Ah yes, the promise of Opening Day, when the Orioles begin their march to competitiveness in 2013, where the line up is promising, but the best pitching in the organization is in the minors learning how to shave.
This year, the competitive team I will root for will be: the LA Dodgers. What about you?
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2009, 05:11:46 AM
Ah yes, the promise of Opening Day, when the Orioles begin their march to competitiveness in 2013, where the line up is promising, but the best pitching in the organization is in the minors learning how to shave.
This year, the competitive team I will root for will be: the LA Dodgers. What about you?
The Red Sox! :w00t:
Have fun when Manny decides to explode the team because he didn't get paid enough. :console:
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2009, 05:35:09 AMHave fun when Manny decides to explode the team because he didn't get paid enough. :console:
I can't. He's on my fantasy team. :blush:
The good thing about the Pirates this season? It can't possibly be worse than the last one! :w00t:
Woohoo, Braves have the best record in baseball! Suck it Phillies.
Go Expos!
:weep:
Now if only Out of the Park 10 would come out. The devs asked the modders not to create a 2009 season file, because they'll include it in the new release. <_<
Cubs lose! :w00t:
Quote from: Weatherman on April 06, 2009, 08:04:06 AM
Cubs lose! :w00t:
Are you a Sox fan or just a prick? :lol:
Quote from: Weatherman on April 06, 2009, 08:04:06 AM
Cubs lose! :w00t:
The best way to always be happy as a baseball fan: passionately root for the Cubs to not win the World Series.
Quote from: The Nickname Who Was Thursday on April 06, 2009, 09:01:13 AM
Are you a Sox fan or just a prick? :lol:
There's nothing good about the Cubs.
Anyway, I totally forgot today was opening day-- until I was driving to work in the morning & saw ticket scalpers and peanut vendors already out on the sidewalks :huh:
Doesn't sound like Donato's will have free pizza at the parade this year, so I won't bother going to that. Our building owners are giving away free food around lunchtime, though.
I am now a Yankees fan.
One 9 year old boy cannot be wrong, especially when is my progeny.
It's in the mid-40s & raining in Cincy. :nelson: at all the people who paid extra to be at this game.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2009, 05:11:46 AM
This year, the competitive team I will root for will be: the LA Dodgers. What about you?
You are dead to me J.
Los Gigantes de San Francisco!
Nice pitching staff but bunch of nobodies in the lineup so i expect them to be 2nd or 3rd behind said Dodgers (unless LA has one of it's normal self imploding teams which is all too common these last 20 years )
Quote from: Berkut on April 06, 2009, 10:27:59 AM
I am now a Yankees fan.
One 9 year old boy cannot be wrong, especially when is my progeny.
Sure he can, he gets it from his poppa.
:P
Quote from: Berkut on April 06, 2009, 10:27:59 AM
I am now a Yankees fan.
One 9 year old boy cannot be wrong, especially when is my progeny.
:mad: Of course he can be wrong, he's a nine year old boy, innocent and impressionable. How can you let him go down such a dark and evil path!?
God, Timmy's chattering reminds me why the Red Sox nation should be sent to death camps.
Go Nippon Ham Fighters!
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 06, 2009, 02:36:53 PM
Go Nippon Ham Fighters!
Someday I'm going to Hokkaido, just to see the Ham Fighters play.
Quote from: DisturbedPervert on April 06, 2009, 02:40:20 PM
Someday I'm going to Hokkaido, just to see the Ham Fighters play.
If you do pick me up a jersey.
Will do. But you have to write our chants against the Yamiuri Giants.
Quote from: DisturbedPervert on April 06, 2009, 02:50:19 PM
Will do. But you have to write our chants against the Yamiuri Giants.
Fight, fight, Nippon Ham
Fight hard against Yamiuri Giants!
This year the Tigers won't have the opening series in Detroit; which is good since the weather is almost always miserable in early April. Instead it's in Toronto. :Canuck:
Quote from: DisturbedPervert on April 06, 2009, 02:50:19 PM
Will do. But you have to write our chants against the Yamiuri Giants.
Those chants (and the accompanying music) is so annoying & repetitive. They continue through the entire damned game. Or at least they did in the few games my uncle taped for us when he was in Okinawa.
Quote from: katmai on April 06, 2009, 01:26:07 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2009, 05:11:46 AM
This year, the competitive team I will root for will be: the LA Dodgers. What about you?
You are dead to me J.
Los Gigantes de San Francisco!
Nice pitching staff but bunch of nobodies in the lineup so i expect them to be 2nd or 3rd behind said Dodgers (unless LA has one of it's normal self imploding teams which is all too common these last 20 years )
I want to like SF, I really do; yet they suffer still from Barry Bonds taint.
Ah, opening day - the closest the Royals will be all season to getting into the playoffs. :cry:
They're preempting televised poker for a Blue Jays pregame show. How ridiculous.
Quote from: Barrister on April 06, 2009, 05:05:46 PM
Ah, opening day - the closest the Royals will be all season to getting into the playoffs. :cry:
Royals are supposed to be a lot better this year. If they remain healthy they could win 90 games.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2009, 06:27:54 PM
Quote from: Barrister on April 06, 2009, 05:05:46 PM
Ah, opening day - the closest the Royals will be all season to getting into the playoffs. :cry:
Royals are supposed to be a lot better this year. If they remain healthy they could win 90 games.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I've heard that too.
