Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

I absolutely have no idea which side is shooting and which one is getting destroyed, but still cool and surreal to have an air-to-air kill recorded on some random civilian's phone:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1497173408135659524

Thats the trouble with all the footage really. No idea who is who.
Given they have all the same equipment, many speak the same language, and the Russians are purposefully disobeying the rules of law by actively disguising themselves as Ukrainians I can only imagine how it is on the ground.

Looking at the first comment there, its fake.

[Threviel]

Back in '39 Sweden sent exactly everything we could spare to Finland when the Soviets invaded. I've seen no such news today from Sweden

Well, fuck me sideways! https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1497186465494806529

Sweden provides military, technical and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Grateful to @SwedishPM for her effective support. Building an anti-Putin coalition together!

That is a big deal. Sweden has had a policy of no alliances in order to be able to be neutral in the event of war. In every war in the last 100 years Sweden has declared itself neutral, except the winter war where we declared ourselves a non combatant in order to aid Finland. Apparently this war is the second exception. Now, it might be hyperbole and the regular humanitarian aid that we usually do, but if Sweden really sends military aid it's a massive policy change.

[Syt]

Also read that Sweden/Finland will discuss closer association with NATO.

[Threviel]

Yes, the Swedish security policy was always based on having a huge-ass army and we don't have that anymore. If we are to play with the big boys we are going to have to join NATO.

This war is going to make me a Social Democrat it seems.

[mongers]

Also read that Sweden/Finland will discuss closer association with NATO.

Yeah, just love to see a brigade of US soldiers stationed near to the  Karelian Isthmus.

[Threviel]

Also read that Sweden/Finland will discuss closer association with NATO.

Yeah, just love to see a brigade of US soldiers stationed near to the  Karelian Isthmus.

I would love to see Swedish army there, it's been far too long since we faced them on the isthmus.

[Syt]

German Bundeswehr has atrophied a lot since the 90s. Not just in headcount, but also in ready equipment. In recent years it was brought up again and again that outside the Afghanistan contingent there's not much material in good maintenance/repair or available at all. Politicians now say that the defense budget needs to be increased - maybe this crisis finally provides the much needed jolt (if way too late), but I believe it when I see it. When I served in 95/96, all males of a birth year were still called up. But 15 years later the force and budget had shrunk so much that not everyone was called up anymore, leading to questions regarding the fairness - some people having to serve and losing a year in their career plans while others didn't. The response in 2011 was not to increase conscriptions but to suspend them.

[mongers]

I doubt Putin's Russia will get this, but to me this crisis and now invasion is making Ukraine more real, not less so, small things I know but:

Many people seemed to have stopped using "the Ukraine".

The Ukrainian spelling is being adopted by many foreigners and also increasingly the local pronunciation.

Along with this goes an increased interest in the country's actual history, spreading curiosity about the country, rather than reducing it to a potemkin-like suburb of a greater Moscow.

If the country gets through this disaster I hope there's a tourist boom as other Europeans and people from further afield visit.

[Solmyr]

Back in '39 Sweden sent exactly everything we could spare to Finland when the Soviets invaded. I've seen no such news today from Sweden

Well, fuck me sideways! https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1497186465494806529

Sweden provides military, technical and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Grateful to @SwedishPM for her effective support. Building an anti-Putin coalition together!

That is a big deal. Sweden has had a policy of no alliances in order to be able to be neutral in the event of war. In every war in the last 100 years Sweden has declared itself neutral, except the winter war where we declared ourselves a non combatant in order to aid Finland. Apparently this war is the second exception. Now, it might be hyperbole and the regular humanitarian aid that we usually do, but if Sweden really sends military aid it's a massive policy change.

Finland is also sending aid to Ukraine, though the sum is not clear as our President Niinistö said it's €15 million and Ukraine's Zelensky said it's $50 million. Might have been a miscommunication when they spoke English to each other.

[Solmyr]

Also read that Sweden/Finland will discuss closer association with NATO.

Yeah, just love to see a brigade of US soldiers stationed near to the  Karelian Isthmus.

I would love to see Swedish army there, it's been far too long since we faced them on the isthmus.

Just don't send it to Ukraine itself, Swedish army doesn't have a good track record there.

[Threviel]

Also read that Sweden/Finland will discuss closer association with NATO.

Yeah, just love to see a brigade of US soldiers stationed near to the  Karelian Isthmus.

I would love to see Swedish army there, it's been far too long since we faced them on the isthmus.

Just don't send it to Ukraine itself, Swedish army doesn't have a good track record there.

Didn't go so well the last times we went up against them on the isthmus either. 

[Duque de Bragança]

Also read that Sweden/Finland will discuss closer association with NATO.

Yeah, just love to see a brigade of US soldiers stationed near to the  Karelian Isthmus.

I would love to see Swedish army there, it's been far too long since we faced them on the isthmus.

Just don't send it to Poltava, Swedish army doesn't have a good track record there.

Fixed!

[Sheilbh]

I haven't had a proper night's sleep in days. The familiar East European scenery just drives home even further the proximity of this to my family and the ramifications of what's happening.

I can believe it

The Ukrainians are fighting back far more effective than I would have thought, or the Russians are far worse that I thought. Too bad that only Lithuania, Latvia and Poland sent them some Stingers, would have been nice if they would have been sent thousands.

From everything I've read from military people/specialists - Ukraine's forces are performing better than expected and far better than in 2014. Obviously Kyiv is very close to the Belarussian so those forces that won in Chernobyl are by the sounds of it in Kyiv now but it is, as in Kharkiv, looking like there is genuine urban fighting going on.

I think of a line from Shaun Walker - Guardian reporter - about the Snake Island moment where he said it was reminiscent of a particular story from WW2 in the Soviet Union and that it's extraordinary to see Russia almost replay it's great myths and stories from the Great Patriotic War, but this time as the aggressor. The Guardian also had a piece from a Ukrainian writer making a similar point:

There is a famous phrase, "4am Kyiv is bombed". Every Ukrainian and Russian kid knows it. That's how the announcement of the German bombardment of Kyiv in 1941 sounded.

And here we are: 24 February, 5am Kyiv is bombed by Russia.

But given all that that - and this goes to Putin really thinks Ukrainians are just brainwashed little Russians and they can break the spell of this "puppet regime" - it seems astonishing to me that Russia has, from what I can see, underestimated the fortitude and resistance of Ukrainian people.

On that note the Ukrainian government said yesterday that they'd distributed over 10,000 weapons to civilians in Kyiv - today the Ukrainian interior ministry has released an infographic on how to make a Molotov cocktail.

There's rumours that Russia is trying to present an ultimatum to Zelenskiy. Presumably he gets to live - I think a lot about that line "we know who they are and we'll bring them to justice" and US and UK intelligence of "kill lists" - maybe become President of a rump, disarmed West or East Ukraine if partition is the goal. I don't know if he'll accept it but I think almost regardless of that Ukraine is fighting and it looks increasingly likely that Russia's going to have to face urban warfare - and the people of those cities are going to face hell

I saw a journalist talking this morning about a friend of theirs who's only in his early 20s. They met at uni, he was educated in the UK - very liberal, cosmopolitan, "Western" youth. They messaged yesterday as the journalist landed to report and their friend explained that he was going yesterday afternoon to sign up or get weapons from the army.

That is a big deal. Sweden has had a policy of no alliances in order to be able to be neutral in the event of war. In every war in the last 100 years Sweden has declared itself neutral, except the winter war where we declared ourselves a non combatant in order to aid Finland. Apparently this war is the second exception. Now, it might be hyperbole and the regular humanitarian aid that we usually do, but if Sweden really sends military aid it's a massive policy change.

Good - and I'm glad the UK and France are giving military aid too apparently. Estonia also sending more military aid today - I imagine all the Baltics are and probably Poland too. Give them whatever they need.

And re. Italy being a bit of an issue within the EU - from polling conducted for the Munich Security Conference:

James Johnson
@jamesjohnson252
Do you think Russia is more of a threat or an ally to your country? (Share saying Russia is an ally minus share saying Russia is a threat)
UK: -31
Germany: -22
Canada: -21
US: -20
France: -13

Italy: +2

Data: @kekstcnc @MunSecConf

[Josquius]

German Bundeswehr has atrophied a lot since the 90s. Not just in headcount, but also in ready equipment. In recent years it was brought up again and again that outside the Afghanistan contingent there's not much material in good maintenance/repair or available at all. Politicians now say that the defense budget needs to be increased - maybe this crisis finally provides the much needed jolt (if way too late), but I believe it when I see it. When I served in 95/96, all males of a birth year were still called up. But 15 years later the force and budget had shrunk so much that not everyone was called up anymore, leading to questions regarding the fairness - some people having to serve and losing a year in their career plans while others didn't. The response in 2011 was not to increase conscriptions but to suspend them.

Hopefully attempts to rearm won't involve reintroducing conscription. That would be a massive backwards step.

[Duque de Bragança]

For those who care (?), Assad Jr. of Syria, states that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia is a correction of History.