Poll
Question:
What's the next big gamechanger for the Trump administration.
Option 1: The US will a nice big bloody expensive war somewhere high profile.
votes: 3
Option 2: Some kind of Erdoganist/ Putinesque mangling of institutions, breaking democratic norms in permanent way.
votes: 2
Option 3: Significant economic crisis.
votes: 1
Option 4: Fumbling of a deadly natural disaster or health emergency on a national scale.
votes: 3
Option 5: Permanent major shift in international alignment - i.e. US withdrawing from the UN, seriously undermining or disbanding NATO et. al.
votes: 2
Option 6: Clear and incontrovertible proof of the Russian direct influence on Trump and senior administration.
votes: 6
Option 7: Large scale civil unrest - riots etc.
votes: 0
Option 8: A face turn - Trump does something competent that makes many of his critics accept that he's up to the job after all.
votes: 2
Option 9: Lurid personal scandal - clear evidence of Trump involved in incest, f. ex., or evidence of major corruption and abuse of power that makes even many of his supporters think he's gone too far.
votes: 1
Option 10: Breakdown of GOP discipline with the House and/or Senate openly hostile to and actively obstructing and investigating the Trump administration.
votes: 3
Option 11: A significant strike against the US, causing a major "rally around the president" effect.
votes: 0
Option 12: Something else (feel free to elaborate in a post)
votes: 0
Option 13: There won't be one. This is the new normal and the US will trundle along as is until another election changes the landscape.
votes: 6
The Trump administration has generated a lot of noise so far, with a bit of action too but perhaps less than it would have liked.
Do you reckon there'll be a major "holy shit" moment before elections (whichever ones) change the political landscape? If so, what do you think it'll be?
A face turn would be the only "holy shit moment". Any of the others should not come as a surprise.
Large scale civil unrest is probably the one that would benefit Trump.
Quote from: Maladict on March 22, 2017, 03:42:07 PM
A face turn would be the only "holy shit moment". Any of the others should not come as a surprise.
I meant "holy shit" as in "it actually happened, and it's a big deal" rather than "whoa, what a suprise".
If Trump bails on NATO it may not be a total surprise, but it still would be a major change in the world.
The only "holy shit" moments you're going to notice is the "Holy shit, why aren't any of the cars running?" and "Holy shit, was that bright flash of light what I think it was?"
I don't understand the question.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 22, 2017, 04:06:33 PM
The only "holy shit" moments you're going to notice is the "Holy shit, why aren't any of the cars running?" and "Holy shit, was that bright flash of light what I think it was?"
:lol:
:(
Would trying to do a permanent shift but getting blocked at some point count?
When I woke up and saw this thread I had a more than a bit of trepidation. <_<
His hardcore supporters won't budge on anything less than a nuclear war. It's always "FAKE NEWS". I'm so fucking tired of that.
I don't know if anything can beat the moment he actually won the election.
This is the new normal.
When he has Russian hookers pee on him live on national television.
When while tweeting on the shitter at 3am, he inadvertently activates the camera function and captures a picture of his turd in a toilet?
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 22, 2017, 07:34:55 PM
I don't know if anything can beat the moment he actually won the election.
Ditto.
I can imagine that was very special for you.
I try not to think about it.
The day Valmy & Seedy knock on my front door looking for a place to crash. That will be the sign I missed the holy shit moment.
Quote from: Berkut on March 23, 2017, 10:52:23 AM
I can imagine that was very special for you.
It was surreal. And hilarious-- still can't believe this clown got to be president.
Quote from: Grey Fox on March 23, 2017, 11:56:17 AM
The day Valmy & Seedy knock on my front door looking for a place to crash. That will be the sign I missed the holy shit moment.
I can't imagine Seedy going out that passively.
That's goddamned right.
If anything, Valmy could say he was a hostage, and I forced him to <insert hackneyed and formulaic movie plot here>.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 23, 2017, 12:47:49 PM
If anything, Valmy could say he was a hostage, and I forced him to <insert hackneyed and formulaic movie plot here>.
Okay but enough about your meet cute.
Don't you have someone to glare at in person or something?
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 23, 2017, 12:47:49 PM
That's goddamned right.
If anything, Valmy could say he was a hostage, and I forced him to <insert hackneyed and formulaic movie plot here>.
I've seen that movie.
*Serpentine, Valmy! Serpentine!*
:lol: Maybe 3 people know that reference, g. FLAMES THERE ARE FLAMES ON MY CAR
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 23, 2017, 06:21:49 PM
:lol: Maybe 3 people know that reference, g. FLAMES THERE ARE FLAMES ON MY CAR
I got it.
That's because you're olds like us.
"Are you interested in joining? The benefits are terrific. The trick is not to get killed. That's really the key to the whole benefit program."
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 23, 2017, 06:21:49 PM
:lol: Maybe 3 people know that reference
The rest have been carried off by giant tse-tse flies.
I gotta wonder if Putin might be having a "holy shit, what have I done" moment these days. :P
Talking with my decidedly elderly mother earlier, she unprompted said today reminded her of the atmosphere before the last war. I went back and asked her to clarify, she didn't mean generally the 1930s, but the last few weeks of July/August 1939 before the September 3rd declaration of war.
Now I'm worried. <_<
Mud season in Ukraine ends in about a month...
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on April 13, 2017, 07:55:22 PM
Mud season in Ukraine ends in about a month...
