http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34687139?ocid=socialflow_facebook&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=facebook
QuoteRussian airliner crashes in central Sinai - Egyptian PM
A Russian airliner has crashed in central Sinai with more than 200 people on board, the office of Egypt's prime minister has confirmed.
The Airbus A-321 had just taken off from the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, on its way to the Russian city of St Petersburg.
There were conflicting reports about the fate of the plane, some suggesting it had disappeared over Cyprus.
Most of the passengers are said to be Russian tourists.
The plane was operated by the small Russian airline Kogalymavia, based in western Siberia. Latest reports say it was carrying 217 passengers and seven crew.
A "Russian civilian plane... crashed in the central Sinai", the office of Egyptian Prime Minister Sharif Ismail said in a statement.
It added that Mr Ismail had formed a crisis committee to deal with the crash.
The Russian aviation authority Rosaviatsiya said in a statement that flight 7K 9268 left Sharm el-Sheikh at 06:51 Moscow time (03:51 GMT) and had been due into St Petersburg's Pulkovo airport at 12:10.
The authority added that the aircraft failed to make scheduled contact with Cyprus air traffic control 23 minutes after take-off and disappeared from the radar.
A centre to help relatives of the passengers has been set up at Pulkovo airport, Tass news agency quoted St Peterburg city officials as saying.
:(
According to AFP an Islamic State affiliate in Egypt claims to have shot the plane down.
Quote from: Liep on October 31, 2015, 09:21:44 AM
According to AFP an Islamic State affiliate in Egypt claims to have shot the plane down.
I saw that, though its not from a 'confirmed IS account, but not sure what the characteristics of an official one is.
I guess it wouldn't be too hard to get a bomb on-board an airliner at the Sinai tourist airport, especially as the province is the seat of an insurgency, so likely to have sympathisers within security or civil/public services?
Not confirmed, and they claimed to have shot it down from the ground. First technical reports from Egypt said it was a mechanical mishap, so it's very unbelievable. But from a Russian perspective it would be beneficial to blame ISIS for this, for one you get a shady Russian aviation company off the hook and you get further justification for warring in Syria during a financial crisis. But that's in :tinfoil:-territory.
Quote from: Liep on October 31, 2015, 09:50:29 AM
Not confirmed, and they claimed to have shot it down from the ground. First technical reports from Egypt said it was a mechanical mishap, so it's very unbelievable. But from a Russian perspective it would be beneficial to blame ISIS for this, for one you get a shady Russian aviation company off the hook and you get further justification for warring in Syria during a financial crisis. But that's in :tinfoil:-territory.
Could go either way. You don't want to be seen as allowing an ISIS retaliation attack to happen. You blow up apartment buildings before the war, not during it.
The same kind of Russian tourists that flew into Kabul once upon a time?!?!?!
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on October 31, 2015, 02:01:37 PM
The same kind of Russian tourists that flew into Kabul once upon a time?!?!?!
Lots of dead children apparently, you know the same as those that get washed up on a Greek beach, die in a caste originated fire-bombing in India or die because their American parent left a gun lying around for someone else to play with.
Is it just me or are there a larger than normal amount of plane crashes these days? :(
Clearly the work of Erdogan. We should probably round up some people, shoot half, then charge the rest for the murders of the those we killed. It's the only way to maintain civil society.
Quote from: Tyr on October 31, 2015, 02:50:41 PM
Is it just me or are there a larger than normal amount of plane crashes these days? :(
I think it's you.
This going to rally the Russian public in favor of the anti-ISIS war? Maybe cause some escalation in Syria, or Putin broadening out into Iraq.
I think the number of planes crashes has stayed very low.
Yeah, I mean what was the last high profile plane crash? The Swiss Alps suicide thing, right? That was more than 6 months ago. With thousands of commercial flights completed each day it is a wonder the crashes per annum are not at least double digit.
Quote from: Razgovory on October 31, 2015, 03:00:26 PM
Clearly the work of Erdogan. We should probably round up some people, shoot half, then charge the rest for the murders of the those we killed. It's the only way to maintain civil society.
Ok...you do that Raz. :wacko:
Quote from: Valmy on October 31, 2015, 05:42:04 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 31, 2015, 03:00:26 PM
Clearly the work of Erdogan. We should probably round up some people, shoot half, then charge the rest for the murders of the those we killed. It's the only way to maintain civil society.
Ok...you do that Raz. :wacko:
Oh, it sounds crazy when
I say it.
Metrojet rules out errors on their part says it must be foul play.
Quote from: Liep on November 02, 2015, 07:41:54 AM
Metrojet rules out errors on their part says it must be foul play.
And we should believe them, why? :yeahright:
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 02, 2015, 08:17:19 AM
Quote from: Liep on November 02, 2015, 07:41:54 AM
Metrojet rules out errors on their part says it must be foul play.
And we should believe them, why? :yeahright:
You definitely shouldn't.
I wonder if we'll ever know what happened. The investigating bodies will likely be Russian and Egyptian.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 02, 2015, 08:39:39 AM
I wonder if we'll ever know what happened. The investigating bodies will likely be Russian and Egyptian.
There are French and European investigators there as well, so it'll be harder to cover things up. Plus, it's kind of hard to cover up or explain away the fact that your tail fell off in flight. "Oh, wait, it wasn't supposed to do that?"
Probably Ukrainian Rebels, supported by Muslim Brotherhood.
Quote from: DGuller on November 02, 2015, 08:45:35 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 02, 2015, 08:39:39 AM
I wonder if we'll ever know what happened. The investigating bodies will likely be Russian and Egyptian.
There are French and European investigators there as well, so it'll be harder to cover things up. Plus, it's kind of hard to cover up or explain away the fact that your tail fell off in flight. "Oh, wait, it wasn't supposed to do that?"
There are standards.
Like what?
No paper. Or paper products.
Quote from: Syt on November 02, 2015, 08:45:50 AM
Probably Ukrainian Rebels, supported by Muslim Brotherhood.
I knew it!
Quote from: Syt on November 02, 2015, 08:45:50 AM
Probably Ukrainian Rebels, supported by Muslim Brotherhood.
:hmm: I'm conflicted by such an explanation.
ISIS has claimed responsibility.
Again?
No.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 03, 2015, 07:44:19 PM
No.
Who in ISIS? Was it an official statement from some guy in Raqqa or was a post on the internet by well wishers in Egypt?
Achmed or Mohammed I think.
Am I to understand that you don't consider my question relevant or that you simply don't know?
Quote from: Razgovory on November 03, 2015, 08:53:07 PM
Am I to understand that you don't consider my question relevant or that you simply don't know?
I don't consider it particularly relevant but I also don't know.
'Sources' in the US say a US satellite detected in the infrared a heat flash from the location in the Sinai at the time the airliner went down. So probably an explosion, either bomb or fuel, but still not necessarily non-accidental.
I've seen talk about there being no heat trail from a missile, so that's ruled out, but who knows if that's detectable, as the source quoted is an off the record one in the US government.
To hit an airplane at that height from the ground would be tricky without a really big missile. Man portable weapons can't hit targets that high.
*shrug* Lady Jaye could always do it. :)
Quote from: mongers on November 03, 2015, 09:46:04 PM
I've seen talk about there being no heat trail from a missile... ...but who knows if that's detectable
I'm pretty sure it's detectable, but you have to be looking in the right place at the right time with the right equipment. Of course, our exact capabilities in satellite recon are highly classified, so maybe it's easier than that suggests, but, as you say, who knows.
The British are freaking out cancelling flights to Sharm El-Sheik because they think it was a bomb that brought down the plane.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-34724604
Quote from: Caliga on November 03, 2015, 10:23:52 PM
*shrug* Lady Jaye could always do it. :)
MOre likely the Russian government will blame the unlikely alliance of the Jews, ISIS, and the American backed Ukrainians. Also, the Russian public will believe it.
another Russian plane crashed in South-Sudan, no foul play involved it seems
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 03, 2015, 09:00:35 PMI don't consider it particularly relevant but I also don't know.
i think it's relevant because ISIS probably wouldn't want to announce responsibility unless it was actually responsible. otherwise, who's gonna believe ISIS when it claims XYZ attacks? some (un?)affiliated group (or nutter) has less to lose by claiming the moon. if russian company says it's not at fault + ISIS officially says it's responsible = more likely to believe ISIS. if nobody important claims responsibility, there's greater likelihood that russian company is at fault.
Quote from: Liep on November 04, 2015, 12:44:50 PM
The British are freaking out cancelling flights to Sharm El-Sheik because they think it was a bomb that brought down the plane.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-34724604
meh. If this meets your standard for "freaking out," your standard is pretty worthless.
It makes sense for ISIS not to claim it. Russia is bombing them but it is also helping them in bombing moderates. They don't want to bring everything onto themselves
The CIA is freaking out and is now saying this might just be terrorism but they need further investigation.
The CIA is freaking out?
I rather doubt that.
CNN is now freaking out as well, citing earlier freaking out of the Brits and Americans.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2015, 04:02:26 PM
CNN is now freaking out as well, citing earlier freaking out of the Brits and Americans.
I am starting to freak out a bit as well.
So I guess that video I saw from ISIS was possibly real.
Quote from: Berkut on November 04, 2015, 04:04:12 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2015, 04:02:26 PM
CNN is now freaking out as well, citing earlier freaking out of the Brits and Americans.
I am starting to freak out a bit as well.
... uh oh.
Should the rest of us start freaking out? :unsure:
Quote from: Jacob on November 04, 2015, 04:21:08 PM
Quote from: Berkut on November 04, 2015, 04:04:12 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2015, 04:02:26 PM
CNN is now freaking out as well, citing earlier freaking out of the Brits and Americans.
I am starting to freak out a bit as well.
... uh oh.
Should the rest of us start freaking out? :unsure:
:berkut:
Quote from: Jacob on November 04, 2015, 04:21:08 PM
Quote from: Berkut on November 04, 2015, 04:04:12 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2015, 04:02:26 PM
CNN is now freaking out as well, citing earlier freaking out of the Brits and Americans.
I am starting to freak out a bit as well.
... uh oh.
Should the rest of us start freaking out? :unsure:
I think so, unless your standard is better than mine.
Maybe the Russians are telling the truth after all?
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/11/04/africa/russian-plane-crash-egypt-sinai/index.html
Quote
CNN)—Days after authorities dismissed claims that ISIS brought down a Russian passenger jet, a U.S. intelligence analysis now suggests that the terror group or its affiliates planted a bomb on the plane.
British Foreign Minister Philip Hammond said his government believes there is a "significant possibility" the plane was brought down by an explosive device. And a Middle East source briefed on intelligence matters also said it appears likely a bomb was placed aboard the aircraft.
Metrojet Flight 9268 crashed Saturday in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula after breaking apart in midair, killing all 224 people on board. It was en route to St. Petersburg from the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.
The latest U.S. intelligence suggests that the plane crash was most likely caused by a bomb on the plane planted by ISIS or an affiliate, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter.
"There is a definite feeling it was an explosive device planted in luggage or somewhere on the plane," the official said, stressing that no formal conclusion had been reached by the U.S. intelligence community.
The assessment was reached, the official said, by looking back at intelligence reports that had been gathered before Saturday's plane crash and intelligence gathered since then. The United States did not have credible or verified intelligence of a specific threat before the crash. However, the official said, "there had been additional activity in Sinai that had caught our attention."
Egyptian authorities haven't publicly responded to reports on U.S. intelligence. Since the crash, they've downplayed the possibility that terrorism could be involved.
Additional intelligence supports the theory that someone at the Sharm el-Sheikh airport helped get a bomb onto the plane, another U.S. official said.
"This airport has lax security. It is known for that," the official said. "But there is intelligence suggesting an assist from someone at the airport. "
The intelligence regarding ISIS involvement, another U.S. official said, in partially based on monitoring of internal messages of the terrorist group. Those messages are separate from public ISIS claims of responsibility, that official said.
In an audio message from ISIS' Sinai branch that was posted on terror-related social media accounts Wednesday, the organization adamantly insisted that it brought down the flight.
"Find your black boxes and analyze them, give us the results of your investigation and the depth of your expertise and prove we didn't do it or how it was downed," the message said. "Die with your rage. We are the ones with God's blessing who brought it down. And God willing, one day we will reveal how, at the time we desire."
Britain, Ireland suspend flights from Egyptian resort city
News of the U.S. intelligence analysis comes hours after British Prime Minister David Cameron's office said a bomb might have caused the crash.
"While the investigation is still ongoing, we cannot say categorically why the Russian jet crashed," the Prime Minister's office said. "But as more information has come to light, we have become concerned that the plane may well have been brought down by an explosive device."
Flights due to leave Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, for the United Kingdom were being delayed his office said, as a precautionary measure to allow British aviation experts to assess security arrangements at the city's airport, Cameron's office said in its statement.
Ireland also said Wednesday that it was suspending all flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh until further notice, according to a statement from the Irish Aviation Authority.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry called the British decision to suspend flights "somewhat premature," as the investigation is not complete.
"We can appreciate, of course, the sense of responsibility and desire to provide protection to UK citizens. This is a desire that we equally share," he told CNN shortly after the British government's announcement. "But I think it is somewhat premature to make declarations related to what might or might not have happened to the aircraft before the investigation is completed and before there is a definitive cause for this crash."
At the airport on Wednesday, tensions quickly boiled over, one British tourist told CNN.
"People have been shouting at officials," said Sarah Cotterill, who was supposed to fly out of Sharm el-Sheikh Wednesday evening with her sister and their five children.
British embassy officials had just arrived at the airport terminal and put the passengers onto buses, she said.
"We are going to stay in a hotel in Sharm el-Sheikh. I don't know where. We don't know anything," she said. "The situation is hectic."
Militant battleground
Sharm el-Sheikh, where Flight 9268 began its journey, is a beach resort dotted with palm trees at the southern tip of the Sinai Peninsula. The plane crashed about 300 kilometers (185 miles) farther north, near a town called Housna, according to Egyptian authorities.
Sinai has been a battleground between ISIS-affiliated militants and Egyptian security forces in recent years. Hundreds have died in the fighting.
The militants appeared to claim responsibility for bringing down the Russian passenger jet in a statement posted online Saturday, but officials in Egypt and Russia have disputed that claim, saying there's no evidence to support it.
The U.S. State Department designated the ISIS Sinai affiliate, originally known as Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, as a foreign terrorist organization in April 2014. ISIS in Sinai is one of the most active of all the ISIS affiliates and has bomb-making capabilities, according to U.S. intelligence. But if the group did plant a bomb on the plane, it would represent an increase in sophistication.
The officials say ISIS has not proved to be nearly as advanced with bomb-making capabilities as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, a group that U.S. national security officials believed were working on nonmetallic bombs to be smuggled onto planes.
"This would be the most significant terrorist attack since 9/11, there's no doubt about that, with the Russian involvement in Syria," CNN terrorism analyst Paul Cruickshank said. "If ISIS really was responsible for this, this will turbocharge their popularity in the global jihadi movement."
Egypt's Interior Ministry said Tuesday that it wasn't stepping up security in Sharm el-Sheikh or at the resort city's airport "because there is no indication (the plane crash) was a terrorist operation."
But the U.S. Embassy in Cairo has sent a security message to its employees, instructing them not to travel anywhere in Sinai pending the outcome of the crash investigation.
State Department spokesman John Kirby told reporters Wednesday that the move had nothing to do with any conclusion about why the plane crashed.
"They did the prudent thing. They do what our posts do around the world every time when there is some security concern -- even when, especially when, we don't know why something happened," he said. "That's even more reason to restrict movement. You don't want people going into harm's way."
Russia vs. ISIS
Russia started launching airstrikes in Syria in September, saying it was coordinating with the country's government to target ISIS and other terrorists.
When news of the crash first broke, an ISIS-affiliated group known as Province of Sinai released a statement claiming responsibility for the crash, saying it had perpetrated the attack "in response to Russian airstrikes that killed hundreds of Muslims on Syrian land," according to Reuters. That claim was disputed by officials, who said ISIS couldn't have fired a missile to bring down the plane.
U.S. officials initially said they doubted Russia's claims that it was targeting ISIS in Syria. But Col. Steve Warren, a spokesman for the U.S. military's Operation Inherent Resolve targeting ISIS in Syria and Iraq, said on Wednesday that some Russian airstrikes were hitting ISIS targets in Syria.
"They've done hundreds of airstrikes at this point. I'm not putting out the count anymore, but they conduct airstrikes, but only a fraction of them have been against (ISIS) targets. And when I say fraction, I'm talking ... 10%," he said.
CNN's Pamela Brown, Elise Labott, Holly Yan, Mick Krever, Christiane Amanpour, Eliott C. McLaughlin, Margot Haddad, Salma Abdelaziz, Alla Eschenko, Ian Lee, Alex Felton, Susannah Cullinane, Sarah Sirgany, Nic Robertson and George Kazarian contributed to this report.
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2015, 03:45:23 PM
It makes sense for ISIS not to claim it. Russia is bombing them but it is also helping them in bombing moderates. They don't want to bring everything onto themselves
Nothing ISIS does makes any sense. I don't find the claim that ISIS or an ISIS affiliate bombed a plane in retaliation for Russian interference in Syria unrealistic. If they did do this, I doubt it would produce a result ISIS would be happy with.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2015, 07:11:45 PMNothing ISIS does makes any sense. I don't find the claim that ISIS or an ISIS affiliate bombed a plane in retaliation for Russian interference in Syria unrealistic. If they did do this, I doubt it would produce a result ISIS would be happy with.
I don't know. The 9/11 bombings worked out pretty well for Al-Qaeda. I don't think Russia is going to have more success with retaliatory adventurism against extremist Muslims in the Middle East than the US did.
Quote from: Jacob on November 05, 2015, 12:49:42 AM
I don't know. The 9/11 bombings worked out pretty well for Al-Qaeda. I don't think Russia is going to have more success with retaliatory adventurism against extremist Muslims in the Middle East than the US did.
Our "retaliatory adventurism" against AQ worked out pretty damn well.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2015, 12:53:00 AM
Our "retaliatory adventurism" against AQ worked out pretty damn well.
I guess it's a matter of perspective.
What's your main metric of success? You got Bin Laden and a number of senior Al Qaeda people, for sure. What else do you reckon goes into the plus column?
Also I'm including the Iraq invasion as part of the calculus as I think it's unlikely it would have happened without the 9/11 attack.
Quote from: Jacob on November 05, 2015, 01:23:59 AM
What's your main metric of success?
We fucked up the people who fucked with us.
ISIS are after escalation, their triumph will come if we end up essentially at war with the 1.7bn muslims rather than some small fraction. I would say that currently the terrorist campaign is going well.
Quote from: mongers on November 04, 2015, 04:29:24 PM
Quote from: Liep on November 04, 2015, 04:23:00 PM
Quote from: Jacob on November 04, 2015, 04:21:08 PM
Quote from: Berkut on November 04, 2015, 04:04:12 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2015, 04:02:26 PM
CNN is now freaking out as well, citing earlier freaking out of the Brits and Americans.
I am starting to freak out a bit as well.
... uh oh.
Should the rest of us start freaking out? :unsure:
I think so, unless your standard is better than mine.
Not The, but certainly a standard:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F3.bp.blogspot.com%2F_hbwV0uHGPX0%2FTHfVm2pyrZI%2FAAAAAAAAAHw%2FAPssNDgX_6I%2Fs1600%2Falbum-Frank-Zappa--The-Mothers-of-Invention-Freak-Out.jpg&hash=20171db9efa5f6ff8314f54947acc14994790017)
le freak, c'est chique?
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 05, 2015, 02:28:41 AM
ISIS are after escalation, their triumph will come if we end up essentially at war with the 1.7bn muslims rather than some small fraction. I would say that currently the terrorist campaign is going well.
sounds like a fast track to the extinction of islam. Not every non-islamic power is as concerned about human life as the West.
Quote from: Jacob on November 05, 2015, 12:49:42 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2015, 07:11:45 PMNothing ISIS does makes any sense. I don't find the claim that ISIS or an ISIS affiliate bombed a plane in retaliation for Russian interference in Syria unrealistic. If they did do this, I doubt it would produce a result ISIS would be happy with.
I don't know. The 9/11 bombings worked out pretty well for Al-Qaeda. I don't think Russia is going to have more success with retaliatory adventurism against extremist Muslims in the Middle East than the US did.
Yep. I think it was done by someone ISIS related so...
1: Punish Russia for bombing Syria/generally being a jerk to muslims
2: Piss Russia off so it acts even more of a dick against muslims and drops even more bombs on Syria (thus bringing ISIS more recruits and paving the way towards the final everyone vs. muslims war).
3: Hopefully get what little political opposition there is in Russia to start opposing the war, thus causing unrest in Russia that will ultimately lead to more picking on muslims.
Not claiming it brings the same positive effects for ISIS as claiming it would (except for a few minor high five moments) whilst claiming it would ensure more of the bombs thrown at Syria come their way.
Quote from: Jacob on November 05, 2015, 01:23:59 AM
I guess it's a matter of perspective.
What's your main metric of success? You got Bin Laden and a number of senior Al Qaeda people, for sure. What else do you reckon goes into the plus column?
Also I'm including the Iraq invasion as part of the calculus as I think it's unlikely it would have happened without the 9/11 attack.
My perspective from the unbombed US is that post-"'retaliatory adventurism' against AQ" is safer than pre-"'retaliatory adventurism' against AQ." Your mileage may vary.
I think that the Iraq invasion would have happened pretty much as it did if Al Qaeda had never existed. I think that the rationalization that it was part of the "War on Terror" was transparently false and am surprised you found it persuasive (to others, at least).
Quote from: Jacob on November 05, 2015, 01:23:59 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2015, 12:53:00 AM
Our "retaliatory adventurism" against AQ worked out pretty damn well.
I guess it's a matter of perspective.
What's your main metric of success? You got Bin Laden and a number of senior Al Qaeda people, for sure. What else do you reckon goes into the plus column?
Also I'm including the Iraq invasion as part of the calculus as I think it's unlikely it would have happened without the 9/11 attack.
Hard to say as once the pressure is off then these groups continue recruiting, hard to stop an ideology. But for a good while AQ and its leadership overall had been seriously depleted to the point where it was mostly unable to plan and carry out large scale attacks. In Iraq's Anbar province where AQ had gained control the Suunis became angry enough with them to fight back to oust them with help during the surge where US, Iraqi military and the Sunni militia fought AQ. AQ leaders there put out communications to stop sending fighters as they were pretty much defeated in Iraq. However, I don't think just war can stop the radical movement but it seems it can certainly drive it down, eliminate leaders and capability, with the resulting losses removing a lot of incentive for new recruits. AQ seemed to be pretty quiet until ISIS showed up but this is a battle that the people of the region need to come to terms with more so than outsiders. US and others can help, provide support and weapons, but the real battle needs to happen with fellow Muslims vs the radicals.
I think it is hard to imagine that if you talked to the people who executed the 9/11 attacks on 9/10, and were able to tell them the overall result, that they would be anything but ecstatic at the results.
I think we played straight into their hands, and reacted almost exactly in the manner they wanted us to react.
Quote from: Jacob on November 05, 2015, 12:49:42 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2015, 07:11:45 PMNothing ISIS does makes any sense. I don't find the claim that ISIS or an ISIS affiliate bombed a plane in retaliation for Russian interference in Syria unrealistic. If they did do this, I doubt it would produce a result ISIS would be happy with.
I don't know. The 9/11 bombings worked out pretty well for Al-Qaeda. I don't think Russia is going to have more success with retaliatory adventurism against extremist Muslims in the Middle East than the US did.
Well, the leader along with large numbers it's personnel are now dead, they lack a safe haven in which to operate, it's no longer clear if the leadership has any power over its cells, the group has failed to pull off large scale attacks on American soil since and the group has yet to achieve it's goal of driving out western influence in the Muslim world.. More recently it has been marginalized by ISIS. That doesn't seem like a strong showing. What did you have in mind.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2015, 01:58:42 PM
Well, the leader along with large numbers it's personnel are now dead, they lack a safe haven in which to operate, it's no longer clear if the leadership has any power over its cells, the group has failed to pull off large scale attacks on American soil since and the group has yet to achieve it's goal of driving out western influence in the Muslim world.. More recently it has been marginalized by ISIS. That doesn't seem like a strong showing. What did you have in mind.
Arguably ISIS is an AQ splinter, and much of their growth outside their immediate area has come from flipping AQ affiliates. It might have been inevitable or just bad timing, but ISIS was there to take over the psychological mantle from AQ after we capped the Big Bad.
Quote from: Berkut on November 05, 2015, 01:52:44 PM
I think it is hard to imagine that if you talked to the people who executed the 9/11 attacks on 9/10, and were able to tell them the overall result, that they would be anything but ecstatic at the results.
I think we played straight into their hands, and reacted almost exactly in the manner they wanted us to react.
I disagree. AQ as a political movement has been pretty much eliminated, with none of their goals accomplished. There are some regional splinter groups that use the AQ name, but they don't have the same goals as AQ. ISIS has replaced AQ as the Sunni resistance de jour, and whole sections of AQ affiliates are flipping to ISIS. ISIS is not an ideological successor to AQ at all; in fact, armed local AQ-affiliated factions fight ISIS where they don't join them.
If AQ was attempting to commit the organizational equivalent of "suicide by cop," then "we" reacted exactly as they wanted "us" to react. Otherwise, the West reacted far more strongly than they wanted.
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on November 05, 2015, 02:45:38 PM
Arguably ISIS is an AQ splinter, and much of their growth outside their immediate area has come from flipping AQ affiliates. It might have been inevitable or just bad timing, but ISIS was there to take over the psychological mantle from AQ after we capped the Big Bad.
ISIS is a movement hostile to AQ and with very different goals. It is not at all a splinter. ISIS is to AQ as Buddhism was to Confucianism, not as Calvinism was to Lutheranism.
So the same day the British allows flights to Sharm el Sheik again the Russians cancel them. I hope we never figure out what happened, watching these guys change their minds about what the best outcome is is more fun.
Quote from: grumbler on November 06, 2015, 07:28:15 AM
Quote from: Berkut on November 05, 2015, 01:52:44 PM
I think it is hard to imagine that if you talked to the people who executed the 9/11 attacks on 9/10, and were able to tell them the overall result, that they would be anything but ecstatic at the results.
I think we played straight into their hands, and reacted almost exactly in the manner they wanted us to react.
I disagree. AQ as a political movement has been pretty much eliminated, with none of their goals accomplished.
I look at this more generally - the goal of AQ was to drag the US more directly into the ME conflict, and in that they succeeded admirably. The entire point, IMO, of terrorism is to hit the target and force them to over-react.
Now, it is certainly the case that it is a ridiculously blunt tool. You cannot know HOW your target is going to react, so the goal isn't really to get them to do some specific thing, since there is no way to control the reaction.
Rather, the goal is to simply create more chaos, more violence, more uncertainty - the idea is to upset the apple cart, because you don't like the apple cart. What replaces it is likely unknown and unknowable, but if your position is that the status quo is not acceptable, then what replaces it isn't as important as making sure that you destroy that status quo.
I think AQ knew there was a pretty good chance that whatever happened, their own freedom to act would be incredibly curtailed, since they would certainly be targeted with prejudice. But the overall goal of a Islamic state is still served, even if it means some other organization will be the one that runs with it. The key is creating the space to allow that to happen by fomenting the political chaos necessary.
I don't buy the idea that IS is NOT the ideological successor to AQ. I think they clearly are, even if the particulars of each group might mean that they fight or join them. That is just detail.
The goal of AQ was always to drive Westerners and Western influence from the Muslim world. In this, they failed. AQ was of the opinion that the war in Afghanistan destroyed the Soviet Union. The believed they could cause the same collapse of the US. Again, this did not happen and is unlikely to happen. Their goals were always unrealistic so they were pretty much set up to fail.
Speaking to Ukranian co-worker today: The Russians did it.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2015, 01:35:32 AM
We fucked up the people who fucked with us.
Quote from: grumbler on November 05, 2015, 10:48:47 AMMy perspective from the unbombed US is that post-"'retaliatory adventurism' against AQ" is safer than pre-"'retaliatory adventurism' against AQ." Your mileage may vary.
I think that the Iraq invasion would have happened pretty much as it did if Al Qaeda had never existed. I think that the rationalization that it was part of the "War on Terror" was transparently false and am surprised you found it persuasive (to others, at least).
Fair enough in both cases.
I guess my question is "at what cost". If AQ (or ISIS on their part) are coming at it from a perspective of "provoke them into expending too many resources, stoke resistance, our losses don't matter, our people will break them in the end" then it could very much still be a success from their POV even while what you say remains true - AQ got fucked over and the US is safer than it was.
Ultimately it's a disagreement with Raz's position that ISIS - if they are responsible - will not like Russia's response. I think it's very possible that they're hoping to provoke a heavy handed response that'll cause Russia to over-commit and get a bloody nose in the Afghanistan vein.
As for AQ and al-Qaeda, the US has done a good job of wrecking it. I don't know (not rhetorical, I'm genuinely not sure) to what extent the larger war in Iraq contributed to that, but it seems to me that the results of that war are still being played out. To the extent that AQ is/was radical in their beliefs (as opposed to being inclined towards worldy power and only using radicalism as a tool), I think AQ's goal was to stir up shit.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2015, 01:58:42 PM
Well, the leader along with large numbers it's personnel are now dead, they lack a safe haven in which to operate, it's no longer clear if the leadership has any power over its cells, the group has failed to pull off large scale attacks on American soil since and the group has yet to achieve it's goal of driving out western influence in the Muslim world.. More recently it has been marginalized by ISIS. That doesn't seem like a strong showing. What did you have in mind.
Fomenting radical Islamic revolutionary opposition to the US (and other secular powers, incl. Russia), showing that the US is not untouchable, and draining US treasure and ultimately US will to fight Muslims in the Middle East.
The pot got stirred pretty thoroughly in the Middle East, and for radical Islamic revolutionaries the chaos is more beneficial than a more peaceful status quo. Sure, ISIS isn't AQ, but it isn't over yet either. And if the agenda is something other than "AQ must rule" - e.g. encouraging radical Islam as a political force on a global scale, undermining Western global standing, or affecting the religious and political landscape in the Middle East to be more favourable to radical Sunni Islam - they got some pretty good results out of 9/11.
I think it's very possible that ISIS - and AQ before them - are happy to spin the wheel. So yeah, provoking Russia to strike heavily against ISIS may be exactly what they're looking for, thinking they can pull off an Afghanistan situation.
Like I said, a matter of perspective. It may not be how AQ/ ISIS look at things - or how individuals within those organizations look at them - but I don't think it's that far-fetched either.
Quote from: grumbler on November 06, 2015, 07:31:25 AM
ISIS is a movement hostile to AQ and with very different goals. It is not at all a splinter. ISIS is to AQ as Buddhism was to Confucianism, not as Calvinism was to Lutheranism.
Depends what you mean by "splinter" - my understanding is that it traces its origins to the old Al-Qaeda in Iraq organization, which was as per its name affiliated with the Al-Qaeda brand, albeit with some misgivings and concerns on the Al Qaeda side. I would say it qualifies as a splinter, but agree that there are serious differences as to goals and methods.
Quote from: Jacob on November 06, 2015, 03:53:06 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2015, 01:58:42 PM
Well, the leader along with large numbers it's personnel are now dead, they lack a safe haven in which to operate, it's no longer clear if the leadership has any power over its cells, the group has failed to pull off large scale attacks on American soil since and the group has yet to achieve it's goal of driving out western influence in the Muslim world.. More recently it has been marginalized by ISIS. That doesn't seem like a strong showing. What did you have in mind.
Fomenting radical Islamic revolutionary opposition to the US (and other secular powers, incl. Russia), showing that the US is not untouchable, and draining US treasure and ultimately US will to fight Muslims in the Middle East.
The pot got stirred pretty thoroughly in the Middle East, and for radical Islamic revolutionaries the chaos is more beneficial than a more peaceful status quo. Sure, ISIS isn't AQ, but it isn't over yet either. And if the agenda is something other than "AQ must rule" - e.g. encouraging radical Islam as a political force on a global scale, undermining Western global standing, or affecting the religious and political landscape in the Middle East to be more favourable to radical Sunni Islam - they got some pretty good results out of 9/11.
I think it's very possible that ISIS - and AQ before them - are happy to spin the wheel. So yeah, provoking Russia to strike heavily against ISIS may be exactly what they're looking for, thinking they can pull off an Afghanistan situation.
Like I said, a matter of perspective. It may not be how AQ/ ISIS look at things - or how individuals within those organizations look at them - but I don't think it's that far-fetched either.
Remember they have very grand goals, they don't want to just drain the US treasury they want the US and the Western world to collapse. It's questionable that even the limited goals you outline. Radical Islam is not force on a global scale, it's still confined to the Muslim world. I don't think Western standing has been undermined much in the last 15 years, and what has been undermined has little to do AQ. I don't know if Radical Sunni Islam has a more favorable standing then it did prior to 9/11. Iraq has fallen into Shia Iran's sphere and Yemen's government is beset by Houthi rebels so it's a bit of a wash.
If you consider AQ's goal as "Cause chaos and kill people" then yeah, they won. If you use AQs own publicized goals then no, they haven't gain much. Not only have they failed, but their capacity to attain those goals has been diminished.
ISIS has a somewhat different goal the AQ. They intend to set up a viable Islamic state. At this point they have succeeded. Their position is precarious, however, and if their enemies coordinate their actions then will lose their territory and cease to have a functioning state.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 06, 2015, 04:51:12 PM
ISIS has a somewhat different goal the AQ. They intend to set up a viable Islamic state. At this point they have succeeded. Their position is precarious, however, and if their enemies coordinate their actions then will lose their territory and cease to have a functioning state.
Not quite. Their goal is to establish the "Islamic State", comprising all territory historically held by muslims (look out Spain!). Their goal is not just to set up one independent muslim-run country among many.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2015, 04:56:00 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 06, 2015, 04:51:12 PM
ISIS has a somewhat different goal the AQ. They intend to set up a viable Islamic state. At this point they have succeeded. Their position is precarious, however, and if their enemies coordinate their actions then will lose their territory and cease to have a functioning state.
Not quite. Their goal is to establish the "Islamic State", comprising all territory historically held by muslims (look out Spain!). Their goal is not just to set up one independent muslim-run country among many.
I think their end goal is to establish Islamic Earth not just the historic Muslim bits.
Charlie Hebdo making new friends:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CTHpZIGW4AANtpK.jpg)
Quote from: Liep on November 06, 2015, 05:50:41 PM
Charlie Hebdo making new friends:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CTHpZIGW4AANtpK.jpg)
Oh well, now I know for certain that I'm not a very nice person; that's funny. Quite clever too given some of the stories floating around contrasting the crudity of the weapons used in the Russian bombing compared to the West's "smart" weapons.
Oh yeah, they are known for being super clever. :rolleyes:
Quote from: garbon on November 06, 2015, 07:07:05 PM
Oh yeah, they are known for being super clever. :rolleyes:
If they are, they aren't living up to it. It's one thing to make a tasteless joke. It's another to make a tasteless joke that isn't actually funny.
It's worth noting that one of the first challenges Putin had to face was the Chechen attack on that school. The way he responded did a lot to solidify his popularity with the Russian people.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 06, 2015, 07:23:21 PM
It's worth noting that one of the first challenges Putin had to face was the Chechen attack on that school. The way he responded did a lot to solidify his popularity with the Russian people.
:huh: Which school are we talking about? Beslan happened many years into Putin's presidency, and that response was by no means something that even Russian media prostitutes could spin in a positive direction.
What solidified Putin's popularity was starting a second war in Chechnya as a prime minister, and a relentless propaganda extolling his virtues as a decisive leader on all the major TV stations owned by oligarchs.
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2015, 07:28:49 PM
:huh: Which school are we talking about? Beslan happened many years into Putin's presidency, and that response was by no means something that even Russian media prostitutes could spin in a positive direction.
What I read at the time was that his response that it was his fault, for being too weak, went over very well.
Maybe you mean the apartment bombings that helped boost Putin's popularity and ensured his election to the Presidency?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 06, 2015, 07:51:24 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2015, 07:28:49 PM
:huh: Which school are we talking about? Beslan happened many years into Putin's presidency, and that response was by no means something that even Russian media prostitutes could spin in a positive direction.
What I read at the time was that his response that it was his fault, for being too weak, went over very well.
I don't remember that, either at the time or mentioned later, not that it didn't happen. There is no doubt that he was using Beslan as a pretext for further entrenching his rule, just like he was using prior terrorist acts, but only the apartment building bombings directly raised his popularity, in my recollection.
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 06, 2015, 08:18:14 PM
Maybe you mean the apartment bombings that helped boost Putin's popularity and ensured his election to the Presidency?
No, Beslan.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 06, 2015, 08:26:02 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 06, 2015, 08:18:14 PM
Maybe you mean the apartment bombings that helped boost Putin's popularity and ensured his election to the Presidency?
No, Beslan.
But how is it one of the first challenges Putin had to face? Just form the top of my head, without looking up Wiki, he had apartment building bombings, Kursk, and Nord Ost all before Beslan.
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2015, 08:28:33 PM
Just form the top of my head
Would you prefer ovoid or rectangular?
Look, I'm just giving my impression. I wasn't looking for a thesis defense. I don't even remember some of the things you mentioned.
Pinpoint.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 06, 2015, 08:31:45 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2015, 08:28:33 PM
Just form the top of my head
Would you prefer ovoid or rectangular?
Look, I'm just giving my impression. I wasn't looking for a thesis defense. I don't even remember some of the things you mentioned.
I think DG is saying you have a false impression. Beslan happened during his second term in office. There was a similar incident a few years earlier at an opera house. Both the Opera thing and Beslan were pretty badly bungled. At least from the a Western impression. From a Russian impression it may have gone great. They have a bad habit of dealing with hostage situations by killing the hostages. I suppose that is an effective deterrent.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 06, 2015, 09:19:21 PM
I think DG is saying you have a false impression.
No shit Sherlock.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 06, 2015, 07:12:36 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 06, 2015, 07:07:05 PM
Oh yeah, they are known for being super clever. :rolleyes:
If they are, they aren't living up to it. It's one thing to make a tasteless joke. It's another to make a tasteless joke that isn't actually funny.
So you didn't notice the poke at both sides of "be careful of the consequences of your actions", then? It's obvious for the Islamic side from the posture of the militant but that it's aimed at both sides is clear from the wording of the caption.
It's not the only subtlety in that cartoon that you seem to have missed. I'd expect that from Raz, but not from you Garbon. :hmm:
Well I can't say I'm surprised that you would like trash. :(
Quote from: Agelastus on November 07, 2015, 04:44:21 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 06, 2015, 07:12:36 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 06, 2015, 07:07:05 PM
Oh yeah, they are known for being super clever. :rolleyes:
If they are, they aren't living up to it. It's one thing to make a tasteless joke. It's another to make a tasteless joke that isn't actually funny.
So you didn't notice the poke at both sides of "be careful of the consequences of your actions", then? It's obvious for the Islamic side from the posture of the militant but that it's aimed at both sides is clear from the wording of the caption.
It's not the only subtlety in that cartoon that you seem to have missed. I'd expect that from Raz, but not from you Garbon. :hmm:
That's not exactly subtle. There no shame in liking childish, stupid comics, but you can't expect the rest of us to be amused by such dreck.
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2015, 08:23:45 PMI don't remember that, either at the time or mentioned later, not that it didn't happen. There is no doubt that he was using Beslan as a pretext for further entrenching his rule, just like he was using prior terrorist acts, but only the apartment building bombings directly raised his popularity, in my recollection.
is there evidence putin had a master plan to get in power and stay in power? seems more like a human response rather than a cleverly masterminded ploy. i don't know enough about early putin, though, so it's possible.
Quote from: LaCroix on November 07, 2015, 01:27:02 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2015, 08:23:45 PMI don't remember that, either at the time or mentioned later, not that it didn't happen. There is no doubt that he was using Beslan as a pretext for further entrenching his rule, just like he was using prior terrorist acts, but only the apartment building bombings directly raised his popularity, in my recollection.
is there evidence putin had a master plan to get in power and stay in power? seems more like a human response rather than a cleverly masterminded ploy. i don't know enough about early putin, though, so it's possible.
You can never answer for certain in Russia. Nothing is ever transparent there, so you have to read the tea leaves, and always leave yourself open to falling for a conspiracy theory. From my vantage point, it sure seems like Putin had a master plan from the very beginning to firmly reinstall autocracy in Russia under his rule, and was waiting for events to happen to be used as pretexts for some of the more potentially alarming power plays.
Is Putin a planet or not?
Putin is actually a star for better or worse, since he has groupies, both in the left and right now. :(
Looks like the French will have company
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/russian-plane-crashes-in-the-sinai/metrojet-crash-traces-explosives-found-wreckage-kremlin-says-n464676
QuoteMOSCOW — Traces of explosives have been found in the debris of the passenger jet that crashed in Egypt last month, the Kremlin announced on Tuesday as it unveiled a $50 million reward in the case.
Alexander Bortnikov, the chief of the country's FSB domestic security agency, said that a bomb equivalent to 2.2 pounds of TNT exploded on board the aircraft, according to the Kremlin.
"You can definitely say that this is a terrorist act," Bortnikov told a meeting of Russia's Security Council on Monday.
The FSB, which is the successor to the KGB, also offered the $50 million reward for information on who brought down the jet.
Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to hunt the perpetrators, saying that "we will find them anywhere on the globe, and punish them."
He added: "We won't be wiping tears from our souls and hearts. It will stay with us forever. But that won't stop us from finding and punishing the criminals."
Putin also used the announcement to reaffirm Russia's commitment to airstrikes in Syria, where Moscow says it is bombing ISIS, the group that claimed responsibility for downing the plane.
"Our air operation in Syria will not just continue — it must be strengthened so the criminals understand retribution is imminent," Putin said, according to the Kremlin's statement.
The Metrojet crash left 224 people dead, most of them Russian tourists.
The Airbus A321 broke up in midair some 20 minutes into its journey from resort town Sharm el-Sheikh to St. Petersburg on Oct. 31.
U.S. officials have told NBC News earlier this month that intelligence intercepts picked up chatter between ISIS operatives boasting about taking down an airliner after the passenger plane crashed in the Sinai.
Russia says it will double the amount of airstrikes on IS now.
Quote from: Liep on November 17, 2015, 09:37:32 AM
Russia says it will double the amount of airstrikes on IS now.
2 times zero is still zero :P
Can ISIS somehow get China involved? I feel like they are missing here.
Quote from: Valmy on November 17, 2015, 09:42:20 AM
Can ISIS somehow get China involved? I feel like they are missing here.
This is actually pretty scary. All kinds of great- and regional powers are involved, technically almost-allies but with decidely different agendas, embroiling in an insanely complex factional civil war itself part of a complex regional power struggle. World Wars have started from 10% of such clusterfuck.
Quote from: Valmy on November 17, 2015, 09:42:20 AM
Can ISIS somehow get China involved? I feel like they are missing here.
They can drop lead contaminated pet food on ISIS.
Quote from: Tamas on November 17, 2015, 09:43:59 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 17, 2015, 09:42:20 AM
Can ISIS somehow get China involved? I feel like they are missing here.
This is actually pretty scary. All kinds of great- and regional powers are involved, technically almost-allies but with decidely different agendas, embroiling in an insanely complex factional civil war itself part of a complex regional power struggle. World Wars have started from 10% of such clusterfuck.
It seems that after the Russian airliner downing being confirmed a terrorist attack, and after the Paris attacks, Putin is a lot more inclined to focus attacks on ISIS rather than on Assad's Syrian opponents, if recent news reports are accurate. Russia and the US are saying they're working on a process to remove Assad from power and have elections a year or more from now. That all seems quite new and quite a change that the Russians are in some agreement there. New calls from France for the US, France, Russia to work together against ISIS. So it seems that things are changing a bit significantly and towards more cooperation.
Quote from: Tamas on November 17, 2015, 09:41:11 AM
2 times zero is still zero :P
Heard on the radio this morning that Russia launched SLCM and Backfire stikes on Raqqa last night.
Quote from: Tamas on November 17, 2015, 09:41:11 AM
Quote from: Liep on November 17, 2015, 09:37:32 AM
Russia says it will double the amount of airstrikes on IS now.
2 times zero is still zero :P
Beat me to it.