Honest question: What should the US do about the current crisis with Iran? Not what should have been done in the past that might have adverted the current situation, but what can be done with the cards on the table at this moment. I honestly don't know (of course nobody pays me to know these sort of things so I'm personally in the clear on this one). The best I can come up with is to create a coalition of naval forces to protect all shipping in the Gulf. Unfortunately that doesn't really solve the problem. The Iranians appear to be testing the boundaries believing that Trump will capitulate like he did with the North Koreans. There is good reason to believe that he will do so, but it's a dangerous game and eventually the Iranians are going to hit a hard wall. If not from the US then from the Saudis and the Emirates.
Maybe follow around Iranian military, para-military, and civilian shipping in the area to stress that we are watching them? That sort of harassment is dangerous on it's own. We probably don't want to be in a situation where the US military shoots down another civilian airliner. Also I imagine the Iranians have some sort of plan in place if the US dusts it's 1980's play book.
Nothing. Let it die with the news cycle.
Slap on a few more sanctions and call it a day.
Don't define it as a crisis. Do not escalate.
As far as the drone thing goes, just ignore it. Doesn't really matter what the thing cost--it's an unmanned recon drone.
As for the tankers, I think we need clearer information about what actually happened to decide what would be an appropriate response.
OTOH, I'm all for glassing over the place for past provocations, so just blowing the whole country up is fine with me.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 22, 2019, 04:39:51 PM
Nothing. Let it die with the news cycle.
I think that might have been the plan last month when they damaged some ships with mines and shot at a drone.
Quote from: Razgovory on June 23, 2019, 02:54:10 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 22, 2019, 04:39:51 PM
Nothing. Let it die with the news cycle.
I think that might have been the plan last month when they damaged some ships with mines and shot at a drone.
Did I miss something? Isn't that where we still are except for trump saying he nearly attacked but cancelled at the last minute?
I agree with Yi.
Iran doesn't want a war. America doesn't want a war. Why have a war.
I think there are definitely Americans who want a war. There are definitely Americans who have pull in making policy who want a war. Trump, despite all of his faults, is not one of them in my opinion. If he can avoid talking to the hawks, we might actually be able to dodge the manufactured crisis. I certainly hope so. As to how to get rid of it? Rejoin the Treaty we dropped out of and make Trump think it is different or let him slap his name on it instead of Obama.
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on June 23, 2019, 05:01:05 AM
I think there are definitely Americans who want a war. There are definitely Americans who have pull in making policy who want a war.
Let's put specifics on the matter. The Secretary of State and the National Security Advisor want "regime change." That's a dangerous and powerful bloc to be on the hunt for a Farsi variant on the Gulf of Tonkin.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 23, 2019, 01:22:33 PM
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on June 23, 2019, 05:01:05 AM
I think there are definitely Americans who want a war. There are definitely Americans who have pull in making policy who want a war.
Let's put specifics on the matter. The Secretary of State and the National Security Advisor want "regime change."
Do they have a friendly strongman selected?
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 23, 2019, 01:22:33 PM
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on June 23, 2019, 05:01:05 AM
I think there are definitely Americans who want a war. There are definitely Americans who have pull in making policy who want a war.
Let's put specifics on the matter. The Secretary of State and the National Security Advisor want "regime change." That's a dangerous and powerful bloc to be on the hunt for a Farsi variant on the Gulf of Tonkin.
I wonder how they want to get a regime change. The military operation to do that would surely be beyond American political willpower...
Quote from: Razgovory on June 22, 2019, 04:38:33 PM
Honest question: What should the US do about the current crisis with Iran? Not what should have been done in the past that might have adverted the current situation, but what can be done with the cards on the table at this moment. I honestly don't know (of course nobody pays me to know these sort of things so I'm personally in the clear on this one). The best I can come up with is to create a coalition of naval forces to protect all shipping in the Gulf. Unfortunately that doesn't really solve the problem. The Iranians appear to be testing the boundaries believing that Trump will capitulate like he did with the North Koreans. There is good reason to believe that he will do so, but it's a dangerous game and eventually the Iranians are going to hit a hard wall. If not from the US then from the Saudis and the Emirates.
Maybe follow around Iranian military, para-military, and civilian shipping in the area to stress that we are watching them? That sort of harassment is dangerous on it's own. We probably don't want to be in a situation where the US military shoots down another civilian airliner. Also I imagine the Iranians have some sort of plan in place if the US dusts it's 1980's play book.
there was no crisis before Trump took office. I'd say remove Trump from office and slowly de-escalate things.