Still too soon. Russia won't be ready until at least spring 2019.
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on April 13, 2017, 07:55:22 PM
Mud season in Ukraine ends in about a month...
It would be the first time someone invaded Russia to conquer a video cassette.
Quote from: Razgovory on April 14, 2017, 01:44:23 AM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on April 13, 2017, 07:55:22 PM
Mud season in Ukraine ends in about a month...
It would be the first time someone invaded Russia to conquer a video cassette.
Get them while they're hot.
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fchelorg.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F03%2F739d7b8f296cba2e0c7003fa3293e18a.jpg&hash=8f3b374a621dbcc5a3828374877d1abfd2ff97ac)
Quote from: Tonitrus on April 13, 2017, 07:17:20 PM
I gotta wonder if Putin might be having a "holy shit, what have I done" moment these days. :P
Of course not. Why would he?
He didn't back Trump because he thought Trump was his good buddy, he backed Trump because he knows Trump is a moron.
Moron don't always act in the way you like, but you can be confident they will act in a manner that harms their country in the long run, and that is the goal.
BTW, if we see some sort of sustained fighting involving US forces and North Korean ones, that'd be a "holy shit" moment as per the OP.
I am still not convinced that even two people as fucked up and ignorant as Trump and Kim would be stupid enough to start a war that cannot possibly make any sense for either country.
But then I realize that the other thing I am pretty sure of these days is that I am a naive fool. So there is that.
Quote from: Berkut on April 14, 2017, 11:36:39 AM
I am still not convinced that even two people as fucked up and ignorant as Trump and Kim would be stupid enough to start a war that cannot possibly make any sense for either country.
You better be convinced. Lesser wars were started by much more smarter people accidentally.
QuoteBut then I realize that the other thing I am pretty sure of these days is that I am a naive fool. So there is that.
It's not naïveté; it's the "this sort of thing only happens to others" rationalization, which comes with dealing with something so unfamiliar, so counter to what you know and what you've known. Perfectly understandable. Thing is, it's also all the more frightening because people willfully, knowingly and voluntarily chose the singularly most unqualified, uneducated and unstable person to ever hold the office.
But hey: cunts, right?
Say Kim does some nuclear testing, because he can't back down.
Then Trump orders a little cruise missile strike because he can't back down either. Noting too bad, just a little hello a la Syria.
Then Kim fires back. Not all out, like trying to level Seoul, but he has to do something because otherwise he looks too weak internally. Maybe he strikes back at a nearby carrier group.
Maybe the dice come up high enough that they sink a destroyer or hit a carrier hard enough that it hurts - and makes the US look less than invulnerable.
Is there any way that that gets deescalated?
Quote from: Jacob on April 14, 2017, 02:12:18 PM
Say Kim does some nuclear testing, because he can't back down.
Then Trump orders a little cruise missile strike because he can't back down either. Noting too bad, just a little hello a la Syria.
Then Kim fires back. Not all out, like trying to level Seoul, but he has to do something because otherwise he looks too weak internally. Maybe he strikes back at a nearby carrier group.
Maybe the dice come up high enough that they sink a destroyer or hit a carrier hard enough that it hurts - and makes the US look less than invulnerable.
Is there any way that that gets deescalated?
China sends in those ground forces?
Doesn't sound like a deescalation, but it may be the most sensible course of action.
Quote from: Jacob on April 14, 2017, 02:30:52 PM
Doesn't sound like a deescalation, but it may be the most sensible course of action.
Well hopefully Trump then backs up.
Quote from: Jacob on April 14, 2017, 02:12:18 PM
Say Kim does some nuclear testing, because he can't back down.
Then Trump orders a little cruise missile strike because he can't back down either. Noting too bad, just a little hello a la Syria.
Then Kim fires back. Not all out, like trying to level Seoul, but he has to do something because otherwise he looks too weak internally. Maybe he strikes back at a nearby carrier group.
Maybe the dice come up high enough that they sink a destroyer or hit a carrier hard enough that it hurts - and makes the US look less than invulnerable.
Is there any way that that gets deescalated?
Why try to hit a ship out in the open ocean when you've got thousands of artillery pieces and missile launchers targeted on shit that's been paced off for years? They know where the all barracks, depots, government buildings and critical infrastructure are located.
And no, China would not send in any ground forced that were never mobilized, because 1) it was a bullshit story, and 2) China will not let the North fall. Not at this time, and in this manner.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 14, 2017, 02:36:10 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 14, 2017, 02:12:18 PM
Say Kim does some nuclear testing, because he can't back down.
Then Trump orders a little cruise missile strike because he can't back down either. Noting too bad, just a little hello a la Syria.
Then Kim fires back. Not all out, like trying to level Seoul, but he has to do something because otherwise he looks too weak internally. Maybe he strikes back at a nearby carrier group.
Maybe the dice come up high enough that they sink a destroyer or hit a carrier hard enough that it hurts - and makes the US look less than invulnerable.
Is there any way that that gets deescalated?
Why try to hit a ship out in the open ocean when you've got thousands of artillery pieces and missile launchers targeted on shit that's been paced off for years? They know where the all barracks, depots, government buildings and critical infrastructure are located.
And no, China would not send in any ground forced that were never mobilized, because 1) it was a bullshit story, and 2) China will not let the North fall. Not at this time, and in this manner.
I could see China wanting to reorganize its puppet.