Amateur spies wannabes try to sell US Navy nuclear submarine propulsion secrets to an ally of the US, very probably France.
France then informs the FBI. Fast forward a few months: AUKUS.
A Tale Of Two Countries.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/10/jonathan-diana-toebbe-spy-trial-espionage.html
Fair play to France.
That is a seriously shit article. The authors evidence that it was France is:
QuoteFinally, there is this bit from a letter Toebbe sent to his contact:
"Thank you for your partnership as well, my friend. One day, when it is safe, perhaps two old friends will have a chance to stumble into each other at a café, share a bottle of wine, and laugh over stories of their shared exploits. A fine thought, but I agree that our mutual need for security may make that impossible. Whether we meet or no, I will always remember your bravery in serving your country and your commitment to helping me."
Leaving aside for a moment the pitiful naïveté that this letter conveys in retrospect, where might the daydreaming Toebbe envision such a future run-in to take place? The wine, the café—it could be anywhere, but sounds a lot like a wannabe spy's vision of post-heist life in Paris.
Fair play? Please.
Could it have been France? I suppose. This article makes no serious claim that it is, and the only reason the author makes the claim is so he can then tortuously imagine that if France had gone along, why, they could have maybe saved that deal with Australia!
How does that make any fucking sense to anyone? Even you Zoupa?
Talk about a perfect example of total cognitive dissonance. That article is trash, and is obviously trash. I can't believe it fooled you two.
:lol:
I love how you attack the messenger and the article instead of addressing the actual meat and potatoes of the story, while still managing to make yourself seem smart AND condescending.
I salute you. A true Languish post.
Yeah, the article is shit. The nation contacted is far more likely to be Israel, based on their long loyalty to Jonathon Pollard, who stole secrets for them in the 1980s, and whom the Israelis were constantly trying to get released from prison. They paid Pollard very well while he worked for them, and welcomed Pollard when he finally was released.
I don't know of any equivalent French treatment of American traitors. If I were going to betray the US to an ally for money, it would be Israel, just based on their good PR for treason.
There is no meat or potatoes in that story.
Seriously, did you even read it?
It really is amazing how if you tell some people something they want to be true, they will absolutely buy any kind of ridiculousness.
Oh, and another reason to think it to be Israel: France might be interested enough to go along, while Israel was still smarting from the spanking they took over Pollard. The Israelis had self-interest reasons to give up Toebbe, but their evaluation of those interests would take time (and the ally didn't out Toebbe for seven months). France wouldn't have taken seven months to decide. They'd have outed Toebbe very quickly.
Here are 2 more articles, on from the Guardian, the other from Politico. They both suggest France.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/oct/17/jonathan-diana-toebbe-west-virginia-couple-accused-spies
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/20/feds-maryland-couple-charged-selling-nuclear-secrets-516396
QuoteIt really is amazing how if you tell some people something they want to be true, they will absolutely buy any kind of ridiculousness.
There there. You can't win them all Berky-poo.
I thought I posted that I'm willing to add "... if it in fact was France" to my statement.
Maybe I posted that in a different thread?
Too late Jacob. You got fooled by the shit article, just like I did.
Just admit it and repent.
Quote from: Zoupa on October 22, 2021, 04:20:34 PM
Too late Jacob. You got fooled by the shit article, just like I did.
Just admit it and repent.
*gallic shrug* :frog:
Quote from: Zoupa on October 22, 2021, 04:16:11 PM
Here are 2 more articles, on from the Guardian, the other from Politico. They both suggest France.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/oct/17/jonathan-diana-toebbe-west-virginia-couple-accused-spies
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/20/feds-maryland-couple-charged-selling-nuclear-secrets-516396
QuoteIt really is amazing how if you tell some people something they want to be true, they will absolutely buy any kind of ridiculousness.
There there. You can't win them all Berky-poo.
None of those reports provide even the slightest evidence that "country1" was France. Interesting that they all ignore the elephant in the room.
I wrote "suggest", not "provide evidence". It might turn out to be Zimbabwe, that's not my point.
