I feel rather guilty about starting this thread, I hope it doesn't become a serious pandemic, but it's rapid spread, the lack of vaccines and the serious consequences for mother and child suggest it'll be a major news story this year.
Quote
Zika virus: Outbreak 'likely to spread across Americas' says WHO
By James Gallagher
25 January 2016
The Zika virus is likely to spread across nearly all of the Americas, the World Health Organization has warned.
The infection, which causes symptoms including mild fever, conjunctivitis and headache, has already been found in 21 countries in the Caribbean, North and South America.
It has been linked to thousands of babies being born with underdeveloped brains and some countries have advised women not to get pregnant.
No treatment or vaccine is available.
The virus was first detected in 1947 in monkeys in Africa. There have since been small, short-lived outbreaks in people on the continent, parts of Asia and in the Pacific Islands.
But it has spread on a massive scale in the Americas, where transmission was first detected in Brazil in May 2015.
Large numbers of the mosquitoes which carry the virus and a lack of any natural immunity is thought to be helping the infection to spread rapidly.
.....
More details here, if you haven't seen much on your tv/newsfeed:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35399403 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35399403)
NBC nightly news was airing story and updates each night last week, so It has been getting quite a bit of play.
Quote from: mongers on January 25, 2016, 06:22:04 PM
I feel rather guilty about starting this thread, I hope it doesn't become a serious pandemic, but it's rapid spread, the lack of vaccines and the serious consequences for mother and child suggest it'll be a major news story this year.
Certain Federal agencies have already started flipping their labs to work on it.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on January 25, 2016, 07:06:03 PM
Quote from: mongers on January 25, 2016, 06:22:04 PM
I feel rather guilty about starting this thread, I hope it doesn't become a serious pandemic, but it's rapid spread, the lack of vaccines and the serious consequences for mother and child suggest it'll be a major news story this year.
Certain Federal agencies have already started flipping their labs to work on it.
Good to know. :cool:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Flaslow.net%2Freactiongifs%2FBatch01%2FTop%2520Men.gif&hash=e5cd0c0067ae684a149c0699a9c7c8aac2e1dd41)
I cancelled a trip to the Caribbean with my family because of this, as my wife is currently expecting our third child. Was going to do Cuba.
Never heard of this until now.
Quote from: PRC on January 25, 2016, 08:28:57 PM
I cancelled a trip to the Caribbean with my family because of this, as my wife is currently expecting our third child. Was going to do Cuba.
Sensible decision, you really don't want to be sorry rather than safe.
I don't think the evidence is there yet. Zika has been around for a long time and was never suggested to result in microcephaly in the past. No other viruses related to Zika cause teratogenic effects. My guess is most of the Brazil "epidemic" is from hysteria, uncovering under-diagnosis from other causes (genetic, environmental, other infectious causes), and utilization of advanced imaging technologies that weren't previously available.
Quote from: Fate on January 26, 2016, 10:01:52 AM
I don't think the evidence is there yet. Zika has been around for a long time and was never suggested to result in microcephaly in the past. No other viruses related to Zika cause teratogenic effects. My guess is most of the Brazil "epidemic" is from hysteria, uncovering under-diagnosis from other causes (genetic, environmental, other infectious causes), and utilization of advanced imaging technologies that weren't previously available.
I was listening to the Dr. who authored several studies about this being interviewed on the CBC. His view is that Zika has likely mutated. And btw this isnt just happening in Brazil.
But he was also of the view that the virus would probably die off - similar to what happened with the West Nile Virus, as populations in areas in which it has spread develop immunity to the virus. Unless it continues to mutate of course but the odds of that happening are low.
There are so many viruses that could turn into a epidemic. :(
I heard this was spread via the large levels of cyanide in most vaccinations, and the mosquito thing is just a cover for Big Pharma.
Quote from: Berkut on January 26, 2016, 12:23:36 PM
I heard this was spread via the large levels of cyanide in most vaccinations, and the mosquito thing is just a cover for Big Pharma.
Can it reach and massage the prostate though?
Quote from: Berkut on January 26, 2016, 12:23:36 PM
I heard this was spread via the large levels of cyanide in most vaccinations
And Mercury! :o
:lol:
And thanks to anti vaxers I regard such theories with the utmost hilarity.
Quote from: Tamas on January 26, 2016, 12:43:03 PM
Quote from: Berkut on January 26, 2016, 12:23:36 PM
I heard this was spread via the large levels of cyanide in most vaccinations, and the mosquito thing is just a cover for Big Pharma.
