Too soon?
Yes, who am I kidding - of course it's too soon (although I note Trump did not, as he threatened to, announce his 2024 campaign today).
Instead, here's a stock photo of some cute puppies for your enjoyment.
(https://c8.alamy.com/comp/2AT013W/cute-beagle-puppies-sleeping-on-sofa-2AT013W.jpg)
There should be a US Election-2022 thread first. :mad:
Yang 2024?
Though I hope he will be serving as Mayor of New York by that point :hmm:
It will be another open election like 2016. I hope the Democrats don't try to present Kamala as the heir apparent and have a real race.
The Republicans are going to do something horrifying I am sure. I would like to think this will be a return to normalcy for them but without a rather unlikely Democratic sweep in 2022 I bet we have Trumpists and people who think the other Trumpists are not Trumpist enough.
There is a very real possibility that Kamala will be the sitting president. Would the Democrats pick someone else in that situation?
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 02:02:40 PM
It will be another open election like 2016. I hope the Democrats don't try to present Kamala as the heir apparent and have a real race.
Unless Harris turns out to be a disaster as Veep, the Dem nominee in 2024 will be either Biden or Harris. It will not be an "open" election.
So, are we taking for granted Biden won't run for reelection? I believe the dems will try to set up a Harris coronation if that's indeed the case.
Quote from: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 02:09:00 PM
There is a very real possibility that Kamala will be the sitting president. Would the Democrats pick someone else in that situation?
Probably not... it's very rare for a sitting Prezidizzle to be primaried.
Quote from: celedhring on January 20, 2021, 02:13:00 PM
So, are we taking for granted Biden won't run for reelection? I believe the dems will try to set up a Harris coronation if that's indeed the case.
He already said he would be a one term President I thought. He wants to be a bridge to the next generation of Democratic leaders.
Not sure if the rank and file Democrats are as eager for that next generation to be Kamala Harris as he is :P
But we'll see. The party proclaiming the person Democrats should vote for still carries a ton of weight in the party, as you can see how things went once Jim Clyburn announced that Biden should be the guy.
Quote from: Barrister on January 20, 2021, 01:54:12 PM
Too soon?
Yes, who am I kidding - of course it's too soon (although I note Trump did not, as he threatened to, announce his 2024 campaign today).
Instead, here's a stock photo of some cute puppies for your enjoyment.
(https://c8.alamy.com/comp/2AT013W/cute-beagle-puppies-sleeping-on-sofa-2AT013W.jpg)
Kick rocks.
Quote from: celedhring on January 20, 2021, 02:13:00 PM
So, are we taking for granted Biden won't run for reelection? I believe the dems will try to set up a Harris coronation if that's indeed the case.
Biden never committed himself either way. But he will be 82 at this time in 4 years. But I suspect if he feels up for it in 2023 he might consider it.
Joe Exotic!
Proposed slogan: "You've done worse".
Quote from: celedhring on January 20, 2021, 02:13:00 PM
So, are we taking for granted Biden won't run for reelection?
Biden is still pretty young for a Democratic politician, so you never know.
Quote from: Barrister on January 20, 2021, 02:16:47 PM
Quote from: celedhring on January 20, 2021, 02:13:00 PM
So, are we taking for granted Biden won't run for reelection? I believe the dems will try to set up a Harris coronation if that's indeed the case.
Biden never committed himself either way. But he will be 82 at this time in 4 years. But I suspect if he feels up for it in 2023 he might consider it.
Oh? I thought he had.
Quote from: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 02:17:27 PM
Quote from: celedhring on January 20, 2021, 02:13:00 PM
So, are we taking for granted Biden won't run for reelection?
Biden is still pretty young for a Democratic politician, so you never know.
:weep:
Quote from: garbon on January 20, 2021, 02:16:18 PM
Kick rocks.
I meant this as a joke thread (hence the puppies). I'm kind of surprised people actually want to discuss the topic.
