Just thought I'd get this thread ready for the near inevitable congressional/executive budget crisis in the new year.
Anyone care to make any bets as to the process/drama/outcome ?
What odds are you offering?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2013, 05:32:33 PM
What odds are you offering?
Sorry, as you may have gathered I've not expertise in this field, so just an observer.
I'd have thought you'd get good odds better for a default.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2013, 05:32:33 PM
What odds are you offering?
What is the statement being bet on? :contract:
wouldn't it be better to offer odds on the US Government's credit rating?
Quote from: Viking on October 16, 2013, 06:02:57 PM
wouldn't it be better to offer odds on the US Government's credit rating?
I don't think so. The concept of giving an entity such as US government a credit rating is just dumb. It has to have some rating, but the informational value of what that rating is is nil.
Quote from: DGuller on October 16, 2013, 06:02:40 PM
What is the statement being bet on? :contract:
Why are you asking me. It's monger's thread.
Why not wait to see if congress votes this current deal tonight? Are you trying to catch up to Tim in threads started?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2013, 06:13:35 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 16, 2013, 06:02:40 PM
What is the statement being bet on? :contract:
Why are you asking me. It's monger's thread.
:hmm: I didn't read what mongers wrote. :Embarrass:
Quote from: DGuller on October 16, 2013, 06:10:59 PM
Quote from: Viking on October 16, 2013, 06:02:57 PM
wouldn't it be better to offer odds on the US Government's credit rating?
I don't think so. The concept of giving an entity such as US government a credit rating is just dumb. It has to have some rating, but the informational value of what that rating is is nil.
How about a TED value?
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$TED
I think the number that nose dives during the shut down is an expression of the extra risk perceived from having anything other than treasury bills.
What do you think are the chances Republicans try and impeach Obama before 2016? If they win the Senate then right now I'd guess it's very high.
Quote from: Viking on October 16, 2013, 06:19:40 PM
I think the number that nose dives during the shut down is an expression of the extra risk perceived from having anything other than treasury bills.
I heard anecdotally that there's now a market for American political risk insurance. Previously only really useful in the developing world :lol:
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 16, 2013, 06:21:19 PM
Quote from: Viking on October 16, 2013, 06:19:40 PM
I think the number that nose dives during the shut down is an expression of the extra risk perceived from having anything other than treasury bills.
I heard anecdotally that there's now a market for American political risk insurance. Previously only really useful in the developing world :lol:
USA! USA! USA!
This is an...odd....thread.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2013, 05:32:33 PM
What odds are you offering?
20.00 this wont be on the scale of this last one.
Quote from: 11B4V on October 17, 2013, 07:54:00 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2013, 05:32:33 PM
What odds are you offering?
20.00 this wont be on the scale of this last one.
I assume you mean won't be suck a drama, not to the line, less impact and so forth.
But you could also win the bet on the other end of the scale, if congress sabotages the whole budget, everything, the markets utterly crash and a near new dark age is ushered in.
In which case you and everyone else could do with a twenty, though given the probable collapse of banking, I don't know how Yi would get it to you. :P
Quote from: mongers on October 17, 2013, 09:26:47 PM
Quote from: 11B4V on October 17, 2013, 07:54:00 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2013, 05:32:33 PM
What odds are you offering?
20.00 this wont be on the scale of this last one.
I assume you mean won't be suck a drama, not to the line, less impact and so forth.
But you could also win the bet on the other end of the scale, if congress sabotages the whole budget, everything, the markets utterly crash and a near new dark age is ushered in.
In which case you and everyone else could do with a twenty, though given the probable collapse of banking, I don't know how Yi would get it to you. :P
Then the new currency will be ammo. :D