We're doomed :weep: :tinfoil:
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http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/electromagnetic-pulse-one-day-we-will-wake-up-in-an-america-without-electricity-and-society-will-totally-break-down
QuoteElectromagnetic Pulse: One Day We Will Wake Up In An America Without Electricity And Society Will Totally Break Down
By Michael Snyder, on October 6th, 2015
What would you do if the power grid went down and never came back up? One of these days, and it could be a lot sooner than most people think, we will all wake up in a country without electricity. And considering how utterly dependent we have become on technology, that is a very frightening scenario to consider. How would Americans react if nothing worked? Just imagine a world where everything electronic is dead. I am talking about lights, cell phones, computers, televisions, ATMs, heating and cooling systems, credit card readers, gas pumps, cash registers, refrigerators, hospital equipment etc. When the power goes out for a few hours, that can be a major inconvenience, but what if it went out all over the nation and it didn't come back on for months or even years? This is one of the greatest potential threats that the United States is facing, and yet very few people are even talking about it.
An electromagnetic pulse attack could potentially send our nation back to the 1800s in a single moment, but very few of us are equipped to handle life without technology. Tech guru John McAfee recently wrote an article in which he expressed his belief that 90 percent of the population would be dead within 2 years of such an attack...
QuoteExperts agree that an all out cyber attack, beginning with an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attack on our electronic infrastructure, would wipe out 90% of the human population of this country within two years of the attack. That means the death of 270 million people within 24 months after the attack.
You may think that is an unreasonably high estimate, but it turns out that it is the exact same number that the EMP Commission used in their report to Congress back in 2008...
QuoteWhat would a successful EMP attack look like? The EMP Commission, in 2008, estimated that within 12 months of a nationwide blackout, up to 90% of the U.S. population could possibly perish from starvation, disease and societal breakdown.
In 2009 the congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, whose co-chairmen were former Secretaries of Defense William Perry and James Schlesinger, concurred with the findings of the EMP Commission and urged immediate action to protect the electric grid. Studies by the National Academy of Sciences, the Department of Energy, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the National Intelligence Council reached similar conclusions.
So what has Barack Obama done to protect us from such an attack?
Absolutely nothing.
But there are others in the government that are very, very concerned about this threat. For example, NORAD recently moved back into Cheyenne Mountain, and the potential for an EMP attack was given as the primary reason for the move...
QuoteThe Pentagon is moving the headquarters for the North American Aerospace Defense Command (Norad) back into Cheyenne Mountain near Colorado Springs, Colo., a decade after having largely vacated the site.
Why the return? Because the enormous bunker in the hollowed-out mountain, built to survive a Cold War-era nuclear conflict, can also resist an electromagnetic-pulse attack, or EMP. America's military planners recognize the growing threat from an EMP attack by bad actors around the world, in particular North Korea and Iran.
An EMP strike, most likely from the detonation of a nuclear weapon in space, would destroy unprotected military and civilian electronics nationwide, blacking out the electric grid and other critical infrastructure for months or years. The staggering human cost of such a catastrophic attack is not difficult to imagine.
For years, most experts have assumed that an EMP attack would be conducted by exploding at least one nuclear weapon high up in our atmosphere. And that could definitely happen someday. But now governments all over the world are working on other ways to deliver an EMP strike, and many of them do not involve nuclear weapons at all.
The U.S. government is among those that have been doing this kind of research. The U.S. Air Force now reportedly has the capability to conduct an EMP assault against individual buildings or power stations. The following comes from the Daily Mail...
QuoteFor years, scientists have been attempting to create such a weapon as part of Champ, or the Counter-electronics High-powered microwave Advanced Missile Project.
Now, the US Air Force claims it has advanced the technology, and says it can deploy it using the stealthy Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range (JASSM).
There are fears a well targeted attack could knock out multiple power stations.
'This technology marks a new era in modern-day warfare,' said Keith Coleman, CHAMP program manager for Boeing Phantom Works.