But I've also heard that about almost every perennial loser MLB team is going to be the "next Tampa Bay".
Orioles thump the Yankees and the uberpitcher CC Sabathia.
For at least one day, baseball life is good.
The Rangers finally won on opening day. Season: success. -_-
Bucs won on opening day. Like in the past when they came up last. They can thank the Cards' closer for that who allowed four runs in the 9th. Up till then the Pirates had collected 10 strike outs, vs. the Cards' 2.
Tigers lost :(
Yankees lost :)
Overall it was a mixed bag for opening day.
Nationals got beat up. :yeah:
Toronto won, I guess I should be happy about that.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2009, 02:24:06 PM
Quote from: Berkut on April 06, 2009, 10:27:59 AM
I am now a Yankees fan.
One 9 year old boy cannot be wrong, especially when is my progeny.
:mad: Of course he can be wrong, he's a nine year old boy, innocent and impressionable. How can you let him go down such a dark and evil path!?
The same way someone let you go down one? :P
Sav and I were at a local sports bar last night. The Tigers and the Red Wings games were both on, followed by the NCAA championship game with MSU. To top it off, we didn't have to get up for beer like we would have done at home - our favorite bartender personally brought it over for us.
Folks, it just doesn't get much better than this.
edit: ok, the Spartans and the Tigers could have won. That would have made it better.
Quote from: Savonarola on April 07, 2009, 07:48:19 AM
Tigers lost :(
Yankees lost :)
Overall it was a mixed bag for opening day.
Tigers gave one away last night.
Sigh...it's going to be a loooooong season.
The Orioles are undefeated!
And the Royals lost. :rolleyes:
Pirates got slaughtered. :(
The Pirates have some good young talent, Pedro Alveraz, especially. They should be decent in the next few years.
My team, the Rays, lost last night to Boston, but they've never played well in Fenway. Most "experts" think they're due for about 90 wins and 3rd place in the East, but I think the Yankees are going to flop. I do think the Rays will be good for 88-92 wins, or so, and that it will be enough to win the Wild Card.
Quote from: Berkut on April 06, 2009, 10:27:59 AM
I am now a Yankees fan.
One 9 year old boy cannot be wrong, especially when is my progeny.
Soon you will learn to bask happily in the reflected hate and envy of boosters of inferior teams like the Red Sox and Angels. Not to mention farcicial basket bases like the Orioles or the Pirates.
Nothing feels better than embracing the Dark Side.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2009, 07:58:39 PM
Orioles thump the Yankees and the uberpitcher CC Sabathia.
For at least one day, baseball life is good.
To paraphrase Churchill, tomorrow Sabathia will be sober, but Baltimore will still be stuck with the Orioles.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 08, 2009, 04:43:22 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2009, 07:58:39 PM
Orioles thump the Yankees and the uberpitcher CC Sabathia.
For at least one day, baseball life is good.
To paraphrase Churchill, tomorrow Sabathia will be sober, but Baltimore will still be stuck with the Orioles.
True, but even the O's are getting better. They have a decent amount of offensive talent(Markakis, Roberts, Huff, etc.) with more on the way(Wieters).
The Yanks are going to be good this year, but they're definitely on the decline. All their best players are getting worse every year as they're getting older. Rivera is getting close to 40. They're going to be stuck with A-Rod until something like 2017, which would be okay if he was on PEDs, but I think he's going to decline faster than everyone anticipates. Nate Silver of Pecota and 538 fame predicts that A-Rod won't touch the HR record. Jeter is awful defensively, but there's no way he's cut loose after next year, unless management wants to alienate the fanbase. I know it will be a hard decision, but the "right" thing to do will probably be to cut Jeter, unless he wants to switch positions. Unfortunately, 1B is locked up for the next several years, so I don't know where he would even go.
It's funny because last year they want for the youth movement, and this year they returned to the free agent approach. What are they going to do in the next 1- 2 years when Posada, Rivera, Jeter, Damon, and Petttite really decline? I don't really buy Cano and Gardner/Melky Cabrera as long term solutions either.
I think Boston is going to be dominant over the next few years. They have money, like New York, but they also have one of the smartest front offices in the game. They also have plenty of minor-league talent on the way.
Quote from: Grey Fox on April 07, 2009, 07:51:01 AM
Nationals got beat up. :yeah:
Toronto won, I guess I should be happy about that.
Wrong. As a Canadian, you should hate baseball, and you should hate anything from Toronto or Vancouver.
Quote from: stjaba on April 08, 2009, 04:57:10 PM
True, but even the O's are getting better. They have a decent amount of offensive talent(Markakis, Roberts, Huff, etc.) with more on the way(Wieters).
The Yanks are going to be good this year, but they're definitely on the decline.
You can't talk about the Yankee hitters being in decline and then cite to Huff as a reliable offensive talent. He can't be expected to continue at the level he hit last year.
As for Arod - you can't have it both ways. Either he has been off the PEDs since he said he went off (in which case he is perfectly capable of MVP level performances without them) or he has figured out a way to beat the system and hence can continue to benefit from them. All the projections I've seen him have him as a cinch to hit 700 and with a decent (30+%) chance at catching Bonds. That is plenty good enough.