I'll probably rename the thread title to something inane in a bit to let it die.
Quote from: Caliga on January 20, 2021, 02:14:30 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 02:09:00 PM
There is a very real possibility that Kamala will be the sitting president. Would the Democrats pick someone else in that situation?
Probably not... it's very rare for a sitting Prezidizzle to be primaried.
It's not that rare.
Reagen challenged Ford in '76.
Kennedy challenged Carter in 80.
Buchanen challenged Bush in '92.
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 02:17:33 PM
Quote from: Barrister on January 20, 2021, 02:16:47 PM
Quote from: celedhring on January 20, 2021, 02:13:00 PM
So, are we taking for granted Biden won't run for reelection? I believe the dems will try to set up a Harris coronation if that's indeed the case.
Biden never committed himself either way. But he will be 82 at this time in 4 years. But I suspect if he feels up for it in 2023 he might consider it.
Oh? I thought he had.
Best I can find:
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129
He's privately suggested he'll only serve one term, but has never said so publicly. He doesn't want to instantly be a lame-duck President.
Quote from: Barrister on January 20, 2021, 02:20:31 PM
It's not that rare.
Reagen challenged Ford in '76.
Kennedy challenged Carter in 80.
Buchanen challenged Bush in '92.
By 'primaried' I meant actually lose the nomination via the primary. There are always at least fringe challengers.
I think there was some presidents who were sort of primaried, in that they knew they had a bad hand and folded on the flop. I think both Truman and Johnson bowed out early because they faced a challenging primary.
I'll nomnate Lady Gaga for the democratic ticket, because the White House seriously needs more wafty , wide, colourful skirts.
Quote from: Caliga on January 20, 2021, 02:35:30 PM
Quote from: Barrister on January 20, 2021, 02:20:31 PM
It's not that rare.
Reagen challenged Ford in '76.
Kennedy challenged Carter in 80.
Buchanen challenged Bush in '92.
By 'primaried' I meant actually lose the nomination via the primary. There are always at least fringe challengers.
Then yes, you are correct in this.
Closest would be Johnson in '68 - who actually competed and narrowly won the New Hampshire Primary before dropping out after being challenged by both Eugene McCarthy and RFK.
If he had but known his ultimate competition would have been McCarthy he might have stuck it out. I bet he could have beaten Nixon.
Ah well. Stupid Vietnam ruined everything.
Mike Pompeo in Iowa and "C-Span, the public affairs television network, dispatched its 'Road to the White House 2024' team for the first time to cover the event, marking the earliest start to its coverage of a presidential election race since 2008."
Good God :blink: :bleeding:
Is America ever not in a campaign? :lol:
It could well be said that in the modern media environment, there is no such thing as a democracy that is not a some level of election campaigning all of the time.
Quote from: Barrister on January 20, 2021, 02:20:31 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 20, 2021, 02:14:30 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 02:09:00 PM
There is a very real possibility that Kamala will be the sitting president. Would the Democrats pick someone else in that situation?
Probably not... it's very rare for a sitting Prezidizzle to be primaried.
It's not that rare.
Reagen challenged Ford in '76.
Kennedy challenged Carter in 80.
Buchanen challenged Bush in '92.
Is it worth mentioning that 92 was 29 years ago? And for those mentioning LBJ it was 53?
Basically, the youngest voters who participated in the Buchanan / Bush primary would be ~50 now, and the LBJ primary about 74 (I think most states had 21 as the voting age back then).
Not really sure the point here except to note that we are getting old.
I am happy so long as the nominees come from the Bush, Trump, Clinton, Biden and Obama families.
Quote from: Monoriu on March 29, 2021, 07:50:50 PM
I am happy so long as the nominees come from the Bush, Trump, Clinton, Biden and Obama families.
