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#31

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Sheilbh - January 13, 2026, 06:51:12 PM

Also, the EU has some mutual defense articles as well - this leaves out the UK, but I don't expect the UK will let that stop them necessarily.

The EU doesn't have any mutual defence articles - as I say it's aid and assistance (similar to other provisions relating to terrorism or natural disaster).

In particular anything mutual defence is a red line for Ireland because of the constitutional commitment to neutrality (which I think some scholars argue doesn't really exist, but is a political article of faith). The first draft was a bit stronger. After Ireland rejected Lisbon one of the changes was to specifically call out that "certain Member States" have a specific character to their security policy.

But I think at that point they were also backed by Austria. It's still quite strongly felt in Ireland - not sure on Austria. Everyone (except the President) in Ireland is very supportive of Ukraine and would be very supportive of the Baltics but not in the context of an alliance or anything that compromises neutrality.

Edit: Actually sorry that's unfair because the Irish government makes the point that they're not neutral. They are very much on the side of Ukraine but are militarily neutral. So they'd absolutely provide aid and assistance but reject any treaty language about mutual defence - it comes up in basically every EU referendom (again mandatory because of the constitution).

#32

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by Jacob - January 13, 2026, 06:47:48 PM

Lol - my wife used the inhouse AI assistant at her work and asked it to polish an email it had drafted. It translated it to Polish 

#33

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Sheilbh - January 13, 2026, 06:46:28 PM

Last I checked, the Baltic states are part of the EU.

Article 42(7) TEU: If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.

This is stronger than NATO's article V ("such action as [the member state] deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area").

Obligation > "deems necessary"

You've quoted the first sentence. The rest:

This shall not prejudice the specific character of the security and defence policy of certain Member States.

Commitments and cooperation in this area shall be consistent with commitments under the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, which, for those States which are members of it, remains the foundation of their collective defence and the forum for its implementation.

And the EU's own gloss on it - correctly - is that it's a mutual assistance clause. The requirement is "aid and assistance" not defence. "All other Member States have to provide assistance in response [...] this assistance can, for example, range from diplomatic support and technical or medical assistance to civilian or military aid." The nature of the assistance is case-by-case to reflect the cause and the member states responding.

#34

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Jacob - January 13, 2026, 06:44:42 PM

Congressman Randy Fine has introduced a bill regrading Greenland.

Randy is not, in my view, fine.

A Greenlandic family could easily make it through winter with just half a Randy Fine.

I think they'd prefer less contaminated food to be honest.

#35

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Jacob - January 13, 2026, 06:43:13 PM

I can definitely see the argument that when allies have to send forces to act as a tripwire against you, then they're no longer your allies.  I do wonder though why NATO can't remain a thing without the US?  Obviously it wouldn't be nearly as effective of an alliance, but whole of Europe answering Article 5 should still be quite a deterrent, I would think.

There are some obvious practical things to be figured out in terms of both logistics and command & control, given how central the US has been to NATO - but yeah, I don't think all the European countries are going to renege on their mutual NATO commitments just because Trump decides to walk away.

Also, the EU has some mutual defense articles as well - this leaves out the UK, but I don't expect the UK will let that stop them necessarily.

#36

Off the Record / Re: Go Persians, go!

Last post by Sheilbh - January 13, 2026, 06:41:09 PM

You are wrong about your last paragraph. It was not at all like Afghanistan. It had a large middle class and was thoroughly modern on the cities.  And the countryside was not fuedal. Rather villages operated more like communes.

I think you misread my point on Afghanistan.

On feudalism - it literally was feudal until the 1960s/70s (and in my head there's nothing about a communal village life that contradicts feudalism - seems to me they often go together). I think the Shah's attempt at land reform was one of his big pitches as a reforming "progressive" monarch. But my understanding - and I could be wrong - is that even after land reform the traditional landowners still earned huge wealth from and were very powerful in their old estates. From what I understand a bit like the situation in Pakistan (strikingly, another US ally against communism but not frontline states like Taiwan and South Korea?).

Again from what I understand, I think a lot of the change from land reform has now accrued to the state, elites around politics and groups like the IRGC.

#37

Off the Record / Re: Go Persians, go!

Last post by Tonitrus - January 13, 2026, 06:38:39 PM

I didn't catch the name, but the profile fits.

To be fair, the BBC interviewer challenged him pretty well I think.

#38

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Zoupa - January 13, 2026, 06:37:58 PM

Last I checked, the Baltic states are part of the EU.

Article 42(7) TEU: If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.

This is stronger than NATO's article V ("such action as [the member state] deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area").

Obligation > "deems necessary"

#39

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Jacob - January 13, 2026, 06:37:43 PM

It'd be interesting to see some updated polling since Ukraine and other recent shocks.

Yeah, I don't think polling from 2019-2020 is much more relevant than polling from 1974-1975

#40

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Jacob - January 13, 2026, 06:36:09 PM

I'd hope you're right, but absent NATO what's the difference between the baltics states and Ukraine? This is nowhere my area of expertise so there are probably key differences I just don't personally know what they are

I'm not sure what you mean by "absent NATO". I think what's under consideration is Baltics + local allies, where I think they have a pretty good chance. The Baltics on their own will likely be hooped if facing off against Russia by themselves.

But I expect enough European allies will take their NATO and EU defense commitments serious enough that that's not going to be the case, even if the US bails.