Finally there is no binary choice between the "free agent approach" and the "youth approach". Theo does both. Its just a question of how you do it. The statgeek wisdom on free agents is that you go after the grade A guys with good health track records. The Yankees hit 2 out of 3 on that basis. CC and Tex are still pretty young guys and Tex bolsters the infield defense. Damon has already been moved out of CF and Jackson is maybe a year out in the minors. They have a couple of very solid catching prospects coming up the system as well. And there is still a huge pipeline of young arms in the minors that can be used to bolster the staff over the next 1-2 years or as trade bait.
As long as A-roid is on the team Yankees will choke.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 08, 2009, 10:04:31 PM
Quote from: stjaba on April 08, 2009, 04:57:10 PM
True, but even the O's are getting better. They have a decent amount of offensive talent(Markakis, Roberts, Huff, etc.) with more on the way(Wieters).
The Yanks are going to be good this year, but they're definitely on the decline.
You can't talk about the Yankee hitters being in decline and then cite to Huff as a reliable offensive talent. He can't be expected to continue at the level he hit last year.
Well besides Huff, the O's talent is young, meaning they are close to peaking, or peaking. Though Huff is kind of old(32) he's younger than most of the key players on the Yankees. And last year wasn't his first good year. If you go by OPS+, he actually has had 2 other years that were equal or better. He did struggle in 07 and 06, but I think 08 is a better representation of his talent. His best years were with Tampa Bay in the AL East, and now that he's back in this division I think he will thrive. Finally, he plays a position that isn't as stressful on his body compared to players like A-Rod, Jeter, or Posada. He will "age" better.
Let's look at the Yanks lineup:
Jeter: Good offensively, is league worst defensively. Is 35, and shortstops typically do not age well.
Damon: Had a good year last year after a mediocre ones. Is also 35, almost quit the game last year.
Teixeira: Obviously a talent all around. Not the best 1B in the game, but one of the best. Is 29.
Matsui: Has battled different injuries over the years, is also 35.
Posada: Battled injuries last year is 37. Catchers usually don't age too well either.
Cano: Is young, talented, but prone to streaks and crappy OPB. Is 26
Nady: Pretty good, not sure if he's a long term solution. Has had 1 really good year. 30
Ransom: Is no A-Rod, that's for sure. 33
Gardner: Pretty decent, nothing special. 25
There are good names in this lineup, but the problem is that this team is old. The average age is 32, with key players from the past being the oldest. As they get older every year, more and more injuries are inevitable, aside from the decline in ability that happens when ballplayers get older. And the Yankees don't have the depth to overcome injuries. Prime example: Posada's injury last year, A-Rod right now. I remember last year watching the Rays pitchers killing the Yanks with fastballs. A few years ago, the Yankees would have eaten up those pitches, but now guys like Damon don't have the bat speed like they used to.
QuoteAs for Arod - you can't have it both ways. Either he has been off the PEDs since he said he went off (in which case he is perfectly capable of MVP level performances without them) or he has figured out a way to beat the system and hence can continue to benefit from them. All the projections I've seen him have him as a cinch to hit 700 and with a decent (30+%) chance at catching Bonds. That is plenty good enough.
My point with A-Rod is that he will decline with age. PEDs have masked other player's declines(think Roger Clemens to Rafael Palmerio) I'm not a doctor, but I suspect that PEDs are more beneficial to older players than younger players. As A-Rod gets older, I think he will decline faster than what we're used to.
QuoteFinally there is no binary choice between the "free agent approach" and the "youth approach". Theo does both. Its just a question of how you do it. The statgeek wisdom on free agents is that you go after the grade A guys with good health track records. The Yankees hit 2 out of 3 on that basis. CC and Tex are still pretty young guys and Tex bolsters the infield defense.
True, but I don't think Cashman is smart at it as Theo. Boston's (and Tampa Bay's)offseason was far less risky than New York's. I think it's plainly obvious that long term contracts like those given to Sabathia and Tex are fairly risky. They've killed the Yankees in the past. New York can have all the money in the world, but it won't buy them championships in today's game. It's not a coincidence that that most teams have shied away from them. Also, I'm a little skeptical about the CC signing. Last year was pretty stressful on his arm. Plus the fact he's extremely fat. I do agree that Tex was a good signing.
I'm not saying the Yanks will be awful this year. But in the next few years as the team ages, I think we're going to see more years like 2008 or worse, which would be fine if the Yankees were in a different division, but they're in the AL East.
Re: A-Rod. This article claims he has a 30% chance of passing Bonds. Is that really worth the $30 million per year he will be making? His contract is going to turn into a huge anchor on the Yankees if he doesn't keep up his current performance.
Quote
Here's the article about the odds of him getting the record:
QuoteWe're less than two years removed from Barry Bonds' somber, strange and soulless quest to break Henry Aaron's lifetime home run record. It was a spectacle most sports fans -- even the few like me who were relatively sympathetic toward Bonds' plight -- would go to great lengths to avoid experiencing again.
Unfortunately, it seems history is getting ready to repeat itself. Alex Rodriguez already has hit 553 home runs, by far the most for a player who just completed his age-32 season. He needs only 203 more to surpass Aaron and 210 to best Bonds. Rodriguez has hit an average of 42 home runs per season since joining the New York Yankees in 2003. If he maintains that pace, he'll overtake Bonds' mark on the last day of the 2013 season. And he seems to have plenty of time to spare, being under contract with the Yankees through 2017.
