Gas pipe deal aims to end Russia's monopoly (http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/07/13/turkey.gas.pipeline/index.html)
QuoteISTANBUL, Turkey (CNN) -- Officials from six countries gathered Monday in Turkey and signed a deal to build a U.S.-backed pipeline, aimed at breaking Russia's near-monopoly on natural gas supplies to Europe.
The proposed Nabucco pipeline would run from Turkey's eastern border, through Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary, to a key gas terminal in Baumgarten, Austria.
Germany is also a partner in the deal, which is being signed in the Turkish capital, Ankara.
Russia controls the current network of pipelines that supply Europe with natural gas.
To challenge the Nabucco proposal, Russia has proposed a competing natural gas pipeline to southeastern Europe. The South Stream pipeline would pass under the Black Sea and connect with Bulgaria. Russia and Italy would each control half of that pipeline. See map of pipeline »
However, Nabucco got a boost after Russia turned off the gas to Europe in January, during the latest in a series of price disputes with Ukraine, according to industry analysts.
The Nabucco project is budgeted at €7.9 billion (about $11 billion).
Since the idea's inception in 2002, plans for Nabucco have languished amid disagreements among consortium partners and lack of commitment from natural gas suppliers.
Turkey had demanded to retain 15 percent of the gas passing through the pipeline for consumption and export, which its European partners rejected.
The energy minister of Azerbaijan is expected to attend Monday's signing, a top Western government official said.
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Gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz 2 field will be a crucial component of the project. European officials have raised hopes that other gas producers, such as Iraq and Turkmenistan, also might contribute to the pipeline.
Big hurdles remain for the pipeline project named after an opera by Verdi.
Consortium members must raise billions of dollars for the Nabucco project. Construction has not begun, and gas is not projected to be pumped through until 2014.
Still, industry analysts called Monday's intergovernmental agreement a significant development.
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"It's one of those steps that moves Nabucco out of the possible column and into the probable column," said John Roberts, an energy security specialist with Platts.
"My own guess is roughly by the end of the year, it will be pretty clear that Nabucco will be built."
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi2.cdn.turner.com%2Fcnn%2F2009%2Fimages%2F07%2F13%2Fpipeline3.jpg&hash=fa40f65c66cd811089ef54163267d2633a545d12)
OMG US IMPERIALIZM!
QuoteSince the idea's inception in 2002, plans for Nabucco have languished
It's our fault. :weep:
Quote from: Syt on July 13, 2009, 11:50:01 AM
QuoteSince the idea's inception in 2002, plans for Nabucco have languished
It's our fault. :weep:
I blame all the Russophiles on this board.
Quote from: Syt on July 13, 2009, 11:42:21 AM
Gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz 2 field will be a crucial component of the project. European officials have raised hopes that other gas producers, such as Iraq and Turkmenistan, also might contribute to the pipeline.
So then Russia will probably invade Azerbaijan by 2013.
Quote from: derspiess on July 13, 2009, 11:56:08 AM
Quote from: Syt on July 13, 2009, 11:42:21 AM
Gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz 2 field will be a crucial component of the project. European officials have raised hopes that other gas producers, such as Iraq and Turkmenistan, also might contribute to the pipeline.
So then Russia will probably invade Azerbaijan by 2013.
That was
exactly what I thought when I read this sentence! :D
Great.
Now they need to get the gas to pipe through it. :contract:
Isn't the main problem with Russia and gas though more that so much of Europe's gas comes from Russia in the first place?
Quote from: Valmy on July 13, 2009, 11:44:45 AM
OMG US IMPERIALIZM!
EU imperialism :p
How much alternative solar/wind/nuclear power capacity would $11 billion* buy?
*and like any construction project, we all know the final tab will be a lot more than that.
Quote from: Tonitrus on July 13, 2009, 05:15:01 PM
How much alternative solar/wind/nuclear power capacity would $11 billion* buy?