And we also know that Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have also been developing EMP weapons. This next excerpt comes from DefenseNews...
QuoteThe possibility of man-made EMP events has grown in tandem with the technological sophistication of America's adversaries. It is widely known that both Russia and China already have this capability, and both countries have carried out serious work relating to the generation of EMP in recent years as part of their respective military modernization programs.
Now, rogue states Iran and North Korea may not be that far behind. Iran, for example, is known to have simulated a nuclear EMP attack several years ago using short-range missiles launched from a freighter. North Korea, meanwhile, has acquired the blueprints to build an EMP warhead, and in July of 2013, a North Korean freighter made it all the way to the Gulf of Mexico with two nuclear capable missiles in its hold.
Why are these other nations developing these technologies?
To use them against us someday of course.
Many are particularly concerned about what Iran has been doing. In a piece for an Israeli news source, author Dr. Peter Vincent Pry explained that Iranian military documents actually discuss conducting such an attack against the United States...
QuoteIranian military documents describe such a scenario–including a recently translated Iranian military textbook that endorses nuclear EMP attack against the United States.
Thus, Iran with a small number of nuclear missiles can by EMP attack threaten the existence of modernity and be the death knell for Western principles of international law, humanism and freedom. For the first time in history, a failed state like Iran could destroy the most successful societies on Earth and convert an evolving benign world order into world chaos.
And it wouldn't take much to completely disrupt electricity generation in America. In a previous article, I discussed a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission report which made the following jaw dropping statement...
Quote"Destroy nine interconnection substations and a transformer manufacturer and the entire United States grid would be down for at least 18 months, probably longer."
Are you starting to get the picture?
We are far more vulnerable than most people realize.
And even if we are never attacked by an EMP weapon, scientists tell us that it is inevitable that a massive solar storm will produce a similar result someday anyway. Back in 1859, a massive solar storm that came to be known as "the Carrington Event" fried telegraph machines all over Europe and North America.
NASA says that there is a 12 percent chance that a similar solar storm will hit us within the next ten years, and if that happens the consequences will be absolutely catastrophic...
QuoteNASA is warning that there's a 12 percent chance an extreme solar storm will hit Earth in the next decade, sending out massive shock waves that would knock out grids across the world.
The economic impact of this doomsday scenario could exceed $2 trillion — or 20 times the cost of Hurricane Katrina, according to the National Academy of Sciences.
I don't know why more people aren't concerned about this. There are things that the federal government could do to harden our electrical grid, but they aren't doing them.
This is a foreseeable danger, but our "leaders" are not taking it seriously.
And even if nobody ever purposely attacks us, scientists insist that it is only a matter of time before the sun unleashes an electromagnetic pulse that fries our electronics. In fact, we have had some very close calls in recent years. The following is an excerpt from a book that I co-authored with Barbara Fix entitled "Get Prepared Now"...
QuoteMost people have absolutely no idea that the Earth barely missed being fried by a massive EMP burst from the sun in 2012 and in 2013. And earlier in 2014 there was another huge solar storm which would have caused tremendous damage if it had been directed at our planet. If any of those storms would have directly hit us, the result would have been catastrophic. Electrical transformers would have burst into flames, power grids would have gone down and much of our technology would have been fried. In essence, life as we know it would have ceased to exist – at least for a time. These kinds of solar storms have hit the Earth many times before, and experts tell us that it is inevitable that it will happen again.
It amazes me that such a small percentage of the population is taking this threat seriously.
An electromagnetic pulse could bring down our entire society in a single moment at any time, and all of the experts assure us that it will happen someday.
But our politicians are just sitting on their hands and most Americans mock the idea that we need to be concerned about this.
So what do you think? Please feel free to add to the discussion by posting a comment below...
No need to be a pessimist, just try to make sure that you're part of the 10% that survives. It might seem hard if you don't have a useful post-apocalypse skill, but all you really need is a rifle and a strong stomach.
[Edit: Would cars work in this scenario?]
