Poll
Question:
How many years will it be before an American can safely visit Baghdad and travel through Iraq? (pick the first date that will be safe)?
Option 1: 10 years from now
votes: 2
Option 2: 20 years from now
votes: 4
Option 3: 30 years from now
votes: 5
Option 4: 40 years from now
votes: 3
Option 5: Greater than 40 years (basically never in our lifetimes)
votes: 10
I'm curious on this one.
I'm not sure how to vote, but I suspect it will be quite a bit longer than Iran.
Depends on what you gauge "safely" as. Can you safely visit E. St. Loius or Gary, ID??
Quote from: 11B4V on June 11, 2014, 08:16:02 PM
Depends on what you gauge "safely" as. Can you safely visit E. St. Loius or Gary, ID??
Yes.
For purposes of this poll, I'd consider Mexico City to be safe. Obviously there are objective dangers, but it isn't crazy to visit or move there permanently without armed escort. I think that is a good criteria for what is safe.
Quote from: alfred russel on June 11, 2014, 08:17:38 PM
Quote from: 11B4V on June 11, 2014, 08:16:02 PM
Depends on what you gauge "safely" as. Can you safely visit E. St. Loius or Gary, ID??
Yes.
Then your set.
The deteriorating situation in Iraq is not what the Obama administration expected when it withdrew the last American troops from there in 2011. In a March 2012 speech, Antony J. Blinken, who is Mr. Obama's deputy national security adviser, asserted that "Iraq today is less violent" than "at any time in recent history."
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/12/world/middleeast/iraq-asked-us-for-airstrikes-on-militants-officials-say.html
Quote from: Phillip V on June 11, 2014, 08:36:56 PM
The deteriorating situation in Iraq is not what the Obama administration expected when it withdrew the last American troops from there in 2011. In a March 2012 speech, Antony J. Blinken, who is Mr. Obama's deputy national security adviser, asserted that "Iraq today is less violent" than "at any time in recent history."
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/12/world/middleeast/iraq-asked-us-for-airstrikes-on-militants-officials-say.html
Shhh, dont tell Raz.
What 11b4v says.
Any poor country is a bit risky. You could visit now and potentially be ok. Potentially not. But the same goes for Manilla.
Planning your next vacation? :ph34r:
Quote from: Phillip V on June 11, 2014, 08:36:56 PM
The deteriorating situation in Iraq is not what the Obama administration expected when it withdrew the last American troops from there in 2011. In a March 2012 speech, Antony J. Blinken, who is Mr. Obama's deputy national security adviser, asserted that "Iraq today is less violent" than "at any time in recent history."
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/12/world/middleeast/iraq-asked-us-for-airstrikes-on-militants-officials-say.html
Sometimes politicians say things publicly that they don't believe privately. It's not like Obama could say "Iraqis are fucked no matter what, we needed to wash our hands of this mess ASAP." Republicans would lose their shit over him cursing in public, for one.
How long did it take for Americans to be able to safely visit Beirut?
Quote from: Warspite on June 12, 2014, 04:44:12 AM
How long did it take for Americans to be able to safely visit Beirut?
Is Beirut safe to visit now? I don't know but my assumption is no.
Beirut's pretty safe as far as I know. Though I wouldn't travel to the south of Lebanon for sure.
Iraq's capital was probably somewhat safe for a westerner before ISIS came along in strength but not now and certainly not in the future unless the Iraqi govt. and military can oppose the radicals. So far the track record on that has been poor and if they can get their act together it will be a long term civil war, just like in Syria.
Quote from: Warspite on June 12, 2014, 04:44:12 AM
How long did it take for Americans to be able to safely visit Beirut?
This is sort of what I was thinking. A place like Vietnam was obviously not a place Americans wanted to visit in my parent's generation, but is now firmly on the tourist trail.
However, Iraq feels a bit different. I have a feeling American tourists may be hitting up Tehran before Baghdad.
Who would want to, anyway?
Quote from: derspiess on June 12, 2014, 09:17:14 AM
Who would want to, anyway?
My grandpa was in Baghdad in the 50s. I have a few rugs he bought then. He said it was lovely there.
THATS NOT A PERSON
Quote from: alfred russel on June 12, 2014, 08:15:08 AM
Quote from: Warspite on June 12, 2014, 04:44:12 AM
How long did it take for Americans to be able to safely visit Beirut?
This is sort of what I was thinking. A place like Vietnam was obviously not a place Americans wanted to visit in my parent's generation, but is now firmly on the tourist trail.
However, Iraq feels a bit different. I have a feeling American tourists may be hitting up Tehran before Baghdad.
SRSLY Israeli Tourists go to Tehran. It's not a matter of animosity, it's a matter of chaos. If a strong and capable government takes control in Baghdad it will be safe. Beirut is safe due to the fact that the strong and capable factions there choose not to kidnap westerners.
Quote from: Viking on June 12, 2014, 11:41:07 AM
SRSLY
Practicing leaving out all the vowels for your holy book? I like it.
'People! Never utter the holy name of XPTRQ!
Um couldn't if we wanted to Viking-Moses'
Quote from: Valmy on June 12, 2014, 11:44:27 AM
Quote from: Viking on June 12, 2014, 11:41:07 AM
SRSLY
Practicing leaving out all the vowels for your holy book? I like it.
'People! Never utter the holy name of XPTRQ!
Um couldn't if we wanted to Viking-Moses'
SRSLY is a much cooler non-deity than JHWH
He promotes bacon and beer and bikinis and approves of gay sex and shrimp and cheeseburgers
Quote from: Viking on June 12, 2014, 11:51:13 AM
Quote from: Valmy on June 12, 2014, 11:44:27 AM
Quote from: Viking on June 12, 2014, 11:41:07 AM
SRSLY
Practicing leaving out all the vowels for your holy book? I like it.
'People! Never utter the holy name of XPTRQ!
Um couldn't if we wanted to Viking-Moses'
SRSLY is a much cooler non-deity than JHWH
Nu-uh.
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmarkbiwwa.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F05%2F15-Best-Versions-of-Cool-Jesus-Cool-Jesus-08.jpeg&hash=6da67b0060adee04484f068f3f96bd2c1c5ed2dc)
Quote from: Barrister on June 12, 2014, 11:54:10 AM
Quote from: Viking on June 12, 2014, 11:51:13 AM
Quote from: Valmy on June 12, 2014, 11:44:27 AM
Quote from: Viking on June 12, 2014, 11:41:07 AM
SRSLY
Practicing leaving out all the vowels for your holy book? I like it.
'People! Never utter the holy name of XPTRQ!
Um couldn't if we wanted to Viking-Moses'
SRSLY is a much cooler non-deity than JHWH
Nu-uh.
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmarkbiwwa.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F05%2F15-Best-Versions-of-Cool-Jesus-Cool-Jesus-08.jpeg&hash=6da67b0060adee04484f068f3f96bd2c1c5ed2dc)
did I proclaim SRSLY to be cooler than bro jesus? Did I make that claim?
Yeah most of Iran's fine to visit. If it's not for Americans that's probably more because of your laws (a la Cuba) than anything else.
Baghdad though feels a bit more like Mogadishu or DRC. You can visit, if you've money to pay a big security team.
Quote from: Malthus on June 12, 2014, 10:58:55 AM
Quote from: derspiess on June 12, 2014, 09:17:14 AM
Who would want to, anyway?
Archaeology.
I was reading a book on ancient Iraq and it struck me how all new discoveries seemed to cease ~1980. I think it is going to be a bit longer before the work picks up in a big way (although I'm sure looters are thorougly excavating the sites as we speak).
Fuck knows, but voted 30 years. Surely a strongman will have come along by then.
Quote from: Viking on June 12, 2014, 11:41:07 AM
It's not a matter of animosity, it's a matter of chaos. If a strong and capable government takes control in Baghdad it will be safe. Beirut is safe due to the fact that the strong and capable factions there choose not to kidnap westerners.
Yep.
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 12, 2014, 12:21:13 PM
Yeah most of Iran's fine to visit. If it's not for Americans that's probably more because of your laws (a la Cuba) than anything else.
No, it's because the Iranians will arrest an American on trumped up charges and demand money for his or her release.
Quote from: alfred russel on June 11, 2014, 08:13:13 PM
I'm curious on this one.
Stop comparing the Middle East to the Axis.
Germany and friends were not muslim.
Quote from: derspiess on June 12, 2014, 10:06:14 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 12, 2014, 12:21:13 PM
Yeah most of Iran's fine to visit. If it's not for Americans that's probably more because of your laws (a la Cuba) than anything else.
No, it's because the Iranians will arrest an American on trumped up charges and demand money for his or her release.
Dunno, I know plenty of Americans that have been to Iran without much trouble. As Viking says, it's more a matter of effective government control and rule of the law (even if such law is unsavory, you know what you can and can't do) than animosity.
I've heard Iran is pretty safe.
Its laws are fucked up but it has effective rule of law.
Plus any crooks will figure you've probably got secret police watching you so they better not try anything.
Quote from: The Brain on June 12, 2014, 12:44:34 PM
Fuck knows, but voted 30 years. Surely a strongman will have come along by then.
You mean a dictator like Saddam, or Assad, or Mubarak?
Quote from: Siege on June 13, 2014, 12:30:58 PM
Quote from: The Brain on June 12, 2014, 12:44:34 PM
Fuck knows, but voted 30 years. Surely a strongman will have come along by then.
You mean a dictator like Saddam, or Assad, or Mubarak?
Yeah. Remember back when those guys were in charge? Those were the days.