There are certain ways or etiquette that is generally agreed upon when dealing with allies or their military technology. This story was just a nice reminder of that.
Quote from: Zoupa on October 22, 2021, 04:37:39 PM
I wrote "suggest", not "provide evidence". It might turn out to be Zimbabwe, that's not my point.
There are certain ways or etiquette that is generally agreed upon when dealing with allies or their military technology. This story was just a nice reminder of that.
It added nothing to what we know about etiquette when dealing with allies, and instead just fed you some outrage which you lapped right up.
And indeed, France could definitely use some work on how they treat their allies, for sure. I don't think you really want to go down that in any kind of objective manner.
For example, they probably should not try to extort tens of billions from them and reneg on their contractual obligations so they can squeeze out of few more bucks from them. As an example.
Quote from: Zoupa on October 22, 2021, 04:37:39 PM
I wrote "suggest", not "provide evidence". It might turn out to be Zimbabwe, that's not my point.
There are certain ways or etiquette that is generally agreed upon when dealing with allies or their military technology. This story was just a nice reminder of that.
It could turn out to be France, and it would still be a shit article that you fell for, hook, line, and sinker.
QuoteSo let's say it's France. If French officials cooperated with the FBI on this matter, it must have been particularly galling when the Biden administration then struck a deal to share nuclear technology with Australia, thus squelching a contract that France had negotiated long ago. This is the same nuclear technology that the Toebbes thought they were providing to France. If France had taken the Toebbes up on their offer, it might have been able to save the contract with Australia. Instead, the French notified the FBI—and for their trouble, they got screwed. This may be the backstory on why French President Emmanuel Macron was particularly peeved.
They seem to know a lot about this spy case but they don't seem very well informed about the troubles of the French /Australian deal.
And I say this as somebody who has only skimmed that saga.
Quote from: Tyr on October 22, 2021, 05:04:52 PM
QuoteSo let's say it's France. If French officials cooperated with the FBI on this matter, it must have been particularly galling when the Biden administration then struck a deal to share nuclear technology with Australia, thus squelching a contract that France had negotiated long ago. This is the same nuclear technology that the Toebbes thought they were providing to France. If France had taken the Toebbes up on their offer, it might have been able to save the contract with Australia. Instead, the French notified the FBI—and for their trouble, they got screwed. This may be the backstory on why French President Emmanuel Macron was particularly peeved.
They seem to know a lot about this spy case but they don't seem very well informed about the troubles of the French /Australian deal.
And I say this as somebody who has only skimmed that saga.
They definitely could have saved the Australia deal, but sacrificed it for the greater good of co Franco-American cooperation. Because that is just what France does!
The linked articles set forth a plausible case that COUNTRY1 is France. However, a key premise in the Guardian article is that the universe of prospects consist of countries that already deploy nuclear subs, as opposed to countries that are seeking or considering such a capability.
It has also been disclosed that Toebbe wrote a letter stating: "Please have your experts examine the documents. I think they would agree that your country's attempt to develop a [redacted] would be greatly aided."
My question is this: if France is COUNTRY1, then what was the redacted word or phrase?
This shit is really delicious.
QuoteIn April 2020, Jonathan Toebbe sent a letter to a foreign government—which the complaint refers to as "Country1," but it seems to be France (for reasons I'll explain later)—containing some fairly routine manuals on the nuclear propulsion system of the U.S. Navy's Virginia-class submarine and promising much more if the recipient sent him a down payment.
That's already where he went wrong. In December (it's unclear why this took so long), the foreign government turned over the package to the FBI,
It is unclear why it took so long.
If this was France, I wonder why it took them seven months to decide to be such stand up allies, and let the US know about this?
Could it be because, I don't know...it took them that long to vet the information and decide that there was nothing that useful to actually learn from this low level scrub?
Hard to say, but I would surmise that there is better reason to believe that handy interpretation then to hang your hat on it must be France because, you know, the guy wanted to have a glass of wine, and we all know that Paris is the best place for that!
