Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

Remember the US embassy in Moscow's warning recently?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/mar/22/moscow-concert-attack-crocus-city-hall-shooting-russia-live-updates

The embassy also said that it is "monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts".

Actions that US citizens have been encouraged to take include avoiding large crowds, monitoring local media for updates and being aware of surroundings.

Well there was evidence somebody was about to do something I guess. But what kind of extremists are we talking about?

I'm sure it will be quickly "discovered" that these were Ukrainians and a full mobilization is now justified.

Early signs are some in Russia are very quick to point the finger at Ukrainians and build up a story about it.
It does seem just too perfect for this.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Well there was evidence somebody was about to do something I guess. But what kind of extremists are we talking about?

Probably the FSB itself

[The Minsky Moment]

russia exports lots of crude but doesn't refine much. Obviously the war requires lots of refined oil. Any strike on their refineries is a plus to the war effort.

That assumes that Russia lacks sufficient stockpiles or the ability to obtain refined oil from elsewhere.  Is there are any support for those propositions? 

[Zoupa]

russia exports lots of crude but doesn't refine much. Obviously the war requires lots of refined oil. Any strike on their refineries is a plus to the war effort.

That assumes that Russia lacks sufficient stockpiles or the ability to obtain refined oil from elsewhere.  Is there are any support for those propositions? 

I mean... I can point at the general state of russian military logistics at any time during the last two centuries if you'd like.

[DGuller]

People living in apartment buildings in Russia might want to consider alternate arrangements for a while, or at least be on the lookout for FSB performing training missions.  When Russians do false flag attacks, they don't just stop at one, they make sure.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

russia exports lots of crude but doesn't refine much. Obviously the war requires lots of refined oil. Any strike on their refineries is a plus to the war effort.

That assumes that Russia lacks sufficient stockpiles or the ability to obtain refined oil from elsewhere.  Is there are any support for those propositions? 

didn't they forbid exports of refined oil for a bit a while back?

[Maladict]

IS has claimed the attack.

[grumbler]

Yeah - I fear that's possibly a very generous read (though probably the one Biden's team would make).

It feels a little bit like saying, per a Kyiv analyst I saw, fight an existential war in a way that suits our domestic political needs in an election cycle while we are also not providing you with the means to fight that war in any other way. Which is not great.

I disagree with the implicit assumption that US administration's domestic political needs are not vital to Ukraine's success.  I also disagree with the implicit assumption that the US is not providing aid to Ukraine to fight the war.

[grumbler]

russia exports lots of crude but doesn't refine much. Obviously the war requires lots of refined oil. Any strike on their refineries is a plus to the war effort.

Russia is a net exporter of refined oil products.  The Ukrainian attacks have hurt exports, and therefor dollars, but not the war effort (as yet).

[grumbler]

russia exports lots of crude but doesn't refine much. Obviously the war requires lots of refined oil. Any strike on their refineries is a plus to the war effort.

That assumes that Russia lacks sufficient stockpiles or the ability to obtain refined oil from elsewhere.  Is there are any support for those propositions? 

didn't they forbid exports of refined oil for a bit a while back?

Last summer they had a temporary major shortage of refined products (including auto fuel, leading to some blowback from the public), but that was due t transportation issue.  I seem to recall that Russia was an exporter of diesel and an importer of petroleum, due to the nature of the crude they produce.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

russia exports lots of crude but doesn't refine much. Obviously the war requires lots of refined oil. Any strike on their refineries is a plus to the war effort.

That assumes that Russia lacks sufficient stockpiles or the ability to obtain refined oil from elsewhere.  Is there are any support for those propositions? 

didn't they forbid exports of refined oil for a bit a while back?

Last summer they had a temporary major shortage of refined products (including auto fuel, leading to some blowback from the public), but that was due t transportation issue.  I seem to recall that Russia was an exporter of diesel and an importer of petroleum, due to the nature of the crude they produce.

thx.

[Valmy]

IS has claimed the attack.

IS? But why? Russian shenanigans in Africa?

[viper37]

IS has claimed the attack.

IS? But why? Russian shenanigans in Africa?

Syria, more likely.  Assad is growing in power there and it's not yet over between him and ISIS.

[Josquius]

[link=msg=1436663 date=1711150708]

IS has claimed the attack.

Odd to say but that's a relief. Wouldn't have put it past them to just let the shit fly and Ukraine get the blame - especially with the links to Palestine/Israel.

Though my money was maybe partially on a false flag.

IS I believe has some aligned groups in the Caucasus pushing for independence. One of those my enemy's enemy... Isn't really my friend and could long term mean worse sort of situations.

[Zoupa]

рязанский сахар