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General Category => Off the Record => Topic started by: The Minsky Moment on March 02, 2017, 04:40:32 PM

Title: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 02, 2017, 04:40:32 PM
It began February 28, 2017

https://www.ft.com/content/441be482-fdcb-11e6-8d8e-a5e3738f9ae4

QuoteJPMorgan Chase's chief financial officer has appealed for relief from the slew of new regulations imposed on US banks, saying that "the time feels right" to start relaxing rules put in place after the global financial crisis. . .Now, she said, the financial system was stable enough to relax some defences, potentially returning more capital to shareholders through higher dividends and share buybacks

The financial system is never stable.  The moment credit conditions improve enough to give the impression of stability is the very moment when instability begins to mount.  Banks relax standards, push for growth, and take on more marginal business.  Regulators begin to relax, or are forced by their political master to relax, and the public loses interest in regulations.  The process feeds on itself until the Minsky Moment is reached and then collapse.

In 2009 we learned the lesson learned many times before - that capital regulation either has to be consistent across the cycle or even counter-cyclical.  I.e. it is when credit conditions seem good and stable that capital control should be strongest.  But every other time the lesson was forgotten.  This time is no different.  We didn't learn.  We never do.  The next crisis is going to come and the only question is when.
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: derspiess on March 02, 2017, 04:43:36 PM
If they at least kill the Durban amendment I'll be happy.
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 02, 2017, 04:48:44 PM
She isn't really talking about Dodd-Frank generally.  She is talking specifically about capital requirements, and in particular the US implementation of the Basel capital standards, including meaningful stress testing by the Fed.  That's where the rubber hits the road.  Reduce that capital buffer and weaken incentives to mind the store, and increase the risks of moral hazard.  That was the one truly bipartisan conclusion to come out of the last crisis with both left and right-leaning economists pushing for stronger capital regulation.
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: frunk on March 02, 2017, 04:50:03 PM
We haven't had a major food borne illness problem in a while, I guess it's time to relax food safety regulations.
Bridges hardly ever collapse, it's a waste to inspect them.
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 02, 2017, 05:17:41 PM
What you are lacking Joan is any discussion of optimality.  Capital requirements could be increased infinitely to reduce the risk of insolvency, but that doesn't make it a desirable policy.
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 02, 2017, 05:29:05 PM
I hope you all lose your retirements, and your kids have to suck cock for college money.
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: Razgovory on March 02, 2017, 06:52:19 PM
honestly, we deserve it.
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 02, 2017, 06:59:34 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 02, 2017, 05:17:41 PM
What you are lacking Joan is any discussion of optimality.  Capital requirements could be increased infinitely to reduce the risk of insolvency, but that doesn't make it a desirable policy.

The literature suggests that even the "gold-plated" Basel requirements are still too low. 

I recognize that proposition can be debated, although I think the con side would have a tough time of it.

But the JPM CFO wasn't saying - capital requirements are too high as a matter of policy optimality.  She was saying they can and should be lowered because conditions had improved and become for "stable".  I.e. she is arguing for pro-cyclical capital regulation.  And that IMO is not a defensible policy position, other than from the POV of the JPM board room.
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: garbon on March 02, 2017, 07:35:18 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 02, 2017, 05:29:05 PM
suck cock

That's no so bad.
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 03, 2017, 03:43:47 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on March 02, 2017, 06:52:19 PM
honestly, we deserve it.

Raz is right.



Raz can put this quote in his sig forever now. :P
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: merithyn on March 03, 2017, 12:01:37 PM
Quote from: garbon on March 02, 2017, 07:35:18 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 02, 2017, 05:29:05 PM
suck cock

That's no so bad.

inorite?
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 03, 2017, 07:12:52 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 03, 2017, 03:43:47 AM
Raz can put this quote in his sig forever now. :P

I say go for it.
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: dps on March 03, 2017, 07:19:14 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 02, 2017, 04:40:32 PM

In 2009 we learned the lesson learned many times before - that capital regulation either has to be consistent across the cycle or even counter-cyclical.  I.e. it is when credit conditions seem good and stable that capital control should be strongest.  But every other time the lesson was forgotten.  This time is no different.  We didn't learn.  We never do.  The next crisis is going to come and the only question is when.

I don't think we learned and forgot;  we never learned in the first place.  Right after the collapse, I quit my job, and during the 2 weeks I was out of work, I had no problem getting an car loan.  I thought that they were crazy to even consider me, but heck, they practically physically restrained me to keep me there and talk me into signing for it.
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 04, 2017, 01:40:54 AM
Car loans are soft because they can repo easily.
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: DontSayBanana on March 04, 2017, 12:23:25 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 02, 2017, 05:29:05 PM
I hope you all lose your retirements, and your kids have to suck cock for college money.

:yes:
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: DGuller on March 04, 2017, 04:07:59 PM
I think one possibility that Minsky is not considering is that things are different this time.
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 04, 2017, 04:29:44 PM
What, that with a new President there's a different kind of greed now?
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: dps on March 04, 2017, 04:45:52 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 04, 2017, 04:29:44 PM
What, that with a new President there's a different kind of greed now?

It'll be the biggest greed ever!
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 04, 2017, 04:47:14 PM
Now with less International Cabal!
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 15, 2017, 02:14:12 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 04, 2017, 04:07:59 PM
I think one possibility that Minsky is not considering is that things are different this time.

Because Minsky isn't a retard.

It's never different this time.
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 15, 2017, 03:18:47 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 04, 2017, 04:07:59 PM
I think one possibility that Minsky is not considering is that things are different this time.

Aren't they always? ;)
Title: Re: The Beginning of the Next Financial Crisis
Post by: crazy canuck on March 15, 2017, 08:59:54 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 15, 2017, 03:18:47 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 04, 2017, 04:07:59 PM
I think one possibility that Minsky is not considering is that things are different this time.

Aren't they always? ;)

Yes, everytime I am a bit older.