Well there is basically zero chance we are going to see any more Clintons, Obamas, Bidens, or Bushes be nominees any time soon. So thanks for that Mono :P
I'm sure there is a family with many special scions missing from this list. :unsure:
Quote from: Valmy on March 29, 2021, 09:29:36 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 29, 2021, 07:50:50 PM
I am happy so long as the nominees come from the Bush, Trump, Clinton, Biden and Obama families.
Well there is basically zero chance we are going to see any more Clintons, Obamas, Bidens, or Bushes be nominees any time soon. So thanks for that Mono :P
Joe Biden said he will seek re-election in 2024?
The dynasty thing is stupid enough by itself, so why only the last five?
When he is 82? Dear God. I hope not.
Not even you would want a status quo that old.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2021, 10:00:59 PM
The dynasty thing is stupid enough by itself, so why only the last five?
The whole idea is people need to stay away from politics.
But somebody has to do it. Best case scenario is there is a royal family who will take care of things.
Since there is no royal family in the US, the best substitute is several distinguished families.
I don't want the list to be too long. If you keep adding families to the list, eventually you'll end up covering everybody anyway.
Quote from: Valmy on March 29, 2021, 10:01:21 PM
When he is 82? Dear God. I hope not.
Not even you would want a status quo that old.
I have no problem with a Head of State/Government who is 82.
Quote from: Monoriu on March 29, 2021, 10:46:53 PM
Since there is no royal family in the US, the best substitute is several distinguished families.
Out of all the elitist blue blooded fancy pants families in the US and you want us to keep electing the Trumps? Geez.
Quote from: Valmy on March 29, 2021, 11:01:28 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 29, 2021, 10:46:53 PM
Since there is no royal family in the US, the best substitute is several distinguished families.
Out of all the elitist blue blooded fancy pants families in the US and you want us to keep electing the Trumps? Geez.
Personally I hate Trump and I don't want to see his face or hear his words again for the rest of my life.
But rules are rules. Trump is on the list.
PS
QuoteJoe Biden says he expects to run for reelection in 2024
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/25/2024-presidential-election-joe-biden-expects-to-run-for-reelection.html
Quote from: DGuller on March 29, 2021, 09:44:26 PM
I'm sure there is a family with many special scions missing from this list. :unsure:
Kardashian? About as dignified as 45.
Quote from: Monoriu on March 29, 2021, 11:04:21 PM
PS
QuoteJoe Biden says he expects to run for reelection in 2024
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/25/2024-presidential-election-joe-biden-expects-to-run-for-reelection.html
Jesus fucking Christ Joe. You will be doing well if you live until the end of your first term.
Mahathir served as Prime Minister of Malaysia when he was like 94. 80-something is no big deal :contract:
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2021, 10:00:59 PM
The dynasty thing is stupid enough by itself, so why only the last five?
I know. What about say the Roosevelts? Lots of them running around both of the Franklin and Teddy variety.
Quote from: Valmy on March 29, 2021, 11:16:20 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 29, 2021, 11:04:21 PM
PS
QuoteJoe Biden says he expects to run for reelection in 2024
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/25/2024-presidential-election-joe-biden-expects-to-run-for-reelection.html
Jesus fucking Christ Joe. You will be doing well if you live until the end of your first term.
Technically, he's 79% likely to survive his first term. Actually, given that he survived the first two months, it's probably a touch higher than 79% now.
How do you arrive at that figure? If it's from looking at all men his age, it doesn't factor in the significant chance of assassination.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on March 30, 2021, 12:31:29 AM
How do you arrive at that figure? If it's from looking at all men his age, it doesn't factor in the significant chance of assassination.
Not to mention his very stressful job.
You can go deep into the rabbit hole of cherrypicking all the positive and negative factors. The 79% figure was taken from basic information, such as his age, sex, race, and education level. In aggregate, I would say that he has a lot more positive factors than negative factors. The big positive factor that trumps probably everything else is that he must be in a much better health than the average person his age, and with access to much better healthcare. Joe probably doesn't have to worry about falling the shower and waiting for a day until someone realizes he needs to be checked up on.