But player haters can rejoice: Rodriguez's breaking the career home run record is nowhere near the foregone conclusion it appears to be. The reason boils down to that fine print you ignored when you invested your daughter's college fund in Citibank stock a few years ago: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Rodriguez certainly has been among the best players in baseball over the past couple of years. And chemically enhanced or not, there are a lot of indicators that ordinarily would be favorable toward his continuing to perform well. Among them:
All-around athleticism. Rodriguez is far from a one-dimensional player. At an age when most guys refrain from challenging themselves on the basepaths, he still averages about 20 stolen bases a year. He plays a fairly difficult defensive position and plays it pretty well. He is a complete hitter, able to draw walks and hit for average as well as aim for the fences. Multidimensional players, generally speaking, age better than unidimensional ones.
The Benjamin Button Principle. This is the concept that the beginning of a player's life sometimes resembles the end -- guys who start their careers with a bang sometimes tend to end it that way. Rodriguez, who arguably was already the best player in baseball by the age of 20, started his career like few others in history; he has a better-than-usual chance of finishing it that way.
Perverse Incentives, Part I. Rodriguez stands to make a $30 million bonus if he breaks the all-time home run record. If he gets close, those are 30 million reasons for him to extend his career until he does, rather than consider early retirement.
On the other hand, another set of indicators implies uncertainty in Rodriguez's future:
The aging curve. The steepest part of the aging curve -- when a hitter experiences the most decline in his abilities -- tends to come between ages 32 and 34. Rodriguez, who turned 33 this past July, now is about halfway through that period. And he hasn't come away completely unscathed. He hit 30 home runs in the first half of the 2007 season and 24 in the second half, then 19 home runs in the first half of the 2008 season but 16 after the break. That could be just a fluke -- or it could mean he has started on a fairly steep downward trajectory.
Injury risk. Although Rodriguez generally has been the picture of health, that trend somewhat reversed itself in 2008, when he missed 24 games, the most in any season since 1999. Injury problems sometimes can be compounding, especially when a player reaches his mid-30s. There also is some anecdotal evidence that players who have experimented with steroids are more inclined to have chronic injury problems.
Perverse Incentives, Part II. Unless he was investing with Bernie Madoff, Rodriguez already has all the money he'll need for life, and it's highly unlikely he'll ever be on the market again. Most of us, given a guaranteed salary for the next nine years that requires us to do nothing other than show up and put on a uniform, might become somewhat lackadaisical in our work habits. Many professional athletes are different -- but others aren't.
The favorable and unfavorable indicators are reflected to some degree in Rodriguez's series of PECOTA comparables. His list includes many Hall of Famers, such as Dave Winfield, George Brett, Frank Robinson, Reggie Jackson, Tony Perez and Hank Aaron himself, who were elite athletes late into their 30s or even their early 40s.
But it also includes some other players whose careers did not end all that gracefully. First are the guys who succumbed to injury, like Jeff Bagwell and Albert Belle. Next are a couple of players who, like Rodriguez, were known or suspected to use performance-enhancing drugs: Sammy Sosa is A-Rod's No. 1 comparable, for instance, and Ken Caminiti his No. 4. Finally, there are players like Ryne Sandberg whose skills simply atrophied sooner or more suddenly than expected.
I took Rodriguez's top 20 PECOTA-comparable players and averaged their performances over each remaining season of their careers. Actually, the process was a little more complicated than that (each comparable's performance was adjusted for his park and league context, as well as his previous track record, and we had to make an accommodation for guys like Manny Ramirez who made A-Rod's comparables list but have yet to conclude their own careers). But the basic idea is simple: Comparables like Frank Robinson, who aged well, have a favorable effect on Rodriguez's forecast, and players like Caminini just the opposite one.
PECOTA's best guess is that Rodriguez will finish with 730 lifetime home runs, running out of steam after another three or four seasons and leaving him just shy of the marks established by Aaron and Bonds. Of course, there is a lot of uncertainty in this estimate. If Rodriguez follows the path charted by Aaron or Frank Robinson, he could finish with well in excess of 800 home runs (and possibly as many as 900). On the other hand, if he draws Albert Belle's ping-pong ball, he might not top 600. Overall, the system puts Rodriguez's chances of surpassing Aaron at only about four in 10 and of surpassing Bonds closer to three in 10.
One needs to remember the ways Aaron and Bonds finished out their careers were far from typical. At least as common are folks like Jimmie Foxx (before Rodriguez, the fastest player to 500 home runs), who hit just 34 home runs after turning 33. Only about a dozen players have hit 200 or more home runs from their age-33 seasons onward; Bonds and Aaron are the only two to have hit at least 300.
In other words, Rodriguez still has his work cut out for him if he wants to pass Bonds and Aaron. Say what you will about his past performance -- for him to get across the finish line still would represent a remarkable accomplishment.
2009 33 586
2010 30 616
2011 27 643
2012 25 668
2013 18 686
2014 16 702
2015 12 714
2016 8 722
2017 4 726
2018 3 729
2019 1 730
Quote from: stjaba on April 08, 2009, 04:17:30 PM
The Pirates have some good young talent, Pedro Alveraz, especially. They should be decent in the next few years.
