I bought some real estate.

Doesn't your firm have an investment advisor to talk to?
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: dps on July 06, 2011, 09:06:03 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on July 06, 2011, 07:30:22 AM
Another CdM comment laced with criticisms of Marty, amazing how he manages to shoehorn them in.


Yeah, but I'm wondering if "sole" was intended as a pun, or if it was just a misspelling.

Anyway, Marty, when you're investing for the long term, the sooner you do so, the better.  So now is a better time than next year.

If you're talking about investing for the short term, though, it's much more iffy.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 09:39:25 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on July 06, 2011, 07:45:03 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 07:17:54 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on July 06, 2011, 07:11:07 AM
What are you doing with all your money if you aren't investing it?
Deposits, including in various currencies, and I bought some real estate.

Doesn't your firm have an investment advisor to talk to?

Nope.  :huh:
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Barrister on July 06, 2011, 10:06:09 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 07:14:33 AM
Quote from: Caliga on July 06, 2011, 06:45:59 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 06:31:36 AM
(nb, I won't be "playing" at stocks - it's too much hassle considering our firm's corporate governance rule etc.)
:hmm:

I work for a publicly-traded company and the only rules revolve around trading our company's stock during blackouts and using knowledge gained at work to influence trading (which presumably only affects trading the company's stock and the stock of its competitors and possibly vendors/clients).

My firm works *for* countless publicly listed companies and we often have access to insider information. I need to get a specific permission from our London HQ to do any share deal in the public market.

That sounds surprising.  In my very first lawfirm I started out in the securities department, so pretty much by definition every single one of our clients were publicly listed companies, or were intending to become public companies.  I do not recall any such restriction.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 10:52:02 AM
Quote from: Barrister on July 06, 2011, 10:06:09 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 07:14:33 AM
Quote from: Caliga on July 06, 2011, 06:45:59 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 06:31:36 AM
(nb, I won't be "playing" at stocks - it's too much hassle considering our firm's corporate governance rule etc.)
:hmm:

I work for a publicly-traded company and the only rules revolve around trading our company's stock during blackouts and using knowledge gained at work to influence trading (which presumably only affects trading the company's stock and the stock of its competitors and possibly vendors/clients).

My firm works *for* countless publicly listed companies and we often have access to insider information. I need to get a specific permission from our London HQ to do any share deal in the public market.

That sounds surprising.  In my very first lawfirm I started out in the securities department, so pretty much by definition every single one of our clients were publicly listed companies, or were intending to become public companies.  I do not recall any such restriction.

You are probably not covered by MAD, if that was just a Canadian lawfirm.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: crazy canuck on July 06, 2011, 11:06:28 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 07:14:33 AM
Quote from: Caliga on July 06, 2011, 06:45:59 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 06:31:36 AM
(nb, I won't be "playing" at stocks - it's too much hassle considering our firm's corporate governance rule etc.)
:hmm:

I work for a publicly-traded company and the only rules revolve around trading our company's stock during blackouts and using knowledge gained at work to influence trading (which presumably only affects trading the company's stock and the stock of its competitors and possibly vendors/clients).

My firm works *for* countless publicly listed companies and we often have access to insider information. I need to get a specific permission from our London HQ to do any share deal in the public market.

You mean to tell me your firm's policies do not allow you to set up the equivalent of a blind trust so that you are able to participate in the equity market?  Or more to the point you havent been able to figure that out yet? Its posts like this that perpetuate the meme that you are not really a lawyer
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Barrister on July 06, 2011, 11:07:59 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 10:52:02 AM
You are probably not covered by MAD, if that was just a Canadian lawfirm.

I don't know what MAD is, but yes it was a Canadian firm (though a national firm - the same one Malthus works for currently).  Thinking about it, I think there was a 'do not trade' list that was circulated, but that is still a long way from having to get permission to make any trade.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: crazy canuck on July 06, 2011, 11:08:07 AM
Quote from: Barrister on July 06, 2011, 10:06:09 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 07:14:33 AM
Quote from: Caliga on July 06, 2011, 06:45:59 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 06:31:36 AM
(nb, I won't be "playing" at stocks - it's too much hassle considering our firm's corporate governance rule etc.)
:hmm:

I work for a publicly-traded company and the only rules revolve around trading our company's stock during blackouts and using knowledge gained at work to influence trading (which presumably only affects trading the company's stock and the stock of its competitors and possibly vendors/clients).

My firm works *for* countless publicly listed companies and we often have access to insider information. I need to get a specific permission from our London HQ to do any share deal in the public market.

That sounds surprising.  In my very first lawfirm I started out in the securities department, so pretty much by definition every single one of our clients were publicly listed companies, or were intending to become public companies.  I do not recall any such restriction.

It is suprising indeed.  This sounds more like just another one of Marti's "look at me look at me, I have more money then some of you" threads.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: alfred russel on July 06, 2011, 11:13:08 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on July 06, 2011, 11:06:28 AM
You mean to tell me your firm's policies do not allow you to set up the equivalent of a blind trust so that you are able to participate in the equity market?  Or more to the point you havent been able to figure that out yet? Its posts like this that perpetuate the meme that you are not really a lawyer

I think he was just saying he can't actively trade individual stocks. So funds that his company doesn't directly work with and a blind trust would be okay (I would think). I haven't heard of having to get each transaction approved, but I have heard of do not trade lists that are so extensive people just run every transaction by compliance.

I am surprised that he would work for 10 years as a high earner and leave his cash in deposit accounts. It seems such a waste to work hard for money and then just let it sit there.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 11:15:08 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on July 06, 2011, 11:13:08 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on July 06, 2011, 11:06:28 AM
You mean to tell me your firm's policies do not allow you to set up the equivalent of a blind trust so that you are able to participate in the equity market?  Or more to the point you havent been able to figure that out yet? Its posts like this that perpetuate the meme that you are not really a lawyer

I think he was just saying he can't actively trade individual stocks. So funds that his company doesn't directly work with and a blind trust would be okay (I would think).

Yeah, this.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 11:15:52 AM
Quote from: Barrister on July 06, 2011, 11:07:59 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 10:52:02 AM
You are probably not covered by MAD, if that was just a Canadian lawfirm.

I don't know what MAD is, but yes it was a Canadian firm (though a national firm - the same one Malthus works for currently).  Thinking about it, I think there was a 'do not trade' list that was circulated, but that is still a long way from having to get permission to make any trade.

Market Abuse Directive.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: crazy canuck on July 06, 2011, 11:18:40 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on July 06, 2011, 11:13:08 AM
I think he was just saying he can't actively trade individual stocks. So funds that his company doesn't directly work with and a blind trust would be okay (I would think). I haven't heard of having to get each transaction approved, but I have heard of do not trade lists that are so extensive people just run every transaction by compliance.

I am surprised that he would work for 10 years as a high earner and leave his cash in deposit accounts. It seems such a waste to work hard for money and then just let it sit there.

Yep, that is exactly what he should have said.  Which is what lead to my comment of why the meme continues to exist.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Grey Fox on July 06, 2011, 11:21:16 AM
Sometimes, you guys should learn to just read between the lines. Also, stuff might get lost in translation.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: DGuller on July 06, 2011, 04:21:41 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on July 06, 2011, 11:21:16 AM
Sometimes, you guys should learn to just read between the lines. Also, stuff might get lost in translation.
Is there any secret to reading between the lines? :unsure: I tried doing just that with Marty's post, but all I saw between the lines was just blank space.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 06, 2011, 05:43:12 PM
Quote from: dps on July 06, 2011, 09:06:03 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on July 06, 2011, 07:30:22 AM
Another CdM comment laced with criticisms of Marty, amazing how he manages to shoehorn them in.


Yeah, but I'm wondering if "sole" was intended as a pun, or if it was just a misspelling.

You should fucking know better than that.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: ulmont on July 07, 2011, 10:36:22 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on July 06, 2011, 11:08:07 AM
Quote from: Barrister on July 06, 2011, 10:06:09 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 07:14:33 AM
Quote from: Caliga on July 06, 2011, 06:45:59 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 06, 2011, 06:31:36 AM
(nb, I won't be "playing" at stocks - it's too much hassle considering our firm's corporate governance rule etc.)
:hmm:

I work for a publicly-traded company and the only rules revolve around trading our company's stock during blackouts and using knowledge gained at work to influence trading (which presumably only affects trading the company's stock and the stock of its competitors and possibly vendors/clients).

My firm works *for* countless publicly listed companies and we often have access to insider information. I need to get a specific permission from our London HQ to do any share deal in the public market.

That sounds surprising.  In my very first lawfirm I started out in the securities department, so pretty much by definition every single one of our clients were publicly listed companies, or were intending to become public companies.  I do not recall any such restriction.

It is suprising indeed.  This sounds more like just another one of Marti's "look at me look at me, I have more money then some of you" threads.

