Poll
Question:
What will the People's Republic of China look like in 30 years?
Option 1: Glass, Precambrian-level microbe activity flourishing despite background radiation (Neil and CDM option).
votes: 4
Option 2: Neo-Maoist hellhole, Bo Xilai style.
votes: 1
Option 3: Splintered, competing, independent or semi-independent states and factions.
votes: 1
Option 4: Similar, CPC dominated, but deep in to middle-income trap. Declining growth, elite capture of wealth.
votes: 12
Option 5: Similar, CPC dominated. Continued growth, instability, Communist Party dominance.
votes: 4
Option 6: Similar, CPC dominated but more Singapore-ish. Increasing role of inclusive institutions, relative political liberalism.
votes: 5
Option 7: End of one-party rule, union with Taiwan, continued growth and prosperity and something resembling Liberal Democracy.
votes: 1
Option 8: Full-on Liberal Democracy, autonomy for ethnic enclaves, massive Environmental clean-up, lions and lambs partying together.
votes: 0
Option 9: Massive China-dominated East Asia Empire, not recognizably authoritarian, basically Yellow Peril nightmare bullshit.
votes: 5
Option 10: Other
votes: 0
Option 11: Jaron
votes: 1
I don't know if I am going to vote, but interested in other people's opinions.
Southeast Asia will become more integrated into China. There are already a lot of ethnic Chinese in Cambodia and Laos.
There's been a large Chinese diaspora population there since the Ming dynasty. At least.
Could someone change it to "not recognizably democratic"? That was a misstatement.
What about end of Communist rule, but governed by a clique of goon like Russia?
Civil war-torn ecological wasteland. Fifty million die.
Ruling the world from a throne of blood
It will be full of zombies.
I can't decide. Is this poll binding btw?
Quote from: Valmy on November 16, 2013, 05:48:09 PM
Ruling the world from a throne of blood
Hey. That is my job.
Boner can afford to have two of everything. Two thrones, two houses...
:lol:
I saw what you did there.
I'd guess option 4 but with more open Putin-esque gangsterism.
Its in for a rough patch with its population troubles, it will get old before it gets rich.
The CCP breaking their promise to make people rich could mean their downfall. Doubt it'll be to be replaced by a lovely democracy however. Russia looks most likely.
China's going to have much bigger problems than what the CCP or their artificial economy will look like.
Quote"...China will face a growing number of young men who will never marry due to the country's one-child policy, which has resulted in a reported birth ratio of almost 120 boys for every 100 girls...By 2030, projections suggest that more than 25% of Chinese men in their late 30s will never have married. The coming marriage squeeze will likely be even more acute in the Chinese countryside, since the poor, uneducated and rural population will be more likely to lose out in the competition for brides."
http://www.forbes.com/sites/china/2011/05/13/chinas-growing-problem-of-too-many-single-men/
China has a long and extremely bloody history of violent and prolonged peasant revolts and civil wars over the centuries that have fundamentally affected dynastic politics, some of which were predicated by droughts, floods and other natural disasters.
You think the Yuan and Ming dynasties had problems with civil wars over natural disasters? Just wait until you have a shitload of peasants that can't find a date.
So ronery.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 16, 2013, 09:13:45 PM
You think the Yuan and Ming dynasties had problems with civil wars over natural disasters? Just wait until you have a shitload of peasants that can't find a date.
I don't think it'll go that far. Its already a big problem for poor men from the countryside to find someone. The crime rate is higher as a result but generally they just mope on with their lives and keep trying.
Quote from: Tyr on November 16, 2013, 09:20:21 PM
I don't think it'll go that far. Its already a big problem for poor men from the countryside to find someone. The crime rate is higher as a result but generally they just mope on with their lives and keep trying.
The same can be said for rubes in Kansas, but never underestimate the impact not getting laid can do for a society, particularly in the numbers they're projecting, please see:
Islam, lack of coed ice cream socials in
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 16, 2013, 09:13:45 PM
China's going to have much bigger problems than what the CCP or their artificial economy will look like.
Quote"...China will face a growing number of young men who will never marry due to the country's one-child policy, which has resulted in a reported birth ratio of almost 120 boys for every 100 girls...By 2030, projections suggest that more than 25% of Chinese men in their late 30s will never have married. The coming marriage squeeze will likely be even more acute in the Chinese countryside, since the poor, uneducated and rural population will be more likely to lose out in the competition for brides."
http://www.forbes.com/sites/china/2011/05/13/chinas-growing-problem-of-too-many-single-men/
China has a long and extremely bloody history of violent and prolonged peasant revolts and civil wars over the centuries that have fundamentally affected dynastic politics, some of which were predicated by droughts, floods and other natural disasters.
You think the Yuan and Ming dynasties had problems with civil wars over natural disasters? Just wait until you have a shitload of peasants that can't find a date.
It may not be as bad as all that. There are tons of undocumented girls born in the countryside, and there are whores everywhere in the cities.
I really wish you people would stop pissing on my Chinapocalypse parade.
I saw in the paper today that China is reversing its 1-child policy and closing down "re-education" labor camps.
Too rittle, too rate.
Fertile women from other other countries can be imported.
Oh yeah, because Chinese history has so many great episodes of ethnic harmony.
Honestly, the one child policy is a bit of a myth anyway. There are so many exceptions and ways to get around it (including paying a pretty insignificant fine). I've met tons of people born after '81 with siblings, including one girl who has 8 of them. :lol:
The worst thing about it is that it's destroying the only thing the PRC offers the world other than depressed wages and despair, which is the phenotype of its women.
Coasting along with option 4, a thoroughly corrupt steady state basically; though 30 years being quite a while there is always the possibility of some sort of calamity throwing things off track. I'd say the most likely potential causes of triggering an actual breakdown are:
1 - a power transition getting out of hand with two powerful cliques at odds and refusing to back down.
2 - some sort of foreign policy miscalculation spiraling out of control. It could be over some stupid island, North Korea, a terrorist attack, Taiwan, or something else; but it'd be some sort of tough foreign policy stance for domestic consumption triggering a cycle of nationalist driven escalation.
3 - any kind of domestic grievance trigging the popular imagination; there are so many. Maybe the various security services can keep a lid on things the next thirty years, but it's far from given.
... of course, it could even be a combination of things. But if nothing like that happens, option 4.
Quote from: Ideologue on November 16, 2013, 09:53:36 PM
The worst thing about it is that it's destroying the only thing the PRC offers the world other than depressed wages and despair, which is the phenotype of its women.
There are plenty of them left, don't worry.
Apparently Vietnam has way more women than men. You should look into that.
I was truly born 30 years too late.
Quote from: Ideologue on November 17, 2013, 12:34:09 AM
I was truly born 30 years too late.
2 DOLLA GI JOE. ME LOVE YOU LONG TIME.
I have some optimism for China because it is a one-party state that has at least managed leadership transitions within its ruling clique; unlike the Arab world, for instance, there's a culture of peaceful political change to some basic extent. So I went with the "looks a bit more like Singapore" option. Perhaps even moving a rittle to the reft... a rittle bit more...
Quote from: Ed Anger on November 17, 2013, 07:19:54 AM
Quote from: Ideologue on November 17, 2013, 12:34:09 AM
I was truly born 30 years too late.
2 DOLLA GI JOE. ME LOVE YOU LONG TIME.
Before HIV swept through SE Asia, too.
Middle income trap, but more S'pore-ish and liberal. The Chicom leadership will have realized that the mechanisms of elite reproduction in a capitalist republic are less prone to instability than those of a one-party state, so they'll be slowly shifting in that direction. The middle income trap also won't seem that abnormal, since the First World will have been experiencing similar phenomena for close to four decades.
China can't just replicate the Singapore model because China is not as homogeneous as Singapore. There's no urban/rural divide in Singapore and no real rich/poor divide.
I think the biggest problem for the CP is corruption. Not because it would be impossible to stamp out, but because if it were stamped out it might be very, very difficult to attract and retain talent in the party, given the opportunity to acquire wealth in the private sector.
Some people are more interested in power than wealth, and if corruption is stamped out then wealth will be less easily converted into power.
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on November 17, 2013, 03:43:15 PM
Some people are more interested in power than wealth, and if corruption is stamped out then wealth will be less easily converted into power.
But if corruption is stamped out, that also means less power for agents of the government.
LOL, stamping out Chinese corruption, an element of society and government since before the time of Christ. Easier off stamping out noodles.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 17, 2013, 04:38:32 PM
LOL, stamping out Chinese corruption, an element of society and government since before the time of Christ. Easier off stamping out noodles.
I don't think that's true.
Quote from: Ideologue on November 17, 2013, 12:34:09 AM
I was truly born 30 years too late.
We should do our patriotic duty by trying to draw away even more Chinese women the West.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 17, 2013, 04:40:55 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 17, 2013, 04:38:32 PM
LOL, stamping out Chinese corruption, an element of society and government since before the time of Christ. Easier off stamping out noodles.
I don't think that's true.
Institutional corruption is something Chinese bureaucracy and administration of their provinces has had to deal with since the Qin, and it's always been a major theme when it came to reasons for dynastic breakdowns as well as in the post-imperial age.
It's simply a cultural cornerstone of the Chinese way of doing things, from the Legalists to the Communists.
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 17, 2013, 06:21:46 PM
Quote from: Ideologue on November 17, 2013, 12:34:09 AM
I was truly born 30 years too late.
We should do our patriotic duty by trying to draw away even more Chinese women the West.
How is encouraging their spies to prey on more stupid Western men patriotic?
I'm the only one who voted for option #2, but I gotta say I find option #1 intriguing.
Quote from: Queequeg on November 16, 2013, 02:02:06 PM
I don't know if I am going to vote, but interested in other people's opinions.
I'm still waiting for Malthus prophecy of China's decline to happen.
He said it was about to happen like 10 years ago back in Paradox OT.
I, of course, voted for the yellow peril menace. China will continue to grow and eventually become the world sole superpower as we go into decline.