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 22, 2021, 05:31:46 PM
The linked articles set forth a plausible case that COUNTRY1 is France. However, a key premise in the Guardian article is that the universe of prospects consist of countries that already deploy nuclear subs, as opposed to countries that are seeking or considering such a capability.
It has also been disclosed that Toebbe wrote a letter stating: "Please have your experts examine the documents. I think they would agree that your country's attempt to develop a [redacted] would be greatly aided."
My question is this: if France is COUNTRY1, then what was the redacted word or phrase?
[spoiler]"a 'Hunt for Red October'-like super fast nuclear propulsion system." [/spoiler]
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 22, 2021, 05:31:46 PM
The linked articles set forth a plausible case that COUNTRY1 is France. However, a key premise in the Guardian article is that the universe of prospects consist of countries that already deploy nuclear subs, as opposed to countries that are seeking or considering such a capability.
It has also been disclosed that Toebbe wrote a letter stating: "Please have your experts examine the documents. I think they would agree that your country's attempt to develop a [redacted] would be greatly aided."
My question is this: if France is COUNTRY1, then what was the redacted word or phrase?
Unknown, but if the country is Israel, [redacted] is "nuclear powered submarine." I'm not completely sold on Israel even wanting some, but they'd certainly like to see plans for compact nuclear power plants, which they can't get openly because they are not part of the NPT.
Of course, if France is country1, then [redacted] might be "next generation nuclear reactor."
I'm not sure France is in the market for such, and just doubt that they'd take seven months to decide not to buy from this guy. I'm also not sure why Toebbe would think that France, already possessing this technology, would want more of it.
Quote from: Berkut on October 22, 2021, 05:03:19 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on October 22, 2021, 04:37:39 PM
I wrote "suggest", not "provide evidence". It might turn out to be Zimbabwe, that's not my point.
There are certain ways or etiquette that is generally agreed upon when dealing with allies or their military technology. This story was just a nice reminder of that.
It could turn out to be France, and it would still be a shit article that you fell for, hook, line, and sinker.
It's ok. I know it's hard to deal with when you're confronted with how unreliable an ally your country has become. It goes against everything your tribe taught you growing up, so I understand when you lash out like this. Just remember to breathe through your outrage fit, don't give yourself an aneurysm. :console:
Quote from: Zoupa on October 22, 2021, 09:47:13 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 22, 2021, 05:03:19 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on October 22, 2021, 04:37:39 PM
I wrote "suggest", not "provide evidence". It might turn out to be Zimbabwe, that's not my point.
There are certain ways or etiquette that is generally agreed upon when dealing with allies or their military technology. This story was just a nice reminder of that.
It could turn out to be France, and it would still be a shit article that you fell for, hook, line, and sinker.
It's ok. I know it's hard to deal with when you're confronted with how unreliable an ally your country has become. It goes against everything your tribe taught you growing up, so I understand when you lash out like this. Just remember to breathe through your outrage fit, don't give yourself an aneurysm. :console:
LOL. You keep on being you Zoupa. Don't ever change.
Quote from: Zoupa on October 22, 2021, 09:47:13 PM
It's ok. I know it's hard to deal with when you're confronted with how unreliable an ally your country has become. It goes against everything your tribe taught you growing up, so I understand when you lash out like this. Just remember to breathe through your outrage fit, don't give yourself an aneurysm. :console:
:lol:
I love how you attack the messenger and his country instead of addressing the actual meat and potatoes of the post, while still managing to make yourself seem smart AND condescending.
I salute you. A true Languish post.
Even the article literally says "it could be anywhere" about the café and wine stuff.
Better luck next time.
Quote from: Berkut on October 22, 2021, 09:54:20 PM
LOL. You keep on being you Zoupa. Don't ever change.
With all due respect, Berkut, you're giving Zoupa an awful advice.
Quote from: DGuller on October 23, 2021, 09:57:15 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 22, 2021, 09:54:20 PM
LOL. You keep on being you Zoupa. Don't ever change.
