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#41

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by OttoVonBismarck - Today at 12:43:15 PM

Perhaps--but when Iran is blowing up stuff like desalination facilities there's going to be some upper limit of what they can tolerate before questions get pretty loud as to why they aren't doing anything about it. Questions from their own people.

#42

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Maladict - Today at 12:32:03 PM

Also the Gulf States perhaps waiting for Trump to decide the war isn't a good idea, and take the pressure off of them--probably are misreading the level of stupidity inside Trump's mind.

Even without Trump, they know the US eventually will get bored and leave. Yet they will still have to coexist with their neighbor.

#43

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by grumbler - Today at 12:06:11 PM

Just a complete layman here, but I wonder if the countering the drone swarm is a matter of going back to WW2-era AA systems, with updated computers.  In modern warfare AA has evolved to shoot down fast high-flying missiles, but it seems like with drones we're back to saturating by quantity strategy.  I wonder if with modern technology you can even get high hit rates with non-exploding AA ammo, just by calculating where to aim.

Gun-based interception is possible and very successful when the AA operator knows that the drone is going to enter the gun's range (e.g. protecting a point target like a single building or single radar antenna). The number of gun systems needed to defend something larger, like an airfield, gets quickly out of hand, and missile-based systems become the only option.

Plus, of course, the issue of gun system saturation by large-scale drone attacks where "they can get some of us, but not all of us."

#44

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 12:03:17 PM

There's a sort of end of history decadence to it all - we don't need to worry about where things come from or are made or anything so grubby as the material world, the market will provide.

I don't think we (the collective West) are going to move substantially towards fixing the problem until we get our own nose/face smashed in a bit.  Then we can only hope we'll have the chance to turn things around.   

#45

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 11:59:59 AM

I guess it is not hard for a simple brain to move from "take the oil" to "take the uranium".

#46

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 10:22:14 AM

On the one hand - If Trump's people wanted to preserve the option of sending in teams to secure and transport highly enriched uranium from three different sites located in the heart of the country - maybe they shouldn't have first bombed the exterior of the sites to generate massive amounts of rubble?

On the other hand - it's a bit of a ray of light that perhaps one Trumpian act of stupidity may forestall an even bigger one.  Perhaps God really does protect the terminally stupid, by having one idiotic act cancel out another?  Is it too much to hope?

#47

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by OttoVonBismarck - Today at 10:10:42 AM

This quote from the daily ISW update is interesting for a few reasons:

The combined force is reportedly considering deploying special forces at a later time in the war to move Iran's highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile out of the country. Four sources with knowledge of the matter told Axios on March 8 that the US administration has discussed a potential future operation to move Iran's HEU out of Iran or dilute it in Iran.[53] The sources added that the combined force would only conduct such an operation if Iran could no longer seriously threaten US or Israeli troops.[54] US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during a congressional briefing on March 3 that "people are going to have to go and get it" in response to a question about whether Iran's HEU would be secured.[55] Iran's HEU is buried underneath rubble at the Esfahan, Fordow, and Natanz nuclear sites, which the United States and Israel struck during the 12-day war.[56] US and Israeli officials told Axios that most of Iran's HEU stockpile is located in the underground tunnels of the nuclear facility in Esfahan, while the rest is split between Fordow and Natanz.[57] An Israeli analyst, citing March 2 satellite imagery, reported that the combined force struck Natanz and severely damaged at least three buildings.[58]

For one, my response would be: good fucking luck with that. Special forces raids in Iran? Sure, that's possible. But moving  a stockpile of uranium? That would take a pretty big logistical presence.

The end of that note reveals IMO a core weakness in Trump's mindset--this is an option "he would only consider if there's no risk to U.S. troops."

Now, I'm of a mind this entire war is foolish and misguided, but the reality is whatever the wisdom of a war, one can assess if there's the right mindset to win. I can assure you Iran isn't making decisions out of fear of troop losses, the fact Trump truly believes he can impose his will on Iran without any significant risk to U.S. troops is both arrogant and also reveals Trump doesn't nearly have the will that IMO would be required for a victory of any sort in a strategic sense. (I'm not opposed to the idea Trump's current strategy could result in a "mutual loss" in which everyone loses, but that isn't the kind of thing Trump has been trying to sell people on.)

#48

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 09:23:31 AM

Although I think it's also wider than America - or American politics is the local expression of a global phenomenon. It wasn't just government contracts but a general cultural and economic shift to "leaner" industry, combating inefficiencies (including stock, process and labour costs), increasing competitiveness in a global marketplace (and leaning on that global marketplace to deliver efficiency) etc. (And obviously in the context of the 70s with Vietnam, the oil shock, stagflation - the criticism/crises that drove that swing were real.)

Having said that I think France is an interesting counter-example on your last point because I think the very things that are now helping France were, for the last 40 years, great examples in the Anglo-media (but I also think elsewhere) of a form of soft corruption. The French state stepping in to protect uncompetitive national champions, the closeness/incestuousness of French political and business elites (also cited as an important part of France's response to covid).

#49

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by OttoVonBismarck - Today at 09:18:47 AM

Also the Gulf States perhaps waiting for Trump to decide the war isn't a good idea, and take the pressure off of them--probably are misreading the level of stupidity inside Trump's mind.

#50

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by OttoVonBismarck - Today at 09:15:06 AM

My suspicion is more talk will shift to the drones (than is already there) in the coming days--ISW reports Iran has lost about 75% of its missile launchers. Most likely in the coming days Iran will be close to having none left--I imagine they will keep some hidden to avoid losing any / all launch capacity, but will probably not use them for daily launches (which exposes them obviously), but rather save them for a more strategic or performative use a little down the road.

I think the story more and more will be the drone warfare's effects on the Gulf nations, which continue to get hit.

I also wonder how long the Gulf nations can maintain their own legitimacy by refusing to fight back. It's one thing to ignore attempts on U.S. bases, but we're seeing oil production and refining assets, civilian residential assets etc being hit, I don't know that the Gulf states can just indefinitely act like this isn't their war.

I'm not sure the significance of any of them fighting back--none are as capable as the U.S. or Israel, KSA and UAE have decently sized air forces for the region though.