Yeah, as their manager said, they want to build up the team "the right way", i.e. with a solid foundation. That's something I like about American pro sports - there's more long term planning involved. In European soccer, where a bad season can cost you millions or even break the club if you are sent down a league the sights are set a bit more short term for immediate success (well, at least in German Bundesliga).
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 08, 2009, 04:42:26 PM
Quote from: Berkut on April 06, 2009, 10:27:59 AM
I am now a Yankees fan.
One 9 year old boy cannot be wrong, especially when is my progeny.
Soon you will learn to bask happily in the reflected hate and envy of boosters of inferior teams like the Red Sox and Angels. Not to mention farcicial basket bases like the Orioles or the Pirates.
Nothing feels better than embracing the Dark Side.
Since 2001 the Red Sox have won two titles and the Angels one. The Yankees on the other hand have won none. :contract:
Shitty story to pass on.
QuoteAngels rookie Adenhart killed in hit-and-run crash
By GILLIAN FLACCUS, Associated Press Writer
13 minutes ago
ANAHEIM, Calif. (AP)—Los Angeles Angels rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart and two other people were killed Thursday when a minivan ran a red light and struck their sports car.
Adenhart, 22, died after undergoing surgery, University of California, Irvine Medical Center spokesman John Murray said.
A fourth person remained hospitalized in critical condition.
The Angels confirmed Adenhart’s death in a statement and said no other members of the Angels organization were involved in the accident.
“The Angels family has suffered a tremendous loss today. We are deeply saddened and shocked by this tragic loss. Our thoughts and prayers go out to Nick’s family, friends’ loved ones and fans,” general manager Tony Reagins said.
The team said Adenhart was survived by his parents, Jim and Janet.
“He lived his dream and was blessed to be part of an organization comprised of such warm, caring, and compassionate people,” the family said in a statement issued through the team.
“The Angels were his extended family. Thanks to all of Nick’s loyal supporters and fans throughout his career. He will always be in everyone’s hearts forever.”
Adenhart, of Silver Spring, Md., was the Angels’ No. 3 starter. He threw six scoreless innings in Wednesday night’s loss to Oakland in his fourth major-league start and first of the season.
Adenhart and three other people were in a silver Mitsubishi that was struck shortly before 12:30 a.m. by a minivan that ran a red light and also hit another vehicle, police said.
The sports car struck a light pole, killing three people inside.
Police Lt. Craig Brower said the minivan driver fled the crash scene and was captured a short time later. The driver was arrested and booked for investigation of felony hit-and-run.
Adenhart, a right-hander, earned a spot in the starting rotation on an injury-plagued Angels staff by impressing manager Mike Scioscia late in spring training.
The pitcher made his major league debut May 1 of last year, also against Oakland. He made two other starts, getting his only decision in a victory over the Chicago White Sox on May 12. He was 37-28 in the minor leagues from 2005-08, including 9-13 last year at Triple-A Salt Lake.
The Minnesota Twins held moment of silence before their game against the Seattle Mariners. Also, there was to be a moment of silence before the start of the Texas Rangers’ home game against the Cleveland Indians.
Just awful. :(
Quote from: stjaba on April 08, 2009, 11:09:41 PM
Let's look at the Yanks lineup:
Jeter: Good offensively, is league worst defensively. Is 35, and shortstops typically do not age well.
Damon: Had a good year last year after a mediocre ones. Is also 35, almost quit the game last year.
Teixeira: Obviously a talent all around. Not the best 1B in the game, but one of the best. Is 29.
Matsui: Has battled different injuries over the years, is also 35.
Posada: Battled injuries last year is 37. Catchers usually don't age too well either.
Cano: Is young, talented, but prone to streaks and crappy OPB. Is 26
Nady: Pretty good, not sure if he's a long term solution. Has had 1 really good year. 30
Ransom: Is no A-Rod, that's for sure. 33
Gardner: Pretty decent, nothing special. 25
Let's do the same with the Sox - Varitek is a 37 yr old catcher and a gaping wound in the lineup. Lowell came back to earth last year and is 35. Big Papi is 33 and coming out of a down year. JD Drew is also 33 and terribly injury prone. Bay is 31. Even Youk is past 30.
That leaves the youngsters which are Pedroia (magnificent), Ellsbury (who I think will end up being a solid regular but nothing more) and Lowrie (who I actually am high on but hasn't made a big impact in the majors yet).
It is a strong lineup overall but it isn't hard to imagine a scenario where by midyear, Drew is on the DL, Ortiz and Lowell & Bay are all hitting in the 260s and George Kottaras is having to play every day. Will that happen? Probably not - but its easy to make things look bad if you take the most pessimistic view about everyone.
QuoteHere's the article about the odds of him getting the record:
PECOTA is a perfectly decent projection system, but it is designed for single season projections, not career. And one of the problems with comp based projection system is that superstars cause them problems because they are often rather unique players with few true comps. The fact that Silver's system apparently weights Caminiti as a serious comp to Arod is a good illustration of that problem. No doubt it comps Gary Gaetti as well.
There are real examples of players with Arod's kind of profile falling off like that - Eddie Matthews and Ernie Banks spring to mind. But generally speaking, power is a skill that ages relatively well. Further injury is always a risk, but barring that the Silver projection looks extremely pessimistic.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 08, 2009, 04:42:26 PM
Not to mention farcicial basket bases like the Orioles or the Pirates.