With all due respect, Berkut, you're giving Zoupa an awful advice.
:pinch:
Quote from: Berkut on October 22, 2021, 05:18:50 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 22, 2021, 05:04:52 PM
QuoteSo let's say it's France. If French officials cooperated with the FBI on this matter, it must have been particularly galling when the Biden administration then struck a deal to share nuclear technology with Australia, thus squelching a contract that France had negotiated long ago. This is the same nuclear technology that the Toebbes thought they were providing to France. If France had taken the Toebbes up on their offer, it might have been able to save the contract with Australia. Instead, the French notified the FBI—and for their trouble, they got screwed. This may be the backstory on why French President Emmanuel Macron was particularly peeved.
They seem to know a lot about this spy case but they don't seem very well informed about the troubles of the French /Australian deal.
And I say this as somebody who has only skimmed that saga.
They definitely could have saved the Australia deal, but sacrificed it for the greater good of co Franco-American cooperation. Because that is just what France does!
My point is France already has nuclear technology and wasn't willing to sell it.
Its simply mad to think getting access to some American secrets would somehow change this.
Quote from: Tyr on October 23, 2021, 12:14:05 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 22, 2021, 05:18:50 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 22, 2021, 05:04:52 PM
QuoteSo let's say it's France. If French officials cooperated with the FBI on this matter, it must have been particularly galling when the Biden administration then struck a deal to share nuclear technology with Australia, thus squelching a contract that France had negotiated long ago. This is the same nuclear technology that the Toebbes thought they were providing to France. If France had taken the Toebbes up on their offer, it might have been able to save the contract with Australia. Instead, the French notified the FBI—and for their trouble, they got screwed. This may be the backstory on why French President Emmanuel Macron was particularly peeved.
They seem to know a lot about this spy case but they don't seem very well informed about the troubles of the French /Australian deal.
And I say this as somebody who has only skimmed that saga.
They definitely could have saved the Australia deal, but sacrificed it for the greater good of co Franco-American cooperation. Because that is just what France does!
My point is France already has nuclear technology and wasn't willing to sell it.
Its simply mad to think getting access to some American secrets would somehow change this.
I know.
The entire thing makes no sense, but it does give Zoupa a vague feeling of justifiable arrogance. It's very French of him.
It'll be pretty hilarious if it turns out it in fact was France in the end.
Quote from: Jacob on October 23, 2021, 02:17:15 PM
It'll be pretty hilarious if it turns out it in fact was France in the end.
Or Australia :ph34r:
Quote from: Jacob on October 23, 2021, 02:17:15 PM
It'll be pretty hilarious if it turns out it in fact was France in the end.
I'd certainly put France as my #2 suspect. Toebbe doesn't sound like the brightest bulb in the chandelier, so may have thought France wouldn't turn him in. Israel remains my #1, though.
Quote from: DGuller on October 23, 2021, 09:57:15 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 22, 2021, 09:54:20 PM
LOL. You keep on being you Zoupa. Don't ever change.
With all due respect, Berkut, you're giving Zoupa an awful advice.
:moon:
Quote from: Jacob on October 23, 2021, 02:17:15 PM
It'll be pretty hilarious if it turns out it in fact was France in the end.
It would but
QuoteI wrote "suggest", not "provide evidence". It might turn out to be Zimbabwe, that's not my point.
There are certain ways or etiquette that is generally agreed upon when dealing with allies or their military technology. This story was just a nice reminder of that
Fuck me for posting a general feel-good story I guess :D
Quote from: Jacob on October 23, 2021, 02:17:15 PM
It'll be pretty hilarious if it turns out it in fact was France in the end.
Not really. It's not like if it was France it somehow makes France look like some "good ally" anyway.
I think France is definitely in a list of countries that would make sense; but for reasons that undermine Zoupa's post. France has historically shown itself to not be all that loyal of an ally, and you could conceive of a scenario where France would happily take pilfered nuclear submarine reactor data, while it is unlikely France is going to dramatically redesign its extant reactors, having certain types of data could help them with designing their next generation reactors whenever they do design them. There is little evidence Toebbe actually was offering that level of information, though.