Quote from: Zanza on June 23, 2019, 03:53:32 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 23, 2019, 01:22:33 PM
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on June 23, 2019, 05:01:05 AM
I think there are definitely Americans who want a war. There are definitely Americans who have pull in making policy who want a war.
Let's put specifics on the matter. The Secretary of State and the National Security Advisor want "regime change." That's a dangerous and powerful bloc to be on the hunt for a Farsi variant on the Gulf of Tonkin.
I wonder how they want to get a regime change. The military operation to do that would surely be beyond American political willpower...
Not if all opponents are jailed as traitors.
Quote from: Zanza on June 23, 2019, 03:53:32 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 23, 2019, 01:22:33 PM
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on June 23, 2019, 05:01:05 AM
I think there are definitely Americans who want a war. There are definitely Americans who have pull in making policy who want a war.
Let's put specifics on the matter. The Secretary of State and the National Security Advisor want "regime change." That's a dangerous and powerful bloc to be on the hunt for a Farsi variant on the Gulf of Tonkin.
I wonder how they want to get a regime change. The military operation to do that would surely be beyond American political willpower...
I think it's clear that the neocons live in a fantasy world where Iraq never happened.
This is one issue where I hope Trump's isolationist instincts will prevail over advice from (that faction of) his advisors.
Quote from: Razgovory on June 23, 2019, 02:54:10 AM
I think that might have been the plan last month when they damaged some ships with mines
Do we have evidence that actually happened? I haven't been following this charade closely.
Quote from: Maximus on June 23, 2019, 07:51:32 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on June 23, 2019, 02:54:10 AM
I think that might have been the plan last month when they damaged some ships with mines
Do we have evidence that actually happened? I haven't been following this charade closely.
I hate that we are asking ourselves that question. But after 2003...
I've been wondering if the Iranians are purposefully trying to provoke an attack to demonstrate to the world that the US is a bad actor and to convince the rest of the world to ignore any US sanctions on Iran.
The only reason why sanctions work is that multinationals rather do business in the US than Iran if they have to pick. Foreign governments already don't care for sanctions.
Quote from: Zanza on June 23, 2019, 10:53:49 PM
The only reason why sanctions work is that multinationals rather do business in the US than Iran if they have to pick. Foreign governments already don't care for sanctions.
Yup.
Quote from: Razgovory on June 23, 2019, 10:41:57 PM
I've been wondering if the Iranians are purposefully trying to provoke an attack to demonstrate to the world that the US is a bad actor and to convince the rest of the world to ignore any US sanctions on Iran.
I think Iran wants to demonstrate the US it has the capabilities to hurt its opponents without inter continental ballistic missiles. I wouldn't be surprised if
some of these attacks were by Iran, but others could have been made by a 3rd party willing to frame Iran.
Quote from: Zanza on June 23, 2019, 10:53:49 PM
The only reason why sanctions work is that multinationals rather do business in the US than Iran if they have to pick. Foreign governments already don't care for sanctions.
They don't care for them, but if ignore them together and promise to protect their businesses then Trump's sanction regime will fall apart. The US can't sanction the entire world.
Quote from: viper37 on June 24, 2019, 12:17:03 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on June 23, 2019, 10:41:57 PM
I've been wondering if the Iranians are purposefully trying to provoke an attack to demonstrate to the world that the US is a bad actor and to convince the rest of the world to ignore any US sanctions on Iran.
I think Iran wants to demonstrate the US it has the capabilities to hurt its opponents without inter continental ballistic missiles. I wouldn't be surprised if some of these attacks were by Iran, but others could have been made by a 3rd party willing to frame Iran.
Nationalists. :rolleyes: Always with the false flags.
Quote from: Razgovory on June 23, 2019, 10:38:48 PM
Quote from: Maximus on June 23, 2019, 07:51:32 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on June 23, 2019, 02:54:10 AM
I think that might have been the plan last month when they damaged some ships with mines
Do we have evidence that actually happened? I haven't been following this charade closely.
I hate that we are asking ourselves that question. But after 2003...
Or after the Gulf of Tonkin. Or after the USS Maine.
Despite the implications for the world economy, I have a real distaste for intervening in a dispute between the Gulf monarchies and Iran because they're all so horrible. Just do more diplo work behind the scenes and maybe use some targeted sanctions until the Iranians do something really aggressive.
Nobody has suggested orbital nukes, is surety no longer important?
Iran may be bad, but no one has accused them of being xenomorphs.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49053383
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FTeP8yaW.png&hash=3a33a327b7d180f7f8a24c488c95c925ae0250ed)
Just when you think trump has messed up the world enough...
Quote from: Tyr on July 19, 2019, 01:39:51 PM
Just when you think trump has messed up the world enough...
What are you referring too?
Quote from: Tonitrus on July 19, 2019, 01:34:47 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49053383
QuoteThe government's emergency committee, Cobra, is meeting in Whitehall to discuss the incident.
cool name, but a little sinister
Is the chair of that committee called: Cobra Commander?
Sorry.
I am having a hard time getting Iran's agenda here. I thought they could trade with people now.
Quote from: Valmy on July 19, 2019, 03:37:34 PM
Is the chair of that committee called: Cobra Commander?
Sorry.
I am having a hard time getting Iran's agenda here. I thought they could trade with people now.
Well no, the US pulled out of the nuclear deal, and is pressuring other countries to restrict their dealings with Iran.
Yes well if Iran keeps this up everybody else will not need much pressuring.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/834/cpsprodpb/F4A1/production/_107952626_stena_tanker_gulf_640map-nc-3.png)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49053383 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49053383)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D_3Luf2UIAE_2ca?format=jpg&name=small)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D_3Luf2UcAAPt_C?format=jpg&name=small)
:hmm:
A drone strike destroyed much of Saudi Arabia's oil production capacity this weekend. Houthi rebels in Yemen are taking credit for it. So, yeah, that happened. Now what? I'm extremely suspicious of the Houthi claims. I don't know how they would have gotten a hold of military drones, how they could hide them, and how they would train people to use and maintain them. Also, the strike took place on the other side of Saudi Arabia.
Still, I have no fucking clue what is actually going on or how any of the regional powers are going to react. All I can say for certain is that this not a welcome development.
The media seems sure it was Iran who did it. I saw some article claiming that this proves that Trump was correct for backing out of the agreement that Obama brokered. Other media pieces seem to be claiming we are going to attack Iran now.
I don't know what is going on.
Firing Bolton and THEN starting a war with Iran would be rather unfair to mustachioed one. :(
Quote from: Valmy on September 16, 2019, 09:08:36 AM
The media seems sure it was Iran who did it. I saw some article claiming that this proves that Trump was correct for backing out of the agreement that Obama brokered. Other media pieces seem to be claiming we are going to attack Iran now.
I don't know what is going on.
Well, military drones are big, complicated things. It's difficult to see how they would manage to keep an airstrip hidden from Saudi Arabia. I did read something that they may have come out of Southern Iraq which seems a bit more plausible than the Houthi rebels developing an air force. If it is Iran, then they are really putting Trump in a bind. Trump doesn't want a war, he just wants to project an image of toughness on the other hand this is a really provocative move. Trump and the Saudis almost certainly need to respond somehow, but nobody trusts either Trump or MBS so there is no political support for retaliation in the international community. Destroying Iran's oil infrastructure would be counterproductive, and would piss off the rest of the world. In short, Trump and MBS must act or lose face, but any action they take would be detrimental to both powers and carries the real chance of war. A war that nobody would win...
Guess that Aramco IPO is getting delayed again . . .
Quote from: Razgovory on September 16, 2019, 08:50:04 AM
I'm extremely suspicious of the Houthi claims.
Does it really matter? Even if it did come from Houthi controlled territory and the Houthis nominally "owned" the drones (I assume they don't self-manufacture the type used), there is no way they take a step like this without checking in with Tehran. Does it really matter which fig-leafed Iranian proxy is the nominal perpetrator? Does it matter if the launch originated from near Sanaa or near Basra?
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 16, 2019, 12:08:03 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 16, 2019, 08:50:04 AM
I'm extremely suspicious of the Houthi claims.
Does it really matter? Even if it did come from Houthi controlled territory and the Houthis nominally "owned" the drones (I assume they don't self-manufacture the type used), there is no way they take a step like this without checking in with Tehran. Does it really matter which fig-leafed Iranian proxy is the nominal perpetrator? Does it matter if the launch originated from near Sanaa or near Basra?
It might be helpful if to know where the attacks came from, particularly if we are interested preventing further attacks.