*and like any construction project, we all know the final tab will be a lot more than that.
$11 billion would probably buy you two 1,600 MW nuke reactors, if you're lucky.
Fuck. I thought it was the Nabisco pipeline. Fucking Keebler.
Quote from: Tyr on July 13, 2009, 01:04:57 PM
Isn't the main problem with Russia and gas though more that so much of Europe's gas comes from Russia in the first place?
Nabucco is being approved on the "if you build it they will come" theory.
The hope is that the the physical reality of seeing the pipeline construction happen will stir some of the 'stans to invest seriously in production.
The funny part is that one obvious country that could be a major supplier of gas through Nabucco is . . . Iran. Kinda puts the problems with the Russians in perspective.
Great news! :cool:
Quote from: derspiess on July 13, 2009, 11:56:08 AM
Quote from: Syt on July 13, 2009, 11:42:21 AM
Gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz 2 field will be a crucial component of the project. European officials have raised hopes that other gas producers, such as Iraq and Turkmenistan, also might contribute to the pipeline.
So then Russia will probably invade Azerbaijan by 2013.
Will the send in the Nigaz?
Take that Schroeder. You wanker.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 13, 2009, 05:21:53 PM
The funny part is that one obvious country that could be a major supplier of gas through Nabucco is . . . Iran. Kinda puts the problems with the Russians in perspective.
If Europe had a coherent, unified, intelligent foreign policy they would be able to play the two (or eventually three, including Central Asia and the Caucasus as semi-independent players) against eachother. Instead, they're a bunch of bickering tiny states with half of them run by Gazprom stooges.
Quote from: Queequeg on July 13, 2009, 08:37:14 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 13, 2009, 05:21:53 PM
The funny part is that one obvious country that could be a major supplier of gas through Nabucco is . . . Iran. Kinda puts the problems with the Russians in perspective.
If Europe had a coherent, unified, intelligent foreign policy they would be able to play the two (or eventually three, including Central Asia and the Caucasus as semi-independent players) against eachother. Instead, they're a bunch of bickering tiny states with half of them run by Gazprom stooges.
And that's why Europe will never have a common foreign policy. Every government in Europe is utterly corrupt.
Quote from: derspiess on July 13, 2009, 11:56:08 AM
Quote from: Syt on July 13, 2009, 11:42:21 AM
Gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz 2 field will be a crucial component of the project. European officials have raised hopes that other gas producers, such as Iraq and Turkmenistan, also might contribute to the pipeline.
So then Russia will probably invade Azerbaijan by 2013.
Yeah, because Russian interference with nationalist Muslims has worked so well in the past.
Quote from: Queequeg on July 13, 2009, 08:37:14 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 13, 2009, 05:21:53 PM
The funny part is that one obvious country that could be a major supplier of gas through Nabucco is . . . Iran. Kinda puts the problems with the Russians in perspective.
If Europe had a coherent, unified, intelligent foreign policy they would be able to play the two (or eventually three, including Central Asia and the Caucasus as semi-independent players) against eachother. Instead, they're a bunch of bickering tiny states with half of them run by Gazprom stooges.
would only be possible if the nationsare broken, and with the british desease on the rise and now infecting even germany it's not going to happen anytime soon.
Quote from: Syt on July 14, 2009, 12:18:36 AM
Quote from: derspiess on July 13, 2009, 11:56:08 AM
Quote from: Syt on July 13, 2009, 11:42:21 AM
Gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz 2 field will be a crucial component of the project. European officials have raised hopes that other gas producers, such as Iraq and Turkmenistan, also might contribute to the pipeline.
So then Russia will probably invade Azerbaijan by 2013.
Yeah, because Russian interference with nationalist Muslims has worked so well in the past.
Well, Chechnya has been sufficiently cowed.
Quote from: citizen k on July 14, 2009, 01:18:31 AM
Quote from: Syt on July 14, 2009, 12:18:36 AM
Quote from: derspiess on July 13, 2009, 11:56:08 AM
Quote from: Syt on July 13, 2009, 11:42:21 AM
Gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz 2 field will be a crucial component of the project. European officials have raised hopes that other gas producers, such as Iraq and Turkmenistan, also might contribute to the pipeline.
So then Russia will probably invade Azerbaijan by 2013.
Yeah, because Russian interference with nationalist Muslims has worked so well in the past.
Well, Chechnya has been sufficiently cowed.
Chechnya is a former Soviet Republic. Apples and oranges.
And what Azerbajian is?
Quote from: Tamas on July 14, 2009, 01:44:38 AM
And what Azerbajian is?
Know I not. Tell us you must.
Quote from: The Brain on July 14, 2009, 03:20:14 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 14, 2009, 03:16:42 AM
Quote from: garbon on July 14, 2009, 02:38:56 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 14, 2009, 01:44:38 AM
And what Azerbajian is?
Know I not. Tell us you must.
Part of Union Soviet. It was.
Are you a Communist, son?
Nope, it's just that Marty implied that Chechnya's reconquista by the Russians could not happen with Azerbaijan because Chechens were part of the SU. Azeris were, as well, so yes, they will get stomped if this Nabucco thing ever turns out to be a realistic project.
Quote from: Tamas on July 14, 2009, 03:25:50 AM
Quote from: The Brain on July 14, 2009, 03:20:14 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 14, 2009, 03:16:42 AM
Quote from: garbon on July 14, 2009, 02:38:56 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 14, 2009, 01:44:38 AM
And what Azerbajian is?
Know I not. Tell us you must.
Part of Union Soviet. It was.
Are you a Communist, son?
Nope, it's just that Marty implied that Chechnya's reconquista by the Russians could not happen with Azerbaijan because Chechens were part of the SU. Azeris were, as well, so yes, they will get stomped if this Nabucco thing ever turns out to be a realistic project.
I don't need the long version, comrade.
Quote from: Martinus on July 14, 2009, 01:40:05 AM
Chechnya is a former Soviet Republic. Apples and oranges.
:lol: Well almost. Checnya was never a Soviet Republic though Azerbaijan was. It was always part of the Russian Soviet Republic.
Quote from: Razgovory on July 14, 2009, 03:48:42 AM
Quote from: Martinus on July 14, 2009, 01:40:05 AM
Chechnya is a former Soviet Republic. Apples and oranges.
:lol: Well almost. Checnya was never a Soviet Republic though Azerbaijan was. It was always part of the Russian Soviet Republic.
Marty fails with comparisons? Say it is not so!
Sorry for some reason I thought we were talking about Armenia.
Still, I do think that Chechnya and Azerbajian are apples and oranges. Azerbajian is not a rebel republic, the independence of which Russia is not recognizing. Like Ukraine or Lithuania, it may be a former part of the SU but its international status is completely different from that of Chechnya.
Quote from: Martinus on July 14, 2009, 05:13:57 AM
Sorry for some reason I thought we were talking about Armenia.
Still, I do think that Chechnya and Azerbajian are apples and oranges. Azerbajian is not a rebel republic, the independence of which Russia is not recognizing. Like Ukraine or Lithuania, it may be a former part of the SU but its international status is completely different from that of Chechnya.
Yeah but it did not stop them in case of Georgia, did it?
Quote from: Martinus on July 14, 2009, 05:13:57 AM
Sorry for some reason I thought we were talking about Armenia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_Soviet_Socialist_Republic
Um...Marty? :P
For somebody who grew up in the Soviet Bloc you sure seem uninformed about who your Warsaw Pact buddies were.
North America also has vast amounts of untapped natural gas. That should be drilled for and exported to Europe, probably by ship, and to where ever else. And of course used in N. America.
Quote from: KRonn on July 14, 2009, 07:47:34 AM
North America also has vast amounts of untapped natural gas. That should be drilled for and exported to Europe, probably by ship, and to where ever else. And of course used in N. America.
Whatever resources there are in North America shall be consumed by the unlimited appetite of the mighty American consumer. NO GAS FOR YOU EUROPE!
If you expect me to check that every fact I post on Languish is true, we may just as well finish our discussion here and now, as I see no point in continuing it. <_<
Quote from: Martinus on July 14, 2009, 07:59:32 AM
If you expect me to check that every fact I post on Languish is true, we may just as well finish our discussion here and now, as I see no point in continuing it. <_<
That what we are here for: to educumacate you!
Quote from: Syt on July 14, 2009, 12:18:36 AM
Quote from: derspiess on July 13, 2009, 11:56:08 AM
Quote from: Syt on July 13, 2009, 11:42:21 AM
Gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz 2 field will be a crucial component of the project. European officials have raised hopes that other gas producers, such as Iraq and Turkmenistan, also might contribute to the pipeline.
So then Russia will probably invade Azerbaijan by 2013.
Yeah, because Russian interference with nationalist Muslims has worked so well in the past.
Hey we haven't learned, why should they? :P
Quote from: Tamas on July 14, 2009, 03:25:50 AM
Nope, it's just that Marty implied that Chechnya's reconquista by the Russians could not happen with Azerbaijan because Chechens were part of the SU. Azeris were, as well, so yes, they will get stomped if this Nabucco thing ever turns out to be a realistic project.
There is a big difference. Chechnya was part of the Russian republic, while Azerbaijan was its own republic. Therefore, Chechens had to rebel from Russia, which entitled Russia to come in and put them down. On the other hand, Azeris automatically got their own country once USSR fell apart, so Russians have no pretext for coming.
Quote from: DGuller on July 14, 2009, 10:09:59 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 14, 2009, 03:25:50 AM
Nope, it's just that Marty implied that Chechnya's reconquista by the Russians could not happen with Azerbaijan because Chechens were part of the SU. Azeris were, as well, so yes, they will get stomped if this Nabucco thing ever turns out to be a realistic project.
There is a big difference. Chechnya was part of the Russian republic, while Azerbaijan was its own republic. Therefore, Chechens had to rebel from Russia, which entitled Russia to come in and put them down. On the other hand, Azeris automatically got their own country once USSR fell apart, so Russians have no pretext for coming.
Yes. And as I said to Marty: that did not stop them in the case of Georgia. You really don't have to sweat it to find a casus belli in that region.
Quote from: DGuller on July 14, 2009, 10:09:59 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 14, 2009, 03:25:50 AM
Nope, it's just that Marty implied that Chechnya's reconquista by the Russians could not happen with Azerbaijan because Chechens were part of the SU. Azeris were, as well, so yes, they will get stomped if this Nabucco thing ever turns out to be a realistic project.
There is a big difference. Chechnya was part of the Russian republic, while Azerbaijan was its own republic. Therefore, Chechens had to rebel from Russia, which entitled Russia to come in and put them down. On the other hand, Azeris automatically got their own country once USSR fell apart, so Russians have no pretext for coming.
Amd Azerbaijan was part of the Russian Empire, and therefore the Russians have all the pretext they feel they need to invade and exterminate all who oppose them.
Quote from: Martinus on July 14, 2009, 05:13:57 AM
Sorry for some reason I thought we were talking about Armenia.
Well, Armenia was a Soviet Republic as well.
The funny thing about Armenia is that (according to the map anyway) they seem to be participating in the pipeline, even though they are (AFAIK) pretty firmly within Putinvedev's sphere of influence.
I used to like Armenia over Azerbaijan, but that has flipped recently.
Quote from: derspiess on July 14, 2009, 10:48:38 AM
I used to like Armenia over Azerbaijan, but that has flipped recently.
Was it Psellus that turned you off?
Quote from: Tamas on July 14, 2009, 10:17:45 AM
Yes. And as I said to Marty: that did not stop them in the case of Georgia. You really don't have to sweat it to find a casus belli in that region.
Well, you do have to be a bit sneakier about it. Helps a lot if there is a pissed off ethnic minority in the former SSR.
Quote from: Valmy on July 14, 2009, 10:51:43 AM
Was it Psellus that turned you off?
Nah. I try to reserve all my spite for Marty & Jaron.
Quote from: derspiess on July 14, 2009, 10:48:38 AM
I used to like Armenia over Azerbaijan, but that has flipped recently.
Every player in the Caucases has to play a complicated balancing game between Moscow and Washington/Brussels. In the case of Armenia this is further complicated by the tenuous situation in Nagorno-Kharabakh, especially as the Azeri economy is taking off while the Armenian economy has yet to fully recover from the war and the earthquake. Generally speaking, Armenia can play pretty close to Moscow as the Armenian American/European community have quite a bit of influence and general sympathy with the Armenian situation in the West goes a long way.
That said, Armenia is in most respects still a better country. The war took a toll on both sides but was largely fought within the former Azeri SSR, and more than a century of the oil industry has wrecked what was once a pretty place.
FWIW, from the few pics I've seen, Azeri chicks are kinda hott. Armenians, not so much.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 13, 2009, 07:42:17 PM
Take that Schroeder. You wanker.
You know who holds Schröder's North Stream job - i.e. political advisor - at Nabucco? His old ally and foreign minister Joschka Fischer. We've got all bases covered. ;)
As fascinating as the discussion concerning the relative constitutional position of Chechnya v. Azerbaijan under the former Soviet Union is, it is neither here nor there.
Re Nabucco the $100K question is whether the Azeris will send their gas through Nabucco or whether they will send through Russia. The short answer is that they might, but not if the Russians decide they really don't want them to. So with respect to the Azeris - who at present are the only ones who have actual gas to be supplied - Nabucco adds zero in terms of diversifying away from the Russia risk problem.
Nabucco it seems to me is a dubious attempt to solve what may be a non-problem. The problem such as it exists is that Europe has to import a lot of gas, and that gas comes from far away from places that aren't very reliable or stable. Nabucco amounts to diversifying risk by multiplying it. It holds out the prospect of reducing reliance on Russia by increasing reliance on places like Turkmenistan, Iraq, or maybe in the last resort Iran. The logic of that tradeoff is somewhat elusive, to put it mildly. I also would raise an eyebrow at the thinking of the same EU leaders who have taken such a hostile line towards Turkish membership in the EU in effectively giving the Turks a stranglehold on their gas supplies.
Another way to look at this is to conclude there really is no problem in the first place. Yes, the EU risks being dependent on russia for vital energy supplies - but the russians can cut Europe off only at the cost of committing economic suicide. Russia has devolved into a colonial economy, heavily dependent on its energy production monoculture to survive as a viable going concern. So there is a sort of "energy MAD" in operation.
My understanding is that the commercial virtues of Nabucco have always taken seat to the perceived political benefits. If that is wrong and the project truly stands on its own commercially I guess it is justified. But I doubt it because the reality as it stands today is that if the project could be built overnight, there would be no gas to put through the pipeline. As of now, the expectation of future deliveries is speculative. And I think the purported political benefits are illusory at best.
But hey - I that's how the Commission wants to blow several billion euros, power to them.
Quote from: derspiess on July 14, 2009, 01:22:06 PM
FWIW, from the few pics I've seen, Azeri chicks are kinda hott. Armenians, not so much.
They look fairly similar, though Armenians often look more Jewish. Azeris near Armenia look Armenian, near Georgia look Georgian, in Iran look Iranian, etc...the actual genetic contribution of the Turkic invaders was minimal, almost wholly male and distributed equally among all Muslim populations of the area, and had an impact on Christians as well.