The Orioles are 2-0 :contract:
Quote from: Valmy on April 09, 2009, 02:34:33 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 08, 2009, 04:42:26 PM
Not to mention farcicial basket bases like the Orioles or the Pirates.
The Orioles are 2-0 :contract:
The Orioles are famous for the April prowess. :contract:
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 09, 2009, 02:57:09 PM
The Orioles are famous for the April prowess. :contract:
They are?
Um...the Orioles went 1-22 in April once, the worst month in Major League history. Or maybe that is the sort of prowess you are referring to :P
Quote from: Valmy on April 09, 2009, 03:00:19 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 09, 2009, 02:57:09 PM
The Orioles are famous for the April prowess. :contract:
They are?
2008: they went 6-1 to start last year, and were in 1st for much of the month.
2007: they had a winning record in late April, before falling back below .500 the rest of the way.
2006: they had a winning record second to last day in April, 13-13 on the last. They lost 93 on the season.
2005: 16-7 in April, good for 1st place and a 4 game lead. Final season record: 74-88 :P
2004: 12-9 in April, and first place as late as April 23. Losing record on the year.
2003: 13-12 April. 71-91 for the year.
The 1-22 you refer to was in 1988. Ie 20 years ago. And they sucked every month that year; they lost 107 games.
I figured you all would pick up on the streak dating over the past 6 years in a row, as opposed to 1988. ;)
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 09, 2009, 03:15:41 PM
I figured you all would pick up on the streak dating over the past 6 years in a row, as opposed to 1988. ;)
Somehow that streak left a much bigger impression on me then them going 13-13 in 2006.
Quote from: Valmy on April 09, 2009, 03:17:38 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 09, 2009, 03:15:41 PM
I figured you all would pick up on the streak dating over the past 6 years in a row, as opposed to 1988. ;)
Somehow that streak left a much bigger impression on me then them going 13-13 in 2006.
It's the Orioles. 13-13 is a real achievement. :)
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 09, 2009, 02:27:47 PM
Let's do the same with the Sox - Varitek is a 37 yr old catcher and a gaping wound in the lineup. Lowell came back to earth last year and is 35. Big Papi is 33 and coming out of a down year. JD Drew is also 33 and terribly injury prone. Bay is 31. Even Youk is past 30.
That leaves the youngsters which are Pedroia (magnificent), Ellsbury (who I think will end up being a solid regular but nothing more) and Lowrie (who I actually am high on but hasn't made a big impact in the majors yet).
It is a strong lineup overall but it isn't hard to imagine a scenario where by midyear, Drew is on the DL, Ortiz and Lowell & Bay are all hitting in the 260s and George Kottaras is having to play every day. Will that happen? Probably not - but its easy to make things look bad if you take the most pessimistic view about everyone.
I'm not being pessimestic, just pointing out that decline is inevitable. Also, since when we are talking about the BoSox? I thought the original comparison was to Baltimore, who FYI are projected to be 2nd in the league in Runs Scored, behind Boston. As for Boston, they ended up being fine last year with all the off years they had. Your points are valid, but Boston isn't quite as old as New York, and defensively is superior. I also have more trust in Boston's front office to patch up holes than I do in New York's.
Quote
There are real examples of players with Arod's kind of profile falling off like that - Eddie Matthews and Ernie Banks spring to mind. But generally speaking, power is a skill that ages relatively well. Further injury is always a risk, but barring that the Silver projection looks extremely pessimistic.
Maybe, but I still think A-Rod's contract is ridiculous. His power may not erode, but eventually he's going to be liability defensively or will have to DH. Even if he reaches the record, he isn't going to performing at 2007-2008 like levels.
Besides, this analysis ignores his clubhouse presence. If you don't think that's important, explain to me why Barry Bonds doesn't have a contract, or why Manny was traded last year.
Quote from: stjaba on April 09, 2009, 03:18:49 PM
[Maybe, but I still think A-Rod's contract is ridiculous. His power may not erode, but eventually he's going to be liability defensively or will DH. Even if he reaches the record, he isn't going to performing at 2007-2008 like levels.
All true. :(
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 09, 2009, 03:18:39 PM
It's the Orioles. 13-13 is a real achievement. :)
Even for the Orioles going 1-22 is a much more memorable achievement.
Doing something legendarily bad that stains the club forever in April sort of cancels out any legendary prowess the Os might have shown going .500 or a couple games over the past couple of years.
My main concern with the Orioles is their pitching. Any team that uses Mark Hendrickson is doomed to be awful. They're going to score a lot of runs, but will give up way more. They have pitching on the way in the minors, so they will improve in the next few years.
Quote from: stjaba on April 09, 2009, 03:26:32 PM
My main concern with the Orioles is their pitching. Any team that uses Mark Hendrickson is doomed to be awful. They're going to score a lot of runs, but will give up way more. They have pitching on the way in the minors, so they will improve in the next few years.
Oh they will be awful no doubt, as any club owned by Peter Angelos is destined to be. Typically the depraved fans of the Evil Empire cannot even stomach seeing Os fans enjoy a 2-0 start.
Quote from: katmai on April 09, 2009, 12:27:32 PM
Shitty story to pass on.
Angels rookie Adenhart killed in hit-and-run crash
The driver of the minivan was drunk and had a suspended license. :angry:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/30138675#30138675
Quote from: Valmy on April 09, 2009, 02:34:33 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 08, 2009, 04:42:26 PM
Not to mention farcicial basket bases like the Orioles or the Pirates.
