Zika Virus

[Duque de Bragança]

I heard this was spread via the large levels of cyanide in most vaccinations, and the mosquito thing is just a cover for Big Pharma.

Can it reach and massage the prostate though?

[Fate]

I don't think the evidence is there yet. Zika has been around for a long time and was never suggested to result in microcephaly in the past. No other viruses related to Zika cause teratogenic effects. My guess is most of the Brazil "epidemic" is from hysteria, uncovering under-diagnosis from other causes (genetic, environmental, other infectious causes), and utilization of advanced imaging technologies that weren't previously available.

I was listening to the Dr. who authored several studies about this being interviewed on the CBC.  His view is that Zika has likely mutated. And btw this isnt just happening in Brazil. 

But he was also of the view that the virus would probably die off - similar to what happened with the West Nile Virus, as populations in areas in which it has spread develop immunity to the virus.  Unless it continues to mutate of course but the odds of that happening are low.

He has no proof it has mutated, let alone evidence that this mutation causes disease in humans. He's engaging in mere idle speculation. There are no published studies showing a change in the genetics of the virus. All we know for certain is that it has changed in geographic distribution. South American countries are reporting an increased incidence of microcephaly, but who's to say that the incidence of microcephaly pre-hysteria was an accurate representation of the actual incidence? Getting a bunch of Latina women paranoid and going to doctors for ultrasounds when they may have otherwise stayed home is going to increase the incidence of all sorts of ante-natal birth defects, none of which are yet attributable to Zika.

West Nile didn't die off. It's endemic in the United States now. Although West Nile did "die off" in the hysterical medical news outlets. The number of cases per year currently is pretty similar to the hysteria days but it's now boring.

[Barrister]

I dunno Fate - microcephaly isn't like fibromyalgia.  It's a pretty obvious disease.  I read somewhere that rates of microcephaly had gone up 30x in one Brazillian state in the last year.

The connection between Zika and microcephaly is still tenuous I'll admit.  But it'd be quite the coincidence if zika became widespread at just the same time as we see an explosion in microcephalic newborns.

[Fate]

I dunno Fate - microcephaly isn't like fibromyalgia.  It's a pretty obvious disease.  I read somewhere that rates of microcephaly had gone up 30x in one Brazillian state in the last year.

The connection between Zika and microcephaly is still tenuous I'll admit.  But it'd be quite the coincidence if zika became widespread at just the same time as we see an explosion in microcephalic newborns.

All we have is correlation. We don't have any solid evidence for causation. There may well be something else going on in that one state unrelated to Zika. It may be due to random variation. You're going to see random pockets of high microcephaly incidence if you look close enough at the world as a whole.

Clearly microcephaly has objective criteria. I don't debate that point. It's that when you have more people showing up at a doctor's office, you're going to find more of whatever you're looking for.

A recent example of this is in South Korea. They had a 1500% (yes, that number is correct) increase in the rate of thyroid cancer in the span of just a few years. Was there actually a thyroid cancer "epidemic" going on in the country? Was thyroid cancer the new #1 killer of Koreans? No. Up to 30% of us will die with thyroid cancer in our thyroid gland and never know about it. The 1500% increase was all due to hysteria in the media and overdiagnosis by profit minded surgeons/endocrinologists.

[crazy canuck]

I don't think the evidence is there yet. Zika has been around for a long time and was never suggested to result in microcephaly in the past. No other viruses related to Zika cause teratogenic effects. My guess is most of the Brazil "epidemic" is from hysteria, uncovering under-diagnosis from other causes (genetic, environmental, other infectious causes), and utilization of advanced imaging technologies that weren't previously available.

I was listening to the Dr. who authored several studies about this being interviewed on the CBC.  His view is that Zika has likely mutated. And btw this isnt just happening in Brazil. 

But he was also of the view that the virus would probably die off - similar to what happened with the West Nile Virus, as populations in areas in which it has spread develop immunity to the virus.  Unless it continues to mutate of course but the odds of that happening are low.

He has no proof it has mutated.

Ok, I will be sure to let him know.

[Fate]

Looked a bit more into the numbers...

Microcephaly is commonly defined as head circumfrence less than 3 standard deviations below the mean or ~0.1% of all live birth in first world nations. Some authors use 2 standard deviations which is 2.5% of all live births.

There were 3 million total live births in Brazil in 2014 and 147 reported cases of microcephaly in 2014. So 0.005% of live births in Brazil had microcephaly. This number is laughably low and suggests widespread under-diagnosis (by 20 fold) of this condition prior to Zika arriving in Brazil.

3500 reported cases of microcephaly have been reported so far in Brazil in the last few months. That suggests an incidence rate of 0.12%, which is actually pretty close to the normal incidence of microcephaly in the general population if you go by the 3 standard deviation definition. I'm not sure how Brazil defines this and that's actually pretty important, because if they use 2 standard deviations as the definition then the normal microcephaly rate would be 2.5% or 75,000 births/year.

[Ed Anger]

I've sealed my breeding stock into hermetically sealed sub basement. I only had room for 12 white virgins, so I had to let the rest out of the corral.

[PDH]

I say we should all panic.

[Ed Anger]

I say we should all panic.

I've already wet myself.

[LaCroix]

I'm inclined to believe fate. he always provides in depth explanations that make sense, and he doesn't have a track record of being wrong. the only time I remember him being wrong about something medical related was the "this won't cause ebola deaths in the US." and iirc, that was more "well fuck, an accident happened that led to someone actually dying."

doctors aren't like lawyers; the average doctor is usually pretty competent thanks to strict school admission standards.

also

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/01/16/health/what-is-zika-virus.html?_r=0

Normally, about 150 cases of microcephaly are reported, and Brazil says it is investigating more than 3,500 reported cases.

But reporting of suspected cases commonly rises during health crises.

[garbon]

doctors aren't like lawyers; the average doctor is usually pretty competent thanks to strict school admission standards.

I'm inclined to agree all that makes sense, except for perhaps that bit above. After years of interviewing physicians, I'm skeptical of their standard competence.

[LaCroix]

I'm inclined to agree all that makes sense, except for perhaps that bit above. After years of interviewing physicians, I'm skeptical of their standard competence.

maybe it's just more competent than the average attorney then. assumed the years of residency would have helped with the admission standards. but, it's true there are loads of incompetent strivers

[Fate]

I'm certainly in the minority view. Most doctors aren't skeptical of the data and seem to embrace the media narrative. Those in charge also don't seem to be questioning Brazil's statistics prior to 2015 but maybe that will change. We shall see in the next few months to years if there truly was a spike in incidence. Until then I wonder what harm will be caused by telling women to delay pregnancy. Ex. that 33 year old in Nicaragua who waits until she's 35 - all of the sudden her risk of Down's syndrome, complications, and other congenital anomalies skyrockets.

[crazy canuck]

I'm inclined to believe fate. he always provides in depth explanations that make sense, and he doesn't have a track record of being wrong. the only time I remember him being wrong about something medical related was the "this won't cause ebola deaths in the US." and iirc, that was more "well fuck, an accident happened that led to someone actually dying."

doctors aren't like lawyers; the average doctor is usually pretty competent thanks to strict school admission standards.

also

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/01/16/health/what-is-zika-virus.html?_r=0

Normally, about 150 cases of microcephaly are reported, and Brazil says it is investigating more than 3,500 reported cases.

But reporting of suspected cases commonly rises during health crises.

I am a bit more inclined to accept what the guy who actually studies this has to say over some other guy who is still in training and took a brief period of time out of his busy schedule to think about it.

[garbon]

I'm inclined to believe fate. he always provides in depth explanations that make sense, and he doesn't have a track record of being wrong. the only time I remember him being wrong about something medical related was the "this won't cause ebola deaths in the US." and iirc, that was more "well fuck, an accident happened that led to someone actually dying."

doctors aren't like lawyers; the average doctor is usually pretty competent thanks to strict school admission standards.

also

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/01/16/health/what-is-zika-virus.html?_r=0

Normally, about 150 cases of microcephaly are reported, and Brazil says it is investigating more than 3,500 reported cases.

But reporting of suspected cases commonly rises during health crises.

I am a bit more inclined to accept what the guy who actually studies this has to say over some other guy who is still in training and took a brief period of time out of his busy schedule to think about it.

I don't know who you are talking about but I'm not sure what definite thought I'd take from something like this:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2075152-did-zikas-recent-mutations-let-it-explode-as-a-global-threat/

"I suspect the virus may have changed," says Scott Weaver of the University of Texas in Galveston.