Can it reach and massage the prostate though?
:pinch:
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 26, 2016, 12:15:02 PM
Quote from: Fate on January 26, 2016, 10:01:52 AM
I don't think the evidence is there yet. Zika has been around for a long time and was never suggested to result in microcephaly in the past. No other viruses related to Zika cause teratogenic effects. My guess is most of the Brazil "epidemic" is from hysteria, uncovering under-diagnosis from other causes (genetic, environmental, other infectious causes), and utilization of advanced imaging technologies that weren't previously available.
I was listening to the Dr. who authored several studies about this being interviewed on the CBC. His view is that Zika has likely mutated. And btw this isnt just happening in Brazil.
But he was also of the view that the virus would probably die off - similar to what happened with the West Nile Virus, as populations in areas in which it has spread develop immunity to the virus. Unless it continues to mutate of course but the odds of that happening are low.
He has no proof it has mutated, let alone evidence that this mutation causes disease in humans. He's engaging in mere idle speculation. There are no published studies showing a change in the genetics of the virus. All we know for certain is that it has changed in geographic distribution. South American countries are reporting an increased incidence of microcephaly, but who's to say that the incidence of microcephaly pre-hysteria was an accurate representation of the actual incidence? Getting a bunch of Latina women paranoid and going to doctors for ultrasounds when they may have otherwise stayed home is going to increase the incidence of all sorts of ante-natal birth defects, none of which are yet attributable to Zika.
West Nile didn't die off. It's endemic in the United States now. Although West Nile did "die off" in the hysterical medical news outlets. The number of cases per year currently is pretty similar to the hysteria days but it's now boring.
I dunno Fate - microcephaly isn't like fibromyalgia. It's a pretty obvious disease. I read somewhere that rates of microcephaly had gone up 30x in one Brazillian state in the last year.
The connection between Zika and microcephaly is still tenuous I'll admit. But it'd be quite the coincidence if zika became widespread at just the same time as we see an explosion in microcephalic newborns.
Quote from: Barrister on January 26, 2016, 02:58:29 PM
I dunno Fate - microcephaly isn't like fibromyalgia. It's a pretty obvious disease. I read somewhere that rates of microcephaly had gone up 30x in one Brazillian state in the last year.
The connection between Zika and microcephaly is still tenuous I'll admit. But it'd be quite the coincidence if zika became widespread at just the same time as we see an explosion in microcephalic newborns.
All we have is correlation. We don't have any solid evidence for causation. There may well be something else going on in that one state unrelated to Zika. It may be due to random variation. You're going to see random pockets of high microcephaly incidence if you look close enough at the world as a whole.
Clearly microcephaly has objective criteria. I don't debate that point. It's that when you have more people showing up at a doctor's office, you're going to find more of whatever you're looking for.
A recent example of this is in South Korea. They had a 1500% (yes, that number is correct) increase in the rate of thyroid cancer in the span of just a few years. Was there actually a thyroid cancer "epidemic" going on in the country? Was thyroid cancer the new #1 killer of Koreans? No. Up to 30% of us will die with thyroid cancer in our thyroid gland and never know about it. The 1500% increase was all due to hysteria in the media and overdiagnosis by profit minded surgeons/endocrinologists.
Quote from: Fate on January 26, 2016, 02:53:58 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 26, 2016, 12:15:02 PM
Quote from: Fate on January 26, 2016, 10:01:52 AM
I don't think the evidence is there yet. Zika has been around for a long time and was never suggested to result in microcephaly in the past. No other viruses related to Zika cause teratogenic effects. My guess is most of the Brazil "epidemic" is from hysteria, uncovering under-diagnosis from other causes (genetic, environmental, other infectious causes), and utilization of advanced imaging technologies that weren't previously available.
I was listening to the Dr. who authored several studies about this being interviewed on the CBC. His view is that Zika has likely mutated. And btw this isnt just happening in Brazil.
But he was also of the view that the virus would probably die off - similar to what happened with the West Nile Virus, as populations in areas in which it has spread develop immunity to the virus. Unless it continues to mutate of course but the odds of that happening are low.
He has no proof it has mutated.
Ok, I will be sure to let him know.
Looked a bit more into the numbers...
Microcephaly is commonly defined as head circumfrence less than 3 standard deviations below the mean or ~0.1% of all live birth in first world nations. Some authors use 2 standard deviations which is 2.5% of all live births.
There were 3 million total live births in Brazil in 2014 and 147 reported cases of microcephaly in 2014. So 0.005% of live births in Brazil had microcephaly. This number is laughably low and suggests widespread under-diagnosis (by 20 fold) of this condition prior to Zika arriving in Brazil.
3500 reported cases of microcephaly have been reported so far in Brazil in the last few months. That suggests an incidence rate of 0.12%, which is actually pretty close to the normal incidence of microcephaly in the general population if you go by the 3 standard deviation definition. I'm not sure how Brazil defines this and that's actually pretty important, because if they use 2 standard deviations as the definition then the normal microcephaly rate would be 2.5% or 75,000 births/year.
I've sealed my breeding stock into hermetically sealed sub basement. I only had room for 12 white virgins, so I had to let the rest out of the corral.
I say we should all panic.
Quote from: PDH on January 26, 2016, 08:12:53 PM
I say we should all panic.
I've already wet myself.
I'm inclined to believe fate. he always provides in depth explanations that make sense, and he doesn't have a track record of being wrong. the only time I remember him being wrong about something medical related was the "this won't cause ebola deaths in the US." and iirc, that was more "well fuck, an accident happened that led to someone actually dying."
doctors aren't like lawyers; the average doctor is usually pretty competent thanks to strict school admission standards.
also
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/01/16/health/what-is-zika-virus.html?_r=0
QuoteNormally, about 150 cases of microcephaly are reported, and Brazil says it is investigating more than 3,500 reported cases.
But reporting of suspected cases commonly rises during health crises.
Quote from: LaCroix on January 26, 2016, 08:54:33 PM
doctors aren't like lawyers; the average doctor is usually pretty competent thanks to strict school admission standards.
I'm inclined to agree all that makes sense, except for perhaps that bit above. After years of interviewing physicians, I'm skeptical of their standard competence.
Quote from: garbon on January 27, 2016, 07:32:46 AMI'm inclined to agree all that makes sense, except for perhaps that bit above. After years of interviewing physicians, I'm skeptical of their standard competence.
maybe it's just more competent than the average attorney then. assumed the years of residency would have helped with the admission standards. but, it's true there are loads of incompetent strivers
I'm certainly in the minority view. Most doctors aren't skeptical of the data and seem to embrace the media narrative. Those in charge also don't seem to be questioning Brazil's statistics prior to 2015 but maybe that will change. We shall see in the next few months to years if there truly was a spike in incidence. Until then I wonder what harm will be caused by telling women to delay pregnancy. Ex. that 33 year old in Nicaragua who waits until she's 35 - all of the sudden her risk of Down's syndrome, complications, and other congenital anomalies skyrockets.
Quote from: LaCroix on January 26, 2016, 08:54:33 PM
I'm inclined to believe fate. he always provides in depth explanations that make sense, and he doesn't have a track record of being wrong. the only time I remember him being wrong about something medical related was the "this won't cause ebola deaths in the US." and iirc, that was more "well fuck, an accident happened that led to someone actually dying."
doctors aren't like lawyers; the average doctor is usually pretty competent thanks to strict school admission standards.
also
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/01/16/health/what-is-zika-virus.html?_r=0
QuoteNormally, about 150 cases of microcephaly are reported, and Brazil says it is investigating more than 3,500 reported cases.
But reporting of suspected cases commonly rises during health crises.
I am a bit more inclined to accept what the guy who actually studies this has to say over some other guy who is still in training and took a brief period of time out of his busy schedule to think about it.
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 27, 2016, 02:06:47 PM
Quote from: LaCroix on January 26, 2016, 08:54:33 PM
I'm inclined to believe fate. he always provides in depth explanations that make sense, and he doesn't have a track record of being wrong. the only time I remember him being wrong about something medical related was the "this won't cause ebola deaths in the US." and iirc, that was more "well fuck, an accident happened that led to someone actually dying."
doctors aren't like lawyers; the average doctor is usually pretty competent thanks to strict school admission standards.
also
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/01/16/health/what-is-zika-virus.html?_r=0
QuoteNormally, about 150 cases of microcephaly are reported, and Brazil says it is investigating more than 3,500 reported cases.
But reporting of suspected cases commonly rises during health crises.
I am a bit more inclined to accept what the guy who actually studies this has to say over some other guy who is still in training and took a brief period of time out of his busy schedule to think about it.
I don't know who you are talking about but I'm not sure what definite thought I'd take from something like this:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2075152-did-zikas-recent-mutations-let-it-explode-as-a-global-threat/
Quote"I suspect the virus may have changed," says Scott Weaver of the University of Texas in Galveston.
Following up on Garbo's link, it says this isn't just Brazil - there has been a spike in CNS malformations in French Polynesia, which wsa hit by Zika about a year earlier than Brazil.
QuoteOn 24 November 2015, the health authorities of French Polynesia reported an increase from an average of one
reported case annually to 17 cases of CNS malformations in foetuses and infants during 2014–2015. Different CNS
malformations were observed among 12 of the cases and were reported by the health authorities of French
Polynesia as: microcephaly (head circumference <5th percentile), destruction of cerebral structure, cerebellar
hypoplasia, corpus callosum agenesis, and severe ventricular dilatation >10 mm at first trimester. The findings led
to termination of pregnancy in nine instances. The three remaining cases were born at term with normal body
measurements and presented poly-malformations and brains lesions. Cytomegalovirus testing was negative and
karyotype was normal. An unusual increase of brainstem dysfunction was observed during the same period (five
cases with normal magnetic resonance imaging and standard genetic analyses negative). None of the mothers
presented Zika virus infection compatible symptoms. Biological investigations are ongoing. Based on the temporal
correlation of these cases with the Zika outbreaks in French Polynesia, the local health authorities hypothesise that
Zika virus infection may be associated with these abnormalities if mothers are infected during the first or second
trimester of pregnancy [3].
http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications/Publications/rapid-risk-assessment-zika-virus-first-update-jan-2016.pdf
Which is pretty much what the expert on the CBC said - that it is likely the virus has mutated. :)
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 27, 2016, 02:42:58 PM
Which is pretty much what the expert on the CBC said - that it is likely the virus has mutated. :)
QuoteBased on the temporal correlation of these cases with the Zika outbreaks in French Polynesia, the local health authorities hypothesise that Zika virus infection may be associated with these abnormalities if mothers are infected during the first or second trimester of pregnancy
Maybe likely means something different to you...
The fact remains that Brazil's prior reporting of microcephaly cases is highly questionable. There is no reason to believe that Brazil is a special snowflake and had a real microcephaly rate 100 times below what is normal for a first world country like the United States until the year 2015.
We're putting an international spotlight on a developing country and applying first world expectations. I argue they simply had shit data in the prior years and now Brazil is likely reaching report rates that are normal for a country their size. In a country of 200 million people and 3 million births there should be about 15,000 cases of microcephaly in a normal year. If Zika is truly increasing the incidence we should see far greater numbers than that... but we're only at 3500.
Quote from: garbon on January 27, 2016, 02:50:13 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 27, 2016, 02:42:58 PM
Which is pretty much what the expert on the CBC said - that it is likely the virus has mutated. :)
QuoteBased on the temporal correlation of these cases with the Zika outbreaks in French Polynesia, the local health authorities hypothesise that Zika virus infection may be associated with these abnormalities if mothers are infected during the first or second trimester of pregnancy
Maybe likely means something different to you...
Perhaps if you were not in Languish mode you might have realized I was commenting on the bit you quoted from what you linked. Do you see the similarity?
Quote"I suspect the virus may have changed," says Scott Weaver of the University of Texas in Galveston.
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 27, 2016, 05:14:41 PM
Quote from: garbon on January 27, 2016, 02:50:13 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 27, 2016, 02:42:58 PM
Which is pretty much what the expert on the CBC said - that it is likely the virus has mutated. :)
QuoteBased on the temporal correlation of these cases with the Zika outbreaks in French Polynesia, the local health authorities hypothesise that Zika virus infection may be associated with these abnormalities if mothers are infected during the first or second trimester of pregnancy
Maybe likely means something different to you...
Perhaps if you were not in Languish mode you might have realized I was commenting on the bit you quoted from what you linked. Do you see the similarity?
Quote"I suspect the virus may have changed," says Scott Weaver of the University of Texas in Galveston.
Once again it is your summary that I take issue with. I agree that both are similar in that it is possible it might have mutated and thus at fault. Not languish mode to note that's different from your summary as likely to have mutated and is causing this.
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 27, 2016, 02:06:47 PM
Quote from: LaCroix on January 26, 2016, 08:54:33 PM
I'm inclined to believe fate. he always provides in depth explanations that make sense, and he doesn't have a track record of being wrong. the only time I remember him being wrong about something medical related was the "this won't cause ebola deaths in the US." and iirc, that was more "well fuck, an accident happened that led to someone actually dying."
doctors aren't like lawyers; the average doctor is usually pretty competent thanks to strict school admission standards.
also
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/01/16/health/what-is-zika-virus.html?_r=0
QuoteNormally, about 150 cases of microcephaly are reported, and Brazil says it is investigating more than 3,500 reported cases.
But reporting of suspected cases commonly rises during health crises.
I am a bit more inclined to accept what the guy who actually studies this has to say over some other guy who is still in training and took a brief period of time out of his busy schedule to think about it.
Hasn't Fate graduated?
Yeah, several years ago. I'm in residency training. Infectious diseases and public health is just a hobby.
I sent an email to one of the principal investigators in Brazil and author of the MMWR CDC report to see what was up with her numbers. Her email is Portugeselish but it was interesting never the less. Bolding is mine.
Quote from: Dr.Lavinia Schuler-Faccini
Dear Dr. [<Fate>]
Thanks for your message. First of all I think that the US rate of microcephaly as 0.5% refers of microcephaly secondary to any brain damage, because we would expect from the Gauss curve (the bell curve) that, by definition 2.5% of every children would be born neg 2SD. So that explains why there is partly some disagreements in definitions.
Only HC under 2SD is not a definition of MAJOR congenital anomaly. It is only if there is a subjacent brain anomaly.
Many classifications use 3SD below the mean as a cutoff.
So the 150 cases were part of the cut off definition (originally only VISIBLE microcephaly with neurological abnormality was recorded) PLUS a chronic underreport on the birth certificates (from where the data from 2010-2014) was extracted.
After the alert in Pernambuco (NE Brazil), Brazilian government started to register as SUSPECTED cases for epidemiological vigillance all children born with 33 cm or less, or under 1SD. In December, this criterion was reviewed and only children born with 32 cm (2SD) or less were included as "suspected" . That means that part of the increase is really an artifact of changing definitions. And, of course, better registration of cases. HOWEVER, even before the alert by the MoH and consequently the media, an increase of records of microcephalic babies was observed based on the national birth certificates registry (SINASC) Acclaration for SINASC: in Brazil, every liveborn certificate has a field to be completed by the doctor/nurse describing if the baby has any congenital anomaly and which one it is. It's largely known that there is an under registration on these certificates.
However, even considering that now we have an overreport, from my personal observation, we have 17 cases of SEVERE microcephaly (that means head circumference below 3SD) born in Ceara state from August-December, 2015. In Ceara, we have in average of 10,000 births per month - therefore 60,000 births in each semester. 17/60,000 means 2.8/10,000 , which is already on the top of expected for HC under 3SD which is expected to be 1-2/10,000 worldwide.
Moreover, they are not only microcephalic babies - they present brain abnormalities very suggestive of congenital infection AND have a peculiar clinical presentation which is different from other genetic or environmental syndromes known to cause microcephaly. Of course this is only preliminary information and we are collecting and examining more cases to "curate" this number being notified by the MoH. From the MoH SUSPECT cases, in average, half is excluded due to inaccuracy of head measurments, another clear etiology (genetic or other infection known to produce microcephaly) or children with microcephaly WITHOUT any brain or neurological abnormality.
My personal impression is that THERE IS an augmentation of cases of microcephaly in Brazil, HOWEVER is not that huge as the suspected cases referred to the MoH. It is not possible yet to evaluate the magnitude of the affected cases but we believe that soon our work which is collaborative with other groups in Brazil. Of course, there are other causes of microcephaly but it would NOT explain a sudden temporal increase in the cases we are seeing. Moreover, as I told you, these 17 cases of SEVERE microcephaly only had ALL tests for other infections, and examination excluding FETAL ALCOHOL SYNDROME, diabetes, genetic disorders. Rubella is erradicated from Brazil, and malnutrition to cause microcephaly should be EXTREME and we don't have many cases of that in Brazil anymore. So there is really a red flag.
I'm willing to discuss any further questions you might have
Lavinia
Lavinia Schuler-Faccini
Presidente - Sociedade Brasileira de Genetica Medica
www.sbgm.org.br
Departamento de Genetica / Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Serviço de Genética Médica / Hospital de Clinicas de Porto Alegre
Caixa Postal 15053 - Ag. Campus Agronomia
CEP 91501-970, Porto Alegre, RS - Brazil
I'd argue that simply because they had excluded all other known toxic or infectious causes of microcephaly in those 17 cases, does not mean these cases were caused by Zika virus. I sincerely doubt they did thorough genetic testing of these fetuses (which cause up to 50% of the cases) given the limited resources of the country. She also repeats the claim that severe microcephaly has a worldwide incidence of 1-2 cases per 10,000 while in the US we know this number is really more like 1 in 1,000.
It'll be interesting to see how far the hysteria in the US goes. Rapid development of a vaccine and mass vaccination campaign? Donald Trump proposing a ban on Latin American immigrants/travelers for fear that they have a congenital defect causing virus in their blood?
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 27, 2016, 02:06:47 PMI am a bit more inclined to accept what the guy who actually studies this has to say over some other guy who is still in training and took a brief period of time out of his busy schedule to think about it.
right now it's all speculation. like I said, what fate has said makes sense. it makes a lot more sense than "well, it's possible that a maybe occurred." fate could be wrong, but he's made a much more convincing argument. just like I'd believe a well-made minsky argument over some unknown legal scholar who talks a bunch of BS
Interesting email Fate. Thanks for posting. :thumbsup:
I guess I have to stick up for Brazil a little bit. While it is definitely a developing country, it's not some failed state either. They do have fairly advanced hospitals and doctors.
Fate or CDC? Hmmm....
Agencies like the CDC have kinda the duty of planning for worst case scenarios, though. I would expect them to react strongly even if the evidence is faint.
Quote from: katmai on January 27, 2016, 11:05:36 PM
Fate or CDC? Hmmm....
CDC, now WHO...or Fate? :hmm:
"Zika virus spreading 'explosively', says World Health Organisation"http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/28/zika-virus-spreading-explosively-says-world-health-organisation
Quote from: Alcibiades on January 28, 2016, 11:59:17 AM
Quote from: katmai on January 27, 2016, 11:05:36 PM
Fate or CDC? Hmmm....
CDC, now WHO...or Fate? :hmm:
"Zika virus spreading 'explosively', says World Health Organisation"
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/28/zika-virus-spreading-explosively-says-world-health-organisation
Well that's a little different. There's no debate about the fact that Zika is spreading wildly. It is. It was first spotted in Brazil in April 2015 and is expected to be spread throughout the Americas by the end of 2016 (except Canada and Chile).
What Fate is questioning is whether Zika is linked to brain defects in newborns.
Butthe symptoms of Zika are really minor. Most have no symptoms at all. If you do have symptoms you get a fever and a rash.
"Zika" sounds like one of those made up names people give their babies to sound more "ethnic".
Kinda like Tomas.
Quote from: katmai on January 28, 2016, 05:29:52 PM
Kinda like Tomas.
IKR? Lets give this little asshole a biblical name, people will think he is a good guy. Pffft
Newsnight today they were talking about whether zika's spread to central america could lead to a reform of the fucked up abortion laws there.
Interesting angle :hmm:
I should add that unsurprisingly there's already some bullshit out there on the 'ether', claiming the outbreak originates from a release of genetically modified mosquito in the same area, wherever that is.
Can't be arsed to post a link as the one I saw was to zerohedge and generally life's too short to bother with that stuff. If you want to check out this 'hypothesis' I'm sure google will turn up enough links.
Quote from: katmai on January 28, 2016, 05:29:52 PM
Kinda like Tomas.
:mad:
By the way, I'm in the "God's punishment" or "Big pharma hoax" on this one. A virus that sounds like folksy band from Bolivia? Can't take that seriously.
Small bump:
Quote from: NYTimes
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/02/06/world/americas/ap-zika-virus.html?_r=2
BOGOTA, Colombia — Colombia's President Juan Manuel Santos said Saturday that there's no evidence Zika has caused any cases of the birth defect known as microcephaly in his country, though it has diagnosed 3,177 pregnant women with the virus.
Santos also announced that a U.S. medical-scientific team will arrive in Colombia to help investigate the mosquito-borne virus.
Brazilian officials say they suspect Zika is behind a seemingly unusual number of microcephaly cases, in which children are born with unusually small heads. The link is not confirmed, but it has helped prompt the World Health Organization to declare an emergency over the virus.
Santos says Zika apparently has affected more than 25,600 Colombians overall.
Colombian officials said Friday that three people had died of the paralyzing Guillain-Barre syndrome they attributed to cases of Zika.
To date, the mosquito-borne virus has spread to more than 20 countries in the Americas.
With global concern over the Zika virus growing, health officials are warning pregnant women to be careful about who they kiss and calling on men to use condoms with pregnant partners if they have visited countries where the virus is present.
The flurry of recommendations began in Brazil, where a top health official said that scientists have found live virus in saliva and urine samples, and the possibility it could be spread by the two body fluids requires further study.
As more numbers come in we'll get a clearer picture, but I think this further supports the idea Brazil was uncovering systemic underdiagnosis of microcephaly from other causes rather than seeing a new spike purely attributable to Zika. I definitely think the CDC/WHO went overboard since this involves pregnant women and is overreacting to their deficiencies when it came to the West African Ebola response.
Ermahgerd it is here and spreading! I'm doooooooooooooooomed
(3 cases in Bexar county now: http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/Two-more-cases-of-Zika-virus-confirmed-in-Bexar-6821515.php)
Quote from: MadBurgerMaker on February 10, 2016, 05:38:23 PM
Ermahgerd it is here and spreading! I'm doooooooooooooooomed
(3 cases in Bexar county now: http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/Two-more-cases-of-Zika-virus-confirmed-in-Bexar-6821515.php)
Unless you're a chick I don't think you need to worry. :hmm:
Quote from: Caliga on February 10, 2016, 07:03:00 PM
Unless you're a chick I don't think you need to worry. :hmm:
Quotemen who travel to areas that are affected by Zika are advised to abstain from sex or use condoms for three months after returning,
Disaster.
Quote from: Fate on February 10, 2016, 05:36:08 PM
I definitely think the CDC/WHO went overboard since this involves pregnant women and is overreacting to their deficiencies when it came to the West African Ebola response.
Tenuous association to microcephaly or not, Zika is still a mosquito-borne flavivirus pushing asymptomatic incidents at 80%--so there's no such thing as overreacting when it comes to acting in the national interest of defending the US blood supply.
And stop combining the CDC and the WHO. It's unseemly.
Quote from: Fate on February 10, 2016, 05:36:08 PM
As more numbers come in we'll get a clearer picture, but I think this further supports the idea Brazil was uncovering systemic underdiagnosis of microcephaly from other causes rather than seeing a new spike purely attributable to Zika. I definitely think the CDC/WHO went overboard since this involves pregnant women and is overreacting to their deficiencies when it came to the West African Ebola response.
WHO now officially feels that Zika causes microcephaly:
QuoteThe outbreak has led to a rush on research to solidify these links, and in the cases of microcephaly and Guillain-Barré, the connection is finally strong enough to be called causal. In its Zika situation report on Thursday, the World Health Organization used the word "cause" to describe the relationship between Zika and these two conditions.
"Based on a growing body of preliminary research, there is scientific consensus that Zika virus is a cause of microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome," the report reads.
http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/04/zika-linked-to-ever-more-neurological-conditions/477720/
Yeah, similar articles are now showing up in the New England Journal of Medicine. I still take issue with the WHO in terms of Zika causality, but mosquito eradication is a great public health benefit for other reasons. I recognize that I'm in a very small minority regarding causation.
Quote from: Fate on January 27, 2016, 03:28:46 PM
The fact remains that Brazil's prior reporting of microcephaly cases is highly questionable. There is no reason to believe that Brazil is a special snowflake and had a real microcephaly rate 100 times below what is normal for a first world country like the United States until the year 2015.
We're putting an international spotlight on a developing country and applying first world expectations. I argue they simply had shit data in the prior years and now Brazil is likely reaching report rates that are normal for a country their size. In a country of 200 million people and 3 million births there should be about 15,000 cases of microcephaly in a normal year. If Zika is truly increasing the incidence we should see far greater numbers than that... but we're only at 3500.
Small update regarding my original hypothesis. In the past 6 months there were 6900 cases of microcephaly recorded in Brazil per the WHO. For the sake of argument let's say there will possibly be 14000 cases over the course of a year.
This is entirely in line with what I hypothesized before - that if Brazil has the same incidence of microcephaly as the United States (0.53% of live births), then we'd expect 15000 cases/year in Brazil before the Zika virus even set foot on the continent of South America.
If Zika is causing an increased incidence of microcephaly, then we should see much more than 15000 cases/year in Brazil. It will be interesting to look back on this in the next few years and see if I was totally off my rocker or if the WHO was overstating the case for causation.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-36401150
QuoteZika crisis: WHO rejects 'move Rio Olympics' call
The World Health Organization (WHO) has rejected a call to move or postpone this summer's Rio Olympic Games over the Zika outbreak.
It said this would "not significantly alter" the spread of the virus, which is linked to serious birth defects.
In an open letter to the WHO, more than 100 leading scientists had said new findings about Zika made it "unethical" for the Games to go ahead.
They also said the global health body should revisit its Zika guidance.
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has said it sees no reason to delay or move the Games because of the mosquito-borne disease.
The outbreak began in Brazil a year ago, but now more than 60 countries and territories have continuing transmission.
Between February and April 2016, Brazil's health ministry registered 91,387 likely cases of the Zika virus. The number of babies born with Zika-linked defects stood at 4,908 in April.
While Zika's symptoms are mild, in the letter the experts say it causes babies to be born with abnormally small heads and may also cause a rare and sometimes fatal neurological syndrome in adults.
The letter is signed by 150 international scientists, doctors and medical ethicists from such institutions as Oxford University and Harvard and Yale universities in the United States.
They cite the failure of a mosquito-eradication programme in Brazil, and the country's "weakened" health system as reasons to postpone or move the Olympics in "the name of public health".
"An unnecessary risk is posed when 500,000 foreign tourists from all countries attend the Games, potentially acquire that strain, and return home to places where it can become endemic," the letter says.
The biggest risk, it adds, is if athletes contract the virus and returned home to poor countries that have not yet suffered a Zika outbreak.
They also express concern the WHO has a conflict of interest because of its partnership with the IOC.
The Rio Olympics are due to take place between 5 and 21 August.
In a statement, the WHO, which has declared the Zika virus a global public health emergency, said: "Brazil is one of almost 60 countries and territories which to date report continuing transmission of Zika by mosquitoes.
"People continue to travel between these countries and territories for a variety of reasons. The best way to reduce risk of disease is to follow public health travel advice."
Several public health experts had previously warned that hundreds of thousands of people arriving in Rio would speed up Zika's spread and lead to the births of brain-damaged babies.
But on Thursday, the head of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), whose advice is quoted approvingly in the letter, said the threat did not warrant halting the Games.
"There is no public health reason to cancel or delay the Olympics," Dr Tom Frieden said.
However, he urged the US to act more quickly to prevent pregnant women contracting Zika, amid congressional deadlock over the release of $1.9bn (£1.3bn) in funding.
And virology researcher Oliver Brady, from Oxford University, said the risk was comparatively low because the Olympics would take place during Brazil's winter.
"We really think August is about 20 to 40 times lower risk than we see around now or in January where we see these large numbers of cases reported from Rio," he told the BBC.
The Olympics have never been moved for public health reasons but Fifa relocated its 2003 Women's World Cup from China to the US because of the Sars epidemic.
On another note, why does the BBC hate paragraphs? :(
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1604037?query=featured_home
New study in the NEJM which looked at 12,000 Zika positive pregnant women in Colombia. None of the fetuses developed microcephaly. The caveat is that most of the women were infected in the third trimester, but about 1200 were first and second trimester. In the next half year we should have more substantial data on first and second trimester Zika infections in Colombia. 0 cases in this population group is reassuring. If they don't find anything in the expanded study then I think the CDC may have to backtrack on causation.
No, the CDC will not be backtracking at all.
South Carolina kills millions of bees as it tries to combat zika. Ah politicians, are there any people more stupid?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/04/zika-mosquito-neurotoxin-kills-bees-livelihoods-beekeepers
Quote from: HVC on September 05, 2016, 06:20:58 PM
Ah politicians, are there any people more stupid?
Americans teaching "English" in South Korea?
http://www.pri.org/stories/2016-11-01/zika-s-million-dollar-question-where-are-birth-defects
Summary: Brazil saw a spike in reported microcephaly cases in 2015/6 in two states and had a Zika outbreak around the same time. The rest of South America also had a Zika outbreak but hasn't seen a similar spike in microcephaly cases. Per capita Puerto Rico has a Zika infection rate 8 times higher than Brazil... yet there's no corresponding microcephaly epidemic.
Maybe there's something special about those two states in Brazil, maybe it was all just hysteria. Time will tell...