The Orioles are 2-0 :contract:
In a league with that many games, a good start, or even a good first month, means less than nothing.
Quote from: Neil on April 09, 2009, 03:49:40 PM
In a league with that many games, a good start, or even a good first month, means less than nothing.
Man you guys are really a buzz kill. <_<
Anyway they are 2-1 now.
Quote from: Valmy on April 09, 2009, 03:20:10 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 09, 2009, 03:18:39 PM
It's the Orioles. 13-13 is a real achievement. :)
Even for the Orioles going 1-22 is a much more memorable achievement.
Doing something legendarily bad that stains the club forever in April sort of cancels out any legendary prowess the Os might have shown going .500 or a couple games over the past couple of years.
Dude, that was 20 years ago. People don't even remember how bad the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were anymore.
Guy who killed Adenhart will be charged with 3 counts of murder.
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/30136766/
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 10, 2009, 05:36:13 AM
Dude, that was 20 years ago. People don't even remember how bad the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were anymore.
Honestly it did not seem that long ago. :blush:
I am getting: old. :(
I'm going to see my first game of the year tomorrow. One of the Bungles owners gave my brother a couple tickets in the outrageously-priced Diamond seats (~$230 a pop) right behind home plate. I hear it's like an open bar & all you can eat buffet delivered right to your seat :punk:
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2009, 05:11:46 AM
This year, the competitive team I will root for will be: the LA Dodgers. What about you?
Cubs. Always Cubs. Never glory. :(
Quote from: fahdiz on April 10, 2009, 03:32:48 PM
Cubs. Always Cubs. Never glory. :(
These are the saddest of possible words:
"Tinker to Evers to Chance."
Trio of bear cubs, and fleeter than birds,
Tinker and Evers and Chance.
Ruthlessly pricking our gonfalon bubble,
Making a Giant hit into a double --
Words that are heavy with nothing but trouble:
"Tinker to Evers to Chance."
Quote from: fahdiz on April 10, 2009, 03:32:48 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2009, 05:11:46 AM
This year, the competitive team I will root for will be: the LA Dodgers. What about you?
Cubs. Always Cubs. Never glory. :(
In the Ken Burn's documentary "Baseball" he interviews George Will. Will said that where he grew up in Illinois the population is split between Cubs and Cardinals fans. All his childhood friends were Cardinals fans and grew up to be happy and liberal. He was a Cubs fan and grew up to be bitter and conservative.
Quote from: fahdiz on April 10, 2009, 03:32:48 PM
Cubs. Always Cubs. Never glory. :(
I suggest finding a different team :contract:
Quote from: derspiess on April 10, 2009, 03:37:39 PM
I suggest finding a different team :contract:
There is plenty of space on the Oriole bandwagon!
Quote from: derspiess on April 10, 2009, 03:37:39 PM
I suggest finding a different team :contract:
I can't. :( If I had to pick a second team it'd be Seattle, but...meh. It just doesn't feel the same.
Grandslam followed by another homer by the Buccos at Cincinatti in the 9th. :lol: Score: 10-1 top of the 9th.
EDIT: And they finish with a double play at 10-2. ^_^
A Nursing Home softball team could beat the Reds.
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 11, 2009, 03:04:34 PM
A Nursing Home softball team could beat the Reds.
Yes, the Pirates. :blush:
Harry Kalas & Mark "the Bird" Fidrych both died today. :cry:
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 13, 2009, 05:03:19 PM
Harry Kalas & Mark "the Bird" Fidrych both died today. :cry:
I heard about Kalas, what happened to Fidrych?
Quote from: sbr on April 13, 2009, 05:15:09 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 13, 2009, 05:03:19 PM
Harry Kalas & Mark "the Bird" Fidrych both died today. :cry:
I heard about Kalas, what happened to Fidrych?
Accident
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4065778
Damn, first Marylin Chambers, now the Bird. :(
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 11, 2009, 03:04:34 PM
A Nursing Home softball team could beat the Reds.
I'll say this for Cincinnati, though. Even at their most apathetic, people still know their team & the game. It's not as much a baseball city as, oh, St. Louis, but it is one of the few places you'll see large numbers of women not only voluntarily attend, but even go to the trouble of keeping score. Last 3 or 4 games I've been to, there's been a chick in the row in front of me keeping score on the score card. Never saw that anywhere else, not even St. Louis, come to think of it.
Quote from: derspiess on April 13, 2009, 06:42:30 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 11, 2009, 03:04:34 PM
A Nursing Home softball team could beat the Reds.
I'll say this for Cincinnati, though. Even at their most apathetic, people still know their team & the game. It's not as much a baseball city as, oh, St. Louis, but it is one of the few places you'll see large numbers of women not only voluntarily attend, but even go to the trouble of keeping score. Last 3 or 4 games I've been to, there's been a chick in the row in front of me keeping score on the score card. Never saw that anywhere else, not even St. Louis, come to think of it.
You have to be rabid for the Reds, because the bengals suck so much.
Btw, today is Pete Rose's birthday. Charlie Hustle is now 68 years young :D
Hey Sweetass!
Was you still looking for Stat baseball games? Lance Haffner is still kicking after all these years.
http://www.lhgames.com/
Although the site looks a bit weedy and abandoned now.
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 14, 2009, 02:17:54 PM
Hey Sweetass!
Was you still looking for Stat baseball games? Lance Haffner is still kicking after all these years.
http://www.lhgames.com/
Although the site looks a bit weedy and abandoned now.
Thanks, but I'm nicely covered by OOTP (waiting for the release of V10 <_< ).
Still looking for a decent Football one, though, but that can wait till the season starts again. ;) Any link to reviews?
Quote from: Syt on April 14, 2009, 02:23:53 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 14, 2009, 02:17:54 PM
Hey Sweetass!
Was you still looking for Stat baseball games? Lance Haffner is still kicking after all these years.
http://www.lhgames.com/
Although the site looks a bit weedy and abandoned now.
Thanks, but I'm nicely covered by OOTP (waiting for the release of V10 <_< ).
Still looking for a decent Football one, though, but that can wait till the season starts again. ;) Any link to reviews?
No idea. Only reason I mentioned Lance Haffner was that somebody mentioned him on another site, and I had a bit of C-64 nostalgia hit me.
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 14, 2009, 02:27:22 PM
No idea. Only reason I mentioned Lance Haffner was that somebody mentioned him on another site, and I had a bit of C-64 nostalgia hit me.
Well, it appears his approach/site/games are a bit, uhm, aged ... ;)
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 14, 2009, 02:17:54 PM
Hey Sweetass!
Was you still looking for Stat baseball games? Lance Haffner is still kicking after all these years.
http://www.lhgames.com/
Although the site looks a bit weedy and abandoned now.
Now that's a name I hadn't heard in ages. My brother, his friends & I had college football leagues back in the 80s :nerd:
Hadn't heard of him before. For C64 I had "4th & Inches" (bought as part of an Accolade bundle) and "Super Sunday" (as copy).
Quote from: Syt on April 14, 2009, 02:23:53 PM
Thanks, but I'm nicely covered by OOTP (waiting for the release of V10 <_< ).
Still looking for a decent Football one, though, but that can wait till the season starts again. ;) Any link to reviews?
I hadn't heard of the OOTP games before but they look like a wet dream of mine; I got to the point where I would get Madden and the Baseball video games and never play the actual games, just manage the teams and rosters.
Are they good? Is there a Demo out there anywhere?
Quote from: sbr on April 15, 2009, 03:15:55 AM
Quote from: Syt on April 14, 2009, 02:23:53 PM
Thanks, but I'm nicely covered by OOTP (waiting for the release of V10 <_< ).
Still looking for a decent Football one, though, but that can wait till the season starts again. ;) Any link to reviews?
I hadn't heard of the OOTP games before but they look like a wet dream of mine; I got to the point where I would get Madden and the Baseball video games and never play the actual games, just manage the teams and rosters.
Are they good? Is there a Demo out there anywhere?
You can download it and play a month (or a season? I forget) as demo, I think. Baseball Mogul 2010 is also freshly out. It's a bit more accessible and lightweight than OOTP, but it lets you play one full season as demo, I think. If you decide for OOTP you may want to consider pre-ordering OOTP10 (for 30 €/$ at the moment), it should be out within a month or so.
Quote from: Berkut on April 06, 2009, 10:27:59 AM
I am now a Yankees fan.
One 9 year old boy cannot be wrong, especially when is my progeny.
How is it working out so far? ;)
Quote from: Syt on April 19, 2009, 11:10:51 AM
Quote from: Berkut on April 06, 2009, 10:27:59 AM
I am now a Yankees fan.
One 9 year old boy cannot be wrong, especially when is my progeny.
How is it working out so far? ;)
:lol: 22-4
Washington Nationals = fail
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fvoices.washingtonpost.com%2Fdcsportsbog%2Fwashingtonnatinals.jpg&hash=26e0d8225084280bf71c0ce9d687dc98b874e1a8)
Quote from: Syt on April 19, 2009, 11:10:51 AM
Quote from: Berkut on April 06, 2009, 10:27:59 AM
I am now a Yankees fan.
One 9 year old boy cannot be wrong, especially when is my progeny.
How is it working out so far? ;)
Ahead of the Red Sox. Not that that this is much of an accomplishment. :)
Batlimore's four game losing streak should put to rest any claim of April supremacy. <_<
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 20, 2009, 10:41:19 AM
Quote from: Syt on April 19, 2009, 11:10:51 AM
Quote from: Berkut on April 06, 2009, 10:27:59 AM
I am now a Yankees fan.
One 9 year old boy cannot be wrong, especially when is my progeny.
How is it working out so far? ;)
Ahead of the Red Sox. Not that that this is much of an accomplishment. :)
Speaking of which, the thing I like best about MLB is coming home after work and catching a morning game (Bal@Bos) on ESPN America. With the morning/mid day games it's a friendly sport for Euros to follow. :)
Pirates went 3-0 in their series against the Marlins and are at 9-6 total. I am: cautiously optimistic about this season ending positive (if the pitching stays as it is).
Quote from: Syt on April 22, 2009, 03:22:25 PM
Pirates went 3-0 in their series against the Marlins and are at 9-6 total. I am: cautiously optimistic about this season ending positive (if the pitching stays as it is).
No! Do not be swept up by April dreams! It is the path to disillusionment and dispair!
But it's all I'll have. :weep: