So yeah... apparently the "lost decade" was never really lost: http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2013/08/11/now-for-the-truth-the-story-of-japans-lost-decades-is-the-worlds-most-absurd-media-myth/
A quote from the article:
QuoteUnder the headline "Japanese Optical Illusion: The 'Lost Decades' Theory Is A Myth," Cline records that whereas the U.S. labor force increased by 23 percent between 1991 and 2012, Japan's labor force increased by a mere 0.6 percent. Thus, adjusted to a per-worker basis, Japan's output rose respectably. Indeed Japan's growth was considerably faster than that of Germany, which is the current poster child of economic success.
3650 days of tentacle porn? How can that possibly be a loss?
Will read it now but from the summary I would reply - Except a key reason for the low birth rate was decreased salaries, financial instability, etc....
Reading it-hmm, some good points but some iffy ones.
It is certainly true that Japan has an image it likes to put across and does very good at this. That it could put across a negative economic image....yes. that I would believe.
The debt point is also good and more people should realise that.
But it all reeks too much of economics. On the ground in Japan, with real people, the effects can still be somewhat seen. Japan for the last 2 decades has somewhat been where the UK is now- little room for young people to get a start on life. Infrastructure behind the main points has been decaying quite horribly.... there's a cool blog called spike Japan which takes a pretty great look at the ground level side of Japan's decline.
The author misses several key points. Japanese are phenomenal savers, and put their money in negative real interest rate postal savings accounts that get recycled into public debt *not* because they have made a sober, rational assessment of the risks of sovereign default but because they are not very bright.
The lost decade is not about worker productivity, it's about the end of lifetime employment and rising wages. Japanese industrial workers have always been among the most productive workers in the world, but white collar workers have been among the least. Not hard to boost overall productivity when you have so much slack in the system.
I've read a couple articles about the plight of Japanese tweeters. It used to mean slacker, but now it's used to refer to the huge numbers of 20-40 year olds that never managed to land a coveted lifetime employment gig and suffer through life working poorly paid contract jobs, barely able to afford a Big Mac at the end of the week.
Should be freeters, not tweeters.
I knew that didn't sound right.
Quote from: Jacob on August 12, 2013, 11:25:26 AM
So yeah... apparently the "lost decade" was never really lost: http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2013/08/11/now-for-the-truth-the-story-of-japans-lost-decades-is-the-worlds-most-absurd-media-myth/
A quote from the article:
QuoteUnder the headline "Japanese Optical Illusion: The 'Lost Decades' Theory Is A Myth," Cline records that whereas the U.S. labor force increased by 23 percent between 1991 and 2012, Japan's labor force increased by a mere 0.6 percent. Thus, adjusted to a per-worker basis, Japan's output rose respectably. Indeed Japan's growth was considerably faster than that of Germany, which is the current poster child of economic success.
1991-2012 is not a decade.
The lost decade was 1991-2000. The Japanese economy did improve relatively after that point.
In the 1991-2000, growth in output per worker in Japan was considerably weaker than in the US.
I don't think any economist or indeed any sensible person would point out Germany as a good story for strong post 1989 growth either.
Thanks. It's (almost) always good to get the languish counter points :bowler:
As mentioned before, Germany was the sick man of Europe up to about 2005. The brief phase of economic success afterwards only lasted until about 2012, with the terrible year 2009 in between. Right now, Germany is no longer a poster child but doing so-so, which is admittedly better than most of the rest of Europe.
Quote from: Viking on August 12, 2013, 11:30:31 AM
3650 days of tentacle porn? How can that possibly be a loss?
Forgetting the leap days? How unscientific.
Quote from: Zanza on August 12, 2013, 02:18:40 PM
As mentioned before, Germany was the sick man of Europe up to about 2005. The brief phase of economic success afterwards only lasted until about 2012, with the terrible year 2009 in between. Right now, Germany is no longer a poster child but doing so-so, which is admittedly better than most of the rest of Europe.
There has been a strong vein of Germany worship in recent left-wing commentary here in the UK. It is bloody irritating because if a British Government implemented the same sort of policies to improve our economy the squeals would be deafening.
Which is not to defend our current government of course, I have no idea who I can vote for in 2015 :(
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 13, 2013, 06:41:52 AM
Quote from: Zanza on August 12, 2013, 02:18:40 PM
As mentioned before, Germany was the sick man of Europe up to about 2005. The brief phase of economic success afterwards only lasted until about 2012, with the terrible year 2009 in between. Right now, Germany is no longer a poster child but doing so-so, which is admittedly better than most of the rest of Europe.
There has been a strong vein of Germany worship in recent left-wing commentary here in the UK. It is bloody irritating because if a British Government implemented the same sort of policies to improve our economy the squeals would be deafening.
Which is not to defend our current government of course, I have no idea who I can vote for in 2015 :(
Vote UKIP. The comedy factor alone would be worth it.
Quote from: Tyr on August 12, 2013, 11:45:40 AMthere's a cool blog called spike Japan which takes a pretty great look at the ground level side of Japan's decline.
Fascinating site.
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fspikejapan.files.wordpress.com%2F2012%2F11%2Ftilted.jpg%3Fw%3D500%26amp%3Bh%3D375&hash=d4907e6776594b7184c8c0cdf26d8c8d2304a52c)
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fspikejapan.files.wordpress.com%2F2012%2F11%2Fpair-of-golden-oldies.jpg%3Fw%3D500%26amp%3Bh%3D375&hash=d31d639f586134d1688aab7fdc17057a44f829a3)
Quote
It's the contrast between public-sector affluence and private-sector squalor, precisely the opposite of what prevails in the West, that's so mesmerizing.
1992 GDP: 483 trillion
2012 GDP: 476 trillion
GDP figures are nominal.
1992 pop: 124 million
2012 pop: 127 million
This looks pretty damn lost to me. Japan has more people than they did 20 years ago, but less GDP. Any economic improvement they may have enjoyed in the past 20 years has been in the form of price decreases.
Yeah, there's a lot more run down older buildings in Japan. Everything in Korea looks shinny and new in comparison.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 19, 2013, 03:52:55 PM
1992 GDP: 483 trillion
2012 GDP: 476 trillion
GDP figures are nominal.
1992 pop: 124 million
2012 pop: 127 million
This looks pretty damn lost to me. Japan has more people than they did 20 years ago, but less GDP. Any economic improvement they may have enjoyed in the past 20 years has been in the form of price decreases.
Are things ever going to be good enough for the population to just kick back and relax, and not procreate too much? :hmm:
I see all too often people citing growth, but not often are people citing how much we already grew to. Obviously there is a difference between steady state economies and growth economies, and a growth economy that stops growing is going to cause painful dislocations, but I am wondering were we're going with all that economic growth. What's the end game, a new iPad every week?
Quote from: DGuller on August 19, 2013, 05:10:09 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 19, 2013, 03:52:55 PM
1992 GDP: 483 trillion
2012 GDP: 476 trillion
GDP figures are nominal.
1992 pop: 124 million
2012 pop: 127 million
This looks pretty damn lost to me. Japan has more people than they did 20 years ago, but less GDP. Any economic improvement they may have enjoyed in the past 20 years has been in the form of price decreases.
Are things ever going to be good enough for the population to just kick back and relax, and not procreate too much? :hmm:
I see all too often people citing growth, but not often are people citing how much we already grew to. Obviously there is a difference between steady state economies and growth economies, and a growth economy that stops growing is going to cause painful dislocations, but I am wondering were we're going with all that economic growth. What's the end game, a new iPad every week?
When was the first time you were approached by the Communists? Was it someone you knew? Maybe even trusted? Could you then imagine the baby steps that would lead you to being a card-carrying member of the Party? All the little lies you would tell yourself to balm your conscience and to make what you did seem fair, maybe even noble? Probably not.
Quote from: The Brain on August 19, 2013, 05:15:11 PM
When was the first time you were approached by the Communists? Was it someone you knew? Maybe even trusted? Could you then imagine the baby steps that would lead you to being a card-carrying member of the Party? All the little lies you would tell yourself to balm your conscience and to make what you did seem fair, maybe even noble? Probably not.
He was planted as a not so secret mole. So obvious that he was sure to be overlooked.
:mad: I was actually supposed to be a secret mole. :(
Have you been a bad mole? Do you need to be punished?
Quote from: The Brain on August 20, 2013, 10:20:35 AM
Have you been a bad mole? Do you need to be punished?
You get the board, I'll get the water.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 19, 2013, 05:04:17 PM
Yeah, there's a lot more run down older buildings in Japan. Everything in Korea looks shinny and new in comparison.
:hmm:
I'm not so sure about that. I saw a lot of pretty ghetto run down areas in Korea. It seems to have the same buildings designed to last 5 minutes and who cares how they look philosophy and it did have economic troubles of its own back in the late 90s iirc.
There was this one really cool area in Seoul, it was a street full of electronics components shops which was beneath what looked like a disused highway, which was in turn lined with closed down shops. It was fascinating, would be a great place to shoot a post-apocolptic themed music video.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 19, 2013, 03:52:55 PM
1992 GDP: 483 trillion
2012 GDP: 476 trillion
GDP figures are nominal.
1992 pop: 124 million
2012 pop: 127 million
This looks pretty damn lost to me. Japan has more people than they did 20 years ago, but less GDP. Any economic improvement they may have enjoyed in the past 20 years has been in the form of price decreases.
Yeah, but when you have over a billion dollars per capita GDP, I think you can afford to lose a few million here and there. :P
Quote from: Ideologue on August 20, 2013, 11:21:35 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 19, 2013, 03:52:55 PM
1992 GDP: 483 trillion
2012 GDP: 476 trillion
GDP figures are nominal.
1992 pop: 124 million
2012 pop: 127 million
This looks pretty damn lost to me. Japan has more people than they did 20 years ago, but less GDP. Any economic improvement they may have enjoyed in the past 20 years has been in the form of price decreases.
Yeah, but when you have over a billion dollars per capita GDP, I think you can afford to lose a few million here and there. :P
That's actually only about 3 million per capita. Still, I suspect he mistyped somewhere. Or perhaps the figures are in yen.
I meant million.
Well, I mean, I meant to my math right. :weep:
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 20, 2013, 11:24:43 AM
. Or perhaps the figures are in yen.
Yes the numbers are in yen. That way there is a like to like comparison that doesn't get distorted by $/yen currency movements.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 19, 2013, 03:52:55 PM
1992 GDP: 483 trillion
2012 GDP: 476 trillion
GDP figures are nominal.
1992 pop: 124 million
2012 pop: 127 million
This looks pretty damn lost to me. Japan has more people than they did 20 years ago, but less GDP. Any economic improvement they may have enjoyed in the past 20 years has been in the form of price decreases.
date=1376945575]
1992 GDP: 3.87 trillion
2012 GDP: 5.54 trillion
GDP figures are nominal.
1992 pop: 124 million
2012 pop: 127 million
Converted to USD. There are different sides to the story.
Quote from: alfred russel on August 20, 2013, 03:06:00 PM
date=1376945575]
1992 GDP: 3.87 trillion
2012 GDP: 5.54 trillion
GDP figures are nominal.
1992 pop: 124 million
2012 pop: 127 million
Converted to USD. There are different sides to the story.
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.seekingalpha.com%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F3%2F21%2Fsaupload_usd_jpy_daily_thumb_5b2_5d.png&hash=03ee0a546523bd1e4afe48164a134528533c0cd0)
1992 USD:JPY - 130
2012 USD:JPY - 80
Stuff on the world market is paid in USD, so they can now import much more stuff for the same amount of Yen. As there was a deflation in Japan for most of the last two decades they probably have a higher domestic purchasing power now than they had in 1992 too. So as Minsky said, their "growth" could be through price decreases. Are you getting richer when your income stagnates but everything you buy gets cheaper all the time? I guess so...
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forexlive.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F04%2FUSDJPY-monthly-since-1970.png&hash=d1b51835c4872ba56e182120a0075c6f313dcd41)
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2F4%2F46%2FReal_GDP_growth_rate_in_Japan_%25281956-2008%2529.png&hash=e6687212c6a35c424600949f8259a24de216a5d5)
What are those two charts supposed to tell us?
Quote from: Zanza on August 20, 2013, 03:33:17 PM
As there was a deflation in Japan for most of the last two decades they probably have a higher domestic purchasing power now than they had in 1992 too. So as Minsky said, their "growth" could be through price decreases. Are you getting richer when your income stagnates but everything you buy gets cheaper all the time? I guess so...
Yes.
The problem with growth through deflation is that it doesn't work very well for credit-based economies, because deflation keeps expanding the value of the existing private debt stock.
Price decreases do increase consumer purchasing power and the stock of wealth. But debtors are crushed. And who were the debtors? Japanese companies that financed themselves primary through bank debt.
Result: zombie companies left on life support by zombie banks. That's the lost decade in a nutshell.
Why not just bailout private debtors with printed money? Oh, right. The hyperinflation that never comes.
:huh: Plenty of countries have experienced hyperinflation Ide.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 20, 2013, 08:33:50 PM
:huh: Plenty of countries have experienced hyperinflation Ide.
It's fairly rare.
It's fairly rare because most central bankers are not total pinheads.
In historical terms it's not only common, it's endemic. Of course there haven't been the kinds of central banks we have now over the course of history.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 20, 2013, 08:33:50 PM
:huh: Plenty of countries have experienced hyperinflation Ide.
I'm not saying do it forever.
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 20, 2013, 09:27:18 PM
In historical terms it's not only common, it's endemic. Of course there haven't been the kinds of central banks we have now over the course of history.
What is common? Hyper inflation or central banks not run by pinheads.
Quote from: Zanza on August 20, 2013, 03:33:17 PM
Stuff on the world market is paid in USD, so they can now import much more stuff for the same amount of Yen. As there was a deflation in Japan for most of the last two decades they probably have a higher domestic purchasing power now than they had in 1992 too. So as Minsky said, their "growth" could be through price decreases. Are you getting richer when your income stagnates but everything you buy gets cheaper all the time? I guess so...
They're an export driven economy.
Quote from: Tyr on August 20, 2013, 10:44:13 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 19, 2013, 05:04:17 PM
Yeah, there's a lot more run down older buildings in Japan. Everything in Korea looks shinny and new in comparison.
:hmm:
I'm not so sure about that. I saw a lot of pretty ghetto run down areas in Korea. It seems to have the same buildings designed to last 5 minutes and who cares how they look philosophy and it did have economic troubles of its own back in the late 90s iirc.
There was this one really cool area in Seoul, it was a street full of electronics components shops which was beneath what looked like a disused highway, which was in turn lined with closed down shops. It was fascinating, would be a great place to shoot a post-apocolptic themed music video.
In a city as big as Seoul there are going to be ghettos, but most buildings look new. In Japan, where ever I went, most buildings off the main streets looked at least 30 years old.
Quote from: Ideologue on August 20, 2013, 08:12:15 PM
Why not just bailout private debtors with printed money?
Three letters: B-O-J
Yeah. :(
I understood they were starting to do a lot more though lately?
They are doing easing like the Fed is. More than the Fed is, if you change to Japan's scale. They aren't bailing out anyone though as far as I know.
Quote from: Ideologue on August 21, 2013, 03:58:18 PM
Yeah. :(
I understood they were starting to do a lot more though lately?
It only took 20 years.
They've done like 26 stimulus packages and ten rounds of QE in those years. You think it was just not enough? Maybe they actually needed the current global environment of easing in order to do the massive kind they actually needed without the yen getting too hot?
The BOJ never used QE during the entire lost decade. In fact, it was the decision of BOJ to attempt QE that effectively brought the lost decade to a close. The problem was that the program was not sustained to the point where deflation was eliminated, and by 06-07, BOJ was preversely reducing the monetary base.
As for fiscal policy, the number of separate packages illustrates the problem. If you look year-to-year Japan was alternating periods of fiscal stimulus with occasional fiscal contractions, sometimes quite sharp. In addition, the effectiveness of fiscal policy was vitiating by the zombie financing in the corporate sector. Had Japan did what the US did after the S&L crisis, and resolved insolvent banks and firms, then fiscal policy might have played a role in jump-starting a recovery.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 13, 2013, 06:41:52 AM
There has been a strong vein of Germany worship in recent left-wing commentary here in the UK. It is bloody irritating because if a British Government implemented the same sort of policies to improve our economy the squeals would be deafening.
Not just on the left. The government's obsessed with 'rebalancing' our economy towards exports - or, more accurately, they talk about it a lot. It's one of those areas were Ed Miliband made a semi-interesting point, then dropped it.
Personally I think it's a fad. It's worth remembering that not only was Germany the sick man of Europe but that the proposed solution was to become more Anglo-Saxon. More flexibility of hiring and firing, more focus on the service sector, lots of deregulation - which wasn't actually the German path. Sadly that was the model Ireland and Cyprus followed, within the Euro.
So currently everyone's saying we need to become more German. We need to develop an industrial policy, start training our workforce and so on. I doubt we will, much like the Germans didn't adopt the Economist's routine list of Anglo-Saxon prescriptions. And when the German economy next hits a tough patch we'll start lecturing them again.
QuoteWhich is not to defend our current government of course, I have no idea who I can vote for in 2015 :(
You've got an interesting sounding MP:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Hendrick
I have Harriet Harman....:mellow:
But through it all Germany is the better place for an average citizen so....
Quote from: Tyr on August 25, 2013, 12:20:58 PM
But through it all Germany is the better place for an average citizen so....
Depends on your timescale, if we take a lifespan of 80 years as our measure then Germany utterly sucks compared to the UK.
Quote from: Tyr on August 25, 2013, 12:20:58 PM
But through it all Germany is the better place for an average citizen so....
Maybe, maybe not. After all, despite your whining and sniveling about how the government didn't transfer money out of London into Coalistan, but eastern Germany has been a shithole for the last 70 years.
Quote from: Neil on August 25, 2013, 01:38:21 PM
Maybe, maybe not. After all, despite your whining and sniveling about how the government didn't transfer money out of London into Coalistan, but eastern Germany has been a shithole for the last 70 years.
Maybe, but it is richer than regions of Northern England, which may be what Tyr compares it to.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 25, 2013, 01:23:31 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 25, 2013, 12:20:58 PM
But through it all Germany is the better place for an average citizen so....
Depends on your timescale, if we take a lifespan of 80 years as our measure then Germany utterly sucks compared to the UK.
We won three world cups though.
I was going to make a smart alecky response, but it turns out England has only 2 between rugby, cricket and soccer. Why don't they invent games that they'd be good at? :hmm:
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 25, 2013, 02:49:12 PM
I was going to make a smart alecky response, but it turns out England has only 2 between rugby, cricket and soccer. Why don't they invent games that they'd be good at? :hmm:
From what I've seen they throw some fierce darts.
Quoteaybe, maybe not. After all, despite your whining and sniveling about how the government didn't transfer money out of London into Coalistan, but eastern Germany has been a shithole for the last 70 years.
The western 2/3 is richer than the eastern 1/3 is a lot more equal than the south eastern 1/20 getting much more than the rest.
Plus even east Germans get decent education rights.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 25, 2013, 01:23:31 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 25, 2013, 12:20:58 PM
But through it all Germany is the better place for an average citizen so....
Depends on your timescale, if we take a lifespan of 80 years as our measure then Germany utterly sucks compared to the UK.
:lol:
True.
I'm thinking of life in the modern day, if picking where to be born in the 1930s, or practically any time up till the 80s really due to the risk of being born in the east, then hell yes I'm going to go with Britain
Quote from: Zanza on August 25, 2013, 02:44:13 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 25, 2013, 01:23:31 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 25, 2013, 12:20:58 PM
But through it all Germany is the better place for an average citizen so....
Depends on your timescale, if we take a lifespan of 80 years as our measure then Germany utterly sucks compared to the UK.
We won three world cups though.
:D
That supports my point though, if emulating Germany is such a simple matter we can start by having a decent national football team and win a few world cups. Then we can set about transforming Sunderland into Neue Stuttgart :cool:
Germany still has coal-mining (lignite):
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FM7UAzUh.jpg&hash=5c1ab66cdef4b3f70d61affa895347812d5d7fb9)
I think we even have two or three coal mines active, but those will shut down by 2018.
If only there was a better and safer way to generate power. :(
Quote from: The Brain on August 26, 2013, 11:11:16 AM
If only there was a better and safer way to generate power. :(
Gas, hydro, wind, solar - all better and safer. :P
Not better in terms of output.
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 26, 2013, 11:23:34 AM
Not better in terms of output.
Hydro is. Need some electricity? Just release some more water...