I suspect some of the newer ones would stop working. :hmm:
I have long argued for underground cities.
Quote from: The Brain on October 18, 2015, 09:21:28 AM
I have long argued for underground cities.
We could be Morlocks. :)
Just for one day. :(
Dumbest Timmay-linked article ever? Probably, unless he has seriously cited some Jesus-rose-dinosaurs article.
Quote from: grumbler on October 18, 2015, 09:29:22 AM
Dumbest Timmay-linked article ever? Probably, unless he has seriously cited some Jesus-rose-dinosaurs article.
At least he put a :tinfoil: smilie. Siege wouldn't.
Quote from: grumbler on October 18, 2015, 09:29:22 AM
Dumbest Timmay-linked article ever? Probably, unless he has seriously cited some Jesus-rose-dinosaurs article.
This is pretty stupid.
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 18, 2015, 08:45:32 AM
I suspect some of the newer ones would stop working. :hmm:
Probably any of them with a computer chip. Older models would be fine, at least as long as they had gas in the tank.
The Tea Party in Texas was driving hard last legislative session for us to blow billions trying to protect our power infrastructure from EMP attack :bleeding: :lol:
Fruitcakes.
Quote from: Valmy on October 18, 2015, 12:34:58 PM
The Tea Party in Texas was driving hard last legislative session for us to blow billions trying to protect our power infrastructure from EMP attack :bleeding: :lol:
Fruitcakes.
We have to protect America.
Except against the one thing that is most likely to kill one of us. Nothing to do there.
Quote from: sbr on October 18, 2015, 12:54:51 PM
Except against the one thing that is most likely to kill one of us. Nothing to do there.
Heart disease?
EMPs are a massively overrated threat.
Quote from: Valmy on October 18, 2015, 12:34:58 PM
The Tea Party in Texas was driving hard last legislative session for us to blow billions trying to protect our power infrastructure from EMP attack :bleeding: :lol:
Fruitcakes.
Why is it crazy? Even if no one attacks us we will eventually be hit with a major solar event that will cause the same kind of damage. Sounds like the only sane legislation the Tea Party has pushed for.
How long would WoW be down
I've heard a lot of concern over this threat the past few years, what exactly makes it "stupid" or "unfeasible"? :unsure:
Quote from: Alcibiades on October 18, 2015, 06:42:38 PM
I've heard a lot of concern over this threat the past few years, what exactly makes it "stupid" or "unfeasible"? :unsure:
I don't think civilization would collapse because the electricity stopped working for a while.
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 18, 2015, 09:32:30 AM
Quote from: grumbler on October 18, 2015, 09:29:22 AM
Dumbest Timmay-linked article ever? Probably, unless he has seriously cited some Jesus-rose-dinosaurs article.
At least he put a :tinfoil: smilie. Siege wouldn't.
My comment may have been more meme-related than serious.
A big solar flare sounds almost worth the $2 trillion price tag:
QuoteOn September 1–2, 1859, one of the largest recorded geomagnetic storms (as recorded by ground-based magnetometers) occurred. Aurorae were seen around the world, those in the northern hemisphere as far south as the Caribbean; those over the Rocky Mountains in the US were so bright that their glow awoke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning. People in the northeastern US could read a newspaper by the aurora's light.The aurora was visible as far from the poles as Sub-Saharan Africa (Senegal, Mauritania, perhaps Monrovia, Liberia), Monterrey and Tampico in Mexico, Queensland, Cuba and Hawaii.
Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases giving telegraph operators electric shocks.Telegraph pylons threw sparks. Some telegraph operators could continue to send and receive messages despite having disconnected their power supplies.
Quote from: Alcibiades on October 18, 2015, 06:42:38 PM
I've heard a lot of concern over this threat the past few years, what exactly makes it "stupid" or "unfeasible"? :unsure:
The only "attack" that could affect such large areas would be a very, very rare (couple of times a decade, but in all directions) solar flare, and we would have plenty of time to shut down the grid before it hit. Even nukes in the upper atmosphere, or EMP weapons, affect only relatively small areas, because they don't last that long (and thus don't build up charges except at close ranges). Lightning produces EMP but only for very brief periods and thus is even shorter-ranged.
It makes sense to protect high-voltage power transmission lines against EMP, since they are common and, due to their length, most susceptible to EMP from lightening and the like. Other than that, the payoff for protection falls off quickly. Buy a surge protector, but don't worry about trying to be among the ten percent of humans still alive in two years.
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on October 18, 2015, 07:13:08 PM
A big solar flare sounds almost worth the $2 trillion price tag:
QuoteOn September 1–2, 1859, one of the largest recorded geomagnetic storms (as recorded by ground-based magnetometers) occurred. Aurorae were seen around the world, those in the northern hemisphere as far south as the Caribbean; those over the Rocky Mountains in the US were so bright that their glow awoke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning. People in the northeastern US could read a newspaper by the aurora's light.The aurora was visible as far from the poles as Sub-Saharan Africa (Senegal, Mauritania, perhaps Monrovia, Liberia), Monterrey and Tampico in Mexico, Queensland, Cuba and Hawaii.
Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases giving telegraph operators electric shocks.Telegraph pylons threw sparks. Some telegraph operators could continue to send and receive messages despite having disconnected their power supplies.
Or you could, you know, turn things off before it arrives.
I'm glad to see John McAfee cited.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 18, 2015, 04:46:47 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 18, 2015, 12:34:58 PM
The Tea Party in Texas was driving hard last legislative session for us to blow billions trying to protect our power infrastructure from EMP attack :bleeding: :lol:
Fruitcakes.
Why is it crazy? Even if no one attacks us we will eventually be hit with a major solar event that will cause the same kind of damage. Sounds like the only sane legislation the Tea Party has pushed for.
We are the State of Texas. We do not have billions to spend on stuff like this and this is the same group who constantly battles every tiny bit of government spending on badly needed things. Oh but lets blow all of our money protecting us against terrorist attacks.
But come on now. You are quoting some conspiracy theory website quoting John McAfee, a known paranoid nutcase. So...yeah not think sanity is the big deal here. I suspect Obama and the non-Tea Partiers are not scrambling to spend billions protecting everything is because they probably are getting advised by people who are not paranoid nutcases doing their research on conspiracy websites.
Quote from: Valmy on October 18, 2015, 07:58:57 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 18, 2015, 04:46:47 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 18, 2015, 12:34:58 PM
The Tea Party in Texas was driving hard last legislative session for us to blow billions trying to protect our power infrastructure from EMP attack :bleeding: :lol:
Fruitcakes.
Why is it crazy? Even if no one attacks us we will eventually be hit with a major solar event that will cause the same kind of damage. Sounds like the only sane legislation the Tea Party has pushed for.
We are the State of Texas. We do not have billions to spend on stuff like this and this is the same group who constantly battles every tiny bit of government spending on badly needed things. Oh but lets blow all of our money protecting us against terrorist attacks.
But come on now. You are quoting some conspiracy theory website quoting John McAfee, a known paranoid nutcase. So...yeah not think sanity is the big deal here. I suspect Obama and the non-Tea Partiers are not scrambling to spend billions protecting everything is because they probably are getting advised by people who are not paranoid nutcases doing their research on conspiracy websites.
He quoted numerous non-nutcase sources -_-
We could fall back on steam power and form steampunk societies.
Quote from: Jaron on October 18, 2015, 10:22:37 PM
We could fall back on steam power and form steampunk societies.
Too many people needing too much juice.
Quote from: grumbler on October 18, 2015, 07:23:21 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on October 18, 2015, 06:42:38 PM
I've heard a lot of concern over this threat the past few years, what exactly makes it "stupid" or "unfeasible"? :unsure:
The only "attack" that could affect such large areas would be a very, very rare (couple of times a decade, but in all directions) solar flare, and we would have plenty of time to shut down the grid before it hit. Even nukes in the upper atmosphere, or EMP weapons, affect only relatively small areas, because they don't last that long (and thus don't build up charges except at close ranges). Lightning produces EMP but only for very brief periods and thus is even shorter-ranged.
It makes sense to protect high-voltage power transmission lines against EMP, since they are common and, due to their length, most susceptible to EMP from lightening and the like. Other than that, the payoff for protection falls off quickly. Buy a surge protector, but don't worry about trying to be among the ten percent of humans still alive in two years.
The "threat" i always see used is an enemy detonating several nukes in the atmosphere above the US wiping out everything.
The book One Second After is a pretty interesting fictional novel on what could happen. In the book everything electronic gets fried so nothing works, cars, public works, etc. Food doesn't get delivered and people start to starve, 50% of the American people on meds die, all the old people die, all the fat people die from heart attacks/high cholesterol, Roving criminals start taking what they want without law enforcement to stop them, etc. Was interesting.
http://www.amazon.com/One-Second-After-William-Forstchen/dp/0765356864
Why would fat people die of heart attacks without electronics?
If anything, fat people would be eating less due to supply problems.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 19, 2015, 02:32:05 AM
Why would fat people die of heart attacks without electronics?
I think the idea is that they'd have heart attacks because they'd be going without their cholesterol medication. The fallacy there being the idea that cholesterol meds for a fat person are the same as insulin for an insulin-dependent diabetic.
So what happens to data stored on servers? Does it get permanently lost?
What about a disconnected external hard drive?
What I don't get with these scenarios is how permanent the damage is - not only does it destroy electronics, it apparently destroys them forever and ever, and nobody can ever build any replacements for all eternity.
Pretty powerful effect.
Protecting electronics from an EMP isn't that difficult. It's not hard to build a Faraday cage.
Quote from: Razgovory on October 19, 2015, 09:15:31 AM
Protecting electronics from an EMP isn't that difficult. It's not hard to build a Faraday cage.
Do you have a lot of experience building electronic devices? :unsure:
Quote from: Jaron on October 18, 2015, 10:22:37 PM
We could fall back on steam power and form steampunk societies.
No. We cannot let nerdy freaks run the world.
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 19, 2015, 09:27:31 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 19, 2015, 09:15:31 AM
Protecting electronics from an EMP isn't that difficult. It's not hard to build a Faraday cage.
Do you have a lot of experience building electronic devices? :unsure:
It's not an electronic device. A chicken coop is a Faraday cage.
I don't like this thread :mad:, I can't respond in my favorite manner:
Quote from: lustindarkness on October 09, 2015, 11:38:36 AM
Most of the world's problems we discuss here in languish could be solved by nukes from orbit. Lately it looks like we may need more nukes.
Nuking from orbit may not be the only way to be sure in regards of avoiding the effects of EMPs. :(
Quote from: Alcibiades on October 19, 2015, 02:13:17 AM
The "threat" i always see used is an enemy detonating several nukes in the atmosphere above the US wiping out everything.
The book One Second After is a pretty interesting fictional novel on what could happen. In the book everything electronic gets fried so nothing works, cars, public works, etc. Food doesn't get delivered and people start to starve, 50% of the American people on meds die, all the old people die, all the fat people die from heart attacks/high cholesterol, Roving criminals start taking what they want without law enforcement to stop them, etc. Was interesting.
http://www.amazon.com/One-Second-After-William-Forstchen/dp/0765356864
Okay, but I was referring to real stuff, not novels. Nukes in the upper atmosphere wouldn't much effect vehicles, for instance, because they are metal and EMP stops when it hits metal (lots of buildings would be safe, too). Plus, the EMP bursts are too short to rally build up high voltages at anything but short ranges. An enemy that used all their nukes to get upper-atmosphere bursts to knock out US electronics would be vaporized by the US response (which wouldn't be aiming at getting an EMP effect, but more like the glass effect). Then, the US imports some trons from China or Europe, and life goes on.
Hate to say it, but Grumbler has the right of it.
I bet the 'prepper' crowd I know are going nuts (well maintaining them) this stuff up.
People must have it good, to be able to waste their valuable lifespan worrying about highly unlikely and/or implausible threats.
Quote from: mongers on October 19, 2015, 05:03:19 PM
People must have it good, to be able to waste their valuable lifespan worrying about highly unlikely and/or implausible threats.
Much more pleasant than constantly looking over one's shoulder for real threats, like most animals do.
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on October 18, 2015, 08:41:55 AM
No need to be a pessimist, just try to make sure that you're part of the 10% that survives. It might seem hard if you don't have a useful post-apocalypse skill, but all you really need is a rifle and a strong stomach.
[Edit: Would cars work in this scenario?]
they require electricity to start, so no.
Quote from: Alcibiades on October 19, 2015, 02:13:17 AM
The "threat" i always see used is an enemy detonating several nukes
Hmm well if the claim is that a strike of multiple nuclear weapons would be a bad thing, then its hard to argue. Not sure we needed a lot of committee reports to figure that one out.
Quote from: viper37 on October 20, 2015, 10:59:09 AM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on October 18, 2015, 08:41:55 AM
No need to be a pessimist, just try to make sure that you're part of the 10% that survives. It might seem hard if you don't have a useful post-apocalypse skill, but all you really need is a rifle and a strong stomach.
[Edit: Would cars work in this scenario?]
they require electricity to start, so no.
I think it's primarily electronics that's damaged by EMP.
Quote from: grumbler on October 19, 2015, 02:41:47 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on October 19, 2015, 02:13:17 AM
The "threat" i always see used is an enemy detonating several nukes in the atmosphere above the US wiping out everything.
The book One Second After is a pretty interesting fictional novel on what could happen. In the book everything electronic gets fried so nothing works, cars, public works, etc. Food doesn't get delivered and people start to starve, 50% of the American people on meds die, all the old people die, all the fat people die from heart attacks/high cholesterol, Roving criminals start taking what they want without law enforcement to stop them, etc. Was interesting.
http://www.amazon.com/One-Second-After-William-Forstchen/dp/0765356864
Okay, but I was referring to real stuff, not novels. Nukes in the upper atmosphere wouldn't much effect vehicles, for instance, because they are metal and EMP stops when it hits metal (lots of buildings would be safe, too). Plus, the EMP bursts are too short to rally build up high voltages at anything but short ranges. An enemy that used all their nukes to get upper-atmosphere bursts to knock out US electronics would be vaporized by the US response (which wouldn't be aiming at getting an EMP effect, but more like the glass effect). Then, the US imports some trons from China or Europe, and life goes on.
Yeah, I don't know the science of it, just what I've read in articles and that book. If that's true then it allays a lot of potential problems. :)
Quote from: The Brain on October 20, 2015, 11:51:31 AM
I think it's primarily electronics that's damaged by EMP.
Electronics because, though they have very short pathways, they are very sensitive to excessive voltage. The transformers associated with high-voltage electrical transmission lines because, while they are not very sensitive to excessive voltage, they are attached to what amounts to very large antennae that capture a lot of voltage.
Car electronics are not very vulnerable because they are inside metal cages.
Modern cars, however, are not nearly as metal as they used to be - my Subaru, for example, has a metal frame but the body panels are some kind of plastic.
This is the standard exaggeration of a threat to get people all worked up, but the threat itself does exist. A high altitude EMP weapon could have very damaging effects on infrastructure. The part that I think is kind of silly in the doomsday scenarios is the idea that the damage would somehow be impossible to recover from, like all humans will just become helpless to figure out how to adapt and repair the damage.
Quote from: Berkut on October 20, 2015, 02:01:45 PM
Modern cars, however, are not nearly as metal as they used to be - my Subaru, for example, has a metal frame but the body panels are some kind of plastic.