I have roughly the same restrictions - every trade must be preapproved.  Same restrictions at a previous non-legal job working for the Vanguard group.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Martinus on July 07, 2011, 10:42:15 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on July 06, 2011, 11:21:16 AM
Sometimes, you guys should learn to just read between the lines. Also, stuff might get lost in translation.

I don't know, to me "doing a trade in stocks" pretty much means making an individual, specific publicly listed transaction (and not, for example, putting money into investment funds and the like). Especially, as I pretty much stated in the opening post that this is exactly what I can do.

I think crazycanuck is just looking for an opportunity to troll me - I noticed that recently pretty much all his posts are a form of attack.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Martinus on July 07, 2011, 10:47:29 AM
Some excerpts from our rules:

The firm's people must ask for consent before they buy, sell or deal in shares in public companies. This applies to everyone – senior partner, secretary, associate, translator, etc etc, everywhere – London, Paris, Washington, Tokyo etc etc.

Dealings in units in a unit trust or other collective investment scheme is fine.

The rules also apply to dealings by or on behalf of any member of your immediate family.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 07, 2011, 10:59:40 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 07, 2011, 10:47:29 AM
Some excerpts from our rules:

The firm's people must ask for consent before they buy, sell or deal in shares in public companies. This applies to everyone – senior partner, secretary, associate, translator, etc etc, everywhere – London, Paris, Washington, Tokyo etc etc.

Dealings in units in a unit trust or other collective investment scheme is fine.

The rules also apply to dealings by or on behalf of any member of your immediate family.

That's pretty strict. It basically puts you at the mercy of brokers, so find one you trust. The family part is bullshit. They can't put an injunction on them.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: crazy canuck on July 07, 2011, 11:27:36 AM
Quote from: ulmont on July 07, 2011, 10:36:22 AM
I have roughly the same restrictions - every trade must be preapproved.  Same restrictions at a previous non-legal job working for the Vanguard group.

Which is exactly why people in those positions who wish to invest in equities use other means to do so such as blind trusts or their equivalents.  Generally professionals are too busy with their own work to pay enough attention to the markets closely enough to do their own trading.  Although if you are a buy and hold type person that can be done.

Generally one does not try to make the exuse that they have not invested because of these rules ala Marti.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: crazy canuck on July 07, 2011, 11:32:43 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on July 07, 2011, 10:59:40 AM
That's pretty strict. It basically puts you at the mercy of brokers, so find one you trust.

Its also pretty common in firms that have access to inside knowledge of publicly traded firms.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on July 07, 2011, 03:26:09 PM
Martinus -
unless you want to put a good amount of time and effort in research and analysis, you probably wouldn't want to trade single stocks anyway.
Or for that matter attempt to time the market.

I just come up with a basic asset allocation scheme, buy into passive index funds or ETFs for the applicable asset classes and then rebalance about two or three times a year.

That should be doable for you to the extent you are investing primarily in euro-denominated assets.  Could get more tricky to the extent you want more zloty exposure.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Malthus on July 07, 2011, 04:01:04 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 07, 2011, 03:26:09 PM
Martinus -
unless you want to put a good amount of time and effort in research and analysis, you probably wouldn't want to trade single stocks anyway.
Or for that matter attempt to time the market.

I just come up with a basic asset allocation scheme, buy into passive index funds or ETFs for the applicable asset classes and then rebalance about two or three times a year.

That should be doable for you to the extent you are investing primarily in euro-denominated assets.  Could get more tricky to the extent you want more zloty exposure.

This is more or less my approach - one note: far more significant that what fund to invest in, is your tax issues, which obviously vary by jurisdiction. For example, in Canada we are rewarded for investing as much as possible in a registered retirement savings program (RRSP) - you are not taxed on the amount you put into such funds until you take the money out (presumably, at a much lower rate than when you put the money in!) The savings by doing this with money you really do not need to use can be significant if you are in the 38% tax bracket ...

Poland may have things like this, I dunno. Ask your tax guys.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: Martinus on July 07, 2011, 05:06:54 PM
Here, the best way to avoid tax is to invest into a pseudo life insurance programme with a possibility of cashing it out after a fixed amount of years. That way you do not need to pay the capital gains tax.
Title: Re: Is this a good time to start investing already?
Post by: CountDeMoney on July 07, 2011, 08:05:55 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 07, 2011, 03:26:09 PM
zloty exposure.

Still sounds contagious.