Like there are some countries like the United Kingdom who would almost certainly instantly contact us if someone tried to sell them pilfered nuclear data. There are then countries like Russia or India that would all but certainly actually buy the data. There are then countries like France and Israel who could conceivably go either way, based on past behavior, it's quite believable either country was country1, and quite believable either country would have declined the offer and ratted Toebbe out. It's also the case those countries are plausible simply because there's a chance either country might actually take the data had it been valuable.
All that being said, not a single bit of the reporting on this has demonstrated any hard evidence as to which country is "country1." Whichever country it is, also would not be getting a medal for "doing what allies are supposed to do", considering they sat on a serious espionage leak in our defense establishment for 7 months. A true ally would want those people caught immediately since there's no way to know what other, more nefarious country, with which they might be trying to do business.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 24, 2021, 09:47:55 AM
(snip)
Whichever country it is, also would not be getting a medal for "doing what allies are supposed to do", considering they sat on a serious espionage leak in our defense establishment for 7 months. A true ally would want those people caught immediately since there's no way to know what other, more nefarious country, with which they might be trying to do business.
Too true. If it was France and the headlines had been reversed, the Zoupas of the world would have gone absolutely apeshit that the US had waited seven months top tell France that it had a traitor in its midst. That is not what allies are supposed to do.
Time will tell whether Zoupa is wrong about France being country1, or whether he is wrong that France did what allies are supposed to do.
Wait, we are allied with France? I didn't think France had allies, only interests.
De Gaulle said that, but so did Kissinger. :sleep:
Quote from: Eddie Teach on October 24, 2021, 11:55:34 AM
De Gaulle said that, but so did Kissinger. :sleep:
"Nations have no friends, only interests." -Charles de Gaulle
They have allies, just not "friends."
This thread really reinforces NATO's obsolescence and the urgent need for European Defense. I guess Macron read the tea leaves earlier than I did.
Quote from: Zoupa on October 24, 2021, 05:42:29 PM
This thread really reinforces NATO's obsolescence and the urgent need for European Defense. I guess Macron read the tea leaves earlier than I did.
:lmfao: Yes, if your poor feelings get hurt, it reinforces "NATO's obsolescence!" Because NATO is all really about you, isn't it?
Another classic Languish Zoupa post.
I don't think my feelings have ever been hurt by discussing anything online :huh:
Posting on an internet forum would be a weird past-time if it did.
Writing responses as if you're in the person's head is strange. Alliances don't last forever; IMO the last 20 years have shown NATO's limitations, plus you're the ones always harping on the Pacific the Pacific the Pacific. Focus on that then *shrug*
Quote from: Zoupa on October 24, 2021, 05:42:29 PM
This thread really reinforces NATO's obsolescence and the urgent need for European Defense. I guess Macron read the tea leaves earlier than I did.
European Defense is a great idea, if only you could get the Europeans to go for it.
The French idea is is a European system led by France; the UK idea is a European system where British influence is decisive; the small countries want a committee system; Italy wants to free ride; and the German idea is a European system led by Russia.
Hard to reconcile.
:lol:
I'm all for handing European defense completely over to the Yuros.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 24, 2021, 08:19:52 PM
:lol:
I'm all for handing European defense completely over to the Yuros.
I think that would go a long way towards truly uniting Europe, as part of Russia.
I had no idea that the purpose of NATO was to sell submarines.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 24, 2021, 08:19:52 PM
:lol:
I'm all for handing European defense completely over to the Yuros.
Handing it over? I wasn't aware the EU had delegated that task to the USA. :unsure:
Quote from: DGuller on October 24, 2021, 08:52:43 PM
I think that would go a long way towards truly uniting Europe, as part of Russia.
A bit dramatic are we. It's been years and Russia hasn't even been able to hold eastern Ukraine. Somehow I think the EU can manage.
Quote from: Razgovory on October 25, 2021, 05:27:55 AM
I had no idea that the purpose of NATO was to sell submarines.
Australia is in NATO? :unsure:
Another classic Languish 'discussion'.
This is so french. :lol:
You have to hand it to Zoupa. He takes every French stereotype around international diplomacy and relationships and just cranks it right up to 11.
Quote from: Razgovory on October 24, 2021, 11:24:30 AM
Wait, we are allied with France? I didn't think France had allies, only interests.
That's the US ;) per Bill Clinton, during the Yougoslavia crisis, the 1st one.
That's why Switzerland cancelled its Rafale orders in favor of F-35 after a visit by Biden and some of his officials last summer.
Quote from: grumbler on October 23, 2021, 05:07:52 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 23, 2021, 02:17:15 PM
It'll be pretty hilarious if it turns out it in fact was France in the end.
I'd certainly put France as my #2 suspect. Toebbe doesn't sound like the brightest bulb in the chandelier, so may have thought France wouldn't turn him in. Israel remains my #1, though.
they said the letters were written in foreing language, or bad english (can't remember which). Isrealis speak perfect English. Most French do not. ;) :P
Quote from: Zoupa on October 25, 2021, 07:01:03 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 24, 2021, 08:19:52 PM
:lol:
I'm all for handing European defense completely over to the Yuros.
Handing it over? I wasn't aware the EU had delegated that task to the USA. :unsure:
C'mon. Let's be serious here. In the face of China and Russia, we all depend on the US firepower. Having a bunch of F-16s and F-35 and all the assortment of US air power at the ready in Germany is detterent enough for Russia.
Quote from: DGuller on October 24, 2021, 08:52:43 PM
I think that would go a long way towards truly uniting Europe, as part of Russia.
A bit dramatic are we. It's been years and Russia hasn't even been able to hold eastern Ukraine. Somehow I think the EU can manage.[/quote]
Ukraine is united against Russia, with help from NATO, in the form of military equipment and training.
Europe would be divided. The British would attack the French while the French invade Spain who would march on Catalonia while Italy is trying to regain a foothold in the Balkans. :P
No, seriously, I don't see Europe, as fragmented as it is, posing any kind of challenge to a serious military attack of any kind.
Quote from: Razgovory on October 25, 2021, 05:27:55 AM
I had no idea that the purpose of NATO was to sell submarines.
Australia is in NATO? :unsure:
[/quote]
it's a partner, but not a member-nation.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_48899.htm
Quote from: viper37 on October 25, 2021, 10:48:32 AM
That's why Switzerland cancelled its Rafale orders in favor of F-35 after a visit by Biden and some of his officials last summer.
Switzerland had no order in for Rafale fighters. Rafale was just one of the contenders. French anger, such as it was, was because they thought Switzerland had made up their minds ahead of time, and the Rafale negotiations were thus a sham.
Switzerland shouldn't be buying either of them anyway. The whole thing is ridiculous.
Quote from: viper37 on October 25, 2021, 10:50:32 AM
Quote from: grumbler on October 23, 2021, 05:07:52 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 23, 2021, 02:17:15 PM
It'll be pretty hilarious if it turns out it in fact was France in the end.
I'd certainly put France as my #2 suspect. Toebbe doesn't sound like the brightest bulb in the chandelier, so may have thought France wouldn't turn him in. Israel remains my #1, though.
they said the letters were written in foreing language, or bad english (can't remember which). Isrealis speak perfect English. Most French do not. ;) :P
Working with an Israeli company as a customer right now. I contest this statement :D
Quote from: Tyr on October 25, 2021, 11:23:49 AM
Switzerland shouldn't be buying either of them anyway.
They'll need them for defense against Burgundy; pikes won't cut it in the 21st century.
They're called cantons for a reason.
Quote from: The Brain on October 25, 2021, 11:57:08 AM
They're called cantons for a reason.
You think they're controlled by the Chinese?
Quote from: Berkut on October 25, 2021, 09:46:12 AM
You have to hand it to Zoupa. He takes every French stereotype around international diplomacy and relationships and just cranks it right up to 11.
What can I say? It's hard not to be smug when you're right all the time on the world stage. -_-
Quote from: HVC on October 25, 2021, 11:30:15 AM
Working with an Israeli company as a customer right now. I contest this statement :D
allright, tv gave me a bad impression :P
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 24, 2021, 07:13:47 PMand the German idea is a European system led by Russia.
This is a high quality comment.
Quote from: Zoupa on October 24, 2021, 05:42:29 PMThis thread really reinforces NATO's obsolescence and the urgent need for European Defense. I guess Macron read the tea leaves earlier than I did.
There are some real gems in this thread.
Oh and also:
AUKUS is dumb and should be scrapped, says retired Royal Australian Navy rear admiral (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/11/aukus-ssn-submarine-program-plan-b-australia-uk-us-trump-alliance)
Are you tired of all the winning yet, yanks?
Aussies mist be really happy with Aukus right now.
But they have to stay allied to the US, no-one else is going to help them when commie China comes for them.
Quote from: Threviel on March 11, 2025, 08:17:46 AMAussies mist be really happy with Aukus right now.
But they have to stay allied to the US, no-one else is going to help them when commie China comes for them.
Indonesia,Malaysia, Thailand and India might be of interest as they're all potential targets for the Chinese Co-Prosperity Sphere
Aukus is indeed looking iffy now.
But the previous French deal was crap too from what I understand. Paying way over the odds for subs that would be outdated as soon as they launched.
Quote from: Zoupa on March 11, 2025, 01:51:13 AMAre you tired of all the winning yet, yanks?
Very tired.
And I have several more years left at least.
Quote from: Valmy on March 11, 2025, 08:50:41 AMQuote from: Zoupa on March 11, 2025, 01:51:13 AMAre you tired of all the winning yet, yanks?
Very tired.
And I have several more years left at least.
Hang in there Valmy. Even the reign of terror came to an end. :)
Quote from: Valmy on March 11, 2025, 08:50:41 AMQuote from: Zoupa on March 11, 2025, 01:51:13 AMAre you tired of all the winning yet, yanks?
Very tired.
And I have several more years left at least.
It's good that you have hope that you only have years left :console:
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on March 11, 2025, 08:26:58 AMQuote from: Threviel on March 11, 2025, 08:17:46 AMAussies mist be really happy with Aukus right now.
But they have to stay allied to the US, no-one else is going to help them when commie China comes for them.
Indonesia,Malaysia, Thailand and India might be of interest as they're all potential targets for the Chinese Co-Prosperity Sphere
Philippines, NZ, South Korea, Japan and China also, but except for India all of them together have no chance in the short or medium run and it's very unclear if India could handle a conflict with the commies. In the long run commie China is fucked due to demographics like the rest of us.
China has some real challenges ahead of them: demographic collapse, corruption, middle income trap (I think).
However, compared to several other actors they have the advantages of being a unified and large country, and having relatively competent leadership. There's some risk on the leadership falling into the trap of authoritarian regimes (making poor decisions), but it doesn't seem that high at the moment.
Previously, one of the risks to China was that the shine was beginning to wear off "the Chinese model", leading to a potential worsening relationships and opportunities for the Chinese globally, but thanks to Trump China seems pretty stable and attractive now.
The destruction of American aid opens huge opportunities for China too.
They really did seem to have hit a wall and be in decline but now... The future is theirs again.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 24, 2021, 07:13:47 PMEuropean Defense is a great idea, if only you could get the Europeans to go for it.
The French idea is is a European system led by France; the UK idea is a European system where British influence is decisive; the small countries want a committee system; Italy wants to free ride; and the German idea is a European system led by Russia.
I'd stand by this c. 2021.
A lot of those issues may be resolved now or will be resolved. The smaller countries may be more willing to accept leadership from the bigger ones, Germany under Merz seems to have freed itself from its Russian delusions, Meloni may be willing to stump for a stronger defense, a Labour government may be more willing to shed the anti-European shibboleths that hobble the Tories. France is still angling for the leadership role, but they may get it, or at least close enough to an almost primus inter pares if you squint real hard to keep them happy.
A lot of mays and ifs but the project looks a lot more feasible now.
The foundation of French strategic autonomy puts France in a good position to take a leading role in the developing European security architecture, IMO.
Quote from: Jacob on March 11, 2025, 01:03:05 PMThe foundation of French strategic autonomy puts France in a good position to take a leading role in the developing European security architecture, IMO.
and the Trumpnonsense has vindicated that stance.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on March 11, 2025, 01:04:02 PMand the Trumpnonsense has vindicated that stance.
Exactly.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 11, 2025, 12:01:00 PMQuote from: The Minsky Moment on October 24, 2021, 07:13:47 PMEuropean Defense is a great idea, if only you could get the Europeans to go for it.
The French idea is is a European system led by France; the UK idea is a European system where British influence is decisive; the small countries want a committee system; Italy wants to free ride; and the German idea is a European system led by Russia.
I'd stand by this c. 2021.
A lot of those issues may be resolved now or will be resolved. The smaller countries may be more willing to accept leadership from the bigger ones, Germany under Merz seems to have freed itself from its Russian delusions, Meloni may be willing to stump for a stronger defense, a Labour government may be more willing to shed the anti-European shibboleths that hobble the Tories. France is still angling for the leadership role, but they may get it, or at least close enough to an almost primus inter pares if you squint real hard to keep them happy.
A lot of mays and ifs but the project looks a lot more feasible now.
Agree with this mostly.
I think the UK position was always that they do not want "European" defence (although the Tories made that move, or more accurately Putin clarified things - I really struggle to see any difference between Labour and the Tories on Ukraine or European defence). There's always been resistance to doing anything outside NATO structures or, more broadly, an Atlantic framework. I think that's still the case and I think it's striking that the country taking exactly the same position is Poland (although UK and Poland very often end up in a very similar place on foreign policy issues - just the Poles with a better performing economy and more willingness to put their money where their mouth is).
I think it's for basically the same reasons and I think Poland needs to be standalone not just a smaller country when looking at security in Europe. At this point, in the context of Russia - I think they're more significant than Germany or Italy on defence. I also think the Poles are also particularly alive to the Euro-level problems - I saw a German politician suggesting the EU working on intelligence gathering which is just not serious when the EU includes Hungary, Austria and Slovakia. I think that is one of Europe's big challenges that there are different levels of willingness and at a security level there are countries within the EU who cannot be trusted at all either because they're actively hostile (Hungary) or riddled with Russian intelligence (Austria). So I think any solution needs to be a little a la carte - though I think there is a real risk of some countries that can pay basically replicating the freeloading issue and causing resentment just within Europe.
I'm encouraged by Merz's direction. On Italy, my understanding is that they have more deployable forces than the UK or Germany and but that's basically entirely focused on the Med where they're very active.
As I've said before my suspicion is that it'll end up with more or less coordinated mini-lateral relations/coalitions of the willing in different parts of Europe. Britain building on existing security relationship with the Baltics, Netherlands and Nordics, France building on their relationships with Greece and Romania, Poland taking the lead in that area, with the Czechs, the Baltics and possibly contributions from other countries (like the UK and France) - each a slightly distinct set of relationships and capabilities, no single command structure (or even necessarily an institutional framework like the EU or NATO) but working together loosely. The challenge is how Germany fits in and, frankly, what it's willing to contribute.
I think the big shift is risk perception - I take your point on leadership but I think fundamentally the French and Poles, for example, did not perceive the same risks in the same way in 2021. Poland was entirely focused on Russia, I think France thought Russia could be managed and was worried about instability in the Sahel, North Africa and the Middle East. And I don't think either is wrong but both need to realise they're different angles of the European whole - a Europe that is genuinely serious about its own defence will need to be capable of looking in both direction. Though for now the obvious massive focus has to be Russia..