There is still a good amount of metal in the engine compartment, where most of the sensitive and critical electronics sit. You might lose some convenience accessories in the passenger cabin, but the ignition and timing systems should be fine.
QuoteThis is the standard exaggeration of a threat to get people all worked up, but the threat itself does exist. A high altitude EMP weapon could have very damaging effects on infrastructure. The part that I think is kind of silly in the doomsday scenarios is the idea that the damage would somehow be impossible to recover from, like all humans will just become helpless to figure out how to adapt and repair the damage.
It's one of those things that the average person doesn't know enough detail about and has been trumped up in lots of fiction over the decades. It makes for a convenient way to selectively cripple technology as a plot device, but the reality is not nearly as scary or dangerous as is frequently portrayed.
http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf
Quote from: Berkut on October 20, 2015, 02:01:45 PM
Modern cars, however, are not nearly as metal as they used to be - my Subaru, for example, has a metal frame but the body panels are some kind of plastic.
True. The less metal there is, the further from the source of the EMP the car will be affected.
QuoteThis is the standard exaggeration of a threat to get people all worked up, but the threat itself does exist. A high altitude EMP weapon could have very damaging effects on infrastructure. The part that I think is kind of silly in the doomsday scenarios is the idea that the damage would somehow be impossible to recover from, like all humans will just become helpless to figure out how to adapt and repair the damage.
Also true, and the fearmongers ignore the fact that every lightning bolt is a source of EMP, so it's not like EMP is some mysterious force that we never see except in the doomsday scenarios. Surge protectors are there to protect against lightning-induced EMP in the electrical lines far more than against direct lightning strikes on the power lines.
Since Grumbler is not responding to me and I have a serious question for him would someone ask it for me?
I know Grumbler served on panels in the Navy regarding logistics and some science related issues. I would to know if he dealt with the issue of EMPs while working in the Navy.
Quote from: Razgovory on October 20, 2015, 08:18:08 PM
Since Grumbler is not responding to me and I have a serious question for him would someone ask it for me?
I know Grumbler served on panels in the Navy regarding logistics and some science related issues. I would to know if he dealt with the issue of EMPs while working in the Navy.
yw
DOOM grows ever more likely.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2015/11/09/solar_storms_new_evidence_that_the_sun_twice_erupted_violently_in_the_middle.html
QuoteWhen the Sun Went Medieval on Our Planet
In the years 774 and 993 AD, the Earth was attacked from space.
Not by aliens, but by a natural event — and it was very, very powerful.
Whatever it was, it subtly altered the chemistry of our planet's atmosphere, creating trace amounts of radioactive elements like chlorine-36, beryllium-10, and carbon-14. And those provide the clue to what the event was: Those isotopes are created when high-energy protons slam into our air. That means the source must have been from space.
These must have been huge waves of subatomic particles that slammed into us on those dates. Spikes in the abundances of those elements were found all over the world, including ice cores from the Arctic and Antarctic, Chinese corals, and more. Generating that many particles isn't easy, and only extremely violent events can do it.
Several possible sources have been considered. One candidate is that the Earth got caught in the beam from a gamma-ray burst, the mind-crushingly powerful demise of a very high mass star. I wrote about this being the possible cause of the 774 event in an earlier article. However, GRB impacts don't usually create 10Be due to the detailed physics of the blast, so that makes a GRB as the source shaky. Plus, they're very rare events, so having two happen in as many centuries is extremely unlikely (I didn't know about the 993 AD event when I wrote that article, or else I would've been a lot more likely to wonder about other sources).
New research studying the amounts of these radioactive materials in ice cores points to a different culprit, one I wouldn't have thought possible: the Sun.
The Sun generates ridiculously strong magnetic fields in its interior, and these can store vast amounts of energy. They can release this energy explosively on the surface, creating intense solar flares. Sometimes the loops of magnetism do this far above the Sun's surface, creating what are called coronal mass ejections. These are less intense (that is, less concentrated bursts of energy) than flares, but far larger and more powerful; think of flares versus CMEs like solar tornadoes versus hurricanes.
You can find out more about these events in the Crash Course Astronomy episode I did on the Sun:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qik5bcHCGxU
I also have a chapter in my book Death from the Skies! about solar storms and their effects on Earth.
When I wrote about the 774 AD event on this blog before, I mentioned that a flare or coronal mass ejection was unlikely to be the source due to the amount of energy needed to create these radioactive elements. However, that new research indicates that the Sun is the most likely culprit for this interplanetary assault, and that, in turn, means the Sun can produce more powerful events than we previously thought.
Yikes.
We've known for a long time that the Sun is capable of producing huge magnetic explosions. In 2003 it let rip a series of solar storms so powerful that one of them set the record for the biggest flare seen in modern times. And the strongest known was also very first solar explosion ever seen — called the Carrington Event, after an astronomer who studied it — happened in 1859. It created aurora as far south as Mexico and Hawaii! Events like that can also create what are called geomagnetically induced currents (GICs): The Earth's magnetic field shakes so violently that it induces currents in conductors on the ground. Telegraph operators reported being able to send messages even though the power was disconnected; enough electricity was flowing through the lines to work the devices.
There's more. In 2012 the Sun blew out another blockbuster that was in many ways the equal of the one in 1859, but happily for us it was sent off in another direction, and missed the Earth. Had it hit us, the huge flux of charged particles would have overloaded satellites. Worse, the GIC would've caused widespread power failures and blackouts. A much smaller solar storm in 1989 did just that in Quebec.
It's not clear if the 774 and 993 events were that powerful or more; it's hard to scale these things without direct measurements. But the astronomers who did the research estimate the 774 event (the more powerful of the pair) was five times stronger than any solar storm seen in the modern satellite era (starting in 1956) up to 2005.
I'll admit, that's scary. Our modern civilization depends on our electronic devices, and those in turn depend on electricity and satellites. A blast hitting the Earth from a storm as big as any of those four historical events would be bad. Very bad. The 1989 power surge blew out huge transformers in North America, and these can take months to replace. Imagine months without electricity, and you start to get an idea of how disastrous this can be.
We don't know how often the Sun throws a tantrum as large as these, but clearly it's done so at least four times in the past millennium or so — probably more, since three of them hit the Earth, and we only knew of the fourth due to our space-based astronomical assets. Statistically speaking, most will miss us, so they're likely more common than we thought.
This is a threat we need to take very seriously. Unfortunately, it's extremely expensive to mitigate. Our power grid in the US was constructed decades ago when our use of electricity was much lower. It was designed with lots of spare room for more power flowing through it, but over the years our appetite has grown, and the grid is currently very nearly at capacity. Big spikes now can cripple huge areas.
We need to upgrade the grid, add more capacity, more capability to handle surges induced by solar storms. The good news is there are studies being done to see what we can do to prevent widespread blackouts, and NASA is on it as well. We also have eyes on the Sun, including NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, and scientists monitor "space weather" constantly.
By coincidence, just last night I read that the White House is looking into this situation pretty seriously, and I'm very glad to hear it. A monster solar storm may be the biggest and most immediate threat there is from space, but it's one we can handle if we're prepared for it.
Glad to see you are now copying in pasting the correct links. <_<
One article from Slate is as good as another.
Quote from: garbon on November 09, 2015, 07:10:44 PM
Glad to see you are now copying in pasting the correct links. <_<
:huh:
The Bad Astronomy blog is well regarded
Edit: Noticed the issue, fixed.
Quote
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.
Quote from: mongers on November 10, 2015, 06:52:31 AM
Quote
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.
I just have one thing to add.
LEONARD BERNSTEIN!
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on November 10, 2015, 06:56:44 AM
Quote from: mongers on November 10, 2015, 06:52:31 AM
Quote
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.
I just have one thing to add.
LEONARD BERNSTEIN!
:D
It's a good song with a great sentiment to it, yet when you print out the lyrics they mostly don't make a whole lot of sense. :cool: